Balta1701

No, I said those guys nearly offset all the injuries. Go back and read the text. I can link the post with the math if you want. They then underperformed last year on top of that because of drop offs by a couple key guys in their 30s, because it turned out that Vaughn and Sheets weren’t good outfielders and because their coach did insane things like playing Leury that much. But overall, they just weren’t that good, and they’re worse now. A lot worse.

Several. I’m not sure, I doubt it is enough to keep up with Cleveland. Zips did what it often does. It underestimated the 2020/2021 White Sox - why? Because it underestimates teams loaded with young players. Cleveland was the youngest team in the league, of course it underestimated them. Similarly, the biggest misses for Zips were Grandal and Lynn. Why? Because it doesn’t project cliffs for guys in their 30s, it gives slow dropoff projections for them but in reality guys in their 30s sometimes hit cliffs due to injury. The gap is narrower with a competent manager, but this roster isn’t a well built one.

No, But Abreu putting up 4 wins rather than the projected 1.9, Cease putting up 4.4 rather than 3.2, Cueto putting up 2.3 rather than 0, Kimbrel putting up 0 rather than being a part of the bullpen makes up a whole lot of that ground. When you count only the guys who underperformed and then ignore the guys who over performed you miss the important part of the story. And lumping Leury into that to make the difference look bigger when anyone else in the league would have benched him? Hilarity.

This team somehow managed to get an all star level 2 months from Elvis Andrus and a borderline all star 4 months out of Johnny Cueto and a solid season out of Seby Zavala, which basically offset nearly all the injuries on the roster, and somehow people still say "Everything went wrong." Want an "Everything went wrong"? Imagine that team with Cueto and Andrus not available. Not hard to believe, Andrus will never put up that 2 month stretch again and Cueto won't be available 2 days before spring training ends this year. Or imagine all that, and at the same time Abreu hurt and missing - which is exactly where they are right now. It's not insurmountable, but this is a gigantic hill.

If we had LaRussa I would be saying this works fine since he’s already experienced at telling the opposing team to throw at players on the Sox.

If you work through the way it cascades, “I had to trade Hendriks so that I could afford Kolten Wong” really doesn’t give a lot of confidence in this season going well.

I believe the $180 million number came from Jimmy.

I don’t know what it means long term. But regardless, this is a guy who had success last year at AA and above. The team clearly has some payroll limitations, so if you thought you could plug Sosa in and just get what Harrison gave you last year, you’d almost have to do it. If they have $20 million to spend and they spend $10 million on a 2b, all of a sudden there’s not much left at all for the OF and pitching. If they have $35 million to spend, I think almost everyone would say go sign Nimmo for $25 million and use the other $10 million on a pitcher and that gives you the best lineup you can field. The only way you wouldn’t do that is if you were convinced Sosa would be a complete black hole this year and wouldn’t improve even by the second half.

If you’ve gotten to the point of suggesting that Billy Hamilton was a major key to 2021 and his absence was a major factor in why 2022 didn’t go well, then I think you’ve taken this concept too far.

If they only have $20 million to spend, those two together would leave the white Sox approximately $1.5 million available for that SP.

So let’s play around with some names. On the Futuresox list, Jared Kelly, Wes Kath, and Yolbert Sanchez are all in the 15 to 20 range. That’s a pair of former second round picks and a high money Cuban signing. Would 2 of those three guys be a deal that would work for everyone? The Twins save some money and get back a couple guys with potential, the White Sox get a tolerable starting OF? Didnt the Twins bring up a young OF or two from their system late in the season last year? Was that Celestino, I’m trying to figure this out from depth charts.

This continues to suggest that they don’t believe in Sosa as a major leaguer.

B-R was doing something very weird where it isn’t reporting his numbers in their normal columns and I don’t know why. Check his full stats, I don’t know why it is showing zero. Fangraphs shows him at 2 and I think that is more reasonable.

I will admit, I lost the plot a little bit with the concept of someone coming to the White Sox and increasing their launch angle as a consequence.

have at it.

That is literally the perfect white Sox thanksgiving message.

Are you ok with acquiring him if it means Eloy is the only LF option?

