Balta1701

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 01:20 PM) This would be an absurd move by the Sox. I really don't understand why a rebuilding Marlins would want to move Fernandez, unless of course they get blown away. He's arbitration eligible for the first time, which means any team that gets him gets him for 3 years right now. After this year, his value could start going down - you'd only get him for 2 years if you trade for him next offseason. The Marlins also play cheap in the process, which they're good at. Basically, the time when there is "pressure" to trade him starts in July, and they will very likely have to do so next offseason unless they have a really good team around him. Throw in a dash of "injury risk" and listening now makes sense.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 12:41 PM) I would say taking on some cash propelled the Blue Jays. Not a stellar farm system. 1. They were, in fact, ranked #5 in 2012. My statement continues to be 100% accurate. 2. Taking on money helped yes, but why were they able to trade for David Price? Why were they able to trade for Josh Donaldson (aside from Billy Beane being a fool unless he's negotiating with the White Sox)? Ditto Tulowitzki? They were able to do so because they had chips to cash in. 3. Why were they able to let Melky Cabrera walk and still get better? Because they had a young defender ready to step in. 4. Why were they able to "take on some cash"? Because they developed enough of their own guys or traded for undervalued guys...leaving them room to "take on some cash". It's not the only part. They are obviously better than our franchise at getting the best out of their hitters as well; Bautista, Encarnacion all testify to that. But no where did I say "it is the only part". There's always disagreement of course, maybe some other pub puts a team 7-8 when BA puts them top 5, but that's a good proxy for "having a strong-ish system". It's no guarantee. Being a top 5 franchise in the BA listings does not guarantee you will turn that into success. However, in 2015, it was a necessary but not sufficient condition. 0 teams made it that did not make the top 5 in recent years. In 2015, if you did not recently have a top 5 system in the BA numbers you did not make the playoffs. 0/10 slots filled by what the white sox tried to do is as strong of a message as baseball can send you.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 8, 2015 -> 12:22 PM) The Sox have control of Sale though 2019. With the nagging fear of serious injury, and the regular nagging injuries keeping that have followed him around annually, I wouldn't be looking to extend him unless it was incredibly team friendly with options. 7 years and $150 million is "incredibly team friendly" to me compared to what he'll get if he's actually a free agent after 2019. If you thought he was healthy and you could ink him to that deal...you could again be calling it "still a great bargain" in 2020. Only reason why you wouldn't do that if he was willing...is health.

Why not? Here are the 10 teams that made the playoffs last year. Texas Rangers Houston Astros Kansas City Royals New York Yankees Toronto Blue Jays Chicago Cubs Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Los Angeles Dodgers New York Mets Out of those 10 teams....every single one has been in the top 5 of Baseball America's prospect rankings in the last 5 years. Every single one. Even the f***ing Yankees and Dodgers, who still spent $500 million between them last year. 10/10. What does that mean? They either have a supply of their own guys they can rely on directly (Mets, Royals, Cubs, basically all of them, etc.) or they have guys available to trade for assets (Blue Jays, Cardinals, Royals, etc.) The number of teams that made the playoffs in 2014 while "rapidly retooling", without developing a strong system to support that retooling, was 0. Zero teams were able to spend their way or sneak their way into the playoffs in 2015 while doing what the White Sox want to do. And out of those teams...we're not going to be the biggest spenders. In other words, we need to somehow be "luckier than every other team that tries this". The games are giving you a clear message about what works and what doesn't. Free Agency and spending money, without a strong system of support, worked for 0 teams last year. Ignoring that message is how we got here.

Not even sure I want to any more, but apparently good chance I'll be paying for this film in order to see one of the trailers hooked to it.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 7, 2015 -> 03:31 PM) As a long-term move, Upton makes sense on the surface -- the swing in productivity on both sides of the ball from Avi to Upton would be staggering, and the guy is only 28 -- but the cost is high, even if he's "worth it" in terms of dollars to productivity. Realistically, if you're going to have "building block" players that eat up ~$20-25m of your yearly payroll, you have to be willing to continually increase said payroll to patch up the holes that inevitably appear elsewhere. The Dodgers make it work, but the Sox have yet to show such a tendency. Otherwise, it ends up as more of a "HAIL MARY" move, like the Padres just became famous for. I can't support a move for Upton in that context. If you're going to sign Upton for this year I can't fathom why you'd have let Alexei walk.

