NorthSideSox72

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 9, 2009 -> 12:05 PM) And yet, based on the articles I posted earlier, they've been "Beating expectations resoundingly across the board" for several different months of this year. I really don't trust forecasters to understand things like seasonal adjustments or the reality behind their data. the best example I can give is the huge job gains we always record in January after a terrible X-Mas season that winds up spurring a big stock run-up, because a bad X-mas season means fewer seasonal hirings and therefore fewer workers laid off in January. Forecasters will generally know enough to understand what happened a year ago. I just don't buy your guy's first argument, though I think the 2nd one makes sense for part of it. The other part, IMO, is what I stated earlier.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 9, 2009 -> 12:01 PM) Has anyone ever won a pair of them? Polishing off the Israeli-Palestinian mess or something like that in the next few years would certainly give him a shot at another. Maybe he'd even deserve that one.

QUOTE (daa84 @ Oct 9, 2009 -> 11:17 AM) No doubt about it counts for alot. I just think of Nobel Peace Prize should be awarded to those who have had significant impact. Rosa Parks made an impact. Jackie Robinson as well. I see what Obama did more as a symbol that the racial tensions in America (while still extant and real) have diminshed to a point where the entire nation should be proud. I see his election as more of a symbol of social change, rather than on that has brought about social change. His election is historical an undoubtedly significant, but I just am not certain it fulfills the qualifications of what I define as someone who would receive the prize This is a very good post.

QUOTE (lostfan @ Oct 9, 2009 -> 11:09 AM) What happened in Iraq is that they had a civil war. The Sunnis lost. Now Iran is the foreign power with the most influence there. Way to go, of course this doesn't really get acknowledged in US media. I think you were around when this was discussed - the improvements in Iraq were as a result of a number of major factors coming together all at once. The Surge was only one, and even then, the fact that it was a "surge" was pretty irrelevant. For that portion of the changes, its that they changed tactics that was effective.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 9, 2009 -> 11:39 AM) CEPR co-director, Blogger, and guy who was calling the housing bubble back in 2001 Dean Baker on those numbers we were discussing last night. Seems to agree with me that it's a same-store sales number that was being touted yesterday. I agree with his second point, but the first one is suspect. Forecasters would have known such a basic mathematical fact, and yet, sales beat expectations resoundingly across the board.

So he admitted he felt humbled and didn't deserve it, and accepted the award. Seems like pretty much what he had to do. What's funny about this is, some of people's ire seems misdirected. Why blame Obama? Did he vote? Did he ask for this? Did he say he deserved it? Blame the Nobel committee for being stupid.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 9, 2009 -> 09:00 AM) Levis, Starbucks, Walgreens, Urban Outfitters and BoA are in Wicker Park. Oh hell, there are Starbucks and Walgreens and Banks of America in EVERY neighborhood. Damen north of North is Bucktown, and it has all the she-she fashion crap, DQ, and other stuff like that. Levi's, I thought, was north of there too, but now I'm not sure. Walk down Milwaukee or Damen, south from North Avenue, and I don't think you'll find a more hippie-haven neighborhood in the city.

The idea that Obama deserves this award is beyond silly. The idea that it somehow hurts his world image is equally silly. The vitriol being sprayed, already, by some on the right (broader group, not here), is on the same scale of silliness. There's a whole lot of silly going on today.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 9, 2009 -> 09:24 AM) As much as I was rallying against us getting the bid my initial reaction was sadness. I guess deep down I really wanted them and was just annoyed with Daley and his corruption. I think your feelings on it were probably similar to a lot of people's in that regard. I saw a lot of people who were clearly downtrodden when it was announced, but who previously didn't want it. Everyone tied the Olympics to Daley (only partially rightly so IMO), and then later realized their love for the city was more important than their hate for Daley. Anyway, that's a tangent, sorry.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 9, 2009 -> 09:10 AM) Because it never happened. I'll give you 2 decades to find a post where I laughed after we lost. You are right, I was wrong here. I was remembering your posts BEFORE the vote, not after. My bad.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 9, 2009 -> 08:55 AM) Maybe 10 - 15 years ago. It's becoming quite corporate. Levis store, Dairy Queen, BoA, Banana Republic, Starbucks, etc Those are all in Bucktown, not Wicker Park. WP starts at North Avenue and goes south.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 9, 2009 -> 08:57 AM) And leave it to the American right wing to crap on something we should be proud of. Just like they laughed at us losing an Olympic bid. What the... YOU laughed at us losing the Olympic bid, you revelled in it. Are you now a member of the American Right Wing?

Right now, I'd say Wicker Park is the closest thing to it in the city.

QUOTE (Tex @ Oct 9, 2009 -> 07:56 AM) Not going to happen. Hordes of REPs are figuring out how to mitigate the "damage" and use it to make him look bad. Meanwhile hordes of DEM strategists are figuring out how to maximize the award to their advantage. I don't think he meant ALL agree, I think he meant the people in here who can think for themselves.

