Balta1701

The reality at the time wasn’t changing. They were a mid 70s win team that was maxed out on its payroll. They had no system, and they were making desperation moves like taking on James Shields for Erik Johnson and some international signing throwin to try to salvage seasons. Their key guys were injury risks and getting to the expensive portions of their contracts, so just holding them made signing help challenging. The only realistic path forward was to have a team that got progressively weaker each of the next 3 seasons until Sale and Eaton hit free agency. They would have been in 3rd or 4th place every year until 2019 when they would have been competing with the Royals and Tigers for 5th.

I could actually understand doing this and clearing contracts. But plain and simple the White Sox are not competing next year if Jake Burger is their starting 3b. I don’t care if they have an extra $25 million to use in free agency from this trade and they sign Rodon. This is not an upgrade to the roster, there is no combination of starting pitcher and 3b you will sign for $30 million that fixes you as good of a chance at competing next year as Moncada and Giolito. If you want to clear out Moncada and Grandal and use other big league assets to make it happen, you’re rebuilding again. Trade Cease too. Play Burger, sign a couple more starters who were injured last year, look for guys you can move at the deadline.

Because this (dumb) idea is not that trading Hendriks is a path to rebuilding, the idea is that it’s a path to helping compete in 2023. You fill a hole for 2023 and free up money that can be used to fill the other hole. If their budget is fully tapped out already, trading Hendriks for someone who doesn’t contribute this year leaves them with a weakened bullpen and the same holes in the OF and lineup. It’s an even worse setup than the already bad move of trying to fill an OF spot with a rookie from the Hendriks trade and having money for one more signing.

That’s $167 if you count the buyouts for Harrison and Pollock on 2022. While the luxury tax dies I’m not sure the white Sox do (otherwise why did they do the mutual option with Clevinger other than to move a payment after the year is over?). If those buyouts are being counted for 2023 and 2024 I think they are a little higher.

TBH, I would be surprised if it reaches that total since free agency existed.

I think Graveman's problem was much more something physical, although I don't know what it was. His worst numbers were in days where he pitched back to back, he was noticeably more wild and gave up more extra base hits in those outings. Then on top of that, he really seemed to wear down in the second half, with a 4.81 ERA and a particularly bad September. By the end of the year there were clearly too many days where he was just unavailable. Whatever the problem was, I dunno, but that was more important than anything else.

For a guy who "was the only reliever not crapping his pants" in 2021, the 3 runs and a loss in game 2 of that series was pretty crappy. A lot of that was bad defensive positioning, but it still all happened. The dude had an 8.10 ERA during that series because of that one outing.

Can you add the link that shows that? Because it’s not on the baseball America page for the player, I just checked and at least for a nonsubscriber they don’t show those FV numbers there.

So you don't but you can't admit it.

Guys, I think we're getting a little specific on the wishing for death. Let's at least have some limits on that.

I always thought Texas was taking offers on him but had a price that was way too high. From the White Sox I thought they were probably asking for Vaughn.

Except as we noted yesterday Colson currently isn't a 55 FV prospect unless you have a source for those rankings you can cite other than Fangraphs?

Wait…isn’t there sorta another issue with him?

Just so I get this straight, you wouldn’t do Vaughn and Montgomery for Reynolds as that’s an overpay and no one moves guys like that unless it’s for a guy like Soto, but two 50 FV guys like Vaughn and Montgomery is the price for Anderson?

I’m wondering if he will get to 35 and we will be saying that he didn’t put as many miles on his arm in his 20s because of the injuries so he may still have years left in him after this contract.

I was surprised they didn’t make a run for him last year.

I could definitely see this as something the Dodgers would consider as a way to upgrade their bullpen without giving up any players.

It depends on what “a good bit of value” means to you. I don’t think a competitive team is giving you one of their controlled starters or position players for example. I do believe you could get a good quality prospect return for that reason though.

He’s not valueless by any means, but he isn’t bringing back a franchise reshaping big league player.

It is worth noting that Hendriks was a 1.6 WAR reliever last year and is projected at 1.9. Diaz was a 3 WAR reliever last year. If they each matched their previous seasons (and both stayed healthy), Diaz would be cheaper per WAR.

2 years of control left, coming off an injury shortened season, a history of minor leg injuries, defensively from last year you question whether he can stay at SS, and his performance last year looked like a 3 win SS, not 4.5 like the year before. Surplus value for him at this projection looks like 4 WAR over 2 years beyond what you’re paying for, rather than 7 like you would have thought coming into 2022. You’re not only trading him at a big low in his value, but there’s also 4 (now 3) other shortstop options available as free agents. This is not a good guy to sell right now.

I’ve said this almost every time this came up: Liam Hendriks was way more important to the 2022 White Sox than you thought. Starting in April with that losing streak, this team had a negative run differential. They outperformed their expected record base on one factor alone - their record in close games. I kept watching that the whole year and expecting it to correct and it never did. The White Sox finished tied with Cleveland for the 4th best record in baseball in 1-run games. Had they been a .500 team in 1-run games, they finish 6 or 8 games below .500 and in third place. Minnesota, for comparison, had a losing record in 1 run games and finished behind the White Sox despite a better run differential. Furthermore, the White Sox’s bullpen wasn’t special overall. They were 8th in bullpen WAR, 12th in ERA. Their bullpen was one that had no depth. If you got to the Sox’s middle relief, you often scored 3 or 4 runs. Expensive middle relievers couldn’t be counted on. But if you got to the 8th inning and the game was tight; the Sox would go to Graveman in the first half and Lopez in the second half and shut this game down. If you took Hendriks out of the 2022 White Sox and replaced him with a 5 win outfielder, I think that team still finishes at .500. The run differential evens out, but the record in close games drops to .500, and the end result is no gain. If you replaced Hendriks with Benintendi, I think the team is actually a couple games worse. Having seen how much they struggled in the 8th inning in 2021 (so much so that it led to the Kimbrel deal) and seeing how bad the middle relief was in 2022, I think this is the type of mistake that has an outsized impact. Not only do we drop more close games than we make up for with an OF, we also undermine any good emotions from the new coaching staff with losses in the 8th and 9th inning that are especially deflating emotionally. If you’re selling Hendriks, sell Giolito and Cease. You’ve already given up.

I do have to admit I missed the "The White Sox won't have any LH hitters" part of that, I can't remember what I was thinking about that at the time. Maybe I was looking at what Moncada had done LH and thinking he was mostly going to be a LH bat?

Well the strategery was keeping Moncada at 2b and Machado at 3b. 2b has been a hole for just as long. Moncada becoming a really good defensive 3b was the thing that made "It should have been Harper" the pick. That wasn't expected.

Baseball's revenues really are through the roof. A team like the White Sox should be able to average a payroll that is roughly $150 million - peaking over $200 million and then staying high for several years in a row. The White Sox have averaged $106 million over the past 10 years. The White Sox have averaged $106 million over the past 5 years (counting 2020). The Phillies have averaged $142 million over the past 10 years and $144 million over the past 5 years.