chitownsportsfan

And what's the point? I just said I'm not arguing that pitchers aren't at their best during spring training; I'm arguing that Jenks is beyond just "getting back into shape", he hasn't been "marginally bad", he's been terrible. Furthermore, he "terribleness" is even more concerning because he's still sucking a week before camp breaks. I think a good analogy is the 3rd preseason game in FB. Sure, it's still preseason, but you don't want the 1st unit to stink it up in the 1st half. Is spring training mostly meaningless: of course. Are pitchers less than 100% velocity and control wise: of course. I'm a worried about Jenks: of course--why shouldn't I be? Every other pitcher on the Sox (other than my new Timo--Thornton) that is expected to make the roster has shown me something good--Jenks hasn't at all.

Well BMAC barely tops 91 on a good day. Buehrle I would agree, he usually is around 89-90 with the heater. However, Buehrle hasn't been getting hammered so far, and he's a "finesse" guy. My point isn't so much that velocity drops aren't normal for spring training, in fact, I'm not saying that at all. What I am saying is that it's particulary alarming that a power pitcher comes into camp with a 5mph drop on his heater. It's even more alarming when that guy cant' find the play with his only other + pitch. Spring training my not mean much, but I'd at least like to see a few good outings from Jenks, or anyone on the staff. Every other picher, (other than Thornton) that is projected to make the roster has had their moments. Jenks has been uniformly bad all spring, and it's not like he's getting "unlucky"--he's just throwing meat.

I'd be pissed.

Yea, well let me rephrase the the question: What Sox pitcher is still pitching 4-5 mph below their velocity from last year 8 days until the season starts?

No. Dye bats 5th, Thome 3rd--for every reason SSH mentioned. I like that he even said "optimize". Did you see that work that BTBS did on lineup optimzation SSH? Rather interesting stuff. I'm currently trying their findings out in my simulated baseball league online. I tell you, it pains me every time I see my C- contact, C+ power guy come up in the 3 hole. However, I'm beating my expected RC numbers by a healthy margin, so I'm going to stick with it.

What other Sox pitcher that was on the team last year and is reported healthy has experienced a drop off in velocity of 4-5 mph? Nobody. There are only 8 days until the season starts. It's time for Jenks to get his act together. My guess is that Jenks didn't pick up a baseball all winter. He should have been playing long toss at least once a week. Compounding the problem, he's gained another 10lbs at least. He's not going to magically regain all his stuff after a winter of inactivity. Jenks saw the good life last year, and now he's forgotten how hard he had to work to get there. My own life has been peppered with such incidents, I'm not saying Jenks is a bad person--just that he might not be cut from the cloth that all great players all.

Tell me you're kidding? Neal Cotts is what, 25 years old? He's shown incredible K/B numbers in the minors, and now is doing the same thing in the majors. Thornton is 29 years old, and has never had a good season above A ball. Cotts is nothing like Thornton. Thorton is possibly the worst left handed pitcher in MLB. Cotts is one of the best.

It just hit me...Ozzie and KW have ordered Thorton to get shellacked so that he passes through waivers! Yes, I love my conspirary theories.

Well, I'd contend their mostly meaningless, but you'd at least like to see the velocity and control there for your pitchers. Hitters take longer to get into the groove, this is well known and major reason it's suggested we take their results with a grain of salt, but this time of year pitchers should be working on getting their pitchers over and increasing their velocity--I really don't care if they give up a few hits in the process. However, Jenks has shown that he's not only lost velocity, but that he can't throw his curveball for a consistent strike. I can't complain about the Iguchi situation, I've wanted him at 2nd all offseason. If Ozzie wants to use some spring training stats to justify this one, hell, I'm not going to say otherwise

Yea, but I'd rather have a half guess than a guess.

Alas, "statheads" write poorly researched articles as well. Most statheads have the White Sox winning the central or coming in 2nd to the Indians. Most statheads think Minnesota's club is pretty mediocre. I wouldn't get your undies in a bunch over this article, although I'm sure some of you salivate at any "stathead" dissing the Sox. He's clearly cut from half the cloth of the BP guys--all the arrogance and none of the smarts. Anytime a "stathead" writes an argument and their aren't any stats, well that's just laziness.

I'm scared for nearby objects the first time Thornton blows an important game.

Well, the thing is that that "out on a ball in play" is exclusive from any "moving over" of the runners. Essentially, it's worse than a strikout because a runner might get got in a pickle from 3rd to home or 2nd to 3rd. That's the only logic I can think of for that. Any other ideas?

