Balta1701

Now I want a beer. Yet I'm in a dry county. Sigh. I blame Conservatives.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Oct 8, 2010 -> 09:27 PM) Gotta disagree with you there, Rock. When they're all healthy, their lineup 2-6 is as good or better than any other in baseball. I agree with you about the Twins, though. People seem to forget that Morneau was on his way to an MVP season before going down. The Twins are also missing one of baseball's best relief pitchers.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 8, 2010 -> 09:04 AM) Balta, look. I'm not sure how to put this. There are things I can't even say here, for various reasons. But suffice to say that people who know the markets in a way neither you or I could dream of, feel that what I stated is true. And I don't understand how someone who knows at least basic economics can honestly say it doesn't matter how much money goes out the door, or what interest rates do, or inflation does. They are all key factors, they are all intertwined, and they all effect the markets in a big, big way. And NSS...these same people are the same ones who told us that housing prices could never go down, and ARM mortgages were a wonderful investment. These experts are the same people who bet after the stimulus package that they were shoveling out so much money that they could make a fortune betting on inflation. JPMorgan, for example, lost billions on that bet.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 8, 2010 -> 04:41 PM) Forcing banks to keep bad debt on their books only means there is less money to lend, especially when all of the focus is on tightening rules, increasing capital requirements, and the like. All it is doing is forcing banks to look at a Japan type scenario. They're not being forced to keep bad debt on their books right now...they've figured out how to make so much money off of that bad debt that they couldn't care less about getting it off the books. They get a family that misses a couple payments, they start the foreclosure process but don't tell the family so that the family keeps paying on the mortgage, they foreclose on the family anyway, and show up 1 day and evict them with no warning. They sell the house at near full value because it never sat empty, and they get the additional funds the first family paid on the mortgage. That's the new game. They do things as rapidly as possible between eviction and sale because they make the most money that way from both sides. The problem is they keep going overboard with the eviction process, to the point that they've literally broken into some people's homes. That got the government's attention, so now they "halt" all foreclosures and just let the people they're foreclosing on pay longer.

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Oct 8, 2010 -> 11:26 AM) This seems unnecessary and an obvious way to get a rise out of people. That sums up how I feel about the commentary on the Twins/White Sox matchup too.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 8, 2010 -> 08:37 AM) Stocks are not overvalued - stocks are priced as they are only partially because of expectations of general recovery. The other big thing looming that the markets know, is that as the economy does grow a bit more, interest rates and inflation HAVE to rise. There is no way around it, with the amount of money having been shoved out there. And that means, even in a neutral economy, money will flow into the equity markets, and stocks will rise. They know that's coming, but no one knows for sure when. Really, no, you're wrong. It doesn't matter how much total money is shoved out there, it matters the demand for it. Right now, there is huge demand for additional safe assets and the bond market is going in exactly the opposite direction of what you'd predict if anyone worried about inflation at all. Take a look at the graph I posted a couple days ago. Until we're out of the gigantic hole in production, inflation isn't going to happen, and unless we can get >3% growth per year, there's no way to get out of that hole. We're at nearly 10% unemployment. There's so much excess capacity right now that there is absolutely nothing that will push inflation in the next decade unless we do another stimulus at the federal level to get that output gap filled. The reason i think stocks are overvalued is that I don't see any real prospects for a sustained recovery. They've been boosted by a combination of the feds shoving out money and improving corporate profits...but those profits have come entirely from cutting back on employees and their spending. That's not a sustainable path towards improvement.

When I'm at a random airport or something that's fine, but I'm not going to eat there if I have better choices.

I don't have time to respond individually but let me put in the first word. I think this is nonsense. Half of the ideas here disagree with the other half. A 75% agreement requirement to pass anything would mean that there was no such thing as a government. None of your other ideas would ever happen with that requirement. A balanced budget in the middle of a depression makes the depression worse. Having the government decide where private institutions can spend their money isn't even something I'm interested in. Reaching out to enemies yet pulling back the entire U.S. military, that doesn't contradict? Becoming the world's greatest clean energy power...great...except we have no way to pay for it because you've killed off any means to do that.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Oct 8, 2010 -> 08:23 AM) Subway...$5 footlong.....can't beat that Taste improvements would be useful.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 8, 2010 -> 01:55 AM) Because he is definitely an above average player. But not nearly as above average as his "tools" suggest he should be, and if you were trading for him...you'd still wind up paying a premium price for those "tools".

