chitownsportsfan

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 02:06 PM) It's possible, but it's extremely risky given the rigidity of the draft rules now. When Crow did it, it was essentially still an open market. For Rodon to ultimate push his sign date back two years is to hope to avoid injury and maintain velocity just to enter the draft at age 24, having lost all semblance of leverage, all for the ultimate upside of less than $2m of slot bonus from 3 to 1. Realistically, even in the very remote scenario where everything in the world goes right for him and he gets popped #1 at 24 in 2016, the team that picks him is going to get him for underslot anyway, because wtf else is he going to do at that point? Meanwhile, he would probably be accruing service time in the Majors by then if he'd just taken his $5m in 2014. The Sox are well positioned because of Sale/Cooper and their general success with developing pitchers to tell Boras and Rodon: "Ok you can not sign with us and go back to college or try some crazy Indy league, or you can sign with us for slot, work your ass off, and be on the Chris Sale plan. You'll be accruing service time by this time next year, so sign".

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 02:01 PM) Could he hold his guy out a year and pitch in an independent league? That would be crazy, but maybe Boras is crazy enough to try it. That would be a huge risk though and Boras could kiss his empire goodbye if it doesn't work.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 01:51 PM) Ultimately, if we draft Rodon, he'll end up signing with us for a little over slot value, IMO. He just doesn't have the leverage players used to have. He's already seen his stock drop over the course of a year, and even if he went back for his senior year and DIDN'T decline and DID stay healthy, he'd be re-entering the draft with less leverage than before since he'll be a senior. If they like Rodon the best, they should take him. +1, I just posted pretty much the same scenario.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 01:49 PM) Aiken Kolek/Rodon: Kolek much easier sign probably, Rodon quick mover but Borass might play games with us Jackson As has been said -- what "games" is Boras gonna play? He is hand cuffed under the new CBA. See last year, when Appel was taken #1 overall and Boras couldn't do anything to get him overslot: http://mlb.si.com/2013/06/20/mark-appel-as...top-pick-signs/ The worst thing that could happen with Rodon is he signs for like 5% over bonus. I don't think that's going to deter the Sox from taking him if he's a clear #1 on their board at that pick.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 01:39 PM) My order of preference (would probably put Jackson in there but sounds like we're really locked into a pitcher): Aiken Rodon Nola Kolek I kinda want Jackson. Assuming Anderson doesn't play at SS and is moved to the outfield we could have one of the best outfields in baseball in 4-5 years with Anderson/Jackson/Garcia. That said, I think for sure the Sox take one of the big 3 pitchers.

QUOTE (Charlie Haeger's Knuckles @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 01:32 PM) super original It's draft day and the Sox have the #3 pick. Cheer up bro. Not every post has to be a wet noodle.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 01:18 PM) Here's something interesting to consider with the draft... are there any family members of the front office or team in the draft? Casey Gillaspie is a late 1st-rounder so he's not a favor pick. Any obscure HS or college players we'll take in the lower rounds that are sons of people? Just curious if anyone knows. Kenny Williams' cousin's son twice removed on his mom's side is a 5-10" 160lb prospect outta San Poly Prep he's batting 200/230/330 against high schoolers but KW promises he's get high upside potential. Possible 40th round pick.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 01:23 PM) This core though to me is nowhere near the core they had in the early 90s with Thomas, Ventura, Guillen, One Dog, Raines, Cora, Karko, McDowell, Fernandez, Alvarez , Roberto Hernandez. Then they would sign rentals like Franco, DJ, Burks, even Tartabull was good his one season. Before he got ultra-conservate, even though that seemed to work out, Schueler did put up an impressive piece of work. Granted he started with a pretty nice core, but his additions, until he sent Black Jack packing, where usually really good. Don't forget Ray Durham. Some real stars and scrubs teams from that decade.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 12:13 AM) Advanced stats have been demonstrated to have way better predictive value than ERA People have a hard time understanding correlation and regression. They are really simple concepts that anyone that puts 30 minutes of reading into saber-metrics can grasp.

man all i can think about when i see puig talkign to himself up there is the video of him berating himself in spanish after his reckless driving arrest.

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 12:06 AM) But he doesn't and that is all that matters really no, it's not. It's luck. We don't want to include luck in projections if possible.

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 12:00 AM) Why? Well, there's a theory called DIPS and it's a long story after that. Let's just say he's pitching with a horse shoe up his rear end.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 11:54 PM) Petricka has earned that opportunity, as he's done nothing to make Robin not trust him. Well, with a 90.8% strand rate, a k/bb ratio of 1.1/1 and a bb/9 of almost 5 while maintaining a chris sale esque .28 hr/9 rate -- he's a ticking bomb that's gonna go poof sooner rather than later.

QUOTE (Bigsoxhurt35 @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 11:52 PM) No but it is for putting him in there when there's better options +1

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 11:51 PM) It's probably why his last team hated him. His ceiling is Erstad, if he's super lucky. He thinks he's a star. It's annoying. Uh, if eaton has Erstad's career as his prime years a Sox, I don't care of he gives the suck it motion to every fan at the Cell before he bats.

don't like putnam here, not one bit.

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 11:48 PM) : : : As a 5-8 dude myself, who played pretty high baseball for a bit you sure as s*** heard my coach say "...you wannt get noticed at your size you play hard and bring energy". There is a heavy scouting bias against small guys in baseball, even though being tall isn't that much of an advantage, if any.

man Jose sure can look bad at times.

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 11:45 PM) Yea if you're 5-8 and playing in MLB you better have a chip on your shoulder and play hard with energy. It's just the reality of it.

QUOTE (Baron @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 11:40 PM) He will be the less money guy...unfortunately I dont think he is going to be anywhere near as good as these top 3 guys could be. Oh and btw I hope his parents kicked the crap out of his manager for abusing his arm the other day. the money...doesn't matter, not anymore. They are going to spend all their bonus money and they have already been quoted as saying anyone's sign-ability won't be a big factor at #3. That's the reality of the new CBA for draftees and teams. It's team friendly as s*** now, these guys have no leverage, especially Rodon.

wow, crushed right at him, thank god

QUOTE (Baron @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 11:36 PM) Nola's upside is not high enough to draft him top 3. He'll probably be one of the first to the majors. My gut feeling is Rodon falls to the Sox and the take the Boras client, easily getting him to sign for slot after saying "you'll be on the chris sale plan, you hold up your end of the bargain".

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 11:36 PM) I'm not sure how we got to Petricka being our 7th inning guy.... I know Webb walks a lot but you would think he would be there before Petricka was.. Now back to back walks. Yep, as I was saying upthread, PITCH WEBB ROBIN. FFS Petricka is smoke and mirrors with zero upside long term. Webb actually has decent stuff.

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 11:29 PM) His ERA is around 6... That is awful for someone who comes out to get 1 or 2 lefties out blame robin, he's faced almost as many rhb as lhb. Just another data point against ventura. wOBA of .273 against lefties for downs, .371 for righties.

don't look now but Scott Downs has been mildy effective for a month or so.