NorthSideSox72

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 09:30 PM) Talk about being able to get the rumors first hand! I only barely knew the guy. It was a big high school. And we haven't talked since then.

The way I see it, if I'm Rick Hahn (and we did graduate from the same high school only a year apart), I give Jerry a three scenario presentation.... 1. Tear it Down - trade away everything that you can get something of value for that has a contract for 7 figures. Acquire all prospects possible. Shoot for 2014 or 2015. Payroll cost: $50-$90M. 2. Tweak to improve - this is the plan I started the thread with, basically. Try to get just a little better, which combined with some maturing young players and stretched out pitchers, might give the team the +5 games it needs to get there. Payroll cost: $95M-$105M 3. Go for it - need enough money for the Tweak scenario, plus enough to go get a 3B, and a few mill for a better pitcher pickup. This puts the team in the best spot, competitively. Payroll cost: $110-$120M. Which do you think Jerry would want?

QUOTE (danman31 @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 05:00 PM) Leyer has a 92ish fastball if I recall. Plus he's still 19. Olacio had a mid 90s fastball and is 18. Brennan is right behind at 11. Thanks, that's one more piece of info than I had before on Leyer.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 04:38 PM) You'll get that from my next 100 messages too. So other than keeping Sale, Danks and Quintana (who I think you've said isn't that good anyway), what would you do? You say shed payroll... what payroll, and how? And for what? Outside of Danks, the only expensive guys with guaranteed contracts for next year are PK, Dunn, and Rios. Maybe Thornton and Crain fit in there. Do you just give them away? What do you think you can get for them?

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 03:56 PM) If Dunn is injured why is he still playing? Because it isn't a cause-serious-future-damage type of injury, it is a nagging muscle thing, and he is on the verge of 100 RBI. With the team out of it, might as well play some minor leaguers, but also give guys a shot to hit some milestones if they are in reach.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 02:52 PM) A lot of these plans bring back virtually the same team. I don't think that's a good idea. NO way. NO WAY. YOU don't think they should bring back the same team? I'm SHOCKED!!!! We didn't get that from your last 100 posts or anything.

QUOTE (danman31 @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 03:08 PM) 1. Erik Johnson 2. Simon Castro (I think people ignored that he actually had a decent season) 3. Scott Snodgress 4. Chris Beck 5. Andre Rienzo 6. Nestor Molina 7. Charlie Leesman 8. Jacob Petricka 9. Jefferson Olacio 10. Euclides Leyer Your Top 7 are almost identical to mine, but the last three we have nothing in common. I can see all three of those guys having a good argument over Shirek just based on potential... but over Hansen and Brennan? What kind of scouting info have you found on Leyer, if any? Would love to know more about him.

QUOTE (Wanne @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 01:29 PM) Not seeing Viciedo on the list...is he arb eligible? Besides these guys...I'm open to deals for anybody on the roster (keeping De Aza) Chris Sale Nate Jones Jose Quintana Donnie Veal Viciedo actually reverts to pre-Arb, I believe, but I may have forgotten him on my list. They may decide to give him a new deal too, hard to say.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 01:26 PM) That's a realistic scenario, but that's a slightly worse team than this year. I was thinking it was better, but only a little. Kind of hard to find away to make it a lot better with the salary restrictions that I am guessing are there. Maybe they aren't, I don't really know. Honestly, another $10M to sign or trade for a serious 3B could make the team I built there a lot better than this year's. I personally think the starting pitching could improve a lot, when guys like Sale and Quintana don't hit a wall, and Danks is healthy. If you have Peavy or Floyd in there, and Santiago replaces Liriano, that seems like an improvement overall. And the bullpen should be more mature, and better. Sanchez improves your defense. The place you probably get worse though, is overall hitting replacing Youkilis/Hudson with Sanchez. Rios and AJ are likely to not have as good a year next year, but I think PK14, Beckham, Ramirez and Viciedo are all likely to do better for various reasons.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 12:28 PM) This is actually the one group in our minors that I don't consider to be that sad. I'd say outfielders as well, there are 4-6 intriguing guys. But the infield in general is barren (with a couple exceptions), and I'm afraid we use most of the good bullpen bullets this year.

