Balta1701

QUOTE (MexSoxFan#1 @ Jan 5, 2013 -> 03:00 PM) NFL playoffs predictions...I would love Cincy to beat the Texans but it ain't happening. GB beats Minny. Got the Ravens over the Colts and Seattle beating Wash. Not sure I can disagree, but when I thought about those same names, I felt like I was filling out a tourney bracket and putting all the #1 seeds in the final four. That's how it's supposed to turn out based on the records...which makes me think there has to be a surprise buried in there.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Jan 5, 2013 -> 01:47 PM) What about the Verducci effect on Sale that Ginger Kid brought up? I've been mentioning it the entire offseason as a worry, maybe more so for Quintana than for him. But there's balance here too...we have a couple Verducci effect worry guys, but we also have Danks coming back to hopefully pick up some slack. For the team to be 4 games better in the rotation, basically we need Cooper to be able to maneuver these guys through the Verducci effect, have Sale pitch 20 more innings, and go from Danks giving us his 0 wins that he gave last year to the 3 wins he would give in a typical season. Danks's 2 best seasons were 5 and 4 wins, his 2 non-injured seasons were 3 win seasons, his injured season last year he effectively contributed nothing. If Danks can come back and give a middle of the road year for Danks, that adds 3 wins to the rotation right there. So getting to 90 wins, therefore, isn't all that hard. There's 4 easy wins you can get from the rotation right there. In terms of keeping us at 85 wins, those 3 extra wins could easily offset some Verducci effecting on Sale and Quintana. And yes, maybe the offense is worse, but if the bullpen is better, that offsets it. What you need for this team to be 15 games worse starts with Danks not being a contributor at all, and then basically involves Sale and Peavy giving you absolutely nothing. If those 3 guys got hurt, then you're talking about the rotation being 8 wins worse. Thus, I can only conclude that if you think it's more likely that this team will be 15 games worse next year than 5 games better...you have a plan to assassinate the starting rotation.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Jan 5, 2013 -> 01:18 PM) I'm assuming improvement from the pen. And yet somehow you say that it's more likely that this team will be 15 games worse than 5 games better. I guess the only thing I can take from this is that you're planning to assassinate the entire starting pitching staff.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Jan 5, 2013 -> 01:06 PM) Sale and Peavy's workloads last year are reason's for pause when thinking this team can win 90 games as well as Konerko's second half. In my opinion for the Sox to have a chance to contend, Sale and Peavy have to equal last year's performances and Danks has to have a career best season as I believe the offense is likely to regress. I have a difficult time seeing that happening. Great. You did exactly what I just said. You listed a couple of the possible bad things that could happen...assumed that they were very likely to do so, and then assumed that nothing else would go right to offset those things. No improvement from the bullpen, no improvement from the other starters thanks to additional rotation depth, no help from Quintana being there, no help from better defense at 3b, etc. List the bad things, assume they'll happen, and assert that none of the possible good things that could offset them will happen. You just repeated the script I laid out.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 5, 2013 -> 12:29 PM) Of course it is. Who said otherwise? I was just pointing out that it is a benefit cut for FUTURE benefits, as opposed to taking cash out of the economy NOW. You're stretching the definition of "Future" a lot. That'd be a benefit cut starting next year (as well as a middle class tax increase btw, since tax brackets are also linked to the CPI). When I think of "Future" in terms of retirement programs, I think of the kinds of 20-30 year projections that suggest problems down the road, in the future. Not "12 months from now" when the economy is still struggling to absorb this year's spending cuts. (Oh, and just to note...this is on top of the fact that the retirement age is increasing by 2 years this decade as well, so there's already a benefit cut happening as we speak).

