mr_genius

QUOTE (MexSoxFan#1 @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 04:31 PM) To be fair, Silver isn't the only election prediction site that has Obama as favorite to win, right now, if Romney were to win in Nov. it would be seen as an upset. I'm getting kinda tired of the hyper politics going on today, I wish the elections were held tomorrow just so we could move on... agreed

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 04:54 PM) But ask any actuary if they can with 100% accuracy predict when I die, and they would say no. if i have an actuary predicting 70%-80% outcomes on a macro scale and is wrong consistently that's less than optimal. For example if I have an actuary predicting with 80% certainty that a combined loss ratio in a property/casualty cycle will be at 95% with their tables, and they miss at 105% every time... not good. But we still have random major catastrophic loses; is the tea party in 2010 Silver's cat loss? Very possible. I just need more wins from Mr.Silver before I give him his (rightful - earned) place as a statistical modeler. anyways votes are predicted in the millions not 1 to 1. You are not predicting one persons vote, or one person to die (in your example). you are predicting the overall trend with a macro outcome which you can abstractly apply to that 1.

QUOTE (knightni @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 05:09 PM) If it finishes 269-269. Romney gets it. It'll be a close one, that's for sure.

i read the question wrong. thought it was 3/5 to reform pensions. i support a 3/5 vote to increase them. but that's because i think they are already way too high.

QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 03:15 PM) quality trolling. really bored today. had some projects to do that were planned to last 3 weeks. only took 3 days to finish.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 03:21 PM) When y'all go to the booth, don't just dismiss the judge elections and retentions as nothing. These people have a real impact. The various state bar and attorney associations in Illinois, work together each cycle to publish a list of qualification and recommendation for each - to retain or not, to elect or not. It is not based on political stance or party, it is purely professional performance and/or qualifications. I have the sheet for this cycle. If you want it, PM me your email address. In any case, give it some thought. some Cook county judge is legally insane. but she always wins come election time.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 03:17 PM) False which is why they are not allowed in court rooms as they are inherently unreliable. well i am going to have to disagree. they are useful in business to find patterns in data to zero in on opportunities for financial gain. also, anyone would also be hard pressed to say that the actuary sciences are not important to the insurance industry. we are talking about serious business here, not some Matlock courtroom drama.

guys, don't get so mad just because someone doesn't like your teams homer announcer. i don't get mad when someone makes fun of Ken Harrelson. politics are different. as an unbiased, non-partisan, observer i just don't have any need for a homer rooting for either team.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 02:57 PM) There is only 1 election. Statistic models are built to predict the more likely outcome, predicting the actual outcome is fortunetelling and I assume if Nate Silver was a fortuneteller he wouldnt need to write to make a living. statistical predictive models are legitimate, not some voodoo science you think it is. lol. thanks for tip. i'll pass it on to the American Mathematical Society. hey man, just because you want a homer telling you Obama will win, that's fine. when i watch the Sox I want a homer announcer too.

QUOTE (Jake @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 02:08 PM) Someone already posted on this and I bet he has written on it as well. There's a reason for the level of uncertainty he attaches to things, for one. If he gives 60% certainty to a set of election results, he should only be correct on 60% of them. As a statistician, he would tell you that if he was consistently more correct than his certainty rating, that would reflect some kind of flaw in his model. Of the other aggregators in this election season, he has been consistently less optimistic about an Obama win. he's actually been going in the other direction. He's climbing towards 80% chance of an Obama win even as the polls tighten (as do entities like intrade which has had Obama's odds going down). And as far as the margin of error, if you include that padding, I have correctly picked every state in every presidential election for the past 16 years In 2010 Silver had a 70% change that the GOP would gain less than 60 House Seats. They got 64. In 2012 it looks like he will be at a 75% chance of an Obama win. If he's wrong again, of course it's statistically possibly that he has a great system but had the bad luck of hitting the 30% in 2010 and the 25% in 2012. Or maybe he's just not that good. To me, he seems kind of like a Hawk Harrelson to Democrats. They want a homer rooting for their guy and putting out numbers that make them feel good.

Biden at it again. http://nation.foxnews.com/joe-biden/2012/1...rillion-tax-cut

QUOTE (Cknolls @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 01:07 PM) Is there a bigger asshole in public life? “Did your son always have balls the size of cue balls?” — Vice President Joe Biden to Charles Woods, grieving father of slain Navy SEAL Tyrone Woods, during a memorial service at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland. he really is a douche

The loons are becoming unhinged http://www.clickorlando.com/news/Lake-Coun...oz/-/index.html

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 10:44 AM) 2010 was not a presidential election. House of Rep races can be tough to predict.

QUOTE (Jake @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 10:27 AM) http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2...o-have-stopped/ we'll see. As it has been documented before, Nate Silver missed pretty badly in 2010 and if he's wrong again in 2012 he will be considered a low tier statistical prognosticator. if he is right, he will be a genius again. just need to wait and see now.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 10:04 AM) Give it up, Romney has no prayer of getting to 300. hey man, i want Romney to lose. but Romney does clearly have momentum.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 09:57 AM) RCP shows Obama up 2.7%. Wisconsin has gone Democrat the last 5 elections and many in the state are weary about voting for Republicans after the whole Scott Walker disaster. If Romney gets the same result as the Scott Walker recall, he wins. I just don't see Democrats not voting Romney because of Scott Walker. Anyways, as you said, WI is pretty much a consistent Democrat win in Presidential elections. So I don't have WI going to Romney, but if that stuff starts happening it's going to be a blowout win for Romney.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 09:24 AM) According to Drudge this morning, Obama and Romney are each at 49% in Wisconsin. If Romney wins states like that, he is getting 300 electoral college votes.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 08:53 AM) ^^^ Gloria Allred of Soxtalk

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 26, 2012 -> 06:57 AM) is this 2008 again? i know right

Chrysler taking the Obama bailout bucks and moving to China? http://washingtonexaminer.com/jeep-an-obam...03#.UIniz4Z0iou

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 25, 2012 -> 01:16 PM) I thought it might be fun to have a poll, and more importantly a discussion about the electoral math. Who will win for Prez? And what states will they carry to do it? Lots of websites have predictor tools up now, here is a link to the CNN one. My predictions... Leaving all the in-the-bag states as out of play... --There are a few states that are leaning to Obama that I think are not really in play anymore: NM, WI, MI, PA, OR --For Romney, leaning states AZ, NC are his. So that gives Obama 247 electoral votes, and Romney 206. Need 270 to win. That leaves the following states being truly contested: FL (29), OH (18), VA (13), CO (9), IA (6), NV (6), NH (4) If Obama takes Florida, its over. But I am going to predict Romney wins Florida, so now Obama leads 247-235. The three states in that list that are favoring Obama the heaviest, from what I can tell, are OH, IA and NH. if Obama wins OH and IA, its over. In fact really, if he wins OH, he then has to get just 6 more electoral votes from VA, CO, IA, NV and NH, which would be hard for him NOT to do. The math just plain favors Obama right now. I predict Obama takes OH, IA, NH, and in a mild surprise VA. Romney takes FL, CO and NV. That gives Obama a 288-250 win. How about the rest of you? flip IA and VA... http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_pred...s.php?mapid=SUY

if Obama loses the election, think Michelle will try to divorce him again? like when he lost to Bobby Rush?

QUOTE (juddling @ Oct 22, 2012 -> 07:30 AM) maybe she can still scrape up donations for her birth control....... no no no, you will pay for it. you need to pay your fair share.

NBC Nightly News has so far basically devoted all it's daily coverage to the Colin Powell endorsement of Obama. lol. they are so s***ty.