These discussions are popping up in other threads, so, let's start a discussion here. What would be your plan, if you were the GM of the Sox? I am going to make an ASSUMPTION here, that payroll will remain similar to last year (which started at about $98M, and ended around $104M). OBLIGATED FOR 2013 BY CONTRACT (TOTAL: $72.25M): Alex Rios: $12.5M Adam Dunn: $15M Paul Konerko: $13.5M Jesse Crain: $4.5M Matt Thornton; $5.5M Alexei Ramirez: $7M John Danks: $14.25M CONTRACT OPTIONS AND BUY-OUTS (TOTAL: $8M to $54.5M): Jake Peavy: $22M TO or $4M BO Kevin Youkilis: $13M TO or $1M BO (Boston sent money as salary offset, but buy-out is naked, I believe) Gavin Floyd: $9.5M TO, no BO Randy Myers: $10M TO or $3M BO (also a naked option I believe) FREE AGENTS (NO OBLIGATION AGAINST): Orlando Hudson AJ Pierzynski Francisco Liriano Jose Lopez Brian Bruney Dewayne Wise Dan Johnson Ray Olmedo Deunte Heath ARB ELIGIBLE: Phil Humber Gordon Beckham Alejandro De Aza PRE-ARB: Chris Sale Brent Morel Tyler Flowers Nate Jones Addison Reed Hector Santiago Dylan Axlerod Jordan Danks Hector Gimenez Jhan Marinez Brian Omogrosso Jose Quintana Leyson Septimo Donnie Veal -- So, you've got $72.25M under contract, and at least $8M more in obligations, taking you to $80.25M minimum. Let's assume that $100M is the ceiling. Here is what I'd do... OPTIONS AND BUY-OUTS: Buy out Youkilis, Myers and Peavy, for $8M (so that puts the team at $80.25M at this point). FREE AGENTS TO GO: Everyone in the above FA list, except AJP (to be addressed below) DFA/RELEASE: Phil Humber, Leyson Septimo OPTION TO MINORS: Brent Morel, Hector Gimenez, Leyson Septimo PRE-ARB: Offer contracts to Sale, Flowers, Jones, Reed, Quintana, Santiago, Veal, Omogrosso, Marinez, JorDanks and Axelrod . All around half a million each, so that's $5M, taking the team to $85.25M ARBITRATION: Keep De Aza and Beckham around. This is purely a guess, but I'm thinking Beckham will cost $2M, and De Aza $3M, for a total of $5M, putting the team at $89.75M. Might want to consider giving De Aza a multi-year deal to buy out Arb and a year or two of FA. TRADE AWAY: Trade Matt Thornton. Probably will only get a mid-level prospect for him, but that's fine, as salary relief is the key factor here. That saves you $5.5M, so you go back down to $84.25M. SIGN: AJP first, and I'm again guessing here, but I think you can get him (given his performance, but also his age at C, and his history making the FA market narrower) for a 2+1 year deal, at about $7M per. So that takes you to $91.25M. I'd try to sign Wise to a cheap short deal for the OF, I think having that vet there has been a good thing. Can probably be had for $1M or less, call it $1M for now. That's $92.25M The other two slots you now face dealing with are 3B (or 2B if beckham can be moved over), and possibly one SP (you already have Danks, Sale, Quintana and Santiago penciled in). With $10M to work with, unless you want to trade someone like Rios or a top flight prospect, you can really only get one or the other that is any good for that money. So you are either starting someone like Leesman/Axelrod/Shirek/Castro, or you are bringing up Carlos Sanchez. I would rather shore up pitching, and go with the latter. So, use the $10M or so to do one of the following: first try to sign Peavy to a $9M-$12M a year deal (which I think is ppossible, with his injury history), or second try to find the best FA out there at that level of money, or third take Floyd's option. All costing the same, all getting you to around $100M. One hole to fill is the bench IF guy, not sure who that might be, but would be cheap. -- That gives you a ~$100M roster as follows: LINEUP: De Aza, 8 Sanchez, 5 Rios, 9 Dunn, 0 PK14, 3 AJP, 2 Viciedo, 7 Ramirez, 6 Beckham, 4 BENCH: JorDanks, OF Wise, OF Flowers, C ????, 3B-SS-2B ROTATION: Sale Danks Peavy/Floyd/Other Quintana Santiago BULLPEN: Reed CL/SU Jones CL/SU Crain SU Omogrosso SU Veal SPEC Marinez SPEC Axelrod LR -- OTHER POSSIBILITIES: If you trade Rios, you can probably get something good back, but you also now have to start someone like Jordan Danks in the OF until Mitchell or Thompson or somoene else are ready, which is not right away (IMO). You can maybe trade Floyd and his option year, but then you still have a pitching hole to fill. You may also want to flip Sanchez and Beckham on the infield. THE ONLY WAY I'd TRADE RIOS, is if it can result in a significant help at 3B, directly or indirectly. IF THERE IS MORE MONEY AVAILABLE: Then do something about 3B with it. That is the weak spot, with a 20 year old rookie playing there, who I'd rather see developing at AAA. This is a very similar team to this year, except the youngsters have had time to stretch out and develop. Sanchez and a couple rotation slots are the biggest changes.

