NorthSideSox72

More importantly, he's worst or near-worst in swinging at pitches outside the zone. Again. He is what he is at this point.

MiLB scoreboard MLBFarm day-sheet (sheet is empty until games start) Gwinnett @ Charlotte, 6:05ct, Gonzalez Birmingham @ Chattanooga, 6:15ct, Danish Winston-Salem @ Salem, 6:05ct, Adams Delmarva @ Kannapolis, 6:05ct, Martinez Good pitching slate for tonight. Will Adams keep dominating? Will Danish keep improving? Is Gonzalez MLB-ready? Will Lassiter keep his on-base streak?

DFA Sands, option Avi to AAA. Bring up Coats and Ishikawa. Coats in LF, Melky to DH, Ishikawa as LHH 1B/DH bench and PH role. Hope the option kicks Avi in the ass. Come June, explore the trade market for better improvement than those two. But use the marginal improvement from those two in the short term.

QUOTE (Tex @ Apr 20, 2016 -> 08:30 PM) How the individual party decides to select their candidate should be their choice. You are making the choice to disenfranchise yourself by not following the rules the party voluntarily put in place. There are no constitutional requirements for primaries. You can continue to deny seeing the logic, but that doesn't mean it isn't there. In the current setup? Sure. It's just that some of us don't like the current setup.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Apr 21, 2016 -> 01:12 PM) Well Davidson is off to another great start at AAA hitting under .220. That would probably translate to under .200 in the majors. The good thing is Frazier would not feel threatened by his presence. K-rate over 30%, again, just as with the last two years. Davidson is far down the list of people to bring up, and I don't see him being an upgrade over anyone on the current roster.

QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Apr 21, 2016 -> 11:29 AM) Fangraphs today mentioned a Sox catching prospect that I have never heard of before http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katoh-proje...eper-prospects/ Dowdy is an org soldier. Backup C, gets sent all over the system. Smart guy, decent defensive catcher, handles pitchers well. But he's not a prospect. He's never even been a starter in the minors.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Apr 21, 2016 -> 09:20 AM) Where are you getting the 83 delegate difference there? That infers to me Trump has 83 unbound delegates but he doesn't have near that many I wouldn't think. Or are you saying the 83 is PAs potential unbound delegates+Trumps current unbound delegates? That makes more sense, but in the scenarios I laid out in was giving those all to Cruz. There are 2304 BOUND delegates, and 168 unbound. If someone gets 1237 of that number, they are golden. But they can also win if they get over half the bound delegates (1153) PLUS 168 other bound delegates to overcome a 168-delegate swing even if they lost them all. That's the 1321 number in total delegates to reach to win that other way. Not that it matters much, because in the end I don't think Trump gets 1237, let alone 1321. It's possible, but things have to go very well for him in a bunch of states (in May particularly) that he's not likely to do well in.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Apr 21, 2016 -> 08:48 AM) When Coats is called upon there's not going to be any more pressure than there already is for a rookie put in a starting role. He also 26 already so hopefully a little more mentally mature than most. I'd like to see the move for Avi now. We know that won't happen as the Sox have Stockholm Syndrome with Avi. The first place excuse is also BS as the reasons we are in first have nothing to do with Avi. You can still exchange the awful parts of this team to make it better. Agreed on all. Further, if you put a guy like Coats in there in early May, and he's just as bad offensively as Avi in May and June, you then look to the trade market (which they likely will do in any case).

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Apr 21, 2016 -> 08:27 AM) Why? Saladino played great defensively at third last year. He was fine there, but not great. Frazier is far better defensively, which is why I want to keep Frazier there virtually all the time.

Recap Posted. Quite a few starting pitchers are opening the season well. And even the ones who didn't, like Fulmer and Danish, have improved each start. Offensively though, the system hasn't looked so good. The exception is outfielders, a number of whom have been doing quite well. That Dash offense is really bad. Which I think we all predicted.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 21, 2016 -> 08:13 AM) This would be the best alignment. Way too much panic for a back up 1B. No one is panicking. Just a matter of finding the best parts for all the slots. Ishikawa would be better, for this team with it's current needs, than Sands. Also would hate to take Frazier off 3B any more than for emergency purposes.

