Balta1701

One surprise to me in that Heyman projection piece:

Link in post directly above this has him at $275 million.

There don't seem to be any pieces at all regarding his injury, but the insiders and free agent rankers are starting to come out and they seem to think he's available. Here's Keith Law over at the Athletic, Conforto comes in 49th out of 50 free agents. https://theathletic.com/3751518/2022/11/02/top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions/ Here is an article today projecting contract terms and they have Conforto as 1 year, $14 million (they have Nimmo at 7/$145 by the way) https://www.nj.com/yankees/2022/11/mlb-insider-reveals-projected-contract-terms-for-top-yankees-mets-free-agents-aaron-judge-jacob-degrom-more.html Here's a top 30 by Heyman at the New York post, including contract estimates. He also has Conforto estimated at 1 year, $14 million. Also no suggestion that his injury will prevent him from signing. https://nypost.com/2022/11/03/major-league-baseball-ranking-top-30-free-agents/ Same numbers for Nimmo, 7/$145, and has Benintendi at 4 years, $56 million.

“White Sox see increase in injuries in 2023, lead league in hamstring pulls.”

I think quite clearly they have to go with Romy and Lenyn as their main 2b options, and if it were me I would be also giving Mendick an arb-1 offer if he's expected to be healthy enough to play as he was a decent enough option last year. It may not work, it would be nice to find someone better there, but they have warm bodies in their middle IF already and if they want to compete without going over the luxury tax they're going to have to rely on them.

You could see a lot of development from him last year. He was an expert at taking the ball the other way for his career so far. His pull rate of 30% is right there with Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez, well below average and in the bottom 20% of MLB hitters. His Launch Angle is in the bottom 30% of MLB hitters. He did exactly what he was coached to do.

Money is clearly going to be an object for this team. What they are able to get in under their limit I don't know, but they have only $20 million or so beneath last year's total payroll.

If the White Sox had the funds available I would totally get that price, we need that production desperately. But yeah, we're in such obviously tight straits that it's hard to see it being worth it to outbid the Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, Mets for that guy, not when we also need pitching and have so little depth around the roster.

They might consider it but rapidly you've reached the "too many moving parts for this to make sense" stage. You need a team that needs a 1b/DH, doesn't want to bid on a veteran 1b/DH like Abreu so they can't be the Astros, but also has money to burn on taking on a busted deal so it can't be the Rays either.

Exactly. He wasn't behaving as though he was a guy immediately undergoing major medical treatment on something that was so life threatening that he had no choice but to be pulled out without warning after already doing pregame interviews.

I think we all get that part, that such things are possible. Would he then be repeatedly traveling across the country, starting a few days later though?

Has anyone seen a contract projection for Benintendi? Or for that matter for Conforto? I haven't even seen a confirmed statement that "yes Michael Conforto will play baseball again", let alone that he has an arm capable of throwing from RF after that shoulder injury. I am now thinking that OF prices may jump a lot more than we think this year, given the teams that need outfield help.

Based on the MLB Trade Rumors arbitration projections, they are about $20 million below last year's payroll right now unless something drastic happens (Pollock retiring, trades, etc.). If they keep the same payroll, It will be difficult enough to fill the starting rotation slot with someone competent even if they go cheap and sign Gallo. If they go more expensive and sign Benintendi, then that doesn't leave much space to find a starting pitcher. And that's without even talking about 2b or other backup spots.

Because look how much value he got out of Kimbrel. That just made everything worth while, he did awesome.

I don't want them to do a fire sale, but would Hahn have actually said "There will be wholesale changes to this roster" if they actually were going to do so?

I don't think they need to fill several OF spots, but the post I was replying to specifically said "Lets see what Colas does in Spring Training before calling on him to be a part of the major league team." If that is the case, that Colas doesn't seize an OF spot because he struggles to start the year, or because the coaching staff is down on him, or he gets hurt over the offseason, or whatever the reason is... then the White Sox would be needing an additional OF option beyond the first one. I would agree with you on giving the role to Colas, but the post I was replying to was one saying that we shouldn't do that, so I'm following that discussion point. If Colas is not ready to go early next year for whatever reason, then the White Sox need at least 2 warm bodies for the OF just to field a team. While this scenario is hopefully unlikely, it is not so far outside the realm of possibility that we can't consider what it would do to the rest of the roster. It is worth noting that if something does happen to one of their starting OFs in Spring Training, then the backup plans are things like Sheets and Eloy out there, which are really bad backup plans.

Clearly they have to acquire at least 1 warm body. If Colas isn’t ready to contribute for most of the season, that isn’t enough, and you and I both know they don’t have the resources to fill several OF spots with actual players

If he’s not ready I don’t know how the white Sox field an outfield for the season. 600 PAs for AJ Pollock is not a realistic option. Vaughn, Sheets, and Eloy playing the OF may as well be a white flag. Right now they have 1 OF, Robert, who tends to miss a lot of time, and Pollock who is roughly 1/2 of an OF as he tends to also miss a lot of time and is also coming off an ineffective season.

LaRussa would definitely be back if it wasn’t for whatever his health thing was and I think we all know that.

It’s definitely a player option. https://dodgersway.com/2022/02/06/dodgers-aj-pollock-contract-details-bizarre/amp/ https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-white-sox/aj-pollock-10693/

That one just strikes me as speculation.

