mr_genius

QUOTE (Reddy @ Oct 31, 2012 -> 04:47 PM) Like Obama is the first 100% american, but some how still somehow a Kenyan, President? not really the same. unless Obama is claiming to being Kenyan to get a job (President). which would be weird.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 31, 2012 -> 05:00 PM) Well yeah, obviously the Jersey and NY shore areas were what got it the worst. I don't remember indicating otherwise. New Jersey got messed up!

QUOTE (MexSoxFan#1 @ Oct 31, 2012 -> 02:54 PM) Warren is winning that seat, that's what I meant. will she be the first 100% white, but some how still somehow a Cherokee, senator?

links to the early voting numbers you are talking about? I found this http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fi...tperforms-2008/

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 30, 2012 -> 06:16 PM) Romney making big pushes now in PA and the loose ME district. They've got oodles of money to spend, so, why not? Anyone think, if he loses in 2012, Romney might run a third time in 2016? Become like the Gephardt of the GOP - the perpetual candidate? he won't run again, but if he did he would lose in the GOP primary.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Oct 30, 2012 -> 05:25 PM) Hahaha the comedian is back. What is funny, is you are actually proving my point. You just still cant grasp the concept. Models are built for numerous events over time. If a model is wrong on a single event, that does not necessarily mean that the model is wrong. In order to determine if the model is wrong you would need lots of events, to determine if it was accurate within a certain tolerance. But thanks for once again proving why whether Silver is right or wrong this election, it doesnt mean that his model is flawed, it just means he was right or wrong this election. Because no where is anyone saying "100% certainty" just like a weatherman says "70% chance of rain". If it doesnt rain that day, its not necessarily that the model was wrong, it very well could be the model was right, this just fell into the 30% category. as your humble student, i am surprised. that's what i have said from the start! looks like the student has become the grand master. looks like all that college math has paid off too, i won an internet debate (finally). i am emailing the university of illinois to thank them for making me take all these requirements for a silly computer science degree. just look at all this crap they make you do! https://wiki.engr.illinois.edu/display/unde...ee+Requirements it's now all worth it.

QUOTE (Cknolls @ Oct 29, 2012 -> 08:46 PM) Hey regardless what you think about Rasmussen, give the man some props for giving us ESPN. i do give him props for that, even if he did sell too early.

QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 30, 2012 -> 12:44 PM) LOL: Nate Silver ✔ @fivethirtyeight CAN'T BELIEVE METOROLOGISTS USED MATH AND SCIENCE TO PREDICT THIS STORM. THEY MUST BE MAGIC WIZARDS. no no no, math and science cannot be trusted. it's all a 50/50 coin flip. that's why Nate Silver's 95% forecast of a calm, clear night in NY last night was actually perfectly reasonable.

QUOTE (He_Gawn @ Oct 29, 2012 -> 07:07 PM) Be jealous... I was just on a 4 day fall break and binged on this every single day.... i am jealous

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Oct 29, 2012 -> 06:26 PM) You didnt even get that my comment was nothing more than a joke about you patting yourself. any post that calls Joe Scarborough an expert is very likely to be joke post in itself. even better if it's a joke that is worked into a Nate Silver critique.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Oct 29, 2012 -> 06:26 PM) you keep claiming to be some sort of expert because of your anecdotal relationships? anecdotal evidence is the most reliable. as a high powered lawyer you should know this.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Oct 29, 2012 -> 06:16 PM) When someone cant grasp the difficult concept, I have to start at the most basic. thank you for your kindness and patience while sharing your most exceptional wisdom and intellect.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Oct 29, 2012 -> 06:17 PM) Because you are the one who is acting like understanding math is some difficult concept. no, actually, i'm not. but if you must know i have actually taken plenty of mathematics back in the day while navigating my way through school. but that's irrelevant. we want to hear about how smart you are.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Oct 29, 2012 -> 06:05 PM) I dont think anyone followed your lead on this, its just what you should learn in grade school stats.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Oct 29, 2012 -> 06:05 PM) Just because the coin should land heads 50% of the time, doesnt mean it will. oh well look who's back, the coin flip expert.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 29, 2012 -> 05:57 PM) http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/20...e-silver/58460/ well, from the people i know, the Conservatives all have engineering, math, business, or tech degrees. But I suppose no of us are mad at Silver and my anecdotal evidence may be worse than Silver's statistics. Also, my brilliant liberal friends have no degree, or arts degree, and definitely can't solve a math problem. but they have lots of books in their house (the books are there to prove how smart they are)

QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 29, 2012 -> 11:55 AM) But is leading by a point nationally. I don't believe this will be a pop vote diff. than state vote election. So either the state polls or the national polls are wrong. Typically it's the national, but I think it's closer for Romney than the state polls indicate. Supposedly, there are a couple new polls out that show Ohio a tie, or a Romney lead. It was reported on FOX therefore one of the polls was Rasmussen, so who knows.

looks like the experts are following my lead by calling into question Nate Silver's brilliance. http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/1...win-147618.html

Right now it's not looking too good for mittens. Trails by a couple points in a bunch of states he needs to win.

anyone get windows 8? care to give a review?

QUOTE (Y2HH @ Oct 24, 2012 -> 05:49 PM) IMO, Apple has started making some major rush to market gaffes as of late, whether this has to do with new leadership or not I have no idea. ^^^

QUOTE (flippedoutpunk @ Oct 25, 2012 -> 03:47 PM) Time to switch the ol' Major i see yep

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 11:29 PM) next time compare me to Lionel Hutz What about the lawyer from Night Court?

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 09:54 PM) The part you seem to not understand is Im not talking about voters being 1 to 1, Im talking about the results. Silver has only predicted 1 presidential election. When you are talking about millions of people and their life expectancy, you have millions of deaths to base it on. Thus you can find trends and see if the model is working. When you have a model that can be tested only 1 time every 4 years it is almost impossible to tell if the model is working. Which is why I compared it to them predicting my death. Because they only have 1 shot at being right, not millions of deaths to be right within a certain tolerance. More wins or losses require more games being played. When you work with actuaries you know that they need lots of results. There havent even been 100 elections, its just an impossibly small sample size with a ridiculous amount of variables. Once again, not talking about voters, talking about how many elections there are to try and gauge a model thats purpose is to predict the outcome of presidential elections. bro stick with Matlock. you ain't no actuary or stats guy.

QUOTE (knightni @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 06:27 PM) I'm not saying that with bias; It's true. The Republicans control the House and they decide an electoral tie. dude... we have the same prediction. on page 2 http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_pred...s.php?mapid=SUY and i have Biden as VP on page 1, per the Senate vote. http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?s=...t&p=2719140