He showed some real signs of putting it together at the plate the last month or two, and he's very good defensively. Also, the Sox have Carlos Sanchez behind him, though probably not quite ready yet. And the Sox have other more pressing needs to address, with a limited payroll. I'd say keep him starting, and if he flops in 2013, he can be replaced.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 11:43 AM) If Dunn, Rios, and Konerko were all 5 years younger, I'd join you in your optimism. I specifically noted that Rios is likely to regress. Konerko and Dunn were hurt, and Dunn still put up his usual numbers. So I assume you agree with the other points I made?

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 11:08 AM) Outside of Chris Sale, what makes you feel good about this team's near future? Chris Sale, both in talent and extending his innings Jose Quintana, out of nowhere, was quite good until he ran out of gas - and again, now has extended his innings Hector Santiago looks like he may be a major league starter, and he is getting stretched out a bit John Danks returns - no small thing there And that's just in the starting rotation, and not even getting into if Floyd or Peavy might be staying, both of which are possible. Shall I go on? The bullpen full of rookies have had a full season to mature and develop: Reed, Jones, Veal and the rest. That is huge, and gives the Sox a mostly cheap bullpen for next year, with a lot of talented arms who should improve as a whole. Konerko was playing hurt in the second half, and will have surgery to get back to full health - that should be an improvement, probably. Dunn is back to his old self, same with Rios. Young guys who aren't technically rookies like De Aza and Viciedo had their first full years, and should continue to develop Alexei Ramirez had a down here, and isn't some 35 year old who is probably fading, so he'll likely bounce back And by the way, this team did what it did while only having two players (with significant history to work from) outperform their career norms in any significant way: Rios and AJ. ** Really, the only downers for next year at this time, to me, are 3B, the Catching situation, and one of the starting rotation spots. Maybe also the likely regression of Rios. But its a long offseason, so, we'll see how it goes.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 11:06 AM) Yeah, I'd be less pissed if I hadn't already seen this story the two seasons prior to this one. They just waited a little longer to blow it this year. This season was so very different than last year, or the year before. 2010 and 2011 were slow starts, huge summers, and August collapses. And those were teams who were supposed to compete, they were "All In". This year's team wasn't supposed to sniff competition for the division, and stayed right there the entire season. The only similarity is the end result - no playoffs.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 10:20 AM) I will never forget when I saw a guy drop his cell phone into the Wrigley trough. I didn't stick around to check if he washed his hands. Reminds me of one of my favorite TV ads ever (see phone-in-urinal moment about halfway through).

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 09:42 AM) People now love to throw around 90+ losses were predicted. I want to know who predicted that? I see some other posters already showed you, but yeah, that was a common prediction. Vegas line in the spring wasn't quite that bad, predicted something like 74 wins (vs 88 losses). Point is, the HUGE majority of publications and line-makers were predicting a losing season and a bottom-tier finish in the division.

A team predicted to finish around 4th, who lost their best starting pitcher (at the point of opening day) in May, had Paulie and Dunn hurting, lost their starting 3B (first to a lack of bat, then to an injury), employed 10 rookie relievers, and had 3 of 5 SP's going waaaaay past their previous inning loads... and yet, they somehow spent roughly half the season in first place, and were in it until the last series of the season. The disappointment hurts, but RV and his coaches deserve a ton of credit for putting the team in a much better position than most thought possible. And KW having his best season yet in terms of in-season moves, made all the right ones this year, to keep them in it. Rios, Dunn and Peavy all with great comebacks. All those folks deserve a lot of credit. No season is a full success without the playoffs, but as for all points below that, there are lots of shades. This team outperformed expectations in a big way. Can't give them an A with no post-season, but I'd go a solid B, maybe B+. I also really like how they set up for next year, in terms of getting a lot of young guys developed. Nice to see for a change. Should be an interesting offseason.