Notice though that they're saying "They need to get guys with a higher baseball acumen." There's no acknowledgment that it is possible to train and coach guys to be smarter, more prepared baseball players. They continue to believe that smart baseball guys are born that way, not trained. This has been one of my issues with the White Sox going back decades - they don't view teaching as part of their job, even in the minors. Guys have to learn things on their own, and if they can't figure it out without help it's their fault. Omar Narvaez is a terrible framer, is that something he can be coached to do? Naw, that's impossible, dump him on Seattle for a closer (Narvaez becomes one of the better framers in baseball). Marcus Semien is not a reliable infielder, he'll never be more than a utility guy, no big loss if we dump him for a real prize like a starting pitcher (Semien starts working with Washington, who realizes he's never done basic footwork drills as a shortstop despite playing SS more than any other position. Semien turns into an MVP candidate and a gold glove winner once someone coaches him). Better organizations realize that saying "these guys are baseball stupid" is not a comment on the player, it's a comment on the organization, because the organization can fix that. It could be coaching guys, practicing with guys, creating different training regimens, it could be moving players around, it could be changing guys' roles so that they're not in positions where they're set up to fail. They can say "There should be accountability!!!!" all they want, but if I'm a guy in the front office calling for accountability, but I'm not willing to change up anything that I'm doing, it's not accountability, it's shifting blame.

I've said this in a couple places as Lip has posted pieces of this, but it strikes me while reading this how much of the attitude running through these comments are the "old school/meatball" attitude. Some examples: "no red-asses like they had in the past." "Adam Engel faced the music afterwards, he made a mistake and owned up to it" "Moncada would strike out and just walk back to the dugout like no big deal, he fouls a ball off and now he can’t play for three days? His contract makes him untradable but he needs to go." " The catcher (Yamani Grandal), third baseman (Moncada) and shortstop (Tim Anderson) need to go. They need to get guys with a higher baseball acumen, the lack of urgency, the way they beat themselves this season was embarrassing. Anderson needs to go because the organization gave him the keys to the car and he drove it off the cliff. " I agree that they had a lack of urgency, but I take a look at quotes like "adam Engel faced the music on the triple play" - sure he did, but how did that affect him the rest of the season? He had that key error against Arizona, so did it really make a difference for him at all that he owned up to it? No, owning up to things didn't make a difference at all. Moncada strikes out and it would make a big difference if he got angrier or if someone yelled at him more? They need to just dump players because they're not baseball smart"? I pretty much agree with none of those things. I want guys to be smart, not yell louder. I want guys to be prepared, not stress out because they struck out once. I want my coaches to have guys ready to go, well prepared, and more intelligent. I want them in the right position, not trying to make a heroic play. I want guys who don't dwell on strikeouts, but who recognize what the pitcher did to them and come back next time with an approach to prevent that. If a guy is apologetic, that's great, but then what does he do to change things up next time? A guy has a bad attitude and that makes him unsalvageable? Naw, come on, figure out how to put this player in a position to succeed, how many guys did the Dodgers turn into all stars after other teams gave up on them? This whole set of sentiments feels like it is coming out of one of the guys in the room in "Moneyball" describing why they shouldn't draft someone because their girlfriend is ugly. They never talk about people needing to be smarter, they talk about people needing to be yelled at more. They don't talk about guys putting in their time in the film room to be prepared for the next game, they talk about how things make them feel. It has a very "It's all about TWTW" kind of feel to me, rather than anything to do with the level of professionalism and work ethic you see from the top franchises in the league.

I don't know what it was, but it also wasn't just Anderson. I still go back to the first 8 game losing streak the Sox had this year, game 2 was against the Guardians, Keuchel was on the mound, and the entire infield forgot how to catch the ball. Anderson was the worst of these, he had 3 errors in the first couple innings and then followed that up with 3 more errors the next 2 days...but it wasn't just Anderson. Abreu had one error that was credited and another that was put on the board and taken away. I believe Moncada may have had another bonehead play that day, and then 2 days later we started getting the "Leury Garcia is hitting 3rd, 2nd, and first" bullcrap. Anderson was a key part of that messy losing streak, but he was not the only part of it. There was clearly something going on involving Anderson, but it wasn't just Anderson, there were things hitting several people at once and LaRussa doing his maddening "Leury is awesome" stuff. They never really got going again and spent half the year fighting to recover from that losing streak.

Elvis Andrus put up a .662 OPS over a 4 year period from 2018 to 2021. Josh Harrison over that time period put up a .683 OPS. Andrus is generally a weak baseball player at this point in his career, he is a backup at best for any good team. He came to the White Sox, and all of a sudden put up strong numbers because one thing happened - his HR rate on fly balls skyrocketed. Compared to even earlier in the 2022 season, his exit velocity on hits went down, he was less patient, his ground ball rate went up, but his HR/FB rate went from 7% (close to his career mark of 5.9%) to 19% (up there with the best power hitters in baseball). He squared up a handful of HR balls and it worked out really well for the White Sox, but unless he is turning into Barry Bonds, his HR rate isn't going to triple in his mid 30s. That means - as nice as it was that we got this performance and as hard as it will be to replace - counting on Elvis Andrus to do anything like that next season is as unlikely as counting on Cesar Hernandez to keep up his high HR rate from the first half of 2021 through the second half, and we saw who made that mistake. Elvis Andrus is going to come out next year and be a 0-1 win player, putting up a mid 600s OPS, because that is who he is at this point in his career. If he's a backup somewhere on a competitive team and he gets 300 plate appearances for $2 million, that's fine. if he's on a team likely to win 65 games and he plays 150 games, that's fine. He is not a starting player on a competitive big league roster. If Anderson is traded away and a rebuilding White Sox team needs someone to cover short for a year until Montgomery arrives, sure that's fine.