chitownsportsfan

QUOTE (LDF @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 01:55 PM) looking at the wish list here, I really can not fathom where some of these ideas are coming from. T. Thompson will net us nothing, until he can prove he a viable player. A. Dun is a great team player, but unless someone needs a lh hitter for the playoff, he will net us next to nothing. I personally think we may do the trade as a favor to him. Carroll, a good story for a hard luck / injury laiden player, what will he net us? we need to see him pitch more with more success before we start using him in any wish list. Lindstrom and De Aza are the only ones that we may get something of value, but it will be based on their success in the coming months. another player may be Viciedo, that is if he revert back to his batting stats. You're right, nobody is going to give up anything above a C level prospect for Dunn, Downs, Lindstrom. Alexei however and De Aza could possibly net a top 10 org guy, especially Alexei as he probably has a few 2-3 WAR type seasons left at SS, even if he's declining. With the relative log jam the Sox have in the minors up the middle Ramirez is probably a likely trade candidate, given the return he could net is higher than most of the other tradeable Sox. I'm assuming they aren't going to trade Gillaspie or Viciedo, given their contracts, age and current production. You'd be hard pressed to get fair value back for either. As for Dunn, I'd be very happy if the Sox could unload him in early July for a lottery ticket and pro-rated salary relief, which would be around 5-6 million I believe. If he continues to hit around an 900 OPS, that shouldn't be a problem, but that's a big if. Nobody wants the 220/330/450 version of Adam Dunn, not at his salary, even if it's only a rental.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 01:50 PM) Another way to look at the luck component: Given his batted ball stats, is he getting lucky on top of that? He's got 75 ABs, of which 32.6% are LD, 47.8% are GB and 19.6% are FB. Given the avg associated with each of those numbers, how many hits would we expect T-Flow to have? (.714*.326*75)+(.238*.478*75)+(.139*.196*75) = 28.033 hits How many hits does Tyler Flowers have? 28. EDIT: Statement retracted. I didn't subtract his K's. He should have 17 hits. He's super lucky We have a better tool called xBABIP that the HBTs introduced a few years ago. It's a regression of the major components of BABIP and includes speed, line drives, infield popups, strikeouts, etc. Plugging in Tyler's stats, available at Fangraphs, his xBABIP is .357 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key...NkS1ZDWUE#gid=0 Still pretty damn good, but not anywhere near .600 He's going to come down to reality, but if he keeps up his current hitting reality is going to be 270/310/400, and that's a 2-3 WAR catcher, not a replacement level catcher like he's been.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 25, 2014 -> 08:23 PM) How is Robin actively losing this game? He's managing this game like it's game 7 of the world series instead of just letting Johnon eat it. Now, we probably still won't win this game, and the pen will be shot for the rest of the series.

QUOTE (Bigsoxhurt35 @ Apr 25, 2014 -> 08:23 PM) Scoreless inning wow Even the scoreless frames take 20 minutes with this staff.

QUOTE (Capn12 @ Apr 25, 2014 -> 08:19 PM) Yeah, this is MUCH better than making Erik Johnson eat innings and walk guys. Lets burn them all up, with no guy in the rotation currently who can eat innings. Robin's awful. On the flip side, Hahn can't be watching this constant stupidity and thinking it's a good idea to keep him around when the team is ready to contend. YOu can't have your manager actively losing you games, and Robin is that bad right now. Furthermore, he doesn't seem to be learning. This is his 3rd damn year, no more excuses.

good thing robin thought it would be a good idea to burn the pen tonight, we'll be f***ed all series now.

What sort of message does it send to the team when a guy like Beckham comes up and immediately starts the first two games, including after an 0-4 3k performance? It's a s*** message. God, why are we "showcasing" a guy the entire league knows sucks?

Jesus christ robin manages like it's f***ing game 7 of the world series every single game. Just let him f***ing take it for the team. who knows he gets an out you might get 2 more innings out of him.

