Balta1701

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 28, 2014 -> 11:53 AM) That's just a marginal improvement over two positions, and when you consider the allocation of resources (let's say $30 million minimum for Headley, if not $40-50), doesn't make a whole lotta sense. If you're going to do that, you should really double down and spend another $20-30 million on an MVP caliber player in Sandoval (or even Hanley Ramirez) and try to get him straightened out offensively when paired with the strength and conditioning guys/Hermie. You've just run into my problem with most of the moves that people have suggested in the free agent market - they're high-cost, marginal improvements. Upgrade at 3b? Great. High-cost, marginal improvement. Upgrade rotation? High-cost, Marginal improvement. Upgrade at catcher? High cost, marginal improvement. Right now we've got a corner OF slot where it seems like we can make more than a marginal improvement, but that's it, and there's a chance Semien might be moved to one of those spots too.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Aug 28, 2014 -> 11:50 AM) I was under the impression that the areas closest to Russia were very much pro-Russia over Ukraine. Maybe they don't take the entire country, but they can take the part that considers itself Russian, just like Crimea. If that's not the end game, what's the point of fighting along side the rebels in Ukranian territory? It's a big difference. These areas aren't "Just like Crimea". Ethnic russians are a majority in Crimea and an overwhelming majority in Sevastopol. Ethnic Russians are a minority in pretty much every other city/area. The area of the heaviest fighting right now, Donetsk, ethnic russians are a 40% minority. For the Russians to take that part, they're taking on a substantial ethnic majority that won't want to be in Russia.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 28, 2014 -> 11:47 AM) Why? Conor's had a Top 30-40 (all of MLB) OPS (despite the lack of homers) for pretty much the entire season. What about Headley says he's going to rebound playing next year in the AL? Certainly not his statistics in NY, where he should be putting up at least a 750ish OPS. It makes no sense to bring in a guy that's going to get $8-10 million per year and already around that magical 30 year old mark where players now are declining without the PEDS to further their careers. Victor Martinez is one of the few exceptions that comes to mind. You wrote all this and didn't mention a thing about "defense".

