Dick Allen

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 01:02 PM) So not wanting the Sox to sign Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana suddenly makes us ultra conservative? I think it makes you ultra aggressive to the point of being a fault. The Sox have a middle rotation starter already signed on the roster in John Danks who is risky enough, but the White Sox wouldn't be able to give him away at this point without eating money. They have guys in Johnson, Paulino, Rienzo, and Surkamp that I imagine they'd like to get some innings. The team is nowhere near competing without several great, breakthrough years from a lot of players. This is how rebuilding goes. Ultra conservative is what the Cubs are doing by not taking risks at all. The White Sox have taken plenty of risks this offseason already and those moves have been lauded by the fans on here. I've already said that, if the right free agent came up, I'd have no problem surrendering that pick. If the Sox had to give up their 2nd round pick to sign Tanaka, I wouldn't have cared. I don't want the Sox committing 4 years and $50 million or so to Jimenez or Santana because they're on the wrong side of 30 and likely to start declining very soon. That they have to give up a 2nd pick round is just icing on the stay-the-hell-away cake. If you want an example of a team or state of the organization in which I'd be a proponent of this, it's if the Sox were in the same phase as the Orioles. They have a very talented team in need of good starting pitching. They are nowhere close to that state. Ervin Santana has always pitched in a home park that suppresses homers. Jake Peavy pitched in a park in USCF that did nothing but allow homers. Peavy was always a better, more talented pitcher who was hurt by his home ballpark in his time with Chicago. He was also injured. That can easily happen to Jimenez or Santana too. With his flyball tendencies, it's very easy to assume that Santana could be a 4.50 ERA pitcher with the White Sox. --- This is all moot discussion anyways considering Rick Hahn himself said they aren't signing a pitcher tied to draft pick compensation. I told you it was moot posts ago, but White Sox pitchers generally pitch better at home vs. on the road, although it is interesting you didn't point out Jake did a lot of his pitching in San Diego.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 12:29 PM) lol, you mean increasing the talent level the way you want it to be increased. It is pretty obvious what both Rick Hahn, and us peons here at Soxtalk are talking about, which is adding to the talent level of the organization, only their plan is to do it for a fraction of the price that you and Marty are talking about. Though I do have to say this, I remember people laughing at Kenny Williams years ago when he was asked about the state of the farm system, he stated that he could have a good farm system anytime he wanted to. Since the organization decided to go that route, it is pretty amazing how much young talent they have been able to bring in here, without really touching the teams core. They minor league talent level unfortunately still pales in comparision to other teams. And I know KW can do no wrong in your book, but unless he tried to make it fair to other teams, he drafted horribly from 2001-2007. In my BP, it stated that the White Sox drafted the lowest cumulative WAR for those years of any team except the Brewers. That included the players KW traded away.So unless he was drafting bad players on purpose, his statement is incorrect. And that didn't even get to the badness his buddy Wilder was feeding him. If KW could have a good farm system any time he wanted, how come it isn't considered good right now? He doesn't want one? The fact is the guys they have brought in aren't ranked very much higher or in some cases lower than guys they have had in the system before and failed. Maybe all of these guys will work out. But I think even you would admit that probably isn't going to happen.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 11:05 AM) Source: FanGraphs -- Jake Peavy, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez Source: FanGraphs -- Jake Peavy, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez Peavy has always been a better pitcher than those two. He cost less both in terms of finances (2 years, $29.5 mill versus 4 years, $50 million) and assets (no draft pick versus 2nd round pick). Peavy has not always been better. He had a stretch of 3 years he hardly pitched 300 innings. Santana has been really good 4 of the past 6 seasons: 2008 3.49 ERA 219 IP 2009 5.03 ERA 139 IP 2010 3.92 ERA 222 IP 2011 3.38 ERA 228 IP 2012 5.16 ERA 178 IP 2013 3.24 ERA 211 IP and you are saying this is better? 2008 2.85 ERA 173 IP 2009 3.45 ERA 101 IP 2010 4.63 ERA 107 IP 2011 4.92 ERA 111 IP 2012 3.37 ERA 219 IP 2013 4.17 ERA 144 IP

