StrangeSox

Lmbo that's their big reveal, a claim that Clinton made a joke about droning assange. Weird how he insisted there wasn't anything worthwhile to leak about Trump given all of the Trump stuff that's been leaked ands unearthed by actual journalists in the last month. If they have something worthwhile, why wait until Tuesday to release it?

Matt Ryan sitting on my bench, but I still have a chance if McKinnon does no better than mediocre

Big ap article about trump's sexism during the apprentice, including more extreme creepiness about Ivanka. http://bigstory.ap.org/article/2778a6ab72e...p;utm_medium=AP Seems like the oppo research floodgates are opening, and there's a huge reservoir to drain.

Greg stop listening to talk radio

I'm absolutely shocked that wikileaks has nothing to announce despite broad proclamations to the contrary yet again. How many more times will they pull the football away at the last second before the last holdouts realize how big of a joke they've become? Edit and what corruption of Hillary have they released, anyway? They mostly seem to make claims about things they don't understand, overhype what they have, and dox teenage tape victims and gay people in Saudi.

Something to keep in mind about that billion dollar loss trump had in 1995-while he may have lost that much on paper, it was almost definitely other investors, creditors, and contractors he stiffed that bore the real brunt. Trump had been taking millions out of his casinos as they hemorrhaged money for years.

29. The nyt got ahold of some of his 1995 tax returns which showed a nearly one billion dollar loss, big enough to wipe out up to 18 years worth of federal taxes. http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/10/02/us/po...t.co/aAXI4ZvZeZ

Trump's week courtesy of judd legum 1. Did Donald Trump have the worst week in political history? Let's review 2. He began the week by decisively losing the first presidential debate, which was watched by more than 80 million people 3. Legitimate polls had Trump losing the debate by 30 or 40 points 4. He then spent the week arguing that scientific polls were unreliable and touted meaningless online polls goosed by his suporters 5. During the debate Hillary Clinton brought up his fat-shaming of former Miss Universe Alicia Machado. 6. Trump spent every day after the debate talking about Machado and defending his decision to mock her for gaining weight 7. This culminated on early Friday morning when Trump tweeted to his millions of followers to Google her sex tape. (She doesn't have one.) 8. It was then revealed Trump once appeared in a softcore porn video produced by Playboy 9. Trump bragged at the end of the debate that he was too classy to bring up Bill Clinton's affairs. 10. Trump (and his campaign) then spent the rest of the week talking about Bill Clinton's affairs. 11. On Friday, Trump called the NYT to talk about Bill Clinton's affairs and (falsely) claimed that he had never had an affair. 12. During the debate, he bragged that he was able to avoid any taxes, impling that people who paid taxes weren't smart 13. Trump was also cornered during the debate on his lie that he opposed the Iraq war. He pleaded with people to call Sean Hannity. 14. USA Today and The WSJ -- 2 huge papers who almost never weigh in on prez elections came out against Trump, calling him a unique threat 15. The Arizona Republic also endorsed Hillary Clinton, the first time they've ever endorsed a Democrat 16. Trump claimed Google was involved in a conspiracy to suppress negative news on Hillary Clinton 17. Trump said Tuesday that Lester Holt did a "great job" moderating the debate. Days later he said Holt rigged the debate for Hillary. 18. Trump threatened not to participate in the next two debates 19. Newsweek revealed that Trump probably violated the Cuban embargo and his campaign manager inadvertently confirmed it on national TV 20. Trump released an ad trying to appeal to women that featuring the line: "The most important job a woman can have is being a mother" 21. Trump called for Obama not to pardon Hillary Clinton, who has not been convicted of any crime 22. The WashPost revealed that Trump's foundation lacks proper certifications to solicit money -- and was probably operating illegally 23. Trump named Merkel, who he has trashed throughout the campaign and compared to Hillary, as the foreign leader he most admires 24. Trump told a New Hampshire television outlet that he was "very proud" to promote the birther conspiracy about Obama 25. White Nationalist David Duke called Trump "our candidate" 26. Employees at Trump's golf courses said he wanted to fire women who weren't pretty enough 27. Forbes reported that Trump's net worth dropped $800 million in the last year 28. I'm sure I'm forgetting a few things but, yeah, pretty bad week.

QUOTE (Ezio Auditore @ Sep 30, 2016 -> 02:18 PM) Equally as funny is the comments on that by people for whom the joke went over their head. lol and that follow-up joke that nothing gets over that guy's head

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 30, 2016 -> 01:26 PM) He did, I think election day 2012 they showed Obama with a lead of 1.2 points or something but a 90% odds of winning due to his showings in swing states. I think Silver is right to be skeptical because it's a lot easier to say Obama is more certain when he polls at 48-49%. When you are polling at 45% there is a lot more variance - especially when historically undecideds swing to the non-incumbent (which hillary WOULD BE). OTOH, in the primaries undecideds swung away from Trump. Isn't this not actually true? I thought that came up a lot in 2012 with Romney hopefuls. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix...the-challenger/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-pre...rd-challengers/ Also important to note that we have about 1/3 fewer state polls at this point than we did in 2012.