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 28, 2014 -> 11:44 AM) Fortunately, just like the rest of us, you are just an poster on the internets, and no one really has to convince you of anything when it comes to White Sox player moves. But when people say that the White Sox are going to spend more than that, I think that's a pretty solid case that there's a $35 million-ish ceiling to what they have to play with this year and they might stay well under it. It's like the person who suggested Delmon Young. As you said, it's just a post on the internet, but the odds of the Chairman spending money on a person who ranted about the f***ing Jews seem low to me.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 28, 2014 -> 11:28 AM) So JR was lying when he said the team will make money this year? And Hahn is lying when he said he was going to spend some money this offseason if his targets are available? The White Sox's committed payroll next year is $60 million assuming they offer arb to 3 guys and cut loose Viciedo and De Aza. IMO, the Sox's break-even point next year is probably around $100 million, maybe just under it depending on where they wind up in the draft. I don't know how Abreu's signing bonus works out but that is real money that fits somewhere on the list. The reason the team will be profitable this year is that they cut back on the payroll to under $85 million, leaving them some room under the $105 million-ish break even point. That's a 33% payroll decrease compared to last year. They should make money at that level. The Sox have money to spend this offseason, and I think the limit is about $30 million. That doesn't leave a lot of money if there is a single big signing. There's room for 1 and some small pieces alongside, but you do have to ask yourself whether that's the right move this year. Personally, I remain unconvinced that there is any set of moves the White Sox could make for $30 million-ish that would put this team in the playoffs next year, and therefore I hesitate on spending it. If there were a trade that either clears Danks's salary or fills one of the major needs of this team without significantly depleting that money, then I could be convinced that a single big signing and a few bullpen pieces does make this a playoff contender. However, at this time, I'm focusing solely on the free agent side of things.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 28, 2014 -> 11:23 AM) Not to mention their expenses have gone up a lot this year with the much higher amateur spending. The Sox started with a 2013 payroll of about $120 million, moved around $10 million out of the way during the season, and lost $5 million as a franchise on the year based on the Forbes numbers. So $105 million would have been the maximum, break-even point that year. This year, they've spent an extra $8 million on amateur signings and have had revenues erode probably by >$5 million again. They've got $20 million in additional TV money, but that basically is eaten up by the revenue erosion and the fact that money was lost last year. It seems like $100 million is pretty close to a hard cap for this team, and it shouldn't be surprising if they're significantly under that, especially coming off a year when Forbes has them losing money.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Aug 28, 2014 -> 11:24 AM) More than just the difficulty of holding all of Ukraine, they'd also completely isolate themselves from most of the world economy if they did that. Their economy is already pretty terrible, and the sanctions over Crimea haven't helped. Russia was able to take Crimea and actually have a reasonable claim to it that helped limit the violence. Right now, it's the Ukranian army fighting a resistance in the areas closest to Russia where there is a Russian speaking population, but those areas would be divided even if Russia tried to take them over. If Russia invades, they'll wind up both fighting the Ukranian army for the territory and turning the portions of the local population who are Ukranian into fighters against Russia.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 28, 2014 -> 11:11 AM) Incorrect. The TV contract put a healthy bump on White Sox revenues. If the White Sox's revenues this year are $5 million less than the debacle last year, which is more than reasonable given the erosion at the gate I just discussed, then the White Sox's revenues including that TV deal are less than they were in 2012 without it based on the Forbes-reported revenue numbers. Forbes showed White Sox revenues dropping by about $15 million in 2012-2013 and the team losing money in 2013. $20 million would basically just plug that gap if everything else stayed constant. Everything else has not stayed constant.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 28, 2014 -> 11:05 AM) Fastball average velocity by year 2010 95.5 2011 95.2 2012 94.7 2013 94.6 2014 93.8 Change up has gone from 86.7 to 86.6 over the same time frame. Not good when the difference between your fastball and change is getting smaller. He threw a change?

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Aug 28, 2014 -> 10:55 AM) I was wondering the same thing. Putin could take Ukraine in a matter of weeks I would guess. So if he really wanted it, why not just go for it? The international community is going to condemn him and then forget about it a week later. Because Ukraine has a population 1.5x the size of Iraq and holding Iraq was not exactly easy for a much more advanced military?

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 10:12 PM) 1,000 tickets a game is worth how much exactly? And how has our average ticket price changed year over year? Also, how much extra money did we spend on the draft and amateur international free agents in 2014 vs. 2013? Average ticket price dropped dramatically before 2013 when ticket prices were lowered & was pretty steady this year. 1000 tickets a game *26.05/ticket * 81 regular season games is $2 million in revenue just with that. Then add in all the other things not being paid for, and you're at $3 million+ drop in gate revenues so far this year, and that is likely to accelerate in September.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 09:32 PM) We're talking about next year? That $20M will still be there. But we're also down over 1000 tickets per game sold, again, and that's prior to the weak numbers that appear in September. Every reason to believe that revenues outside of that $20 million have continued to decline. At best, we might be using that $20 million to tread water in revenue, and again, the team was estimated to lose money last year. If they are going to bump payroll back up to $100 million, then we better either be certain we can put a winning team on the field and reverse those trends, or we better be ready for the Sox to go back to being hugely under-slot on the draft and international spending to pay for it.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 09:10 PM) Do you have access to their financials? How do you know how much erosion there has been to their revenue? I know they are now receiving $20M/year from the MLB TV deal. I also know they spent over $100M in 7 of the past 8 seasons prior to 2014. Furthermore, they made a serious f***ing offer for Tanaka. Just because they decided to cut back on payroll a bit doesn't mean it was due to a lack of revenue. We all knew this was a transitional year and that they weren't going to spend just to spend. I have no doubt we could have gone into this year with a much higher payroll if Hahn wanted to. Next year should be no different, except that it sounds like Rick thinks we're much closer to being serious competitors. Based on the Forbes numbers, the White Sox this year were down $15 million in revenue from previous years (and had the 2nd worst TV ratings in baseball last year). Forbes also had the team losing money last year.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 08:45 PM) Interesting that both teams that had the biggest trades at the deadline have lost first place since the trade. They also both traded away OF starters.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 08:42 PM) I still don't know where this $30M talk comes from. We have $46M in salary commitments for next year and only a handful of arbitration eligible players likely to be back. There is no reason we can't afford $100M+ payroll if we so choose. That gives us a good $45M to $50M to work with this offseason depending on which arbitration guys we decide to bring back next year. The problem won't be a lack of money, it will be a lack of quality options to spend it on. We're at $46 million in commitments right now. Even assuming that we only offer arbitration to guys like Jones and Flowers, non-tendering Viciedo and De Aza, we're still talking about around $10 million, maybe a few million less, for the couple guys we would actually offer. Then, filling out the majority of a roster with minimum salary guys is still going to push another $7-8 million assuming guys like Gillaspie get small raises. That puts us close to $60 million as a good starting point. $30 million in spending would push us beyond this year's payroll, and we also don't know how Abreu's signing bonus is being dealt with. We could afford a $100 million payroll potentially but with the erosion in revenue over the last couple years, I doubt we see that any time soon.

