Balta1701

Ron Paul may have beaten Clinton in fundraising in the last quarter. Meanwhile...since Ron Paul is fundraising so well and actually beating people like Thompson in N.H. polls, rumor has it Fox News has decided that Ron Paul will not be on the stage for their debate. And here's what some of that money went to yesterday, over Pasadena.

This year's smattering of Rose Parade pictures can be found here, if anyone is interested.

QUOTE(KipWellsFan @ Jan 1, 2008 -> 04:50 PM) What exactly is on the line at the Iowa caucuses? Obviously momentum, but what is actually happening here that helps make someone a president. Are people being elected as delegates who will go to the convention at the end? I tried looking on wikipedia for an explanation of all this but it was still confusing. In 2004, the Iowa Caucuses for the Dems determined how the convention votes of 45 of the 4,366 voting delegates to the party convention will vote. As a practical matter, that is what is on the line, roughly 1% of the convention delegates.

And now, the real fun begins it seems. And if that werent' enough, McClatchy attempts to provide that whole motive thing.

QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 1, 2008 -> 10:47 AM) The Register certainly tends to have the pulse of Iowa. But Reddy is also right about this 7 point lead for Obama looking like a possible outlier. In any case, its going to be very, very close. Well, the other potential issue is that a lot of the polls showing Obama weakening and Clinton/Edwards gaining were taken during the Christmas period, where there's huge potentials for selection biases due to some types of people being more likely to be at home and poll-a-ble than others over that period. So for those polls you actually have to add additional salt to the usual analysis of the polling data simply because of the timing. Overall though...right now it's totally anyone's game.

So, it seems Huckabee put on a bizarre enough performance today to get the assembled/establishment media actually laughing at him.

According to the float the Dodgers have in the Rose Parade...44 more days till pitchers and catchers report!

QUOTE(scenario @ Dec 31, 2007 -> 04:54 PM) On Scott Reifert's blog, he says the baseball industry is 'closed' between Christmas eve (December 21st for the Sox offices) and January 3rd. Didn't the McCarthy trade happen in that window?

QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Dec 30, 2007 -> 03:11 PM) If the Bulls offered Noc + Gordon plus picks for Gasol, something could happen there. The way the Bulls are playing right now, the Bulls would be crazy to give up Noc + Gordon and to even consider thinking about their first rounder this year. They could well be looking at a mid to high lottery pick. Imagine that trade becoming Noc + Gordon + the other Gordon for Gasol. That's murder.

DNP - CD again for TT today. At least Noah got 17 minutes. Just trade him already.

CNBC

Yes, that's right, just keep kicking to Hester people.

QUOTE(RockRaines @ Dec 29, 2007 -> 03:28 PM) The team needs an offensive presence down low and neither Noah or TT bring that to the table. Pax drafted poorly for need and picked up defensive players and slashers when we really needed a big man who can handle the post with his back to the basket. Gray is the closest thing we have to that. This team needs an offensive presence down low at least to my eyes because the style of ball the team insists on playing requires one. The offense continues to try to play the inside-outside, slow it down, 2 man game type ball, and we have a roster not built to play that way. We have athletes in Deng, Gordon, Tyrus, Noah, Duhon, etc., and guys who can create the break by playing defense and generating turnovers/rebounds in Noah, Wallace, Tyrus, Hinrich, and Deng, but we don't take advantage of it. This team looks by far the best to me when they're moving quickly, moving the ball around, and using its quickness, youth, speed, and defense/rebounding players to generate easy shots. Thats what our roster screams. But we insist on playing slowed down games where the PG brings the ball up and we try to run the ball through the post to generate an open jump shot, which we're just not built to do. It negates our strengths and exacerbates our weaknesses, and it requires a guy like Gray or Smith be given minutes because they have that remarkable ability to stand in the post without moving around much. If we traded our athletes for a guy like Gasol, it could have worked better, but that would still require us keeping our key outside guys like Deng, Gordon, and Hinrich, which seems like it would kill that deal because the Grizz keep asking for those guys. So, if we can't get the personnel to fit the type of offense that the coach wanted, why not change the style of play a bit and try to play to our strengths.