QUOTE (MexSoxFan#1 @ Jan 5, 2013 -> 12:43 PM) That's why Lovie just had to go, the OL troubles ultimately fall on him as the HC, too many years of awfulness from that part of the game...a great offensive line make a Mark Rypien a superbowl champ and an awful OL line make any QB not named Aaron Rodgers look bad. That's why great QBs like Brady, Manning, Brees ect always seem to have a great O line in front of them, I'd love to see those guys try to operate with our O line... The counterpoint of course is that those guys also make their lines better. Getting the ball out quick, not letting the pressure get to them, moving the ball around and not holding it too long so that the defense can't just go after the QB.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Jan 5, 2013 -> 12:27 PM) You had the team losing 90 games last offseason. now you are anti-pessimism? Yes. And the team wound up winning 85 games with a similar roster, which is now more potent on paper since it no longer has the gaping hole at 3b and since we have some idea of which bullpen rookies we can trust. That team had a ton of things go wrong with it and won 85 games. Danks got hurt. Morel was terrible for 2 months because of injury. Youkilis put up a sub -.350 OBP. Dunn could barely hit .200. They ran through to their 10th starting pitcher for a game because no one else was a plausible option. They gave innings to guys like Septimo to see what they could do. Reed was exhausted in the 2nd half. Quintana was exhausted in the 2nd half. Sale was exhausted around the AS break. Ramirez had a really bad season for him. The natural thing to do, with a similar roster, would be to recalibrate to 85 as a starting point, since that's what happened last year. For them to be 15 games worse, not only those kind of things would have to happen, but a whole lot more would have to happen. For them to be 3-4 games better...that same list of things could happen, except Danks not getting hurt and Keppinger being not the worst 3b in history. I said that team could lose 90 last year, and they had a pretty low ceiling. They almost reached what I thought their ceiling was. The same guys are now a year older, there's a lot more depth particularly in the pitching, and for a young team, that means the ceiling is a lot higher.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 5, 2013 -> 12:19 PM) You don't think Rios at 3/36 has value? I think he'd beat that on free agency this year. That being said, I'm not supporting the idea of trading him. Yes, he has value. I'm not saying he doesn't. I'm saying his contract is movable, but if a team is going to give up real legit talent for an OF signed for 3/$36...they may as well go get Justin Upton. If you wanted to sell Rios off now, you could get something for him. That's a big change from last year when he might not have gotten a major league offer if the Sox released him, but you're not getting a guy who is ready to step in as a starter for him.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Jan 5, 2013 -> 12:05 PM) Your post is in line with the mods. Yes, I believe this team has a better chance to lose 90 than to win 90 because of age/health issues. Going in to last season, the White Sox had the 9th youngest roster in the league. And with Pierzynski swapping for Flowers and continuing addition of Youth in the pen, they have not gotten much older on average either. Maybe a little bit because Wise is the backup OF, but that's about it. This is actually a great example of the kind of pessimistic garbage I keep crapping on. You come up with a list of things that could go right and a list of things that could go wrong. Danks being healthy/struggling again, Sale winning the Cy Young/putting up an ERA of 5 by being tired, Konerko continuing his reliability/getting hurt. For no reason, or at least none that is ever explained, it's then asserted that the bad ones are > 3 times more likely to happen than the good ones. Great example. Perfect actually. The bad things are much more likely to happen...because they're the bad things.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Jan 5, 2013 -> 11:49 AM) Things could really get ugly if Konerko is who he was the second half, Dunn, Rios regress, and Danks isn't recovered from his surgery. All reasonably within the realm of possibility. They have a better chance of losing 90 games than winning 90. So it's more likely that this team will be 15 games worse than 5 games better? There you go again.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 5, 2013 -> 11:44 AM) A lot of the Sox "bad' contracts don't look nearly as bad after this off season. A guy like Rios is tradable now. I'm not saying he's unmovable right now. I'm saying he's movable, but not for a very high return. You're not going to get Rios's ready to step in replacement by trading Rios, Floyd, or any other expensive piece on our roster. If you want to move Rios, you better be comfortable with Jordan Danks or Dewayne Wise as your starting RF, because you're not finding anything better to cover it in free agency, and our system doesn't have anyone who can.

Someone floated a trial balloon of Armstrong coming out and admitting PED use.

QUOTE (beck72 @ Jan 5, 2013 -> 11:25 AM) I'm with you. Just to be competitive, the sox need guys to repeat what they did last year. I'd rather the sox take a risk or two with trades, esp. with Rios to upgrade the talent and potential. The sox right now have a decent floor--similar to last years, 85 win team. Yet their ceiling is limited. Why would a team take on Rios's remaining salary obligations while giving the White Sox anything useful back?

QUOTE (floridafan @ Jan 5, 2013 -> 11:01 AM) Can Kepplinger start at 3rd and be a Utility player at the same time? I agree that Sanchez will probably get the shot as a back up utility guy. There has been plenty of buzz about him! There's not a lot of buzz about Angel Sanchez, are you thinking of Carlos Sanchez instead? He'll likely be starting in the minors this year, he's barely had any time above single-A ball, but he might well see the big squad this year if there's a need. Keppinger clearly can't start at 3rd and be a utility player on the same day...but in the event someone hits the DL for a week or so, moving Keppinger to Short/2nd and calling up Morel is at least an option on the list, depending on how people are doing at Charlotte and if they pick up any veterans to play at AAA.

QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Jan 5, 2013 -> 10:22 AM) Who is the backup catcher? Utility infielder? Also, can our current roster compete with Detroit or even KC at this point? We will need multiple guys to have career years to do so. I just do not anticipate that happening. (I have been wrong before!) I would like Hahn to make a bold move. Take a risk. Its not like we have any guys on our major league roster (except Sale) that are untouchable. Angel Sanchez (Rule 5 draft pick) fills backup IF role, and Keppinger could step in as a utility man also if needed. Giminez is sitting as the backup catcher right now.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jan 4, 2013 -> 10:19 PM) Wow Robinson got destroyed by LeBron and no call. LeBron barely gets bumped on the other end and gets a foul call. Didn't Lebron go like the entire month of December or something ridiculous like that without a foul called on him?