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 12:08 PM) Very few teams leave themselves the ability to take on >$7 million in salary commitments at the trading deadline, and if they do, they aren't looking to take on guys who they're obligated to pay for multiple years down the road. We heard that a whole lot with Peavy last year, that even though his next year was affordable and reasonable, teams outside the largest markets were really hesitant to commit the payroll for an additional season. We heard it enough that it actually surprised me how many teams seemed to take themselves out of the running at the deadline because they didn't want to pay the extra year. The problem was Jake has a decent injury history, and was hurt before the deadline last season. The Sox still found a taker, and isn't there a $15 million extra year on his deal if he gets to a certain innings level this year?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 12:07 PM) Good call. Let's become the Marlins. We'll burn our bridges with free agents and fans alike by screwing over people who sign with us. It isn't enough to be the second team in Chicago, let's burn it all down. As I stated, you wouldn't be burning bridges, because signing these guys for multiyears with draft pick compensation is doing them a solid at this point. The White Sox aren't in danger of becoming the Marlins, but if you want to be ultra conservative, like is being suggested on this board, being the Marlins might be the best case scenerio for what you will become. I have never seen a group of fans so opposed to increasing the talent level of their team.

Is the Marlins minor league system be as good, worse or the same by signing Buehrle, Reyes et al. and trading them away?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 11:55 AM) I'd be curious the last time this actually happened to anyone in MLB. I sure can't recall it. It isn't illegal. In fact, while sometimes it may be a red flag for your organization, the way the compensation works now, you are actually doing these guys a favor even if you trade them.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 11:44 AM) If you don't have to, why would you? These are far riskier than others too for so many reasons. If you want to build a successful organization, you must take risks. If you want to speed up the process, you must take risks. In the grand scheme of things, with their prices dropping, the risk is far less than risks they have already assumed or were willing to take.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 11:04 AM) IF FRANCISCO LIRIANO PITCHED FOR THE WHITE SOX IN 2012 LIKE HE DID FOR THE PIRATES IN 2013, WE WOULD HAVE BEEN IN THE AL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES. IF ADAM DUNN JUST HIT LIKE HE DID FOR EIGHT CONSECUTIVE YEARS, WE WOULDN'T BE HAVING THIS DISCUSSION. IF CARLOS QUENTIN DIDN'T GET HURT IN 2008.... IF WE SIGNED JOSH HAMILTON... IF IF IF...is a risk that Rick Hahn isn't willing to take when he's set up things so well for this assessment/work in progress season. If is the risk every team takes every year.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 10:54 AM) And signing Tanaka made sense in both the long and short-term. Surely, most will agree with that, even though the risk was huge. Those pitchers you're referring to (and I've yet to see a single name mentioned other than Jake Peavy) were undoubtedly in the last or 2nd to last years of their deals, were they not? How many examples have veteran pitchers signed to 4 year deals been traded away in the first two for a better return? Pitchers come to the White Sox to work specifically with Don Cooper because he's one of the best pitching coaches in the business and has gotten results from numerous guys...the White Sox have almost never brought in a pitcher with the primary idea being to trade him in the future unless it was someone on waivers or at almost no cost like a Loaiza or Santos (and now Paulino). There are plenty where pitchers are DUMPED, like Contreras for Loaiza, or Javy for Chris Young, but if Chris Young is the best possible example we can come up with, then that's not the type of impact that will push us into the playoffs for 2-3 years in a row. What is the difference if they were signed now or 2 years ago. Contending teams trade for pitching every year. If the Sox have excess and aren't contending, they can reap the rewards and shorten their rebuild even if they surrender their second round pick. The point is moot. Hahn said he isn't letting go of the pick, but if there is another veteran like a Maholm who can be had for a decent price, he should look at it seriously with the idea that if the team isn't winning, it will improve inventory to deal from.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 10:49 AM) I would argue that in the current market, the odds heavily favor the 3rd pick of the second round being of significantly higher quality than the return for Ervin Santana (or similar pitcher) in 2-3 years. Jake Peavy is/was much better than Santana, was on a much friendlier deal than what we can expect Santana to get, and was traded in a market absolutely starved for good starting pitching, which is a situation that is possible for a future Santana deal, but comparatively unlikely to occur. Rumor has it Santana and Jimenez are going for less than Garza. Peavy was $29.5 million for 2 years. I always liked Peavy, but there are plenty of detractors on this site. Right now with the comp picks and competitive balance picks, that pick is #43 in what the Sox head scout says is not a good draft, top heavy with HS players. If Santana and Jimenez pitch the first half like they pitched in 2013, there would be a lot more attractive young players available for them than the #43 pick.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 10:37 AM) Still waiting. Other than the unique circumstances of Jake Peavy that aren't applicable with any free agent pitcher on the current market, there hasn't been a single supporting example of a veteran free agent pitcher signed from outside his previous organization at/over the age of 30 for a contract of 3+ years and $40+ million dollars where that team ended up "winning" the deal by flipping him later on. The odds are greater for it to blow up in their faces than for it to amount to even the quality of a 2nd round draft pick...plus you've wasted all that money and a spot in the rotation that could have been put to better use. IF THE WHITE SOX WIN 78-84 GAMES NEXT YEAR, I DARE SAY THAT NO POSTER AT SOXTALK WOULD BE AGAINST ADDING A VETERAN PITCHER IF ONE IS NEEDED TO PUSH THEM INTO PLAYOFF CONTENTION (AND ASSUMING BECK/RIENZO/SNODGRESS/BASSITT ETC. ALL FALL FLAT ON THEIR FACES). BUT NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO DO IT. THE END. Because at that point we won't have the money for a young stud catcher (if we overpay another veteran pitcher) or we'll have to trade Quintana to do it, which will simply open up one hole in the dike to plug up another one. Our best best still remains getting the two best collegiate arms we can scout in 2014 and with the #5-10 draft pick in 2015. We did it before with Sale, the Cardinals with Wacha. Far from impossible. Non contending teams have flipped pitchers for prospects at the trade deadline for years. The Sox have plenty of money. They were going to pay Tanaka over $20 million a year and pay his former team $20 million.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 10:30 AM) Dick Allen -- I don't understand why you so frequently seem to be caught up in arguing that it takes a long time for prospects to develop. That doesn't change the fact that an early round draft pick is an asset and, therefore, an additional cost to sign a DP-compensated FA. That the pick won't likely be on the ML roster within 2 years is irrelevant. The franchise STILL needs good prospects in the system to be developed or traded. Again, the guys signed can be flipped for already developed players, or create an opportunity to flip someone else for players who are farther down the road in their development. Unless you want a 7 or 8 year rebuild, it is something that needs to be considered. Would you rather have A. Garcia or a second round pick?