QUOTE (SnB @ Dec 7, 2015 -> 11:19 AM) That was the first bears game I attended at "new" soldier field. That was.........dissapointing. The game or the spaceship?

As of right now, I can see making a case that the Warriors would still lose against those Bulls teams if you could somehow account for the rules changes...but I am getting to the point where if you tell me "The Warriors are farther ahead of the rest of the league than any other team in my lifetime" I'm having trouble disagreeing.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 03:17 PM) If everything about Samardzija was predictable and he performed exactly as you expected, how come you said the White Sox shouldn't risk offering him the QO, and posted many times he wouldn't sign until May? I'm genuinely surprised anyone wants him, but the lesson I'm going to learn from that is "the people playing the free agent market are even stupider than I think". Will you learn that lesson as well? However, the "shouldn't risk offering him the QO" is you again projecting your own prejudices.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 02:55 PM) This is a great post and you make numerous good points. What I'm referring to is nobody had foreseen the collapse of LaRoche, Eaton's dWAR going from 1.8 in '14 to -1.1 in '15, the collapse of Samardzija. Samardzija didn't "Collapse" though, as I said above he put up exactly the same fWAR he put up in 2013 and 2014. You can't be surprised by that! You can't be surprised when "Guy doesn't put up career year!" Eaton's defense was worse in 2015, but he produced more runs on offense and was a better baserunner, making him about the same player overall per game, and he played more games. And yes, you couldn't predict the collapse of LaRoche specifically, but if you sign 3 free agents, you should expect 1 of them to collapse. Maybe it would have been Cabrera, maybe Robertson, but 1 of them was going to fail badly. Especially if those 3 FAs are the mid-level guys where the risk seems to be the highest - for highest level FAs, sometimes teams just don't have the money to sign guys and they are legitimately outbid, but at the mid-level, every guy you sign is a guy the team could sign and they say "He's not worth it". Every guy we signed was a guy that their own team could have signed and they decided they had better places to spend their money. If you're counting on zero out of 3 of those guys to fail...your season will be a failure because at least one, maybe more than 1 will be disappointing or extremely bad. QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 02:55 PM) From my POV there were some things the Sox should have seen coming but there were some things they couldn't have seen coming without advice from Nostradamus first. If "things that happen to everyone" are "terrible luck" when they happen to your team, the problem is your plan. You couldn't predict the specific things that happen...but you could absolutely predict "some bad things will happen". Maybe it's not a 36 year old hitting the wall at mid-season, it's a pitcher spraining an ankle or Chase Utley sliding into 2nd base against you. We built a team that needed nothing to go wrong whatsoever, then bet $120 million and traded away a bunch of players based on that bet. That's a sucker bet!

