Balta1701

The usual recovery time for TJS is they start pitching at 12 months but aren’t fully recovered until 18 months, with a rehab assignment somewhere after 12 months. So maybe, but I kinda doubt he is available for the first month plus.

So according to Bowden, Judge’s market is 4 teams?

At the same time, that bullpen was probably the only reason the White Sox stayed at .500 this year rather than winding up 6 games under. They outperformed their run differential the whole year, and the one thing that stands out is that they were tied with Cleveland for the 4th best record in 1 run games. If they were .500 in 1 run games, they would have won about 75 games. Their overall bullpen was slightly above average, but that was because they had no depth in their bullpen just like so much of their roster. Too many guys in their pen, if they got the ball, immediately gave up 3 or 4 runs, including some of their expensive guys. But, if Lopez, Graveman for the first half of the year, and Hendriks got the ball in a tight game, they kept the game tight or kept the lead more often than not. That could be a spot where they save money, and it could also be a deal that costs the White Sox more wins in their record than it does in WAR.

I could absolutely see the Dodgers taking him back for a couple million next year. They have several OF openings and how much do you really believe in Trayce Thompson? They could use the depth. It's creepy because I say this for seemingly everyone but he fits the Astros. Plays some DH, plays some LF so that Alvarez doesn't play there full time, occasionally plays CF, Tucker is in RF. Cheap, Aledmys Diaz is a free agent so they have open spots on their bench, as is Mancini, they got nothing from Diaz or Mancini in the playoffs anwyay. In terms of competitive teams, there's a fair amount of demand for outfielders, especially as injuries hit once the year starts. One can definitely keep going on that list. Someone like the DBacks, if he really wanted to go to Arizona, could certainly take a guy like that and play him part time, especially if they made it clear they might trade him at the deadline.

If they are counting Pollock’s buyout as on the 2022 payroll, they have about $155 million committed in 2023 so far. A $180 million payroll leaves them $25 million to spend, give or take. It’s also not far off from what they spent last year depending on when you book Pollock’s charge. That would be $190 million last year, $185 million next year if Pollock is booked as part of 2023.

He was at 1/$14 in the estimates that Heyman posted last week, but those same estimates had Abreu at $75 million and Benintendi at $56 million, so Conforto is higher here but Abreu seems more reasonable. Might be useful for setting the range, if Conforto is able to fully pass a physical this might be suggesting that $14 million is too low.

Michael Brantley, 2/$28 Joc Pederson, 2/$24 Josh Bell, 2/$20 Michael Conforto, 1/$19 Matt Carpenter, 1/$13 Jurickson Profar 2/$24

Kiley McDaniel has contract predictions out for the top 50 FAs. Let me know if there's anyone you want numbers for. https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/34971864/2022-23-mlb-offseason-free-agent-contract-predictions-rankings Some relevant ones: Benintendi at 3/$42, Abreu at 2/$46, Nimmo at 5/$118 but he notes in text he would not be surprised to see it go 6 years as happened with Story.

What's actually ironic is the Dodgers won their division by 22 games. So, on paper, no they don't need 20 games of improvement. The Yankees though, if they lose Judge, yes I think everyone would agree they'd be in trouble.

I see you didn't read my post. Jose Abreu, Johnny Cueto, Elvis Andrus, AJ Pollock, and Josh Harrison total just over 10 wins however you slice it. That is nearly 1/3 of the White Sox's 2022 production that must be replaced or paid for again. But frankly, yes, 100+ wins should have been a goal, that of course is just 30 wins away right now. It is an ungodly disappointment that we are no longer talking about putting together a team that can do that. And it is entirely possible that a young, affordable Cleveland team improves and it turns out that 20 more wins only gets you into the wild card round.

He apparently does have 3 years of arbitration eligibility, so you'd probably be paying a premium talent price for him despite the down year.

So you're saying he'd be willing to play in Chicago? This makes a ton of sense. Shouldn't even take all of Pollock's money.