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 8, 2010 -> 08:15 AM) Quizno's make burgers? Really enjoy their sandwiches but always felt they were overpriced.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 7, 2010 -> 10:29 PM) You also don't buy into markets having instant reactions to politicians talking, so that doesn't surprise me. Well, like when Bush talked about "Devaluation", which is something he actually could have pulled off, when he meant to say "Deflation", that's one thing. Or if Bernanke comes out and says he's going to do something, ditto. But think about the very words you said earlier...that it doesn't make much difference in either the short or medium term who is in power, maybe slightly in the long term. If the market is then moving rapidly based on minute details of speeches, or based on who is winning in polls...that sets up an easy, easy opportunity to beat the market; you simply bet against everything CNBC says would be good for the market because it's good for the Republicans. If the market moves rapidly based on rapid political developments that have zero ability to affect the market, then once that political development is off the front page, the market is going to return to the long term trend. That would mean if the Republicans win the House in November, I should wait until about November 5th and take out a huge leveraged short on the market, because if the Republicans have no short or medium term affect on profitability, then the boost you're saying exists would fade away within a short period and on average I'd win.

QUOTE (FlaSoxxJim @ Oct 7, 2010 -> 10:54 PM) My condolances to anyone who has never had a Top Notch burger. They are (were?) the best. Now we're going to start talking top burgers? Because i'll start us off with Redamak's.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 7, 2010 -> 10:27 PM) Short answer: enough people do that you do get a significant move out of stocks. I don't buy that for a second.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 7, 2010 -> 10:14 PM) All though with us back at about 11000, I'd be a seller now. I think stocks are building in a Republican win in the House, and I don't think it really matters fundamentally all that much right now over the medium term. You really think that actual investors buy that CNBC "republicans are great" crap to the point that it drives 20% swings in the DJIA?

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 7, 2010 -> 10:10 PM) Any chance Gardy loses his job for once again failing to get that team to the next level?

QUOTE (Middle Buffalo @ Oct 7, 2010 -> 10:07 PM) Head to McDonald's. Sure its a little touristy and cliche, but still a damn fine burger for an out of towner to savor. I think you've lost your mind.

QUOTE (kitekrazy @ Oct 7, 2010 -> 10:04 PM) and how bad the NL is. Every team the Reds played this year that has a winning record...the Reds were below .500 against them.

QUOTE (kitekrazy @ Oct 7, 2010 -> 09:51 PM) They were the best team in baseball since the ASB. When teams get hot they also cool off. So their timing could be off plus they are few missing pieces away from a World Series. Really though...that team on paper is good enough to win a world series, even without Nathan and Morneau. Their lineup is stacked, they've got a few defensive weaknesses but they balance that with some strong guys, and their rotation both has a legitimate Ace-caliber pitcher at the top and a whole lot of depth. They're not "a few missing pieces" away. They're a mental block away. Maybe they need to come back from a 3-0 deficit in a series to get the block out of their head.

QUOTE (Tex @ Oct 7, 2010 -> 02:39 PM) "Really wish you focused on the great economy in Texas, not the terrible schools." Rick Perry Longest serving Governor in state history Gotta point out again...big part of the reason why they have a great economy right now is that their housing market was perhaps the most heavily regulated of any in the country.

QUOTE (lostfan @ Oct 7, 2010 -> 09:48 PM) Even if you bought it in 2008 and sold it all tomorrow morning you're probably still coming out with more than twice the amount of cash you started with, plus a few dividends. I could say the exact same thing about having bought a condo in 2003 and sold in 2006.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Oct 7, 2010 -> 09:41 PM) Former players. Current players don't seem to be saying that. Not even Bill Billichick who isn't afraid to fight with anyone. Remember, this is the Patriots, so nothing will be on record, but this is just a taste of the anonymous ripping Moss is getting.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Oct 7, 2010 -> 09:37 PM) I hear what you are saying, but I just dont see them adding a 7 year-$140 million contract or whatever with Peavy & Rios deals still on the books. I could see them adding him at say, 5/$95. But they're simply not going to outbid the Yankees.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Oct 7, 2010 -> 08:00 PM) Agree to disagree then. I don't see how it was a selfish b move at all. They were ready to ask him about it. He stated his situation and left it alone, period. He didn't even say it like a villain itching to get out either. He just said, "This is probably my last year here, it's been a great ride, I appreciate my time here, but it is a business." That's at least the public story. You never know how much of the private story is true or not, but the moment he was gone, it seems like a dozen different players immediately started saying they couldn't stand him in the locker room, he was picking fights with coaches, complaining constantly about the game plans, etc.

QUOTE (lostfan @ Oct 7, 2010 -> 09:24 PM) Man do I wish I had a bunch of cash to invest then! I did, and I really don't regret not having moved it into stocks, just like I don't regret having rented in 2003-2006 when in hindsight it was pathetically easy to spot the peak of the housing market if you believed it was a bubble. I still think stocks are overvalued.