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 06:12 AM) I agree with you here but just to be clear I wasn't only referring to the Samardzija trade when I said " No way could anyone could have envisioned so many things going wrong on so many levels". That was an over all reference to the numerous other things that went wrong along with Samardzija's bad season. Another thing I'd like to clarify real quick is that while I was very much against the Samardzija trade, in no way did I think he would be as bad as he was in '15. I definitely did not see that coming. The White Sox did not have that many things go wrong. The specific discussion there is on Samardzija - Samardzija in 2012 put up 2.7 fWAR, Samardzija in 2013 put up 2.7 fWAR...Samardzija in 2015 put up 2.7 fWAR. Combine bad defense behind him with playing in the AL and basically his season was close to "comparable with what you'd expect from him". That's what the Giants are paying him to do. If "a guy not putting up a career year" is something going wrong, the problem is not with things going wrong, it's your planning. Then take a look at the FA market. I looked through the list of last year's FAs. If you go through the list of guys who signed for legit money (not replacement players) you'll find that if you picked 3 at random, you'd get about 1 guy who lived up to his contract, 1 guy who was ok but disappointed relativet o his money, and the third guy would be a bust. The White Sox signed 3 big FAs last year, Robertson lived up to or even slightly exceeded his money, Cabrera was disappointing, and LaRoche was a bust. Our performance in the FA market last year was just about average. Duke disappointed, but we got a helluva lot more wins out of Soto than anyone imagined. The problem wasn't the White Sox having "so many things go wrong", it was the White Sox believing they could somehow outsmart the FA market to completely rebuild their roster. On top of that, look at defense. Name a strong defender the White Sox brought in. The defense being terrible was basically item #1 on our preseason plan. That can't be treated as something going wrong when we did nothing to make it any better. Then look at our guys. The org penciled in Garcia to be a near all star last year. What did they do to make that happen? As far as I can tell they stuck their fingers in their ears and said louder "He'll be great!" any time someone pointed out an issue with him. There was no overhaul of his approach at the plate. He was the same weak hitter and crappy defender on April 1 that he was on September 30. Then Hell, we brought up a 2b who had injury problems and a month of experience above AA and we were totally shocked that he didn't have a good approach in the running game, couldn't stay healthy, and was weak on defense. Gillaspie and Flowers had better seasons in 2014 than 2015, but are you going to say you were 100% confident in those guys? Enough to bet a $120 million payroll? The fact that we are surprised by these things is sad. Saying "guys will be great!!!" more loudly doesn't make them better players. The moves they had to make these guys better, new hitting coach and new baserunning coach, did jack squat or even made them worse, and that was seemingly a huge part of the White Sox's plan to compete. Turn it around. If the White Sox had somehow won 88 games last year, what would we be saying about some of the other things that happened? "The White Sox were insanely healthy last year. Sale missed 1 start on the DL, aside from that, name a key player that spent time on the DL. Albers on a self inflicted wound? No one got seriously hurt. Our entire starting rotation stayed healthy. Our entire starting lineup stayed healthy. Our closer stayed healthy. A couple guys missed games here and there and that was it. The year beforehand, Abreu hit the 15 day DL, Garcia hit the 60 day DL, Sale missed 6 weeks, and Eaton missed like 6 weeks. None of those guys got hurt! On top of that, no one got their knee torn up by a guy sliding in at 2nd, there were no freak OF collisions, no one broke a hand on a HBP, how on Earth did all that happen?" Baseball teams don't get that lucky with health, it's unheard of. Then who had Trayce coming up and hitting like Mike Trout for 2 months? Who predicted Saladino coming up and being one of the best IF defenders in the league? This team was built on the assumptions that: high-risk older guys would get better or at least not get old, everyone would stay healthy, defense didn't matter, and talent would develop because we said it would. This was not "everything going wrong". This was "Everything playing out exactly the way it was supposed to...but the people in the front office deluding themselves into believing the rules didn't apply to them."

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 01:27 PM) Looking at the needs of both teams I wouldn't be surprised if a deal centered around Robertson for Castro was discussed. Ugh. If they want me to take on Castro they can have LaRoche or Melky. You know, someone I don't want.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 07:22 PM) Santana's value was higher than Sale's. The difference is going to be contracts. The argument is that his contract is worth at least a 3rd top 10 prospect in baseball. I'm arguing it's really not. Santana was already the sure fire best pitcher in baseball and best of his generation at the time. It's the equivalent of Clayton Kershaw being traded by the Dodgers right now. There's nothing that says his contract is worth 2 extra great prospects. That's ludicrous. I know it's not the end-all be-all, but it's an easy stat to check so I checked it. In the year before he was traded, Santana was worth 4.0 fWAR. Last year Sale was worth 6.2. In the 2 years before he was traded, Santana was worth 10.7 fWAR. In the last 2, Sale's been worth 11.4. Santana may already have been the best pitcher of his time, but he also was noticeably trending down. More HR, fewer GB, fewer innings, ERA jumped by more than 1/2 a run. Based solely on performance in the year or two before the trade...it's very close to a wash.

