southsider2k5

"Quit your job, just quit, because you don't know what you're doing" Ed Farmer on the overturned call.

Safe

DJ is saying that Flowers might have blocked the baseline.

Nice play by Jose and Flowers. That is the second day in a row that Tyler has an out at home.

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi 1m Bill DeWitt Jr., chair of search committee, said he's "optimistic" MLB owners will reach a decision on new commissioner tomorrow.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Aug 13, 2014 -> 04:19 PM) Yes, but everybody it talking as if they are experts on how NASCAR should deal with the situation and how they shouldn't let their drivers drive at dirt tracks, etc. NASCAR has done a pretty good job of growing their sport in the last 20 years and doesn't need advice from the peanut gallery. Neither do baseball teams, but that doesn't stop anyone on Soxtalk from knowing more than anyone in the organization about how a club should be ran.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Aug 13, 2014 -> 04:16 PM) Hey, what's wrong with watching people make many left turns and drive in circles for a couple of hours. I love roundabouts!

And we are lucky that we weren't De Aza'd again because SF didn't have anyone at 3rd. Dude either forgot how many outs there were, or missed the play.

Nice pitching Q.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 13, 2014 -> 03:40 PM) I AM A RIGHT FIELDER!

I AM A RIGHT FIELDER!

How are they not running with Danks on Jake Peavy?

My guess is that they are approaching this year for Abreu as if he was a pitcher building up his innings, and trying to have him on the field as much as possible, to condition his body to play 150 games annually.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Aug 13, 2014 -> 02:15 PM) I don't think you understand...if he hits 11 of 18 greens with one ball, if he has to hit two balls, he's only going to hit 5.5 greens with both balls. So now he is scrambling on 12-13 holes instead of 7. He gets up and down about 61% of the time, which is pretty solid. But if he has to do it twice, he's only going to do it about 30% of the time. So now he's making bogeys on 7-9 of those 12-13 greens he missed. Edit: Now granted, it won't exactly play out that way...there are certain holes that are easier and he is going to hit two good shots because the skill required is just not that difficult. There are also holes that are going to be difficult and he is going to hit two bad shots because the skill level required is high. So he probably makes a higher percentage of pars on easy holes with both balls but also a higher percentage of bogeys with both balls on hard holes...which leads to him being right around where you had him...6 over for 78. QUOTE (iamshack @ Aug 13, 2014 -> 03:14 PM) But if he misses the fairway with his first swing, it doesn't matter what he does with his second swing. If he hits the fairway with his first swing, then he still has to hit the fairway again with his second swing, or else he has to use that ball. The second swing is irrelevant unless it is worse than his first swing. If he improves every time with experience over his first ball, guess what? He will get to use that second ball 0 times, so it will have 0% effect on his score. This is your post on the matter. You assumed static percentages for each attempt in % of greens in regulation. What he is trying to tell you is that if the % goes up with the second attempt, that 30% number is too low. Instead of being a 55% chance times a 55% chance, it is a 55% chance times a higher percent chance the second time, which reduces the average number of times he misses. The second swing is relevant for as many times as he doesn't improve. If he improves 70% of the time, that means 30% of the time, his second shot is still worse than his first, and is relevant to the counter-factual at hand.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Aug 13, 2014 -> 03:01 PM) HE CANNOT USE HIS SECOND SHOT. HE MUST USE HIS WORST BALL ON EVERY SHOT You are totally missing what he is saying. If he has a 55% chance at hitting the fairway on his first swing, that goes up on the second swing. So it isn't .55 times .55 to get a %. It is something more like .55 times .70 (or something higher than 55% if he gets better on his second swing).

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi 8m Yankees and Red Sox are on pace to miss the playoffs in the same year for the first time since 1993.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Aug 13, 2014 -> 02:28 PM) No, sorry, I should have been clearer and I also shouldn't have made a gigantic typo. Those were the numbers for all AL hitters, and it's actually .255/.318/.394, not .225/.318/.394. For left fielders, it's not all that different. .255/.322/.402 Cool. Thanks!

QUOTE (shysocks @ Aug 13, 2014 -> 01:58 PM) First, read this, published a couple months ago. This is how even a left fielder can flex defensive value. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-value-o...-using-his-arm/ Second, his offensive numbers are not "very average." American League: .225/.318/.394 Alex Gordon: .280/.356/.436 The article I linked above is one of MANY I have read that references error bars or something like them. Jonah Keri published a piece on Grantland today that includes the phrase "given the vagaries of defensive metrics." I'm sure you have examples to the contrary but I can't really be held responsible for those. And as far as I can tell, you believe the defensive component of WAR is deeply flawed because you believe the defensive component of WAR is deeply flawed. Whether it is or isn't, it's definitely a lot more reliable than saying, "That guy can't be better than this guy because I know it's he's not." That is the average LF this year? Holy crap that is terrible!

http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/08/12/mlb-gambl...ook-game-fixing

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 13, 2014 -> 01:35 PM) And of course when the Cubs eventually/finally do sign an ace (probably Lester) and the White Sox don't, there will be the usual penny-pinching stories in the media, despite our payrolls from 2006-2013 being evidence to the contrary. Of course nothing has changed since 2006 in the White Sox organization, so it would be just lazy to insinuate otherwise.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 13, 2014 -> 09:35 AM) With the Tigers being vulnerable finally, I think they have to give some serious consideration to making a more than half-hearted attempt to compete in 2015. If nothing else, take away Butler from the Royals or Victor Martinez from the Tigers. For example, if Matt Lindstrom's projected to be the closer again next season...forget selling any season tickets. I'm with the crowd who says you can't keep wasting years of Sale and Abreu in their prime. That doesn't mean sign Scherzer, Lester, Shields, Hanley Ramirez or Sandoval...but they can definitely compete in 2015 if Hahn makes the right moves and all of the core pieces (Sale/Quintana/Eaton/Garcia/Abreu) can stay healthy. Top of the list, is that anyone who expects the Sox to spend $100 million on a starting pitcher is delusional. All the John Danks experience has done is probably strengthen the resolve that long terms deals for SPs are not a brilliant idea. Maybe they hit on a guy who is down, that the teams thinks can be fixed, but they aren't going to spend top dollar in the free agent market for a pitcher.

MLB ‏@MLB 2h Chris Sale has struck out 29.9% of all batters he’s faced this season: http://atmlb.com/1mJrB1l #Whiff

Baseball Reference ‏@baseball_ref 42m Chris Sale now has 16 career double-digit K games (most by any White Sox pitcher in last 100 years): http://gadel.me/1mJwAPn

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 13, 2014 -> 12:24 PM) Doesn't have have to wait at least 10 days before he can be recalled again when he's sent down? Maybe I'm imagining things. Unless there is a DL trip involved, 10 days.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 13, 2014 -> 11:38 AM) Right, and I don't necessarily believe Taylor is the solution, but it's a good thing to see these guys in action. It's one of those things where I think we have two distinct sides of this rebuilding thing. Currently, the Sox have the requisite building blocks in place to field a good, strong, contending team - to me, those that we can be assured are those good players are Sale, Quintana, Abreu, and Eaton. We may have one in Garcia. But the Sox need glue guys, and acquiring those guys on the free agent market is incredibly expensive and inefficient. If you can find them cheap and cost controlled, you can begin to spend on areas where you have not been able to find those glue guys, which is when it is OK to spend way too much on a bullpen arm. The biggest thing working against Taylor is that he is not on the 40 man roster. Someone has to be dropped to make room for him, and there are guys that the Sox are going to want to see in Sept who are also not on the 40 man. I doubt we see Taylor this year in a Sox jersey.