Balta1701

IMO - they already answered that question last week when they were the team that traded 2 top-100 or whatever prospects for Realmuto. They didn't have to do that move, they could have looked more long term, but they made their minor leagues weaker long term in order to make their big league squad competitive this year.

Adding Harper would push their 2020 payroll, on paper, to about $175 million, but we're talking about a franchise that had a $180 million payroll in 2012.

I'm not even really thinking about fan pressure or the remarks by the owner with that statement, I'm just thinking about their ballclub. They made themselves better this offseason with Realmuto, McCutchen, and Segura, but is that enough to take their team from last year and catch last year's Braves? I dunno, maybe. The Phillies' pitching was strong last year, but their offense was weak, so upgrading the offense is the priority. The Philles' players are young and could get better, but so could the Braves, and the Braves also added Donaldson and could still add more. The The Phillies have money to spend, they have potential to sell a lot more tickets when their franchise is competitive (attendance has dropped from 3.5 million to 2 million while they rebuilt), and they only have Realmuto for 2 years before he's a free agent so they're under pressure to put a team on the field that rivals the Braves right now before that FA step hits. From a baseball perspective, they have to get this done. It's like the White Sox with Machado, there is literally no excuse with where their team currently sits to not add that player, and if it costs them $50 million more than any other team but the player is still getting a fair contract, it would be idiotic not to get it done.

One alternate way to say it: With where the Phillies organization currently sits, failing to put a $330 million offer on the table to Harper is approximately as stupid as the White Sox failing to meet a $300 million asking price for Machado. I would be open to arguments that it is dumber. They may not want to pay that much, they may not want to bid against themselves, but they need that player and that is a fair contract for that player, and even if they outbid what everyone else is bidding substantially, it's still a fair contract for the player.

At some point soon Harper and the Phillies are going to sit down and hammer out a 10 year, $330 million+ guaranteed deal, with an opt out somewhere in it, and it'll get done.

While I'd rather see Palka as DH, I also don't see the harm in running him out to the OF every day for a year. If his defense doesn't improve, oh darn we lose more games.

While a good point, also important is that those 2 friends were actually really good ballplayers.

It would absolutely not be surprising if one of those many names stepped up and became a quality middle-of-the-rotation starter (outside of Cease). With that number of guys, it'd honestly be a little disappointing if none of them did.

You can find me giving Hahn credit for moving Eaton when he did in another thread yesterday, but I cannot say I would be satisfied with getting only 1 middle-to-back-of-the-rotation starter out of that deal even if they're pre-arb. Coming off his performance in the previous 3 seasons, even with his injury history, someone should have given up more than that - and hell, the teams thought that deal was almost good enough for Sale until the Red Sox put Moncada on the table. If we just scouted those pitchers that poorly that all we get is 2 busts and one back of the rotation guy...that's a pretty rotten result.

While that is true, and it would be nice that he is cheap, put it another way. A guy putting up 2.75 fWAR would be the #5 starter on the 2018 Indians and he would be the #5 starter on the 2018 Astros. That's not awful, but compared to what actual good teams are getting out of their rotations - getting nothing other than that out of Eaton is a path to 0 playoff births any time soon unless our offense is the best in baseball. Grumbles something about how nice it would be to have an elite offensive 3b and moves on.

Uh, dude, you selected 4 years and not 3. You started at 2015 and ended at 2018 for 4 seasons. I accidentally found out the mistake you did by clicking that. If you sort by only 3, the #30 starter is Marcus Stroman with 8.4 fWAR. Cole Hamels's 11 fWAR is over the last 4 years, so that's 2.75 per season.

The #30 starter last year in fWAR was Rick Porcello with 2.7 fWAR. I would not be satisfied with the Eaton trade if the best we got out of it was a guy who averaged 2.7 fWAR per year. I'm not sure I'd be ok with Rick Porcello, who basically averages 2.5 fWAR every year except 1 year randomly dropped 5.2 and won the Cy Young. Jon Gray and David Price both tied with Rick Porcello at 2.7 fWAR last year and at least in the regular season both of them were disappointments. Top 30 really isn't that impressive, not given what Eaton should have been worth coming off a 5.8 fWAR season.