QUOTE(max power @ Dec 29, 2007 -> 02:53 PM) Another problem is Josh has a better RBI/game number even if you were comparing the two. These crede fan boys really crack me up. I understand both sides here actually. If the Joe Crede of 2006 could appear and stay healthy for several seasons, I'd have no problem at all with Joe at 3rd. He might be a step below Josh offensively, but he's a step above defensively, and both of them actually have room for enough improvement to make up those gaps (Joe's numbers would have been even better in 06 if he hadn't had his back go out on him again in September). The thing that still pisses me off though is that thanks to Boras's medics, we're in a terrible situation where we either have to trade Fields and then have no choice but to sign Crede or we have to trade Crede when his value is near zero. If Joe would just have done the surgery in October of 06, like the teams' doctors wanted, then maybe Joe could have played some portion of the 07 season and proved he was healthy enough for another team to take a gamble on him. We're in a worse spot than the Phillies were after the 05 season with Thome/Howard...at least then, Thome still had some value and they could get something for him while moving in their young guy, and he was still under contract so whatever team went for him would get him for a couple years. Us on the other hand, have Crede, coming off a down/injured year, with only 1 year left before he's a FA, and no one having any idea if he's healthy. I dunno about you guys, but I still think Crede's decision to listen to Boras's medical people instead of the team's doctors after 06 and delay the surgery hurt us more than any other decision the team has made, including even the Anderson blowup.

QUOTE(WHarris1 @ Dec 29, 2007 -> 02:52 PM) While I actually do agree for the most part that Tyrus and Noah need more consistent minutes and they are being handled poorly, I don't see the sense in comparing Tyrus to Aaron Gray. You can't really compare their minutes because they are put on the floor to serve entirely different purposes. Gray gets in to take up space down low, use his size, clog the lane, and contribute some back to the basket offense. While Tyrus certainly cannot do that. It's not that Gray plays more minutes because he is the better player, it's because he fills a bigger need. The reason I brought Gray into this is that he's a rookie as well, and at least lately, he's a rookie who's been getting more PT than TT or Noah. I have no problem at all with playing Gray, but I have a problem with Gray getting 14 minutes, Wallace and Smith getting 55, and TT and Noah getting 4. And I have a problem with saying that TT needs to cut down on the fouls or the turnovers or to do something specific better when the stats say that Gray is putting up just as many or more fouls and TO's as TT, yet Gray sees time on the floor and TT doesn't.

I'll add these in there. Per 48 minutes, Tyrus Thomas scores 1.5 fewer points than Aaron Gray, has 1.2 more rebounds, 1 more blocked shot, .8 fewer turnovers, and .8 fewer turnovers (Yes, Gray turns the ball over more than TT). Yet, last night, Gray got 14 minutes to TT's 4. They also commit similar numbers of fouls. TT also grabs more steals. Noah scores a bit less, grabs the same number of rebounds, blocks even more shots, turns the ball over as many times as TT, and puts up similar foul numbers. And he gets a DNP-CD. These guys are already, at a young age, putting up effective numbers, which one would expect would improve with time given their ages and inexperience. But Between our 2 last top 10 picks, they got 4 minutes yesterday and barely see the floor outside of crunch time. I lik eboth of the picks, i like the athletes, i like how they could play with the other guys in this system. But if we're going to keep giving Ben Wallace and Joe Smith 50+ minutes per game and, then these guys are simply wasted, and we might as well move them because they do nothing for us sitting at the end of the bench thinking "Damn I'm talented". If we're not going to play them, then trade them while they still have some value and let some other team develop them.

QUOTE(WHarris1 @ Dec 29, 2007 -> 02:17 PM) This is of course ignoring the fact that there is a reason those guys play more than 4 minutes a game and Tyrus doesn't right? I'm personally a big fan of how Tyrus put up 19/12 against the Pistons our first meeting this season, and then got a DNP-CD our next game against them. Or how Noah, for example, has been one of the most effective rookies out there per minute if you believe the stats, but Noah barely sees the court either (DNP-CD for him last night too). And, I also wonder...how much of Roy/Aldridge being effective this year is due to them, you know, playing last year? Guys just don't get better sitting on the bench. I have this feeling that 2 more years are going to go buy, TT is going to walk as a FA having never averaged more than 15 minutes per game for us, and he'll wind up turning into a steal like Jermaine O'Neal was when he first came to the Pacers. Talented guy buried on the bench, doesn't ever get a full committed chance to work through those issues, and winds up doing so on some other team.