I personally think that Dotel could be better, if we had a manager that recognized what seems to me to be an obvious trend. With Dotel, 9 times out of 10, you can tell from Batter #1 what he's going to be like that day. If he looks bad against that first batter, pull him. If you are willing to do that, Dotel's overall results would be far better than they have been. I personally am not ready to give up on Jenks yet either. As I've pointed out numerous times, look at his stats month-over-month - he isn't fading, his best month was in August. I don't think its an injury thing. I think he needs better conditioning, and I think he had a lousy year. Happens to most relievers.

QUOTE (kapkomet @ Oct 8, 2009 -> 07:47 PM) Don't make the mistake of correlating a double dip based on unemployment percentages. Next year at this time, despite all of the extra benefits, there's going to be a ton of people that are cycled out of that 9.x, 10.x, and 11.x number. Two responses to this. No wait, three responses. 1. I understand the different numbers. 2. Regardless of the other numbers, the main reported core number is still what people look at, and it has a psychological effect. 3. When I was using the measures on unemployment, I should not have been that specific in numbers - I was really meaning more generally, the employment picture (except the part about round numbers, that IS about the core number). If the UE rate stays in the same territory or up just a little, I think we are good for growth in 2010. If it goes up significantly, then we may be in trouble. that is really what I meant.

This is sort of like the time when Rafael Palmeiro won the Gold Glove for first base, having only played a dozen or so games there. Except the Nobel Peace Prize is just slightly more meaningful. What a joke.

Also, continuing on the fickle consumers angle, the last couple months have seen a steady barrage of financial news in the media that are all singing a chorus of "recession abating". People read that, and start to cautiously come out of their shells. X factor is still how bad unemployment will get. If it keeps flirting around 10%, I think we're going to have a decent beginning of a recovery in 2010. if it goes well above that, certainly if well over 11%, then we may double-dip. the 10% number has a big psychological impact too of course, a sort of round number resistance type effect (though not quite the same). If it goes from 9.8% (now) to 10.0% on the next reading, that's not a huge increase, but it might scare people.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 8, 2009 -> 07:34 PM) If it's a same-store sale number, then one thing that is making a consistently large difference this year is the number of stores that have been shut or the number of companies that went out of business. Circuit City gone = better same store sales for Best Buy, for example. Also, it's difficult to tell how gas sales play in to that; last year gas prices were through the roof and that was affecting demand on that product. Makes some sense, sort of... its a measure of performance at same stores open at least a year. Now, if it were a matter of business coming to fewer stores, that shouldn't cause a jump NOW, different than recent months and different than expectations. Maybe part of it, though. Gas prices aren't part of this, gas sales aren't in the measure. I personally think that part of the dip in retail business was an overcorrection by consumers. I think people, in the spring and summer this year when news really was getting bad for consumers, and also even before then during the market crash, panicked. They retrenched their spending more than most can realistically maintain, and their old habits are coming back. This doesn't apply to the 5% more people that are unemployed right now than before, of course. Just my theory.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Oct 8, 2009 -> 05:08 PM) Crawford wouldn't net a monster price, but he'd demand probably Flowers and a good arm or two (Torres, Nunez, Marquez, other minor leaguers) and a throw in reliever (Wassermann?) Marquez a good arm? he's in the gutter value-wise right now and is at the very most a throw-in for filler. Torres has maybe some marginal value, same with Nunez, but none of those three are worth much. And, even though I'm as big a fan or Wassermann as there is on this board, Ehren isn't even on the 40. He's got near-zero value in trade. So basically, you are trading Flowers straight up for Crawford, and that won't get it done. If you are right though, and Flowers + shrapnel would do it, then I'd be all for it.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Oct 8, 2009 -> 09:32 AM) Jobless claims slightly better than expected. But still over half a million. The big surprise today, to me, was that retail store results across the board were better than expected, and actually went up a slight amount. I don't think anyone expected that, and it wasn't a couple stores pulling everyone up - it was broad-based. Not sure I understand why that happened.

I'm glad they are leaving them the same, sort of figured they would after a disappointing season, in a bad economy, and after a big ticket price hike. Still on that fifty cents for a dollar thing though, huh?

QUOTE (CanOfCorn @ Oct 8, 2009 -> 04:21 PM) To whom? To the legality of the situation. And that is what should matter here.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Oct 8, 2009 -> 04:22 PM) Guns suck. I'm overwhelmed by the staggering profundity of your artfully crafted retort.

Scalia's perspective on this is fairly assinine, but fortunately, I think the ultimate conclusion he will come to is the right one - to leave the cross in place. Just for the wrong reasons, IMO. Its irrelevant what religion is signified by that cross.