NorthSideSox72

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 25, 2010 -> 12:32 PM) Here is the problem. Say you are looking at a place for a 150k right now, with the prevailing rate nationally at 4.75%. You are looking at a monthly payment of $782.47, which comes out to a lifetime payment of just over $280k in a regular old 30 year mortgage, without factoring in property taxes, PMI, or insurance. If you do a get a 10% fall in prices again, from where we are at now, but get rates to go back to a much more realistic 6% you actually end up at an $802.39, or over $290k in lifetime payments. You might save the stickerprice, but you are paying 10,000 dollars more in the lifetime of your mortgage payments. The difference is even higher if the fall in prices is lower, or if the rates see any kind of inflationary pressures at all. That's a great example of what I was saying - when you are talking about the last few % points of value around the bottom of a market, trying to play those last few out gives you a lot less gain and more risk than if you get in now while rates are low. And as you also pointed out, and as everyone I talk to in the sector agrees, inflation and interest rates have to rise pretty soon. No one knows exactly when pretty soon is, but it is basically inevitable in the relatively near term. Balta, if you want to try to find that perfect bottom, I'd suggest going to a night club instead of playing the market timing game.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Aug 25, 2010 -> 12:08 PM) Alright, then live with your pal Kotsay. You're just talking in circles now. You take the hyperbolic case on one side saying you can't prove his laziness statistically therefore it doesn't exist, then one someone questions the logic, you assume they are happy with Kotsay. Most of us are in the reality between those two things.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Aug 25, 2010 -> 11:40 AM) when is the last time thornton pitched? Thome? or vs the Royals? He can be retroactively DLed and be ready in a few days, right? Trib article stated he'd be DL'd retro to 8/18.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 25, 2010 -> 11:41 AM) I would be willing to bet that this is a function of banks drying up credit lines to save their lending ratios. Could be, but it takes years to clear the flotsam you get from doing that, so that means they would have had to start doing that a while back. Another theory is that people are simply looking at the insane rates they are paying on credit cards, and realizing that pretty much anything else is better than that.

One of the oddities in the current recession... despite the increasing financial and employment pressures, credit card debt by consumers has hit an 8 year low.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Aug 25, 2010 -> 10:05 AM) How are there no numbers to address it? Shouldn't there be some correlating statistics that show how much of a slacker he is? The only number you can really point to is games played, of which he has played in at least 130 games until 2009 in which he was suspended for 50 games and this year. Considering what we have and what $ figures you guys are throwing around, I'm not really sure how that even enters the discussion. You are either being intentionally pedantic to make some sort of point, or you actually believe that all things in baseball can be directly and clearly demonstrated statistically. Which is it?

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 25, 2010 -> 11:28 AM) Didn't the Tribune article say that KW went as far as to show the text messages he got from Ozzie to prove they didn't believe they needed another reliever? Ugh, I'm so sick of the bulls*** between the GM and Manager. Look up.

QUOTE (hitlesswonder @ Aug 25, 2010 -> 11:11 AM) It's possible that KW wasn't exactly telling the truth to the Trib. I wouldn't be surprised if he was flat-out lying and that he vetoed Ozzie's request. I have to think at least one of Ozzie or KW is gone after this season and then both after 2011.... Let me get this straight. You are willing to believe that KW, after SHOWING THE REPORTER THE TEXT MESSAGE IN QUESTION, somehow made this all up... but you think that Oney Guillen, with his track record, is telling the truth?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 25, 2010 -> 10:30 AM) Which is funny, because in the Trib today Kenny said he asked Ozzie if he wanted another pitcher, and he told him no, and that he had one too many already. Yeah, Oney need to shut his trap.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Aug 25, 2010 -> 10:02 AM) Really? Is that why unemployment claims keep rising? http://www.cnbc.com/id/38768328/Weekly_Job...ump_Hit_500_000 How do you not see that those two things can both be true? Yes, the Stim bill added jobs and GDP. Yes, UE claims keep rising. They are not mutually exclusive. The point being made is that jobs are still being lost, but at a lesser rate than they otherwise would be.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 25, 2010 -> 09:54 AM) I think more likely is that this kind of stuff has been put off as long as possible, and for many it is getting to the point where it has to be done. Or some of both. Long term needs that have been put aside too long, and borrowing rates being so low.

QUOTE (NHDadUmp-RI @ Aug 25, 2010 -> 09:53 AM) Phegley,Infantry,Carter 2 others Good to know, thanks! Now let the discussion of the "2 others" begin...

QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Aug 25, 2010 -> 09:51 AM) ELFA Leasing Index Shows Equipment Finance Sector Continues to Strengthen Monday, August 23, 2010 The Equipment Leasing & Finance Association released its Monthly Leasing & Financing Index (MLFI) for the month of July, showing a 17% increase when compared to the same period in 2009. Respondents said they financed $5.6 billion of new equipment in July, compared with $5.5 billion in May and $4.8 billion a year earlier. The July increase in originations was the strongest in two years. "Financing demand appears to be picking up," said ELFA president William G. Sutton. "Our data mirrors recently reported government statistics showing the annual rate of overall business investment in equipment and software up nearly 22% in the second quarter. It appears we're heading in the right direction and our members remain cautiously optimistic that this trend will continue." The July increase marked the fourth straight month of year-over-year growth in the financing survey, following 20 consecutive months of declines caused by the recession and reduced access to lending. Credit quality is mixed. Receivables over 30 days increased marginally to 3.5%, up from 3.3% in the prior month, but improved when compared to the year-earlier period (3.9%). Charge-offs fell to 1.5% when compared to the previous month (1.8%) and the same period in the previous year (1.7%). The number of credit approvals stabilized at 70% in July compared to the previous month, and improved compared to the same period the prior year (66%). Thirty-six percent of participating organizations reported submitting more transactions for approval during the month. Finally, total headcount for equipment finance companies remained relatively flat during the June-July period. Supplemental data shows that small business and construction lead the underperforming sectors. "There have been some positive signs in the industry," said Crit DeMent, Chairman, CEO, LEAF Financial Corporation. "In addition to the recent encouraging trends in origination growth and portfolio performance, the asset back securitization market seems to be strengthening for equipment leasing. Several lessors have completed transactions in 2010, and investors have been very receptive to our asset class because of its relatively good performance. The latter half of the year promises to be even stronger as issuers and rating agencies become more comfortable operating under some of the new government regulations. The return of this critical source of capital is a vital component to the long-term success of many in our industry, especially among independents and captives." I wonder if this is businesses realizing that rates on borrowing right now are about as cheap as they will ever see, and now is the time to jump on it, even if the recovery is slow and will take years.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Aug 25, 2010 -> 09:48 AM) Yeah. Completely serious. 1. No numbers could possible address this, and you know it. 2. If you aren't aware of Manny's tendency to miss games and play half-ass, then you haven't been paying attention to Manny (which I wouldn't blame you for).

QUOTE (Wedge @ Aug 25, 2010 -> 09:30 AM) The bullpen would like to know where you've been lately and why you haven't returned its calls. Well until the injury issues came up, even with the recent performances, the bullpen didn't concern me. They were very solid most of the year, then hit a speedbump seemingly in unison. I don't think that will last. Assuming Thornton and Putz's issues really are as minor as they sound, then I still believe that. If either or both are out for the year, then yeah, the bullpen starts to scare me a bit. But zero doubt in my mind, the most glaring need all season has been for a real bat at DH.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 25, 2010 -> 09:40 AM) Then why do we hear it so regularly? Because people on both sides rely so heavily on hyperbole to make their point. People see major flaws in the stim bill, and they see ballooning deficits - both very valid concerns - but then they start shouting and making blanket statements like "The stim bill was useless!" because they feel the need to shout.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 25, 2010 -> 09:38 AM) I'm sure you have heard the saying... People who pick bottoms get s*** on their fingers. That would be the short and sweet way of putting it, yeah. Home values may still go down, maybe even a significant amount - but at worst, it will be a small percentage of what has already happened. And being a long term investment for most people (real estate), that smaller amount should be less of a concern than other issues (finding the right home at the right relative price, with the right mortgage, etc.) that will ultimately be more material.

QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Aug 25, 2010 -> 09:32 AM) http://www.reuters.com/assets/print?aid=USTRE67N55X20100824 I don't see how anyone can doubt that the Stim bill did indeed have a positive impact on overall employment. That, to me, isn't even the discussion to have. The things worth discussing are how effectively that money was used, what types of stimulus work and don't, whether or not to do another round, and if so, what that round would entail.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 25, 2010 -> 09:26 AM) Can I also add that it's exactly this plunge that I was expecting when I decided to continue renting upon switching jobs late last year rather than trying to cash in the tax-credit? I find this silly. Trying to find an exact bottom is something generally not smart with any investment, real estate or otherwise. Seems clear to me that some time in the 2009-2011 period will end up being a bottom for the market, that's what pretty much everyone is saying. I said that last year. Its going a little later than I would have guessed (I think I said late 2009 or early 2010 originally), but again, you should really shoot for general timeframes on this market, not high precision. If you wait too long, mortgage rates will start to go up (they HAVE to, because interest rates HAVE to go up somewhat soon, and inflation with it). If I were you, if you see youself buying somewhere in the next couple years, I'd start bargain hunting now (lots of foreclosures and distressed properties to choose from), and jump at something when it looks to you like the place you want. I'm perfectly fine going in a little bit early, versus trying for perfection and getting socked with a bigger mortgage.

QUOTE (NHDadUmp-RI @ Aug 25, 2010 -> 09:07 AM) Yes, regular AFL. don't know about Jr AFL yet. Thanks for the info! Also, um... which player are we talking about here? I'm confused now which one you were referring to.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 25, 2010 -> 09:10 AM) Matusz went 6 innings and gave up 3 hits and 1 run against us the last time we faced Baltimore. Damn. I missed that in his game logs. Let's just pretend that didn't happen. Will that work?

I'm torn on the Manny thing. I mean, the division is within reach, and Manny would probably be a difference maker, addressing the team's single biggest need. But I agree with some other posters that have said Manny is pretty much everything that is wrong with baseball. If they do acquire him, I sure as hell hope they don't sign him for 2011.

Sox haven't faced Matusz before I don't think, but he's a lefty, and this year the Sox have actually done well against guys they haven't seen. MB is rockin' in August and did reasonably well vs BAL earlier this month (3 ER in 7 IP). Let's clinch the series tonight and be in position to sweep.

QUOTE (NHDadUmp-RI @ Aug 25, 2010 -> 08:27 AM) Hes scheduled for AFL this year! Which one? Do we know if the 2-tier league thing is even happening, or is it just one again? Is he headed for the traditional AFL league? Sorry for the barrage of questions.

Rising?