QUOTE (Jake @ Oct 2, 2012 -> 08:49 AM) but choke!!! don't ruin the angry story!!! People are upset (understandably), and for some people, that means they overreact and give in to the drama. WORST COLLAPSE EVAR!!!!!!! yeah OK, sure. A team predicted to lose 90+ games and who never led the division by more than 3 games, takes it all the way to the last series to fall by a couple/few games. Clearly a collapse of epic proportions.

QUOTE (daggins @ Oct 1, 2012 -> 10:59 PM) Olacio is 18 and left handed and he held his own for a while in Kanny. His main problem is control but again, he is 18. Leyer has better control but gave up too many hits. He is still young. I haven't heard much about his "stuff" though. I don't know much about what Leyer brings either, but he was always entertaining to see the box score from. He'd strike out double digits one game, then none the next. Doesn't seem to be much scouting info out there on him, at least that I can find.

QUOTE (daggins @ Oct 1, 2012 -> 06:52 PM) Though I think Rienzo and Buch and a few others are future relievers. That's always possible of course. That is part of the discussion. That's why I said it matters a lot what Rienzo can come up with for secondary stuff.

Just pinned the thread. Can't remember the last time I had to do that after a game started (except maybe spring training games).

QUOTE (daggins @ Oct 1, 2012 -> 02:18 PM) 1. Snodgress 2. Johnson 3. Molina 4. Leesman 5. Beck 6. Castro 7. Rienzo 8. Jefferson Olacio 9. Jhan Marinez 10. Euclides Leyer, I guess. Maybe one of the higher level guys like Santos Rodriguez. This is a pretty dire crop all around but guys like Snodgress and Johnson could be on some 'sleeper' lists heading in to 2013. Leesman and Marinez should contribute next year, and Rienzo may also see some time. Are people thinking Marinez is a future starter? I figured him as a reliever, so I didn't include him. Same with Rodriguez. Olacio and Leyer are interesting but erratic, and Olacio didn't have much of a year. QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Oct 1, 2012 -> 02:23 PM) I'd actually bump Rienzo up a few notches to #2. Walks was the only part of his game that wasn't outstanding last year. 6.8 H/9 is awesome, 0.2 HR/9 is unbelievable, 9.8 K/9 is fantastic, 2.53 ERA, only hit 1 batter, and carried a 1.16 WHIP. I realize he is already 24, but his breakout 2012 season makes him the first option out of the minors leagues next season in my opinion (although I'm sure Castro would get the 1st chance). I've taken that position too, but not quite that high on him. The big knock is a lack of secondary stuff, we'll see if that changes in 2013. That will be the determining factor for him, along with control. QUOTE (BigEdWalsh @ Oct 1, 2012 -> 03:05 PM) 1. Scott Snodgress 2. Erik Johnson 3. Charlie Leesman 4. Andre Rienzo 5. Chris Beck 6. Simon Castro 7. Brandon Brennan 8. Nestor Molina 9. Jhan Marinez 10. Ryan Buch Jefferson Olacio is intriguing. He's one to watch. Buch has been looked at closely for years now, he's got serious physical skills, but he just consistently doesn't seem to put it together.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Oct 1, 2012 -> 12:10 PM) To clarify, I am pretty sure he gained a lot of MUSCLE weight, not fat. IIRC, he was told to bulk up, but that added mass ended up hurting him. This offseason he is expected to work back to where he used to be, physically. Right. I didn't say fat, did I? Wasn't what I intended. Just said weight.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Oct 1, 2012 -> 10:57 AM) I don't see the high ranking for Beck given his age (22) and stats. You have to forget stats with Beck. All we really wanted to see from him this year was pitching healthy for a few games. Beck was a guy who was considered probable high first round talent, but then this past year he gained a bunch of weight and his college numbers (and peripherals) went south. That's why the Sox were able to pick him up when they did. There is still a ton of potential there. Keep in mind too, Pioneer League stats should be taken with a grain of salt - especially core numbers like ERA, and hits allowed. Defenses are weak and it is a big hitters' league. Only a few qualifying SP's had ERA's below 4 in the entire league.