NorthSideSox72

I like Razor too. I even have a funny Razor story to share... I was at a Spring Training game, in Phoenix against MIL, and Razor was coaching 3rd. I was sitting in the 2nd row right above the dugout on that side of the field. So, Razor catches a foul grounder. He looks over at our area of the stands, seemed to nod at someone (probably a kid), and then threw the ball into the stands. Out of nowhere, as the balls is sailing towards someone in the stands, this dude in the front row leaps out over the dugout, tries to intercept the ball, misses, and lands like a pancake on top of the dugout (splat!). Razor just stares at this guy. Game goes on, a pitch is thrown, and Razor is STILL staring at this guy, incredulously. The game ends. Razor heads towards the dugout, and as he approaches, he yells at this guy who took the ball, "Hey! Ya, you!" I'm thinking, this is going to be interesting. I thought Razor was going to lay into him, or call security or something. Instead, he says, "dude, if you really need a ball that badly, here" and tosses him a baseball. Razor goes into the dugout shaking his head.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 24, 2008 -> 10:21 AM) There really wasn't much evidence of this going in the primaries so I'm not sure it will happen on the 4th. Different candidates, different deal. Obama's main alternative in the primaries was a woman, who might experiences many of the same biases that Obama does. Not the case here.

QUOTE (Texsox @ Oct 24, 2008 -> 09:39 AM) But we know that people are not always 100% in their responses. You mentioned they could be lying to piss off the pollsters. Are you thinking the polls are accurate or biased towards one candidate? I think they are probably a bit biased towards Obama, but it will vary by state. Lots of factors involved. But I think the polls are probably pretty close, just a few points off. There are so many unpolled factors that offset each other.

Jeez. 538 poll updates are huge for Obama. Some details... --2 new FL polls show Obama up by +5 and +7 --2 new Oh polls show Obama up by +11.5 and +14 --2 new IN polls show Obama up by +4 and +9.5 --New MT poll shows Obama up there by +4 --New NC poll shows Obama up +2 --4 new PA polls show Obama +10, +10, +10.4, +13 --MN, IA and WI all show double digit Obama leads --Even Texas surprises - McCain only up by 10

Home sales up in Sept by 5%, up 1.4% YOY. Prices down 9%. This has been a repeated theme in recent months, and its actually a good sign for the housing sector - inventory is sinking, prices are normalizing.

QUOTE (SoxFan562004 @ Oct 24, 2008 -> 07:50 AM) http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/figgich01.shtml OK, I'm on the fence with Figgins, leaning towards not being very impressed, but I'm open to arguments for him. So those posters who are in favor of the Sox obtaining him, tell me why. Please just don't say "speed" speed alone is overrated I'd suggest that speed is UNDERrated. Stolen bases, though, are overrated by some, and some people look at speed as simply stolen bases. The value of speed is much broader than that.

QUOTE (Texsox @ Oct 24, 2008 -> 09:11 AM) OK. So are they lying and saying McCain or Obama to piss them off? Bottom line, there are margins of error in all polls. I believe these margins are actually in Obama's favor and we'll see McCain on election day with better than poll numbers for the reasons I mentioned. Do you believe the polls will be 100% accurate? Or favor one candidate or the other? Margin of error is a statistically derived value about the ratio of sample size to total pool. Its got nothing to do with perceived dishonesty or anything subjective at all.

Equity markets open according to normal schedule, and promptly shed 5 to 6% in the opening minutes.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Oct 24, 2008 -> 07:21 AM) http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24540...5009760,00.html Giant spider eats.... BIRD?!! Brazil even has a species of spider called Bird Spiders. It does happen, creepy though it is. The Goliath Bird Spider has a roughly 12" leg span.

QUOTE (Texsox @ Oct 24, 2008 -> 07:10 AM) Not fear at all. It's the same phenomenon that had people telling surveys they are watching Masterpiece Theater when they are watching Dukes of Hazard. Imagine polling people on their masturbation habits. In the words of House, "people lie". In this case, perhaps not out of fear but out of wanting the pollster's approval. Who on earth wants the approval of a random phone pollster? If anything, people are liable to lie to piss them off, more than the other way around.

QUOTE (Texsox @ Oct 24, 2008 -> 07:07 AM) I think it goes to explaining the "buzz" that is clearly Obama around electronic communications. We are all informal pollsters. We hear from friends and coworkers who they are voting for. We read comments on message boards. We read some of the professional polls, then make predictions.And that is what this thread is really all about. If not, just average all the polls and we all should have the exact same prediction. I certainly don't make predictions on the Presidential election based on personal anecdotal information. That would be silly. I don't do it based on internet "buzz" either. That would be silly. My predictions are based on the pool of current polls, sites like RCP and 538, and any trends I've seen over the years that may not reflect in the polls.