By the way, since Delmon Young got brought up, it's worth remembering why Delmon Young will never, ever play for the Chicago White Sox.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 06:18 PM) It's another reason I'm all for moving Danks. That's another 14M. If it could be done then I suddenly become strongly in favor of adding an expensive starting pitcher. I don't believe it can be done, especially not in the offseason when teams have FA options available. I was hoping there'd be a chance at the trade deadline where a team would take him on to help satisfy a need right now without having to give anything back, maybe with the Sox chipping in a tad bit of money, but either we weren't willing or more likely we weren't able to do that.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 04:45 PM) I sure hope that more than 30M is available. QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 05:05 PM) Me too. 60M sounds nice. That leaves me thinking that there's probably some money for an extension and probably about $30 million to spend. Don't forget we also spent a ton on the draft and international signing periods this year as well. Including paying the overage penalty on the draft.

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 04:19 PM) With the money coming off the books, it's almost guaranteed we will spend money somewhere, I don't think the guys I am proposing is considered asking for the moon, considering it's 1 starter, 2 bullpen arms, part time DH, and 2 bench players who could be sourced from the farm. I don't think that does it alone. 2 bullpen arms, one of whom is a closing candidate, would IMO have pushed us up to an adequate bullpen this year but it wouldn't have been above average. That'd be maybe 4 decent relievers in the pen, the 2 FA signees, Putnam, and Petricka. Better than this year but still missing a lot of parts. Then you still have a major hole at LF, a DH spot only filled part time, a weak catcher, an OF where 2 guys regularly get hurt and the backups are Sierra and Danks, and an IF where one guy we are iffy about whether to believe in what he's done this season and where the 2b is a rookie. You're not selling me very well on being able to do this for the $30 mil you suggested we might have available.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 04:08 PM) That's actually not out of the realm of possibility. In the 2004 offseason leading to 2005 - we brought in 8 new players via trades and free agency... if my memory serves me correct. Hanh's real opportunity to shine begins this off season and I've got faith that it's going to be a huge time for our franchise. If the White Sox pull off something via trade that significantly improves this team it could definitely change the calculus, but as it stands right now I don't believe this team could be turned into a competitive team next year via free agency.

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 03:53 PM) That just proves that you can't look at WAR by itself, because on paper, Young is a +1 WAR player and Dunn is at 0 WAR. The Red Sox, for instance, has a higher team WAR than the Yankees, but they are 11 games worse. Regardless of WAR, I like the prospects of Delmon Young at DH because he historically does very well vs lefties, and you can have him for cheap. Platoon him with Wilkins or whoever, we should have solid offense and also defensive flexibility compared to just Dunn and Konerko, at a fraction of the cost. Romo is having a bad season, but is historically a 1+ WAR player, I think this is the time to get him for cheap. Generally if you spend $5 mil+ for a reliever, you'd expect quality one. I am also underestimating the improvement the collective group of Eaton, Garcia, Sanchez, and Semien is going to make, but you get the point. If we can get a #2 or 3 starter, a couple of quality bullpen arms, solidify our bench, and the young guys take a step forward next year, there's no reason this team can't compete next year. Basically just right there it looks like you're talking about 5+ different free agent signings led by a top of the rotation starter. Do you see why this is getting really rough? And just the guys you listed right there don't include the DH you want and that leaves Viciedo/De Aza as a weakness in the corner OF.

