infohawk

QUOTE(CYGarland @ Aug 17, 2006 -> 01:29 PM) The lineup is actually decent, its the starting pitching thats Bad That's exactly it. If we don't make the playoffs it is squarely on the shoulders of the starting pitchers.

I don't know whether to laugh or cry with Buerhle! Hey, great job Jermaine!!!

QUOTE(Soxman72 @ Jul 31, 2006 -> 03:10 PM) So the answers to our season are Alomar and MacDougal. It is going to be a long August and September. It's not like this team has major holes, they just have guys who are underperforming. This is a very, very talented team. I'm pretty happy with what KW has done with the bullpen in acquiring Riske and MacDougal and releasing Politte. The key for the season will be the starting pitchers. If they come around the Sox will be fine. If they don't, I don't see any realistic trade that would have been a difference maker for the team anyway. It will be interesting to see if they play better now that the uncertainty of the trade deadline has passed.

QUOTE(sircaffey @ Jul 25, 2006 -> 06:43 PM) If there are 3 deals, you got believe they are Soriano in, Vazquez out, and a minor trade for a backup OF. I see nothing else Kenny could do logically, unless there's a bigger trade none of us can even draw up. I don't think the team needs a back-up outfielder. That's the least of our concerns. I see KW acquiring a starting left-fielder (Soriano) before I see him getting a back-up. I can see Soriano and/or another bullpen arm. What we don't know is if the 3 trade discussions could potentially all happen or if KW is working on 3 different possible options to acquire players to fill what he is after. Then again, he may surprise us with something dramatic.

QUOTE(nitetrain8601 @ Jul 24, 2006 -> 09:55 PM) Well the Soriano deal, because BMac pitched. That part wasn't related to your post. I sometimes don't make sense so don't mind me. Thanks again for the info though. No problem. Well, KW had already stated this afternoon that he wouldn't give up B-Mac. My guess is he is trying to get the Nats to take another player or players. He may also be working on a three-way trade to get the Nats the players they want. Who knows.

QUOTE(nitetrain8601 @ Jul 24, 2006 -> 09:49 PM) Nice work infohawk. I'm guessing this means the Soriano deal is officially dead. Sorry, I'm confused. Why do you say that?

QUOTE(Balance @ Jul 24, 2006 -> 09:42 PM) Our offense is this sad and tired- Check these numbers out. Over the last seven days the Sox have hit .210 with an .OBP of .280. That's pathetic. The really sad thing is that in that same period the Sox have wasted some pretty good pitching, holding opponents to a .229 average and .304 .OBP. The worst offenders during the offensive slump as measured by .OBP are A.J. at .95, Scottie at .190, Thome at .250 and Crede at .318. They'll come out of it, but those numbers are wicked bad!

How could they have gotten this bad with the kind of talent they have on the team? Anymore I am just expecting them to lose. I know it's just a bad skid, but it almost seems like they won't ever win another game. I'm just saying that's what it seems like.

I'm officially done with Javier Vazquez. At this point I can't honestly say that he is a better option than Brandon McCarthy. I think the Sox are making a terrible blunder by keeping McCarthy in the 'pen at this point. I don't see any reason why (short of a trade) not to put McCarthy in the rotation and let Javier "I can only pitch well twice through the line-up" Vazquez be effective facing just a few hitters during a relief role. I had reached the point where I was convinced the losing streak would just run its course and I wasn't upset anymore. The decision to actually pitch to Mauer in that situation just flipped my anger switch back on and I am livid! I'm angry because the Sox are being stubborn and don't seem willing to make some adjustments that might help the team (I remain aware that they still have trade opportunities). The impression they are giving is that they are going to go with Vazquez no matter what rather than putting him in the pen or making him a 5 inning pitcher. For crying out loud, be creative and make an adjustment or two! Sorry, I'm just very angry right now. GO SOX!