QUOTE (Ezio Auditore @ Sep 30, 2016 -> 01:23 PM) I don't recall him doing this "probability" thing in 2008 or 2012. His model had some shifting like this in 2012, and that's how he was able to call Florida on the last day for Obama due to some last-minute shifts the other models smoothed out. But it sometimes produces really weird results. They'll shift a poll by Suffolk University a couple of points in say NC because back in June in a NY poll, they were a couple of points out of line (for lack of a better word). There's some pretty big assumptions baked into that methodology such as maybe they have polling demographics issues in one state but not the other? It also plays weird games average/shifting around polls even when the polls clearly and publicly shift their whole methodology--how much sense does it make to shift a Reuters/Ipsos poll based on what they did in June and July when they changed their model in August? The Now-Cast is set up to explicitly swing back and forth wildly. Whether that's Nate becoming more of a pundit, trying to drive page-clicks or thinking is provides some sort of valuable service is up for discussion I suppose. QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 30, 2016 -> 01:22 PM) I think I figured it out, on keepin it 1600 they mentioned that they take recent national polls or state polls and factor that into the trend and apply it to their overall model. It assumes the trend continues. So on Monday, you had a weekend of weak polls for Hillary - in that system it will assume that the trend would continue and pushes it to a net +2 or +3 for trump. But that makes it a lot more reactive to new polls, versus past years where it's model stayed fairly static even as pollercoasters happened. Very weird. Yeah, that trend projection thing is one of the issues with it. If a candidate has a few polls in a row showing them declining a bit, it projects that out to some degree as continuing forever. So if you start with an average of +5 in Florida, and then you get a week of +2's and +3's, their model might shift to projecting the other person winning even though you're still clearly ahead. There's also no explanation for how and why they "correct" different polls different amounts at different times, even from the same pollster in the same state. He's putting tons and tons of special sauce into it. Others like PEC just take the raw state aggregates and go from there.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Sep 30, 2016 -> 01:00 PM) Hillary is +12% in Polls Plus since Monday. Perhaps I need to have slightly more faith in humanity. Nate's model is intentionally ridiculously reactive this year, showing huge swings for slight changes. They also use the Google Consumer Research poll which no one else is using and they weigh it the most heavily for some reason.

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 30, 2016 -> 12:23 PM) What is the deposition from? Is it from the author of that book that was sued over calculating his wealth?

Another "paper that always endorses a Republican for almost a century and a half not endorsing the Republican" story, this time it's from San Diego http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/opinio...0929-story.html

I know, but the thrust of the article and of ss2k5's post was that the Democrats and Republicans have abandoned the center/mainstream.

It's not even noon yet and here's a summary of all the crazy stuff happening: And a bunch of really good polls for Clinton coming out today and yesterday, such as:

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 30, 2016 -> 11:33 AM) I mean he is, right more often than not. I disagree with him on net neutrality. But like many others, he probably does not view this country as a dystopia that cannot be saved and minorities must be punished for salvation. SO, he is a sane person, but doesn't mean I'd vote for him. Glad to have him aboard the sane wagon thou. He has a gigantic yacht named after one of Ayn Rand's books.

QUOTE (Ezio Auditore @ Sep 29, 2016 -> 03:17 PM) McConnell says Obama didn't communicate consequences of 9/11 bill IT WAS THE REASON HE VETOED IT, YOU STUPID SON OF A b****. HE TOLD YOU OVER AND OVER. Bruce Bartlett, former Reagan adviser and now long-time GOP apostate, on this: Come on Bruce, tell us how you really feel.

QUOTE (TheTruth05 @ Sep 30, 2016 -> 05:45 AM) +1 on this, I've lost 3 starters in 4 weeks. My WR core is decimated and everyone in my league is hellbent on fleecing one another or make no moves at all. Lost AP for the year, Bryant's hurt, Alshon has garbage throwing to him now, Jennings has been hurt a couple of weeks now. Oh well maybe 2017 will be better.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Sep 28, 2016 -> 02:58 PM) It's important for me to note that your dril reference did not go unappreciated.

At the same time, the libertarian party's domestic and foreign policy platforms aren't exactly mainstream either.

QUOTE (Tony @ Sep 30, 2016 -> 09:33 AM) Hasn't it been pretty much proven that Trump doesn't even have a cell phone? The scariest part of that means the campaign is actually the one tweeting these (with Trump telling them what to post) IIRC he shouts his day-time tweets at a staffer, but this middle-of-the-night stuff is all him. There's also a couple of bots out there that can tell if the tweet came from an android device or iOS, with android being a Trump tweet and iOS being a campaign staff tweet independent of trump himself. The tone/phrasing usually makes that really obvious, too. Trump doesn't use a computer ever, though, and has his staff print out the top 50 google news stories and important emails for him to write on with a sharpie every morning.

the Trib endorses Johnson http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion...0930-story.html Trump still at zero newspaper endorsements.

Trump waking up super early/coming off his all-night coke binge to toss out some great tweets about Alicia Machado this last one, good lord: your 2016 GOP nominee for President ~5 weeks from election day, everyone! (also, not that it matters, but that video isn't actually her) Bonus tweet achieving levels of irony we never thought were possible:

And finally some more fun info on trump's scam charity. It relies almost entirely on solicited donations, but it doesn't have the proper certifications to do that. https://mobile.twitter.com/Fahrenthold/stat...652645555699713