At catcher? Yes, absolutely, literally anything can be playoff caliber at that position. I gave the numbers for Houston and Cleveland in that post. Anything you get out of the catcher's spot is basically gravy, it isn't a method that carries most teams to the playoffs. Nobody cares that Houston's catchers gave them very little offensively or defensively because they handled their rotation expertly and those folks were at the top of the sport. Are the White Sox playoff caliber if they get 1.7 WAR out of their catchers spot? I dunno. They have to make that ground up elsewhere, and last year they couldn't come close.

You're right but that's the game. He gets to count Martin positively as a super young pitcher to make their rotation look younger, then accuses me of being biased when I point out that yeah, the 4 who are the actual "core" aren't a young batch any more. 2 guys who are slightly younger than average, 1 guy who is slightly older than average, one guy who is the oldest pitcher on the list. In 2020, the White Sox's roster was in the top 10 youngest in the league. They're just not that roster any more. They haven't been bringing up much talent to replace guys, the guys who make up the core are approaching the average age of the league or in many cases have passed it, and they've doubled down on veterans to fill holes. You feed that into a prediction algorithm and it spits back that these guys don't have a lot more room to grow, because once they get to a certain age seeing "lots of growth" becomes rare. And if you want to imagine the team being healthier next year as they get older, well you ought to know my opinion on that.

Davis Martin isn't a 5th starter.

For the White Sox? Naw, it looks rather normal. They have 3 people who should play there. Grandal, Zavala, and Perez. The veteran probably shouldn't be counted on for more than 1/2 the games, but if he's in decent physical shape coming into the year it shouldn't be difficult for him to be a 1 win catcher. Not what you're paying him for, but not that obscene around the league. Although Zavala was a 2 WAR catcher last year, let's assume he's not nearly that good offensively again, but he was pretty good defensively and with pitch framing last year, so between him and Perez it shouldn't be impossible to get another 1 WAR out of them. If Grandal struggles more than that, maybe you could more aggressively put him on the IL and keep Perez on the roster, and the downside isn't all that terrible. If Zavala is still performing surprisingly well with the bats, maybe he steals some more at bats. As of right now, position looks about average. One young guy, one veteran on his literal last legs, and one guy who has a bit of experience who is somewhere around tolerable. That's about what most teams are bringing to the table. The Median team last year got 1.35 WAR from their catchers spot, the White Sox got 1.7. Shouldn't be impossible to pull off something like that again. Cleveland and Houston? -0.2 and -0.6, respectively, and I'm not sure anyone cared that those were black holes.

Ryan 26.46849315 Bundy 30.02191781 Gray 33.04383562 Smeltzer 27.2109589 Ober 27.36712329 Average - 28.82 I acutally can't figure out which starters you included for the Twins, I'm guessing Maeda maybe? Because this exercise also did a solid job of showing how much deeper the Twins rotation is than the White Sox's as their version of Davis Martin would be Josh Winder, but counting Maeda he's their 7th starter while I think you're counting Martin as the White Sox's fifth starter.

Michael Kopech 26 years 207 days, 26.567 years old today Dylan Cease 26 years 330 days, 26.904 years old today Lucas Giolito 28 years 132 days, 28.362 years old today Lance Lynn, 35 years 195 days, 35.534 years old today. Average rotation age: 29.342 years old today. Average age of the rotation last year, weighted by who pitched - 29.6, 8th oldest in the league, and that's counting Cueto. By opening day of next season, those 4 will average 29.7. You're including Sosa, Colas, and Martin in those aren't you?

If the White Sox were thinking about a move for Wong, then they've probably at least considered it, because they wouldn't have much money left to add a LF regular and they can't possibly be certain that a trade for a cheap one will appear. But of course, that illustrates why taking on Wong's deal with only $25 million or less to play with would be a questionable call.

We've seen a tolerable backup catcher move twice in the last year so we actually know what he's worth. We gave up Zach Collins for McGuire, and then gave up McGuire for Diekman. Seby for Wong probably works for the Brewers, they basically would have avoided the $2 million buyout on Wong and then turned him into a backup catcher. Of course, then the White Sox have added $10 million for Wong and then have to go spend $1-2 million more on a backup catcher.