QUOTE (Texsox @ Oct 24, 2008 -> 07:48 AM) McCain. Pollsters will say later that respondents were afraid to appear as racist by not picking Obama but once they were in the privacy of the voters booth, they pulled hard for McCain. That's the fear factor I've been talking about. But at this point, Obama's leads where it matters are so dominant, I don't think the fear factor can overcome them. Obama wins in a tighter than polled race.

QUOTE (Texsox @ Oct 24, 2008 -> 07:49 AM) I think he was referring to what seems like a landslide because the people we hear from on forums, emails, etc. Oh jeez, I hope no one is actually using internet blogs/board comments, etc., to show who is winning. That would be a little ridiculous.

QUOTE (knightni @ Oct 24, 2008 -> 02:11 AM) Everyone here thought that Kerry was going to win in '04 and was shocked that Bush repeated. Most people here are going to be shocked again when the silent, non internet-using Republican voters pop out of the woodwork on November 4th. I think that it will be a nail biter again, but that Obama will barely pull it out by taking a couple of Southern states away from McCain that Bush carried the last two elections. non-internet using? Most polls are conducted by phone.

Pre-market futures down around 7% before being halted. Delayed open for equity markets being discussed. Looks like an ugly day.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 03:33 PM) Oh please. I was at a Raiders playoff game against the Jets a few years ago at Oakland. There was one person in the stadium wearing a Jets jersey and he sat near us. He lived...I think. Dude, they are trying to get you riled up.

QUOTE (lostfan @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 03:27 PM) Oh if he really wanted to piss everyone in the state off, he could appoint himself to Obama's position. That'd be awesome. Holy crap - I wonder if that's even legal.

QUOTE (Flash Tizzle @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 03:26 PM) Well, I do enjoy watching people do crazy things; and it appears an Obama defeat may guarantee this. So.... GO MCCAIN/PALIN! Are you enjoying egging-on Sqwert?

OK, last call for questions for Sergio. I'll be sending them to him this weekend.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 03:17 PM) Couldn't we just get rid of this guy like they did with Davis in California a few years back? What was that, a recall or something? Maybe we can get Jean Claude Van Damme to replace him. Madigan has passed around a document to the state house and senate on how to accomplish a recall.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 02:48 PM) Gotta love McCain and the GOP's constant effort to divide. Interesting that in this case, Palin actually had the correct answer, and the more experienced McCain went off the reservation.

You like SUSA, AHB? Obama +12 in PA.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 01:47 PM) Obama leading in Montana per Montana State University-Billings survey: Obama 44, McCain 40 Dates conducted: Oct. 17-20. Error margin: 5 points Interesting. Even with the poll the day before showing McCain +4, that seems to make the state a toss-up. Add in the fact that Schweitzer is there, and that Obama has so much cash, and I'd say it won't be a surprise to see Obama start to make a push there. Obama will probably win NM and CO, is a slight fave in NV, and now is in toss-up territory in MT. I am glad to see that the Dems got serious about the mountain west, as I've said they should do for some time. I think that's their new frontier.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 01:50 PM) http://www.irs.gov/formspubs/article/0,,id=164272,00.html Those are the correct brackets and judging from that if Obama does in fact increase the top 2 brackets it would be accurate to say that some people making $160k would have taxes raised. The problem is I cant find an all encompassing document on the tax plan. Here is a CNN break down of the tax plans and how it will affect people: http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/11/news/econo...s_tpc/index.htm It seems to suggest what Obama is saying is true, that under his plan only those above 250k would see a tax increase on their bill. Now this may be the case because of the following: Lets say that Obama is proposing a 2% tax increase on incomes between 100k and 250k. This would result in the 100k person paying $2,000 more in taxes and the 250k person paying $5,000 more in taxes. Now if the Obama plan also calls for in excess of $5,000 of rebates technically the persons tax liability has remained the same or decreased. IE: I make $100,000, I pay an extra $2,000 in taxes, but receive a discount/rebate of $5,000. My entire tax liability has gone down $3,000, even though my tax rate went up. The problem is there just is really no way to fully argue this unless we have the entire plan to try and figure out where the numbers come from. My guess is that my suggestion is correct, but its basically just taking ideas that ive heard Obama say and then creating a plan from them that fits the results hes claiming. Also, even if the tax rates go up above $160k, people making, say, $180k, may still have lower taxes. Tax brackets are not absolute - they are incremental. In other words, people making $180k would enjoy the tax breaks on all their income up to $160k, which may save them thousands. But then they start paying more. This means that they may need to make, say, 200k or 250k or whatever before the increases offset the decreases.

QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Oct 23, 2008 -> 01:13 PM) I'm of the opinion that we will get exit polls out of VA at 6PM. If they show Obama up by more than say...4 or 5 points, I'd call the election for Obama. I'd be very cautious with exit polls. Look at 2004.