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 09:56 AM) It's a difficult situation for scouts around draft time I am sure. Let's say we are looking at two players, one is more polished and has a perfect world ETA of 2016, and a very good chance of getting a cup of coffee, a decent chance of being an average major league regular. The other player is less polished, has a ETA of 2018, but has a chance of being an all-star caliber player, but a higher bust risk. Who do you pick? It's a franchise philosophy, the White Sox took the low ceiling guys for years and years and we all complained bitterly. Now the Sox are swinging for the fences and we aren't willing to be patient? Bulls***. Draft picks are lottery tickets, you draft them, stash them, and hope you scout well enough to hit on enough to keep your ball club competitive and cheap. Refusing to play isn't the answer. I keep hearing the Peavy comparisons and they make no sense. He didn't cost us a pick and the Sox were coming off a season where we finished three games behind Detroit. Three games is a gap that can be made up by a free agent acquisition. We finished THIRTY games behind Detroit last year. If your plan is to just sign a starter to flip him, the odds of Santana or Jimenez exceeding the value of a contract in six months to a year that literally no other club in baseball is willing to give them right now is very low. Even less likely that they will exceed the contract so much so that any team would be willing to give us anything close to be as valuable as the #43 overall pick. And that is ignoring the shortsighted financial and roster implications as well. With Peavy, if you knew the Sox would not contend in 2013 and lose close to 100 games, Hahn would have been torched for signing Peavy. That is the point. The reason given for not signing a pitcher now is the Sox realistically won't contend, and give guys like Rienzo a shot. Well, they didn't contend in 2013, but signing a FA pitcher paid of with a prospect.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 09:54 AM) If Courtney Hawkins is up for a cup of coffee in 2 years, you would honestly be surprised? Being a significant contributor in 4 years may be a bit much, but you are going to know within 4 years how you view a prospect and expecting a cup of coffee during that time frame is not unrealistic for a 2nd round pick that is contributing. There's obviously gray area, but do you think the Dodgers are really going to be expecting Garret Gould to do anything at this point? A "cup of coffee" is not contributing to winning. I stated 2020 would be when you could reasonably expect a HS kid taken in this draft to contribute to winning. You are basically saying I'm correct but arguing my statement. It is also a reason to consider flipping a guy like Santana or Jimenez, 2nd round pick be damned. Someone is always looking for pitching at the deadline. Getting an established prospect cuts out a lot of development time and you have a much better idea whether or not their shot is legit. Sure, things can go wrong. But the loss of the 2nd round pick really, when you look at the big picture, isn't all that significant. If Santana or Jimenez pitched like they did in 2013, and signed contracts that look a lot like what Garza got, in July, you could probably get at least some team's top 5 prospect. Certainly you would trade the second round pick right now if it were allowed, for something like that.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 09:32 AM) And many of those guys have busted. Look at the minor league numbers for Everett Williams, Brooks Pounders, Mychal Givens, Tommy Joseph, Trayce Thompson, Garrett Gould, Tanner Bushue, Bryan Berglund, Steven Matz, Max Walla, Cameron Garfield...whatever, I could go on. I've been quite clear that the bust rates for prospects are quite high. All of those guys have put up pretty terrible numbers, except Steven Matz, who didn't start pitching with the Mets until last year (meaning he didn't pitch in 2009, 2010, or 2011). All the same, many of these guys are still apart of the future plans and could have realistically been called up last year. Holmberg, Murphy, and even Thompson to some extent look like decent prospects, and the Sox drafted 2 of those guys. Yes, it's realistic to see a high school player up within 4 years, and beyond that, you are going to have a pretty good idea of their fate within 4 years. With most of the guys listed above, they are either going to retire in 2 years or become career minor leaguers. So 2 years from now, a guy who supposedly was too young for high A ball last season, should be ready to contribute to winning in the major leagues or he basically can be considered a career minor leaguer? That's crazy. As I stated, maybe they make it to the major leagues, but contributing to winning is a little different. 2020 I think is beyond fair.