QUOTE (Jake @ Jan 4, 2013 -> 09:05 PM) Our team rating for pass blocking is -22.2, which is horrible. However, a huge portion of that negative rating is wrapped up in our right tackle, which is just crazy. You may have noticed that our blocking became less of a factor after Carimi's benching, and these stats may explain why. While things don't translate exactly from position to position (they said they are really working on this but it favors RBs a bit), Marshall led our team and was one of the highest in the league with an overall 21.3 rating. Honestly, no I didn't notice them significantly improving after Carimi was benched.

Hahn has filled the holes the Sox have already. At least in terms of the major league roster. You may not like the guys he's filled them with, but if the season started today, they can field a full roster with an obvious starter and backup at each position, a rotation 6+ deep, and a full bullpen.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 4, 2013 -> 04:20 PM) Plus the draft allowance as well. Kyle Lohse is going to have difficulty finding a job. some place that has already given up its first round pick to sign a FA, like Anaheim or Cleveland, could be a good fit

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Jan 4, 2013 -> 04:17 PM) How about going after Kyle Lohse and using Gavin Floyd as trade bait and also save his $9M or so salary to use towards signing Lohse. What kind of price is Lohse going to command for say a 3 Yr contract? I know Lohse's agent is Boras but how does Hahn deal with that guy instead of KW? It's worth noting that Lohse was extended a qualifying offer and turned it down, so signing him and trading Floyd would send our first-round pick to St. Louis.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 4, 2013 -> 03:44 PM) Things like keeping SS benefit increases to a more realistic CPI, for example, is a good idea IMO - it doesn't take any money out of the current economy (directly), and helps keep that under control going forward. What standard to you use to say that the current CPI is inaccurate? Yes there is the "Chained CPI" which reflects how purchases change for the average taxpayer when prices change, but if you really want to be accurate, then using the chained CPI for a subset of the population (Specifically the elderly) isn't a smart idea. The BLS has constructed an experimental index for the elderly, CPI-E, but has not been funded to develop and track it fully. Because people over 65 tend to spend more of their income on Health Care, and health care costs are rising more rapidly than the rest of the economy, the elderly tend to see a higher inflation rate than the rest of the population. Thus, if you really wanted to accurately reflect the costs to seniors, right now, you'd be increasing benefits at a rate faster than the regular CPI, rather than slower.

QUOTE (SoxAce @ Jan 4, 2013 -> 08:01 AM) Never thought I'd see anyone get it. When I first started posting here, it was amazing looking at Jason's post count, but he is the top dog/leader/creator. Then when Mike started his ridiculous rise, others came to challenge at one point (qwerty, Balta, etc.) but then all of them faded. 100+ thousand posts. Me and my boy Knight both joined in January and even with our combined post counts are still way short. Faded? I'm offended.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 4, 2013 -> 02:21 PM) Sabotaging the team down the road with bad contracts isn't putting the best team on the field. Going out and spending all your money just because you can isn't visionary, its reactionary, and it will cripple your franchise eventually. All you have to do is look around baseball to see teams who have been in contract hell. How is it working out for the Marlins? The Cubs? The Mets? The Red Sox? The Yankees? What do the Tigers and Angels have to show for the massive contracts they have handed out lately? The Yankees won the world series the year after they signed Captain Cheesesburger and Teixeira, and continue getting division titles out of them. The Tigers have 2 straight playoff appearances, including a world series visit. The Cubs got 2 playoff births that they needed, and more importantly, got the team sold at a time of maximum revenue thanks to those playoff births. Obviously, spending money is no guarantee...but it's clearly complicated. The Tigers and Yankees have recently been very successful at getting to the playoffs based on large spending totals.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Jan 4, 2013 -> 01:54 PM) (why in parentheses)? (seems mysterious) (completely off subject, 2+ pages ago).

QUOTE (Y2HH @ Jan 4, 2013 -> 11:31 AM) This leads to another issue...IMO, Samsung's current S3 is the *class* of devices running Android. Period. The HTX 1X+ comes close, but not quite there. This new Nexus phone, same boat. Not quite as nice as the S3. Until I feel a Nexus device is as good as the flag bearer of Android devices, I wouldn't be able to make the jump...so I'm hoping this new super phone Google is working on with Motorola Google, is better than an S3, being it's aged, and at least as good as whatever Samsung ends up releaseing as their S4...if and when that happens, they will have gained a convert. This will, however, mark the first year I very much consider making the switch. Android has arrived...now it just needs to hardware to match it in the Nexus line. They've kept it under wraps very well, but I keep reading that the GS4 will be available at some point early in 2013.