I think, if trends continue into May, you make two moves: DFA Sands, bring up Ishikawa as a LHH DH and 1B bench guy and pinch hitter. He can also play OF, but with the three starters plus Shuck he's probably not necessary in that role anyway. Option Avisail to Charlotte - maybe the kick in the ass will work. Bring up Coats. Coats to LF, Melky to DH, to keep their strengths. You do both of the above and I think you get better offense than Sands, and one who can back up 1B as well, plus the LHH option the team needs. With Coats you immediately improve your defense in that corner OF slot, and probably see some marginal offensive improvement over Avisail.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Apr 20, 2016 -> 10:16 PM) Just a small point, but why is Jacob May batting last? He's a key prospect and is missing out on an at bat most nights because of that. I'd like to see Delmonico play some OF, if he's capable. Don't really need these DH/1B. On May, I am pretty sure it's a protective thing. Remember, this is a guy who missed a big chunk of his AA season, and since he was recovering from his concussion (and the absence in general) that late season stint probably wasn't as developmentally helpful as they'd like. He was promoted to AAA anyway, and I think they want to keep the pressure at a minimum, let him slowly acclimate. Which I agree with. As for Delmonico, he's really a 3B, but has struggled defensively there. So he's been some 1B and DH too. That profile doesn't exactly scream outfielder. Also, the club really does need 1B more than 3B right now, prospect-wise. And the outfield is probably the strongest position of prospect depth they have. I'm guessing that either Hayes gets demoted or Davidson leaves the org in the next few months, then Delmonico can go to Charlotte.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Apr 20, 2016 -> 01:29 PM) But very few of Trumps current delegates are unbound (basically the ones from the territories). So very little switching can occur even in such a scenario. Its Cruz delegates who are unbound. Even in the scenario I listed above I was essentially already giving cruz the 54 remaining delegates that are not bound. Most of PA's are unbound. Trump probably wins there. And then there are the 3 RNC delegates for each state in many states, where there is more wiggle room too. What I'm saying is... Trump is under 1237: Contested convention Trump is 1237 to about 1320: Contested convention Trump 1321 or higher (give or take): He wins no matter what

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Apr 20, 2016 -> 01:17 PM) You put too much emphasis on Indiana in that post. He could lose that with 0 delegates (he'll get some and perhaps win, but let's assume 0) and still be in fine shape. Assuming he wins California and NJ like he should, he would just need 50-70 delegates out of the 222 available in Nebraska, WV, Oregon, Washington, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota. Hardly asking a lot for the front runner. If he loses Indiana, it guarantees he can't win enough delegates for a majority without the various unbound delegates. That means a convention fight. And we know how poorly Trump handles that political ground game aspect. You're focused on 1237, but even if he reaches that, you need to consider how many of those are unbound and could switch. So far, we've already seen that any process requiring a ground game or insider game has been terrible for Trump. If he reaches enough delegates that are bound to reach 1237, then he can avoid the convention fight, but it's unlikely he pulls that off.

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Apr 20, 2016 -> 12:58 PM) And who is Tanner Banks? Non-prospect, unless something has changed. 2 year starter at Great Falls. He's had success, but nothing special about the stuff. 24 years old in Kanny. Impressive game he had today, though.

QUOTE (JenksIsMyHero @ Apr 20, 2016 -> 10:51 AM) Wow, so student loan service companies are f***ing terrible. Does anyone have Navient (formerly Sallie Mae, I think)? If so, be warned. I just got a notice in the mail my monthly payment was being reduced by 25%. I didn't ask for it or authorize it. I emailed them about it asking why and they sent me some BS non-answer that it was to conform to the terms of unsubsidized/subsidized federal loans. So I call them today for an actual answer and it turns out they, without authorization from me, extended the term of the loan by FIVE YEARS to "conform" to new maximum term limits allowed by the Federal Government. I don't even know if that's true, but either way, this company took it upon themselves to extend my loans and collect an extra 5 years of interest off me. What a crock of s***. I had them change it all back to my original payment schedule but I bet 95% of their customers are going to get this letter and be like "oh sweet, i'm saving some money," not realizing their going to pay more in the long term. That seems like it shouldn't even be legal. Can't do that on a mortgage without the borrower. Maybe there's a clause in the student loan contract about it? Crappy in any case. We saw our payments reduced automatically on my wife's loans about 5 years after she finished her PhD, but it was because the rate automatically went down as part of the deal. We are paying 1.75% now.