Hiding Nieto on the DL makes zero sense. He needs to play or what's the purpose? He isn't exactly Ivan Rodriquez. He either shows he can stick in spring training, or at least shows enough the Sox would want to keep him and work out a trade. You would think that shouldn't be too hard. If the Nats thought so much of him, I doubt they leave him exposed.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 09:08 AM) I absolutely think that Hawkins could help the Sox in 2 years. It all depends on how well he performs. The fact is, if these guys aren't helping or close to helping the major league team in 4 years, they're basically after thoughts. Do you really think anyone in the White Sox front office views Jared Mitchell as a potential starting player down the road? But he went to college, so he should have been up in 3 years, right? If the high schooler they take in the 1st and/or 2nd round this year isn't up by the end of the decade, odds are pretty good they'll never be up with the White Sox. 2009 MLB draft, there is exactly 1 HS player taken in round 2 with a WAR over 0.7, and they are the only 2 above zero. Nolan Arenado. Billy Hamilton is the 0.7. He might help the Reds this year. Again these are best case scenerios which take you to 2019. 2020 is still reasonable.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 08:41 AM) You legitimately think that a high school prospect won't help for 6 years? Meanwhile, people have already (incorrectly) talked about Tyler Danish, a high school pick in the 2nd round, pitching in the majors this year. He could legitimately get a cup of coffee next year and could be a significant piece of the puzzle come 2016. If it's not till 2017, that's realistic too. By all standards, if said high school player is taken in the 2nd, expecting him in the majors by 2018 is completely reasonable. They may bust - that's the nature of the beast. I'd still rather have that plus the allotted money to that slot than counting on anyone past the 10th round to contribute instead. Absolutely. I look for at least 4 years in the minors. Rookies generally don't help you win that much. Trace Thompson was a second round high school pick in 2009. Hasn't been declared a bust yet, nor should he. Danish is best case scenerio and even then, you don't know what is going to happen between now and 2016 or 2017. I think if you take a HS player with the pick expected him to be a decent contributor to your major league team before 2020 is nonsense. It may happen, but probably not. For every Mike Trout, there are thousands of Trace Thompsons. Hawkins was drafted 2 years ago in round 1. Do you really think he's 2 years away from helping the White Sox win? The whole premise that this is a 99 loss team so the White Sox shouldn't sign pitchers is nonsense. If you knew how bad they were going to be, would you have thought it was a mistake to sign Peavy? Why would you need a "wrong side of 30" pitcher with a history of injury eating payroll? Because they signed Peavy they now have A. Garcia. That is the point of signing pitchers. The Sox don't have too much pitching. Guys are going to get injured. Guys are going to suck. The more you have, the better you will be. If at the end of the day, you luck out and do have too much pitching, it is very easy to get rid of .