Apparently Kevin Kiermaier has an option with the Rays likely to be turned down. He missed a lot of 2022 with an injury and hasn't been the paragon of health in recent years, but clearly he can be a defensive backup in CF as well as the other OF positions. As a part time player, he seems like a perfect fit. https://www.si.com/mlb/rays/news/tom-brew-my-two-cents-tampa-bay-rays-outfielder-kevin-kiermaier-fresh-off-hip-surgery-says-i-will-be-back-but-will-he

No. The incentive was on the option year, not the buyout. If he had stopped at 200 plate appearances, his contract option would have been $11 million, his buyout would have been $5 million. He would have turned down $6 million yesterday. Since he passed 450 plate appearances, his contract option was $13 million, but his buyout was still $5 million. He got extra money available to him by playing a lot this year, and now he had to turn down $8 million.

I don't believe 2 of those people exist. Anyway...this isn't a bad concept. Unless the White Sox go nuts and blast their way into the luxury tax, their ability to compete next year is 100% going to be determined by whether or not they can get a 20 win improvement out of the guys who are already here (10 wins behind Cleveland this year, 10 wins lost to free agency). If they get a 10 win improvement out of guys who are already here, that's a hole they cannot possibly plug through trades and free agency, and it won't matter that Hahn didn't trade away everything he could. Whether they sign Benintendi or trade for Trent Grisham, they have to fill a handful of holes the best they can, but picking the right guy will only matter if they have already made up 95% of the ground on Cleveland through the guys already in the org.

I know yesterday makes this no longer a financial emergency situation, but seriously, Grandal, Zavala, and Perez are your catchers and they should be. This is not a spot to be throwing more money at. Play out Grandal’s contract, get the last dregs of baseball out of his legs, and try to have Zavala and Perez ready as a cheap catching pair the following couple years.

Bellinger will almost certainly be a free agent. His arbitration number if the Dodgers offered it would be like $20 million. He’s not worth that, that money makes up the bulk of either Nimmo or Judge’s contract for 2023. They will likely non tender him and he will be available for much less than that dollar amount.

I figured it out on the way home. The difference is actually Pollock’s buyout. They spent $190.7 million this year before Pollock’s buyout. If Pollock’s buyout is counted as the first transaction in FY 2023, they spent $190.7 million and have $161 ish million on the books, so they’d have $30 million to spend. If you count Pollock as on FY 2022, then they spent $195.7 million last season and have $156 million ish on the books, leaving them about $40 million to spend to get back to this years’ payroll. So, depending on bookkeeping, it could conceivably be anywhere from $30 to $40 million to spend for Hahn’s statement today to be accurate.

We did this in another thread on Friday. To get to $196, either I missed something that isn't in Spotrac, or you're counting signing bonuses, or you're counting money spent on the draft. This drops the payroll to just over $160 million committed, so roughly $30 million available to get back to the same payroll next season. Exact number might be different slightly but also depends on arb offers and numbers.

Plausible but he's going to be 36 next offseason so it's not a guarantee that he will even be looking at a contract if he is any worse or gets hurt this year. I think it's more likely he takes a small loss this season to go somewhere that he's more comfortable, personally or for a title run or because he didn't like this organization or whatever else the reason. That at this point in his career, its worth it to lose a couple million to go where he wants to play.

Just over $190 million depending on how you count things.

I'm not going to rule out the White Sox doing anything just because it's dumb, but boy I hope they don't count on a guy who can't play the field or stay healthy or a guy who struck out 30% of the time at AA as their main OFs for a substantial stretch next year.

Even if they went out and signed an OF to cover the corner spot, would anyone really have confidence in Cespedes as a starter for 60 or 70 games counting injuries?

He is not worth $8 million and at least last offseason the only OFs who performed as poorly as him who got that much money were Rosario and Soler, and they had big postseasons that helped them earn money.

This does clear up some money, but also creates a need. Wonder if that is a comment on the team.