QUOTE (Bigsoxhurt35 @ Apr 25, 2014 -> 07:53 PM) Johnson needs to go back to AAA And who is coming up? Come on, think a little. It's better to get him MLB experience in a throwaway year. Just buckle up, it's going to be this way all year.

QUOTE (fathom @ Apr 25, 2014 -> 07:51 PM) Ha, keep throwing 90 mph with no movement. Another guy on the roster that should be in the minors. I don't know where these reports of him around 92-94 came from. He throws 89-92 consistantly, and if he can't command his breaking stuff he's going to get shelled, as we see.

god damnit

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Apr 25, 2014 -> 07:35 PM) Some of these shifts piss me off. You can't do it to the best hitters that can hit anywhere. Stop trying to be cute with the shifts Eh, it's playing the odds, you get burnt sometimes, but you get burnt plenty when you don't shift as well. I like it, it's nice to be at the forefront of something for once.

Johnson looks good, but stop nibbling. If you're throwing 90-92 on the fastball and your slider is breaking like that, attack the hitters.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 25, 2014 -> 01:25 PM) I think the change in his approach to pitches on the outer half is a big reason he is seeing a much higher contact rate. He had gotten extremely pull happy in previous years, where he would try to yank those outerhalf pitches to LF. Now he is swinging to those pitches and punching them into RCF, very similar to what we are seeing out of Flowers. Sure there will be some regression after pitchers make an adjustment, but I think both end up putting up much better numbers this year because of the mental and physical changes in their approaches. Master of the obvious here, but the key will be how he reacts to a slump. Will he have the discipline to remain patient when he's not seeing the ball this well? Will he continue to use all fields after a couple line drives fall into mitts? We'll see, but it's pretty exciting what he's done so far, the most reason for optimism since around 2011 for him. Also, he's completely healthy, knock on wood, for the first time a while.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 25, 2014 -> 01:09 PM) I'm not calibrated on that number...is that actually good or is that just good relative to what he was doing before? fangraphs has a helpful link up that shows the historical league average for the past decade or so: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/plate-discipline/ 30% is league average...Viciedo was at an awful 42.5% last year, and was trending in the wrong direction entirely, as that was up from 36% and 40% in '11 and '12. So, for him to now get back down to 34% is pretty impressive. Usually these numbers start to normalize around 100 PA so he's onto something here. If he's still at around 34% by July you can probably say this is a new, improved Viciedo. Even with his poor defense, he's been worth .7fWAR this year, and hell, I'll take that. He's a guy that has to rake around 280/330/450 to have value as an everyday player, so even if he regresses quite a bit he has some margin. If he finishes with that line in around 500 PA I'll be thrilled and that should give him 2-3 WAR depending on how bad his defense is. Offense is way down, even at the corner spots. A 780 OPS goes a lot further than it used to. edit: ht to Eminor.

Lol, Robin thinks Webb is his long guy. Robin is too clueless to realize Webb should close.

it's crazy how this team is still putting up runs with all the injuries, they have every excuse just to rollover with so many regulars out of the lineup but instead they continue to hit. Leury Garcia is growing on a me a bit. Obviously he's not a guy you want starting all the time but as a bench player he could be pretty valuable. flowers is going to be back down to 220 pretty quickly.

abreu seems a pretty quick study at 1b, he played those two balls nicely.

Our staff sure can throw a 58 footer with the best of 'em. Feel sorry for Tyler and Nieto.

so, Viciedo is smoking the ball, all sorts of pitches too, he might have actually turned a corner. It was always a little puzzling why a guy with such great bat speed could only hit 250.

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Apr 23, 2014 -> 07:01 PM) Rienzo is the man! amazing what happens when you can get ahead in the count the majority of the time.

I'm going to miss 26-32 year old Alexie, when he slows down in a couple years. Watching him play SS is a lot of fun, what a cannon he has when he wants to gun it.

god we are dumb

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 23, 2014 -> 06:42 PM) That is what Danks brings. He's a nice 4th OF, it's too bad he's now playing every day. f***ing injuries.

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Apr 23, 2014 -> 06:38 PM) First move, guess wronged. I like the aggressiveness on the base path. that was stupidity.