QUOTE(jackie hayes @ Jul 20, 2006 -> 11:24 AM) Just a little above or below .290 does not mean much. Among the starters, I think Vazquez and Verlander (each 30 points off the mean) are the only notable ones -- not big surprises, imo. But it's odd to say "the bullpen is doing pretty well and the starters have been a bit unlucky". If you believe in babip regression-to-the-mean, the bullpen isn't doing well, they're getting lucky. It's either luck or performance, it can't be whichever one makes our players look better. If our starters are unlucky, then our pen is damn lucky. (And the k rate doesn't affect babip, so it wouldn't change that conclusion.) I say the bullpen is doing well because their peripherals are good and they aren't giving up lots of hits, luck or no luck. It's just a fact. If the bullpen were to regress by giving up lots of hits despite good peripherals, I would have to say that they weren't doing well despite the fact that they might still be pitching well. It's ultimately about aligning performance with results. The only point of my post is that the struggling starters haven't become "bad" as much as they have perhaps been a little unlucky and that our oft-criticized pen is getting pretty good results from their performances.

QUOTE(Gregory Pratt @ Jul 20, 2006 -> 09:48 AM) Last year, I remember reading from a ton of people that Clifford was the luckiest pitcher in all of baseball, when you analyzed it. How unlucky has Javier been this year? From what I've seen, his bad innings are typically initiated by a poor defensive play either in Center by Mack, left by Pods, or shortstop/second if Cintron is playing. I think that one part of Javier's problem has been bad luck with the defense behind him, and the other part has been his lack of focus after errors. In fact, I was thinking about it earlier, and remembered that someone called Javy a Latin Buehrle. I think that might have some merit to it, when it comes to errors and defensive misplays, at least. I have a fairly strong interest in sabremetrics, although I'm not entirely a devotee to the religion. I do think it is a very useful tool when evaluating talent and team composition. One thing I noticed about not only Javy but also some of our other starters is that their BABIP (used to determine a pitcher's relative "luck" on balls hit into play) are higher than the league average. The theory is that when a batter hits a ball into play that is not a homerun (which is blamed on the pitcher), neither the batter nor pitcher can control what happens. An eighth of an inch can be the difference between a two-run single or an infield pop-up. The league average BABIP is .290, in other words, this is the typical batting average against a pitcher for all balls hit into play other than homers. Here are our starters BABIPs: Buerhle .296 Contreras .270 Garland .303 Garcia .295 Vazquez .321 Only Contreras has a BABIP below the league average of .290. Garland's is high (but I believe has been declining, perhaps accounting for his improvement) and Vazquez's is really high. The thinking is that a pitcher's BABIP will move toward the .290 point of equilibrium throughout a season. The sabremetric guys always argue that the peripheral numbers are a true indicator of how well a pitcher is pitching -- particularly strikeouts, walks and homers. If those numbers are pretty good, than a pitcher with a high BABIP is a strong candidate for improvement going forward. Likewise, a pitcher with an unusually low BABIP is a strong candidate for regression (with or without good peripheral stats). FYI -- here are the Tiger's BABIP numbers: Robertson .287 Verlander .259 Rogers .273 Bonderman .293 In summation, we have more guys with room for improvement and the Tiger's have more guys with room for regression. This doesn't guarantee that it will happen, but it is likely. Another interesting little stat. Take a look at Bobby Jenks BABIP: Jenks .307 It's high, but his peripherals are so good that the opposing hitters just don't hit that many balls into play against him. Here's the rest of the Sox bullpen: Thornton .256 (Good peripherals) Cotts .243 (Good peripherals) McCarthy .255 (Good peripherals) and... Politte .349 (Yikes! And terrible peripherals with 30 innings pitched with just as many strikeouts as walks at 15 each) In other words, lots of free passes not negated by strikeouts and lots of hits. Overall, the bullpen is doing pretty well and the starters have been a bit unlucky, which wasn't the case last year. One thing I have noticed is that the starters have been giving up the long ball a bit too much, particularly Garland and Garcia. Interestingly, Vazquez has really good peripheral stats and is tied with Contreras for the least homers given up by the starters at 11. This could suggest that he is partially the victim of bad luck (although I'd like to see him ditch that curveball). When you think about luck, think about that ducksnort that was hit into shallow center during the sixth inning and, in the same inning, the seeing-eye single by Maggs that would have been a double-play ball had it been a few more feet to the right or left. The Grand Slam was all on Vazquez, though.

QUOTE(Frankensteiner @ Jul 19, 2006 -> 09:26 PM) I would hang myself... I'd join you on the gallows. Seriously, does Kruker think before he speaks? It's like he opens his mouth and something just comes out (usually a partially digested hamburger).

QUOTE(iamshack @ Jul 17, 2006 -> 02:39 PM) I just don't think the Cubs would ever deal us one of their star players (or even fallen stars such as Prior) simply because of the manner in which it would upset their fans. Its not like they would go anywhere. If years of bad and, quite frankly, pathetic baseball didn't do it, I wouldn't expect that trading Zambrano to the Sox would.

