Balta1701

Again, name for me a pitcher in the last several years who has come back from TJS and been fully back to themselves in under 18 months.

The White Sox's bullpen was a sliver better than average last year, but the bullpen construction was actually more important than that. The one thing that kept the White Sox from being a mid-70s win team is that they were tied with Cleveland for 4th best record in MLB in 1-run games. To say that another way, when the White Sox were able to give a tight game to the key 2 or 3 guys in their bullpen, they were commonly able to hold that lead or win that game, at a rate comparable to the best bullpens in baseball. However, the bullpen had very poor depth, so if the middle relievers came into a game, more often than you would ever want - they crumbled. They do have too much money allocated to the bullpen, but they also have very poor bullpen depth. Trading away Hendriks and moving guys like Bummer and Lambert into key roles in tighter games has a very good chance of making this team suddenly beatable in 1-run games, and thus it has a very good chance of making this team worse. Take a look at the Phillies and Astros and ask yourself if you have confidence in Bummer, Lambert, Graveman, and Lopez as key contributors in a pennant race or a playoff series? Maybe Lopez is fine, you ready to go to Bummer and Lambert in a key game? We did exactly that in the "must-win" series against Cleveland.

His range in cf is slightly positive and comparable to what he did previously. Errors were a little weak and worst of his career, but that's Chicago for you. What was the worst thing for him in his time in CF? His throwing arm giving up extra bases, which teams were happy to take. 120% of his negative CF defensive performance comes from his throwing arm (fully offset his decent range).

He was also really poorly suited to RF because one of his weakest features is his throwing arm. It's below average for CF, tolerable in LF, so extremely poorly suited for RF. He has had previous arm and shoulder injuries. On paper this was a genuinely bad idea.

To be fair, the Dodgers weren't particularly happy with Kimbrel either. So I guess yeah he did a lot for the Padres too, because the Dodgers couldn't go out and get a better bullpen piece?

Clearly based on what Jansen got "eating over half the deal" is an exaggeration, you could likely have gotten someone to absorb most of that deal without having to eat money, but he wasn't worth a prospect in addition to taking on his contract.

This one I was pretty emphatic about last season, Kimbrel did not look like a player who was worth anything other than a bad contract, he wasn't getting back any sort of prospect of any value from anyone. Teams that had that much money to spend on relievers - the Phillies, Braves - they found better options on the FA market where they didn't have to give up talent. Teams that were willing to make trades for relievers - Padres - found better options on the trade market. Criticize for the contract option being picked up if you want, that's correct it shouldn't have been done. Kimbrel on the FA market might have gotten a contract close to what he was actually paid, but he wasn't going to get more than his salary this year (note that Jansen got the same money Kimbrel got), and that means Kimbrel was not worth a prospect of any value.

For the Bulls specifically, getting out of the cellar and out of the constant rebuilds, so at least the stadium is full and games are watchable, was definitely an unexpected surprise.

Or maybe the Dodgers recognized that Pollock was at about the end of his career and viewed him as having negative value to them, so they dumped the 2023 contract risk off onto someone else...and since he had effectively 0 value Kimbrel wouldn't have returned this "fantastical prospect."

From the Trade Simulator, assuming that he's actually movable in a fair value deal and not "you need to overpay for him", it was Montgomery + Crochet for the easiest match, Montgomery + Ramos + Sosa/Martin/Vera/Romy (and several other guys) also generally works. There are other options involving guys like Giolito, Anderson, Hendriks since they have value as well, but it seems likely that would need a third team to take on the money.

I have been saying that for a while. But they still need to figure out a way to add warm bodies. They need 2 outfielders and a starter to fill out a roster. Not negotiable.

Oh I agree, getting in and out of there 81 times a year would be a nightmare, but that doesn't mean some politicians won't push that to the point that it happens.

...is there a spaceship currently on this spot?

It's still better than Vaughn OF.

I’d say they’re pretty comparable except Eloy has this issue where he keeps nearly ending his career or others’ careers while in LF. Winker was -10 on OAA last year, Eloy was -2 in just about 1/4 of the playing time. UZR tells a similar story. Thats still a ton better than Vaughn.

If the White Sox came away with two 1 WAR outfielders and one 1 WAR starter I would not consider that a failed offseason. It wouldn’t be great, but that would be an upgrade over Vaughn, Sheets, and Engel in the OF. With seemingly only $20 million or less to spend, I’m ok with that as long as it doesn’t create a long term commitment. The success of the 2023 White Sox will not be determined by finding ideal free agent fits or some great trade, it will be getting more out of guys already here. If that happens then they are potentially in the race, if it doesn’t then the quality of who you spend your $20 million on barely matters.

7 WAR over 6 seasons including 2020 isn't replacement level. It's a below average starter, but it's above replacement level. Replacement level is Adam Engel last year.

For Crochet, all the team has said is he's on schedule. Recent experience league with with TJS has 0 players in the last 3 years who had TJS coming back in fewer than 14 months and the large majority either taking 16+ months or having setbacks that push them past 18 months, which strongly suggests to me he will not be ready to start the year.

I'm used to it.

Is it just me, or are there a lot of moves happening right now due to the roster deadline with the White Sox sitting on the sidelines?

That's much more of a multi-year process, which obviously I'm totally ok with fixing. In terms of this offseason though, I'm more concerned about them doing things that make this team worse 3 years from now. "Oops we traded away our 15th ranked prospect and now he's an all star, but we signed Benintendi/Melky Cabrera to a 4 year deal and now we have him for 2 more seasons" kinda stuff.

That works for me, but I don't consider that "investing" in youth.