QUOTE(whitesoxfan101 @ Dec 28, 2007 -> 09:37 PM) Now Tyrus did have an even worse night than usual, but those numbers are pretty close to normal for the boys in Portland, who have won 12 in a row in the mighty Western Conference. Scott Skiles isn't the reason this team is where it's at, John Paxson is. I wonder what kind of numbers Aldridge/Roy would be putting up if they only got 4 minutes of playing time every game.

QUOTE(Reddy @ Dec 29, 2007 -> 08:02 AM) they are getting the crowds dude. the events i mentioned were: Edwards: Tipton, IA pop. 3,100 Obama: Iowa City/Coralville: 62,000 so in doing that math... IC/Coralville is 20 times larger than Tipton. Even if you take that 900 number Edwards outdrew Obama per capita. If you go with the real number of 450... well... Edwards crushes Obama. While, as we all know crowds prove essentially nothing, today both Edwards and Obama are in Davenport.

To save money, Bank of America will no longer be supplying its workers with such luxuries as soup in the cafeterias, flavored teas, and hand soap in the bathrooms. It will be a long time before I shake hands with anyone at BofA.

QUOTE(YASNY @ Dec 29, 2007 -> 08:49 AM) I don't deny 'climate change'. I do think it's because the sun is putting out more heat. Nothing more. Back in the 11th century, they were growing grapes in England. That was 'global warming'. It happens and it is real. But it is cyclical and beyond the control of man. Do we need to keep our output of CO2 down? Yes. Do we need to improve on environmental responsibility. Of course! But to say that man is causing global warming is just jumping to conclusions that just cannot be backed up. Ah, one of the contrarians finally gives me a reason to insert the detailed description of the history of english wine production that Realclimate did a few months back.

Here's my summary. Is Owens going to be the best leadoff hitter in baseball next year? No. Simply impossible due to his low slugging. But, can JO give us something valuable? Perhaps. His minor league numbers and his major league numbers suggest it's at least possible for him to put up a .290/.350/.350, roughly where Podsednik was in 05 pre-injury, and over a full season with those numbers he'd probably steal 70 bases on top of it with a good (80%) clip. If he could put up those numbers, he would be a very effective leadoff hitter. He would be on base in front of Thome a lot, he'd annoy the Hell out of pitchers, he'd pair well with Cabrera, and he'd guarantee a lot of fastballs for our 2 and 3 hitters. Is that Owens ceiling? No, but it's close to it. He could probably raise the average some and have his OBP go up with that, and maybe steal a few more bases than that. That's probably close to his slugging ceiling though. Defensively, he's not a star, but in CF, he's adequate. He's a step down from Rowand/Anderson, but he makes up for errors with good closing speed and can cover some ground. Adequate, not great, weak with the arm but unless Anderson starts hitting that's the best we've got. So, that's the positive side. What's the downside? Well, September could well have been a fluke. He could well come out next year and look like a faster version of the 06-07 Podsednik with less power. Maybe he hits a home run or two, and he hits something like .240 or .250. In that case, he probably loses that leadoff job after a couple months, and we are left basically where we are now; without a CF unless Anderson/Sweeney turn it around. No one here can guarantee me that Owens is going to suck next year or that September was a fluke, just like I can't guarantee that he'll give me that .350 OBP I want from him next year. If he does that, then we're in good shape, if not then we're looking for a replacement again next offseason. Either way, for $400k, I think he's a fair gamble out there, as if he were to succeed, even minimally, he solves both our CF problem and our Leadoff hitter problem for several years in one fell swoop.

QUOTE(WHarris1 @ Dec 28, 2007 -> 04:32 PM) In Pasadena unable to drink since I'm on coumadin, but with the game being the next day I have no desire to feel like s*** on the 1st anyway, so I guess it works out. Welcome to my area. I'd offer to buy you a beer but it seems you couldn't enjoy it.

Bureau...suddenly i'm finding myself trusting your scouting abilities a lot less

I'm not sure there's a candidate out there who hasn't embarrassed himself/herself in some fashion in the Bhutto matter. Huckabee just seems to be making an art form of it. The more I see of this guy, the more I'm hoping the other side picks him as the nominee. He's folksy and he's got the Colbert bump, but he seems to be worse than Dean or Bush ever were in saying stupid things that the media would go after.