Mysterious Sliding Stones of Racetrack Playa in Death Valley explained.

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 02:38 PM) I think WAR is a nice tool to evaluate an individual player, but I don't think it directly correlates to actual wins. But if you want to measure next year's potential team by WAR, we can Replacing Carrol with Shields = +3 WAR Replacing blackholes in bullpen with let's say Andrew Miller and Sergio Romo = +3 WAR Replacing Dunn (0 WAR) with league average DH, let's say Delmon Young = +1 WAR Replacing Leury Garcia, Paul Konerko (- 2 WAR) with let's say Bonifacio or Saladio and Wilkins = +2 WAR (assuming they will be 0 WAR players) Having a full year of Sanchez, Eaton, Avi, Semien, over Beckham, De Aza, and Viciedo, I am projecting + 1.5 WAR This currently a 18.5 WAR team according to Fangraphs, + 11.5 WAR increase, will put us ahead of teams like the Braves, Cardinals, Brewers, and Mariners. Worth noting a couple instant problems. Delmon Young has only 200 plate appearances this season, and Adam Dunn is already an above average DH offensively. The reason Young is worth more in WAR than Dunn is that Dunn is a slightly worse fielder. He's also been worse than Dunn the last 2 seasons. Decent chance if you gave him 400+ PA's as your DH that you're talking about a negative value player there as well. Sergio Romo + Andrew Miller this year = 1.4 WAR, not 3.

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 01:54 PM) My original premise is I believe Hahn should pull the trigger this off season and turn this team into a playoff contender, and I believe it doesn't require a complete overhaul. Though I believe a solid number 2 starter, i.e. Jame Shields, is a must (I still believe Q is more of a 3 than 2). If our goal is to be competitive, we can't center our roster moves around when or how exactly to bring up Rodon. If we believe he's ready to start next year, then maybe we do not need to sign a starter. However, if he needs some fine tuning in the minors, then yes, this team absolutely needs to bring in a guy like Shields. We will bring up Rodon when he's ready and when there is a need for him on the team. And as I said, I think it's highly likely we will be able to insert him into the rotation one way or another. And if he isn't ready to start next year and we do not have a open spot for him mid season, I am completely fine with leaving him down in the minors until September and bring him up to fortify our bullpen for a playoff run. If we want to compete next year, we can't save a roster spot for Rodon and wait till he's ready to take it. The only way it makes sense to me to go after a guy like Shields, especially given his age, is if John Danks is cleared out of the rotation or there is some other trade that clears a spot. I continue to say that spending $15 million+ on the upgrade from Noesi to Shields is a drop in the bucket move with as many other issues as this team has. It picks up ~2 WAR. This team is >> 2 WAR from being competitive for a playoff spot.

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Aug 27, 2014 -> 01:32 PM) It's not a stretch to imagine Noesi struggling next year. I wouldn't also bank on the other 4 starters staying healthy the entire year, especially Sale. That's fine. But you can't rely on those things to happen in order to clear Rodon a rotation spot unless you're willing to keep him in the minors the whole year if they don't happen. If Noesi has a solid start and shows he's learning how to be a better starter, do you keep Rodon in AAA the full year? If Sale doesn't get hurt, do you keep Rodon in AAA the whole year? If the goal is for Rodon to enter the rotation you can't have him in a place where you're counting on one of those things to happen. Those issues are an argument that we should have a backup plan other than Rodon if the goal is for him to be in the big leagues early next season.