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 08:12 AM) No, I'm not going to say he shouldn't have been running because his success rate was so high, but if you're going to have guys who can run in front of anyone in the lineup, but the case you actually are making is that there should be someone hitting between Dunn and the guys who can steal bases if you want that to work, because Dunn was actually 8th on the team last year in hits that didn't leave the park. On top of that, with his ability to take a walk, he moves guys to 2nd fairly often as it is without the speed. With the debacle that was last year's lineup I'm not going to say that there was any "lineup shift" that would have produced better results, but you kinda just convinced me that Dunn should have continued hitting behind Konerko (or behind Viciedo or something like that) last year. All this was pointed out because someone wanted to sound smart about Ventura's deficiencies managing saying he bunts too much, even though it was last in the league and the 3rd lowest total in the major leagues this decade and runs into outs with Dunn at bat. Both are totally false. If people want to complain about Ventura's managing, I'm sure there are some legitimate gripes. But what was pointed out was not on the list, and if someone is going to steal at a 82% clip, I have no problem having him run in front of anyone. There is a far better chance to score from 2nd than 1B. Even in fewer plate appearances Dunn had more walks and twice as many RBIs with a runner at 2nd than with a runner at first in 2013. Once again, facts show it made sense for Rios to get to 2nd base.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 27, 2014 -> 07:56 AM) Huh? Adam Dunn is the last guy on the roster who needs a RISP more than a "runner on base". Huh? He still hits more singles than homers, and he makes outs so the runner in scoring position helps the next batter. Are you saying Alex Rios shouldn't have been running last season? The guy got thrown out 6 times. I know one of them was at 3B when Dunn was not batting and was went he went on his own. So at most he was thrown out 5 times when Dunn was batting. Probably fewer. It also kills the shift on Dunn as it would basically be giving Rios 3rd base.

Laumann was talking about the draft and said this year's draft is better than last year's but still isn't very good. He also said it is high school dominated. So chances are this second round pick that seems to be so valuable, if it ever helps the White Sox win, won't be until next decade.

QUOTE (joeynach @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 06:28 PM) Whether Rios was succseful or not, every SB attempt ahead of or with Dunn at the plate is a complete waste and risk of an out that is 100% un-justifyable. Whether RV called for them or Rios did there is no place for that kind of cavilarish behavior when it comes to maximizing the use of your 27 outs. Considering the amount of outs and strikeouts Dunn makes Rios' 82% success rate was well worth the gamble getting a RISP..

QUOTE (joeynach @ Jan 26, 2014 -> 03:12 PM) It was more of the situations where he decided to bunt and steal that bothered me; ahead of Dunn for example, or moving a runner over the 3rd to setup a sac fly situation for a guy who isn't a fly ball or high contact rate hitter. Things like that, where the dots wouldn't connect. I saw too many of this from RV to respect his understanding of some of the modern aspects of the game or the tendencies of his hitters under that modern scope. No offense but you are moving the goalposts and are full of s***. Dunn batted 4th. I am pretty no one bunted in front of him. Rios stole bases in front of him and was very successful. The White Sox stole bases at a 73% clip and needed to steal bases to score. Robin used more pinch runners than any manager in 2013. There was stupid baserunning last year but I find it hard to place blame on a manager when someone gets picked off or misses a sign.

Dunn had the highest OPS and OPS÷ on the White Sox last year. And the dope with the crack about Ventura, just classless. You might get more info if yoj just politely tell him you think he should be screaming all the time. What horrible examples they were to the kids at those seminars.