I'm genuinely surprised it wasn't today. It should be ASAP. I will be surprised each day that the Phillies and Boras don't get this done to get him in camp.

But they're no where near certain, a smart GM might well maneuver around them, it's a bet on things you can't bet on (How Healthy will he be in 8 years)...and the Padres threw him a MUCH better version of non-guaranteed years in the 5 year opt out. If the Padres were at $250 million guaranteed with a 5 year opt-out and the White Sox were at $250 million guaranteed with 2 options, I'd still pick the opt out. The White Sox's deal was a request for a giant discount.

Well compared to what Eaton is worth now sure because injuries have made him practically worthless. But here's the question that should be asked in reply - what are you defining as TOR? If he's Jacob DeGrom next year...YAY! If he's a 4 WAR starter like Quintana 1 year and then follows the Gavin Floyd path of inconsistent years afterwards, is that good enough, have you counted #2/#3 guys as TOR?

Ironically or not, 2 of the 3 that were just posted to show that players do regularly hit those goals had <400 plate appearances at age 33. The other one had <400 plate appearances at age 36. So while those players, chosen to illustrate the point, had >550 PAs and demonstrated it was possible, they also had seasons RIGHT NEXT TO THOSE where they would have missed the option if it had sat in those seasons.

The stuff Bruce was running in the Machado sweepstakes (the Sox were at $175 and then were playing around with other things to increase the value over time in January) fits very well with the notes that the White Sox increased their offer to Machado several times in the last few weeks and that they were looking for ways to increase the dollar value without adding to the guarantee (consistent with the vesting options).

And the thing they will never ever learn is that by staying out on the big names and going for the mid level names, the guys making $10-$20 million a year, they make those mistakes far more likely.

San Diego reportedly put $280 on the table last week at some point, and Lozano took that offer to the 2 other teams saying so. He didn't say they'd sign but he told the other teams the new high offer. On Monday he went to all 3 teams and put $300 million guaranteed on the table. The White Sox countered with a slightly better offer than what they had on the table beforehand, but an offer that was already worse than the previous one they were told San Diego had offered. So, they clearly did not believe the San Diego offer even though they were told it. San Diego just said "Yes we'll take it".

With how the final few days went down it is 100% clear that the White Sox do not have the same price point as other teams for top flight players and that will infect every move they try to make from now on. You do not cockily insist that you will be adding a middle of the order hitter even at Soxfest and add the guys relatives and then slap up a wall saying you will not go to a salary that everyone else thought the guy would get. You do not ignore their offer on Monday if you understand player costs.That is a clear, systemic problem. If you think you’ll get the guy if there’s a huge discount, you don’t do all the other stuff. You do that if you don’t realize you’re demanding a huge discount.

If the White Sox are saying "This is a lock" and leaking that to everyone who will listen, and you pass on that "The White Sox are saying this is a lock", that's fair. If someone comes back and asks "Does that mean they will do this contract if it goes to $300 million" and you pass those people off as poorly informed and call them names from your privileged perspective, that's different from passing on the information. Your response to that should be something along the lines of "I honestly don't know what that means, if they think no one will bid that and they're a lock for that reason or they are willing to go far past that if it comes to it" - that would have been the honest answer. Instead we get "how dare you say that we're out on Harper haha I know more than you".

I think that the White Sox leaked like a sieve for the last 2 months because it tells such a complete story. I think WSD was right and the White Sox seriously increased their offer to Machado right around Soxfest, and he probably heard "The White Sox are going to sign Machado this weekend for 8/$200" or something that was a ridiculously low contract, but the White Sox's player valuations are so screwed up that the White Sox organization believed that was a fair offer that Machado's side would jump at. They said to everyone who would listen "we have a great offer on the table and they're going to sign it this weekend", because the org believed it. I would bet he's basing that tweet on how the org is sounding right now.

He spent a lot of time working with a catcher who was excellent in framing - AJ - right?

Thank you for sharing that content.