Balta1701

They might try the classic "We'll keep you down unless you sign this extension" gambit? But if they don't bring in 2 OFs, I don't see how the roster actually works. Leury's the backup OF? Or they're going to call up Cespedes just to be a backup? That's just painful.

I wouldn't be surprised if you were right and they only added 1 and then Colas broke ST with the team just so they have 4 OFs on the roster counting Sheets. I also wouldn't be surprised if we had people screaming no one could have ever guessed the OF would have this many injuries by about April 15.

That fit was sadly obvious. And yeah, this hurts the White Sox's chances a lot.

Over Heaney? Sure, Clevinger looks to have a good shot at being better. Quintana was really good last year. If he's found a little of what he had back in his Chicago days, he could be a bargain on a 2 year $30 million deal.

I found it totally unsurprising that Cueto would lose some steam at the end of the year. His arm hadn’t thrown that many innings since 2016. Of course he wasn’t conditioned for 150 innings. The fact that he got to that many innings last year could leave him better conditioned to throw 150+ next year, if other things in his body don’t break down.

Cueto has definitely had an injury history longer than Clevinger’s career. Last year was his first healthy season in a long time. But, he also was more effective last year and would have been even better had he not wore out at the end of the year when he threw 150 innings for the first time in forever. It’s certainly not out of the question that he could put up a 4 win, 175 inning season next year just by strengthening his arm in 2022. It’s also not out of the question that he could be out for the season before April begins. On the other hand, Clevinger has a very long history of injury, but he is also at the point in the third year post TJS where hopefully his arm has finished recovery. It’s not out of the question that he could be past the injuries and come out with a really good season that leaves him as a #2 starter by the end of the year. It also wouldn’t be surprising if he was in the IL on opening day either. Maybe slightly higher ceiling for Clevinger, but similar floor for both, and maybe Cueto seems a little more likely to be good overall to me based on last year?

If the price for Cueto and Clevinger was the same, I would probably have gone with Cueto. Cueto was better last year, threw notably more innings, regularly went deeper into games, and his pitching style is more of a contrast with the other fastball heavy guys in the rotation. My impression of Hahn is that he would make exactly the opposite choice.

The Twins were 20-28 in 1 run games and 5-10 in extra innings. They produced 2.5 WAR from their bullpen, less than half that of the White Sox. I know those guys are young and will help, but they sure look like they could benefit from bullpen help.

Dudes actually got to pitch before he can settle into a role. You might want him starting for a year just to build arm strength after surgery.

Unless Martin actually hurt himself badly in game 162, Martin can be a part of that role. It is often beneficial to have an answer to who your 7th starter will be as there is likely to be a need for it at some point. That I currently don’t know.

JR hasn't had to deal with an outspoken union rep during a time where there was a lockout in the last 2 decades. As long as the union rep doesn't actually do anything to support the union, he might be more tolerant.

In that case, Kelenic is the contingency plan.

Here's what I've got. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33827168/los-angeles-dodgers-trevor-bauer-suspended-two-seasons

Aside from everything else, pretty sure he's suspended for a while.

Well the downside is that he’s been a -2 win player so far in his career so I get the concept but it’s way more of a “rebuilding team” move. If he is that bad again that could cost the White Sox a chance at the wild card if a lot of other things went right. That’s the kind of move they should have been making in like 2018-2019. If they were going to sell off a couple other pieces to save money, then why not?

The White Sox almost never go to arbitration with players for plenty of good reasons. To pull the plug on negotiating with Giolitos side when they were $50k apart? They haven’t done that with anyone in my lifetime. Then, a surprising number of trade rumors from the supposed insiders on the guy even though moving him makes no baseball sense? There’s clearly something going on here.

It would be surprising to learn that JR would take it that far out of spite when he tried to go to arbitration with the guy over what was it $50k last year?

Hell yes. I count two guys right now that I would expect to have strong seasons, one of whom has an elbow that cost him a month last year. They have extremely poor bullpen depth, they were strong in tight games thanks to those guys but their middle relief was straight up bad. Cueto to Clevinger almost certainly hangs more innings onto that crappy middle relief.

If you count Pollock to make the 2023 payroll look as high as possible, they’re at just over $160 million right now. Adding $15 million would leave them at about $175, which seems low. $20 million spending seems required to get to $180.

The “you just added innings to your middle relief” is a smart angle on this that I didn’t think of. Thanks. That would be extra important if they actually were going to trade away a reliever and weaken that already shaky bullpen.

The awesome return is getting rid of the problematic pro union guy.

This one seems too obvious.

Well of course it estimated fewer starts for him it included Rodon in the rotation in the version you’re using.

Lance Lynn zips projected 3.2 WAR. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-chicago-white-sox/ Lance Lynn by Fangraphs 1.9 WAR. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/lance-lynn/2520/stats?position=P I will wait until you can tell me how that comes out to a 0.7 difference. Since you accused me of making up numbers. But then an issue - bWAR only puts Lynn at 0.8 WAR. So what is the difference, is B-R blaming him more for defense? Or is he just a dropoff of 2.4 WAR? https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lynnla01.shtml

And this is what I mean when I say you’re making the really unlikely assumption that somehow everything will go right next year. Everyone succeeds, no one has a bad year, no one gets hurt, and maybe they catch Cleveland as long as they get worse next year. Not impossible, but way more unlikely than you want to admit.