JUSTgottaBELIEVE

I’m making the case that Kopech’s arm is at least as conditioned as Rodon’s arm was last season. Which is why I’m expecting a minimum of 135 innings from Kopech this season but being told he is likely restricted to 120 innings. I don’t agree with that low of a restriction. He’s younger and been healthier than Rodon over the past five years. No reason he can’t do what Rodon did in terms of workload this season.

If innings prior to the injury matter that much then Kopech threw 134 innings in 2017 and 141 innings in 2018. I’m not following the logic as to why he couldn’t do that again this season. What’s so special about 120 innings? For reference, Rodon threw 86, 139, 35, and 8 innings in 2017 thru 2020 (including minor leagues). Kopech missed two years due to TJS and Covid and he still threw more innings than Rodon between 2017 and 2020 lol

Kopech has been a professional for 8 years now. He has parts of two seasons facing big league hitters. Not sure why it matters how much mlb experience he has when determining an innings limit. He’s 26. He’s not a baby faced rookie any longer.

Weird. I pitched through high school and college. If I had a year off due to injury to my throwing arm, I’m having a hard time understanding why a base built up prior to the severe injury mattered much. Any time I had a long layoff, I felt like I was back t building up from square one.

Adam missed an entire season and was one year removed from TJS. Who cares what he did in 2009/2010. Adam was also several years older than Kopech when he had the surgery. No need to baby Kopech. He should be able to give 135-150 innings this year (including playoffs) imo

Don’t know until you try. Let’s see if he can make it to 100 first and how he looks at that time. If he still looks strong, why put a hard cap at 120?

I guess. I still remember Adam Wainwright went down with TJS in early 2011. His final stat line for 2012 season at age 30: 32 GS, 198.2 IP, 3.94 ERA the next season (2013), he finished second in cy young voting (241.2 IP) and then third the season after that (227 IP). Sometimes we baby these guys too much…

Sox have control on Kopech for this season and three more. The guy works his ass off and is now three years removed from TJS. I don’t see any reason to baby him. 120 limit seems too light. I’m not saying get stupid and push him 175+ but 135-150 seems perfectly reasonable.

Can’t they still add a big arm in July if needed? That’s worked well for teams like the Astros in the past. You need 4 solid starters in the postseason. If everyone is healthy (big assumption), the Sox already have that. If they’re not healthy and/or not performing, then why couldn’t they trade for one in July?

I mean he pitched 69 innings last season. That’s more than Rodon did in 2019 and 2020 combined.

You’re the one arguing Kopech has no chance of replacing Rodon’s 2021 production. I don’t agree. I absolutely think he’s capable of giving 135 innings of sub 3 ERA ball this season. I also think he will perform better than Rodon did in his playoff start. Again, since you’re arguing we need to replace Rodon’s production in the rotation that also includes the playoffs.

I know Kopech comes with uncertainties as well but I believe there’s a better than slight chance he outperforms Rodon this season.

And let’s not pretend like Rodon was some kind of workhorse last year. He threw 132 regular season innings and only lasted 2.2 innings in his postseason start. Even on an innings limit, I’m hoping Kopech can provide that much this season.

Yes, it is the definition because the other 4 starters are the same as last season and the only thing that changed was Rodon/Kopech. You are debating whether Kopech will provide the same production as Rodon. That’s a different argument. You are convinced he won’t but he very well could. We simply do not know. What we do know is that Kopech replaced Rodon in the rotation and I’m sure hoping he’s better than Rodon was in the postseason.

And they don’t need to. Why do they need to replicate Rodon’s regular season from last season for the team to be successful this season? Rodon sucked when the Sox needed him most at the end of the season. Even if Kopech is worse during the regular season but better than Rodon in the postseason (low bar I know), that’s a win.

I prefer Kopech over Cease. TJS and the ensuing layoff set Kopech back but he’s a better pitcher than Cease and I don’t think he will melt down mentally in big situations like we have seen so many times in the past with Cease.

Exactly. And to me, Kopech has more upside than Rodon as we stand today since he’s younger.

By definition, Kopech is quite literally Rodon’s replacement. Not sure how that is debatable? I already acknowledged that him producing an ERA below over 130 innings is uncertain but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he did. No one knows, just like no one knew Rodon would be a Cy Young candidate last season. As for the rest of the rotation, who knows. And quite frankly, even if they are less productive in the regular season but pitch better in the postseason that’s what they need. Lynn, Rodon, and Cease were god awful in the postseason.

Rodon’s replacement is Kopech. Whether or not he gives them an ERA below 3 and 130 innings remains to be seen but he is the Rodon replacement in the rotation. The rest of the rotation is the same as last season - Gio, Lynn, Cease, DK. So when people say they didn’t replace Rodon in the rotation, that’s incorrect. They did but they used someone within the organization already. This was the plan all along and there’s nothing wrong with that. Guys like Lopez, Cueto and VV provide additional depth just like Lopez and Lambert did last year.

Rodon was absolutely labeled a bust after 2020. This has nothing to do with emotion. There’s no denying this otherwise he would have received an offer far better than 1 year/$3M. The Sox weren’t expecting much from him going into last season and neither was the fanbase. You’re lying if you say you did. Somehow it worked out. No one is expecting anything from Keuchel, VV, or Lopez this season. Wouldn’t surprise me if one had a good season after witnessing Rodon’s transformation last year.

They’d be in line with where the Padres are at. Sox are +1200, Padres are +1900

I don’t understand the fascination with the Padres. They have worse odds than the White Sox to win the World Series this season and their farm system is now average to below average. For all the praise they got for their rebuild and later trades, they’re basically in the same position as the White Sox today.

Doesn’t change the fact that he sucked really bad in 2019 and 2020 and I never wanted to see him in a Sox uniform again. I’d bet if you dug up the playoff game thread that many felt the same way.

But he looked like shit in 2020 and 2019. Still remember the 2020 postseason meltdown against the A’s. I never wanted to see him in a Sox uniform again after that series (and I think most agreed at the time).

And it worked out, imagine that! Now just imagine if they had the ownership/will to spend that type of money regularly internationally like the Braves and Cubs did for many years. By all accounts, it took a lot of convincing of Jerry by the front office just to sign a stud like Luis Robert Does that make them a “better” front office because of it? I don’t think so and now that we have seen both loopholes closed internationally as well as with the US amateur draft, it has leveled the playing field for all. The White Sox, Astros, and Braves all have minor league systems ranked in the bottom third of the league now. The Cubs were right there as well prior to their complete fire sale last summer. #27, #28, #30 (Cubs were also in that mid/late 20s range prior to the fire sale) https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/farm-system-rankings-2022-preseason.html