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 07:14 PM) What does this mean? You can say there's a pattern of these guys not lasting all that long and so far you're right. Tanaka - elbow problem within a year. Matsuzaka, one big league season with 200 innings. Iwakuma, 1 all-star level year, then down to 130 innings last year. The hitters might be an exeption, but Iguchi didn't last all that long, Fukudome broke down pretty quick. You've got guys like Ichiro and Hiroki Kuroda who are the exceptions, but in general he's not wrong. If we're looking at the Japanese market, it might be another of those "make sure you're ready to compete with this guy this year because the long term risk is high" moves.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 06:57 PM) I know Contreras is a heck of a prospect but are you trying to show how much or how little we might expect in a potential deal? My uncertainty comes from the Kimbrel haul but I realize Robertson is not Kimbrel either so that's why I feel rather clueless as to Robertson's value. I wouldn't object to a nice return for Robertson and free up money to help the offense. I think he's a solid, talented player at a position of need, not guaranteed to be a success, top 5 player in a system that is decent if you still count some of the guys they don't have room for yet, who is 1+ years away from the big leagues and thus won't be able to help that team compete this year but could really help us to have down the road. That's what I'd ask for Robertson. Cubs have a couple guys like that you could swap in and probably make me content, but that level of player.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 06:52 PM) He supposedly shoved her and won't be charged. It that is enough for me, and I really would have loved the Sox to get him, to say pass. What is next? He does not need to be charged for the Commish to decide to discipline based on their now-in-force policy.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 06:42 PM) I frankly haven't looked into the situation much, but didn't Puig like push his sister? Its not like he cold clocked his GF in an elevator and dragged her across the floor knocked out or anything... Not saying he is a good guy. I've had very minimal interest in Puig since people started pushing for him this past Summer, but from the little I have heard of the situation, it doesn't seem quite fair to convict him a woman beater yet. That said, there may be more to the story that I haven't heard. And that's why you should steer clear of him. Don't do something stupid then get caught standing when the music stops.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 06:36 PM) You're asking a baseball team to give up the 3 of the top ten prospects in all of baseball who are as young and cost controlled for not the #1 pitcher in baseball. No one has been able to cite an example of when a team came even close to doing that when asked. They want to say he's under a bargain deal. So is Felix Hernandez, so is Jose Fernandez. I doubt Florida even asks for that type of haul. But no team has cited an example of a guy being traded to rebuild a weak roster *That* far before free agency either, right? Such that the package should be unprecedented?

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 06:33 PM) But he hasn't been. None of it matters unless he's kicked from the league. The incident happened 1 week ago. Of course he hasn't been yet. For *right now*, he should be viewed as having the plague; if you trade for him he could infect your team. If we had a 2 month investigation first and knew what the results were, fine, but the winter meetings are happening now.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 06:30 PM) Even with last year, look at his stats and his age and his health. He's far from worthless. He has down value, but he ain't worthless. None of that matters if he's suspended.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 06:26 PM) Honestly, I have no idea what Robertson's value is. I'd like to think it's pretty good but I'm just not sure so I cannot really say who I would target from the cubs if they were interested. Wilson Contreras.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 04:50 PM) You guys are still talking about Puig as a player worth acquiring a week after a domestic violence incident??? QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 05:02 PM) F*** that, I wouldn't care if we had the best change of scenery record in the league, he's useless and basically valueless right now. Per agreement last season the commish has a right to suspend a guy with no limit for domestic violence incidents. At least let the investigation finish first, at this rate another incident and he could be suspended for a season. And that's on top of the joy of "acquiring guys with domestic violence incidents" in their background. QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 06:25 PM) I would do that in a heartbeat. 2 + Puig + Crawford. Repeating this. Puig right now should be viewed as worthless.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 06:07 PM) I didn't like the idea myself because of Samardzija, his impending FA and that was before the trade. Also didn't like giving up Bassitt or Ravelo but s*** happens I suppose. Despite not agreeing with it, I understand the logic behind the trade since the Sox truely believed they would be contenders but things didn't work. No way could anyone could have envisioned so many things going wrong on so many levels. I know, I know, thread derailment. The bolded is completely false.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 05:38 PM) They'll sign Cueto and another starter and be just fine. And if they're content with that move...spending a lot of money in a lateral move in a division that just got better...then more power to them. The other side of that would be....Sale's contract is *SO* cheap, they could still sign Cueto and a FA or two to fill positions of guys they traded away and actually be a better team overall. But if they're content with where they are right now, spending money to stay level in a division with Arizona making a move, then that's their call.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 05:34 PM) Then there's no reason to trade him. Massive Godfather offer or he stays. It's that simple. It's one of best contract bargains in all of baseball. And the Dodgers better be ok with missing the playoffs this season if those guys need 1-2 years to adapt to the big leagues.