Good point Shaftr, I think we had this debate over on SSS a few weeks ago. The Pods/Lee trade cannot be evaluated in isolation. That is, the trade was really part of a larger organizational emphasis on defense and a spreading out of resources. I'd take Lee over Pods anyday of the week, twice on doubleheader days. However Pods was an adequate piece on a world championship team, nothing wrong with that. I also have no doubt that if the Sox had had the money to still sign Vizcaino and Iguchi and Dye with Lee in LF, then they still would have won at least 99 games and the World Series--everything else being equal outside of Lee and Pods' 2005 stats.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...e-outs-article/ If you're still not convinced, Google "productive outs", there are hours of reading material proving their relative worthlessness to winning baseball.

Yea, I just realized all those numbers were from 2004 anyway, the point stands, but not as well. Dang Google and ESPN teaming up against me. Who knew the string, "Productive outs 2005" would produce the 2004 stats...

Defense has been widely regarded as a major reason the Sox were so good at preventing runs in 2005, it's been discussed even by the arrogant Baseball Prospectus, which even took the extremely rare step for them of admitting they were wrong. The Sox converted a higher percentage of balls in play into outs then every team except Oakland. That's a good thing. However, the Sox were 20th in "productive outs" http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/productive?tp=team The top 3 teams in "productive outs" were Washington, Colorado, and Pitsburgh. In fact, the winning percentage of the bottom 1/3 in productive outs is much higher than the top 1/3. Productive outs is about the last thing I'd look at to see how well a team performed. It's almost meaningless.

RME JICO--you're my hero! I didn't even have to dig through the archives of THT's to prove my point. I thought those articles were very fair, they concluded that speed does make the pitcher a little more loose--to the tune of 2 runs a year--that's rather yawnworthy in my book. Give me two LF'ers, all things being equal, power hitting, contact hitting, arm, and I'll take the faster guy every time. Speed has a place in baseball no doubt. But its place is relatively unimportant compared to the other major American team sports.

For the sake of Hermie I hope that a) he either pitches pain-free without the shots, or B) he realizes that his future healthy depends on not ruining his back when he's 33. He's a guy that the cliche, "gets by on grit" applies to fairly well. I wish him the best.

It's not, not in the grand scheme of things. Why can't people just accept that historical data that shows there are plenty of things more important than base stealing for creating runs--like OBP and SLG. It's not being arrogant; it's being reasonable. No stat head is going to tell Scottie Pods to not attempt to steal if he can swipe at an 80% clip, but they are going to ask the leadoff hitter to get on base more, and to throw in some doubles and HR every once and awile--something he doesn't really do well at all. Scottie Pods is an average major league LF in his good seasons, nothing more, nothing less. However, compared to stonehands and lead footed Carlos Lee, he fit into the Sox's idea for better defense, which looks like a smart move in hindsight. I think their analysis of last year's offseason was spot on. And I think their analysis of this off-season is better than 95% of the offseason reviews you will see online or elsewhere. I'm not sure about Boston or the Yankees being ahead of the Sox, so I agree with that. But the Dodgers had a very good offseason, as did the A's, I'd put the Sox 2 and Oakland 2a, but IMO, the Dodgers, from a purely "how many more wins this year" standpoint did the best job, helped by the fact that they had a lot longer to go to get to the playoffs then the Sox and A's.

I have faith in Cooper to improve any pitcher he handles based on his proven track record. However, it's one thing to work with a guy over the winter, it's another thing to work with him 12 days before the season starts. The first lead Thortnon blows will have us all clamoring for Marte and Viz, which is sad. How does a bullpen go from a position of strength to the biggest weakness in a month? At the top the bullpen still looks strong with Jenks and Cotts, but it's the middle guys that are looking real shaky right now for those 6th and 7th innings where the Sox are in a tight game.

CWWKeith posted this over at SSS: Also, the Cheat raved about his performance today as well. Seems like if Lumpy can stay healthy he'll be a top of the rotation starter. In a farm system mostly empty of anything, this is great news. It's encouraging to see him throwing a consistnent 92+ heater that's dancing, while displaying good control as well.

I agree that this trade makes little sense for the Sox and much more for the Mariners. The stakes are so low however that there isn't much risk for either side, however the Mariners get a guy likely to make their club, and the Sox got a guy likely to be pumping gas come April 1st. I thought the Marlins were showing interest in Borchard? Surely they have someone better Thornton laying around... Doesn't sound like there was any market for Borchard, or KW failed to create one.

Hahahaa, only 5 pages until someone suggested this means Sweeney might make the roster. We should put the "Does this mean Sweeney makes team post" over/under at 5 on all threads.

Yea, but only 'cause Japan might win the WBC without him. Spring Training is meaningless. A professional like the Gooch will worry if his OPS is .640 in late June. I'd start worrying too at that point. Until then, I"ll just hope he stays healthy in the cactus league.