Big win in New York for Trump, got all but 3 delegates it looks like. But he also lost some previously owned ones to Cruz in other states. We also had Colorado and North Dakota finish their messes. Here is where it stands now... Things that have changed are in bold face. BASELINES Total GOP delegates: 2,472 Party-level delegates - unbound: 168 So, voting-linked delegates: 2,304 50.00001% of 2,304 is rounded to 1,153 Total ending delegates to clinch: 1,237 Delegates to clinch a convention-proof nomination: 1,321 CURRENT STANDINGS - total so far: 1,737 awarded (75.4% of voting-linked total) (leaving off the uncommitted/supers for now) Trump: 842 Cruz: 562 Kasich: 147 ---out... Rubio: 171 Carson: 8 Bush: 4 Fiorina: 1 Huckabee: 1 Paul: 1 PERCENT OF REMAINING DELEGATES NEEDED FOR CONV-PROOF MAJORITY (623 voting-linked delegates remaining) Trump: 479 delegates (76.9% of total) Others: mathematically impossible PERCENT OF REMAINING DELEGATES NEEDED FOR REGULAR MAJORITY (623 voting-linked delegates remaining) Trump: 395 delegates (63.4% of total) Others: mathematically impossible 443 of the remaining 623 voting-linked delegates are WTA, so 180 proportional delegates of some form (though some of those are Winner Take Most, which is a hybrid of sorts). Now, using recent national polls from April among the remaining candidates among LV (and I spread the few % points of undecideds proportionally), you get these likely proportional outcomes... DELEGATE COUNTS PLUS REMAINING PROPORTIONAL USING % ABOVE... Trump (applying 45% to remaining prop and totalling): 842 + 81 = 923 Cruz (32%): 562 + 58 = 620 Kasich (23%): 147 + 41 = 189 NEED TO WIN IN WTA STATES TO CLINCH PRIOR TO NOMINATION Trump: Must win 398 of 443 delegates for convention-proof, Must win 314 of 443 for regular majority number from voting-linked delegates Everyone else: Mathematically impossible if proportional trends continue Basically, if Cruz and/or Kasich win any one 1 of CA, NJ or IN... or any 2 of CA, IN, CT, NJ, MD, NE, WA, NM... or any 3 of the 17 states remaining... it's a contested convention. WILDCARDS --The next slate is heavily favoring Trump, but in May it is much more towards Cruz and Kasich strengths. The Tuesday slate includes about 120 bound delegates. UP NEXT The remaining April slate... APRIL 26: Pennsylvania (71, but 54 unbound)... Last poll: Trump 46%, Cruz 26%, Kasich 23% Maryland (38)... April poll average: Trump 45%, Cruz 28%, Kasich 22% Connecticut (28)... Last poll: Trump 50%, Kasich 26%, Cruz 17% RI (19)... No polls in last 2 months Delaware (16)... No polls at all Then it's May: IN... NE & WV... OR... WA. And the last few in June.

Recap posted. I do like that Kanny lineup a lot, and Zavala wasn't even in it. Worth reading that recap, because the box score makes Guerrero and Clark look worse than what really happened.

I remember saying it on our Podcast pre-season - I am concerned with the lack of good relief depth in AAA. There is very little there. There ARE some guys in AA, but they aren't as ready. That's a risk for the 2016 club. Also, Lassiter went 2-for-5 last night, and his average went down, haha.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Apr 19, 2016 -> 05:24 PM) One of your colleagues/fellow Admin won't like this. Heh. That's OK, we (the FS writers) do not always see eye to eye on specific players. I actually think that's good.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 19, 2016 -> 12:59 PM) Matt Davidson in 2 years and about a week and a half as a Charlotte Knight, has fanned 373 times. That is 4 more times than Joe DiMaggio fanned in 13 seasons as a Yankee. Obviously it is very early, but his numbers in his first 11 games this year are strikingly similar to his last 2 years in Charlotte: 2014: .199/.283/.362, 30.4% K/PA, 9.1% BB/PA 2015: .203/.293/.375, 31.7% K/PA, 10.3% BB/PA 2016: .205/.255/.432, 38.3% K/PA, 6.4% BB/PA He's striking out more and walking less, but the overall results are quite similar. If he's still in this territory in May or June, it's time to accept he is who he is. Release him and let Delmonico or someone else from BHAM take over and get some AAA experience.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Apr 18, 2016 -> 05:13 PM) Oh I'm not really basing it on the small sample of this year, more that it's a continuation of what I was already feeling. One or two outlets had Adams number 1 preseason so I'm not alone. I posted that he seemed to be struggling with velo at points last year compared to what he was expected to be at. BP's preseason rankings list had him sitting 92-94 touching 96, that's where I got that from. I thought I had heard that his velo was up this year but I can't actually find anything to confirm that so maybe I'm mistaken. The facts that are most indicative of future major league success are, in order, for a pitcher: age to level, K% and BB%. That comes from Chris Mitchell's research. http://www.hardballtimes.com/katoh-forecas...r-league-stats/ Obviously there's so many variables, that goes without saying. The BP report was from Chris Crawford, and he was rightfully panned for that whole T10 list he made (it was full of old and inaccurate data). I honestly don't know if his velo is back up this year, I've heard no reports either way. But I put in a question about it to a friend who might know. As for predicting major league success, K rates may be one of the best STATS for it, but any stats are far down the list of predictors. It's great to see, don't get me wrong, but I think this is a big leap at this point in time. We'll see in a few months though. I'll be in Winston-Salem (and Kanny, and maybe Charlotte) in June, and hopefully I can catch him in person.

QUOTE (flavum @ Apr 19, 2016 -> 10:11 AM) Beck started on the 15th. Today is the 19th. He was listed as the starter for today originally. He does make some sense - he's on the 40, and 3 days rest is plenty for a bullpen role on shorter innings. Then again, as I said earlier, he's probably on a strict regimen coming off an injury season so maybe not.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 19, 2016 -> 10:06 AM) The interesting thing was about the relief role. Was that in the context of just spring training, or how they picture Danish in the big leagues? Could it also be a test to see how he responded to the role? Thought someone might ask that. Yes it just meant for camp in this case.