QUOTE(ottawa_sox @ Jul 16, 2006 -> 09:51 PM) Vasquez has the stuff to get strikeouts. I'm no pitching coach, but Vazquez seems to be afraid of the bat and seems to pitch away from contact too much. The only thing that happens is that he runs his pitch count up.

I appreciate everything Politte did for the team last year, but I believe it is now time to officially close the book on Cliff. That said, meh, we won the series and I'm not going to get to the point where I'm so panic-stricken about the Tigers that I demand sweeps against teams with less talent than the Sox. I'll take them, but that kind of pressure is ridiculous. The Tigers are bound to cool off at some point, but if they don't, I'm not going to be disappointed if the Sox make the playoffs but don't win the division if it happened to take 108 wins or so to accomplish the feat.

QUOTE(SoxFan76 @ Jun 16, 2006 -> 08:25 AM) Word of advice: Don't read his stuff. He wants to make you mad. You hit it on the head. I enjoy reading Mariotti for the entertainment value of his rants, but I don't view him as a serious sports writer. His whole schtick is about trying to be an irritant. It gets him attention in a competitive media market, and to that end, more power to him. Not to insult one of our players, but Jay Marriotti is the "A.J. Pierzynski" of sports journalism. He gets under your skin. I hate it when he criticizes the Sox, but I enjoy reading his scathing columns when he is ripping on the Cubs. The thing about Jay is that, if he translated into a player, pitchers would be throwing at him with regularity. Truth be told, if Mariotti really has a problem with retaliation in baseball, he's just showing the world how soft he really is.

QUOTE(Felix @ Jun 15, 2006 -> 11:34 AM) Has anyone seen any confirmation of this? I can't find any online I have been listening to the SCORE all morning and haven't heard anything about this. Offman just gave his scoreboard report a few minutes ago and didn't mention a trade at all. I want to believe it, but it isn't passing the smell test right now.

It's good to see you over here Hangar!!!

QUOTE(sircaffey @ Apr 30, 2006 -> 11:29 AM) All I know is we are 16-7 with our "sparkplug" not sparking...Pods was a huge need for us last year, but this year, his importance on offense has diminished significantly in my opinion. I'm worried about his personal performance, but as far as it effecting the overall team outcome, I'm not as worried. This is exactly right. If Pods returns to 100%, a great team just becomes even greater. Even if he's not stealing he is valuable. His speed is still good for the outfield and going from first to third. Plus, he is a good lefty contact hitter.

QUOTE(rangercal @ Apr 29, 2006 -> 05:37 PM) This was apparently taken a few hundred cheeseburgers ago.

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Apr 29, 2006 -> 12:13 AM) That was more nerve wracking than a 4 run win should be. That's because it was a 3-run win.

Thanks for providing the link!!!

I know the Tribe is our most serious competition, but I must add that the team I hate to lose to the most is the Twins. It's probably just a hangover from chasing them for three years, but while I dislike losing to the Tribe, I utterly hate losing a game to the Twinkies.

QUOTE(Hanky Panky @ Apr 8, 2006 -> 07:52 PM) Now, something that worries me even more... not being able to catch up to the friggin' Tigers. Chris Shelton is a freaking beast. He's so bestial that he's even the HR leader right now. He just keeps getting extra-base hits too. What are we to do if we come in last place in the Central? How embarassing... we cannot even beat Kansas s***ty right now. Four words: Regression to the mean. Certainly the Tigers have some very good hitters, but they have been scoring many of their runs via the home run. Seventeen so far. I would be surprised if they don't become a feast or famine offensive club -- scoring in bunches when they hit the long ball but going into protracted slumps when they don't. Also, their pitching isn't going to be as good as it has been. They have decent pitching, but their starters will give up some runs. The Indians are the real deal, but we already knew that. They are just a solid, young well-constructed club. It will be a dogfight all year between our clubs.

Kind of a miserable night, but I am far from being overly concerned. The team will hit their rythem. Let's get through the rotation once or twice and get our usual outfield players set. This team is going to score a lot more runs than last year's team, and Thome will be a big reason for that. Giving up some runs during week one really doesn't bother me. We will not have to worry one bit about this rotation or the regular outfield defense!!!