JUSTgottaBELIEVE

The Cubs smoke seems like a leverage play on the Reds to me. I think the Reds do have real interest.

I just don’t think the Cubs have a glaring hole in their rotation after signing Boyd unless they’re considering moving Assad to the pen?

As far as the Cubs, it would have to be a package built around Shaw and Cassie I think but I doubt they’re that serious about Crochet. Their starting rotation is pretty much set as is.

Why so? I like Arroyo, Stewart, Collier, Lewis. Could see a package built around two or three of those guys for sure.

Reds are certainly intriguing and not a team I would have considered interested in this trade. But a package built around Arroyo and Collier would be very interesting. Checks a couple boxes that Getz has reportedly been interested in - positions players that are very young with good potential but still a couple years away from mlb. Arroyo + Collier + Lewis

They’d be smart to package him for a starting pitcher

But he won’t be a 1+ win player as a rookie? That should be adequate to replace O’Hearn at a fraction of the cost.

O’Hearn has a career 1.8 fWAR across 7 seasons. To say he’s definitively worth more than $8M in 2025 is debatable. But, yes, he has been better with the Orioles. It won’t take much of a slip in his hitting production to result in an overall negative player again. For a team as cheap as the Orioles seem to be (even with the new owner), it sure seems that $8M could be better utilized on pitching upgrades if Mayo is a 3+ WAR player year in year out.

Good point. I’m sure some will say Moncada was still a success but when you’re like me and counting the days until he’s off the roster when he still has 2+ years remaining on his contract that’s not good.

Well, when they’re that horrific, it’s concerning yes. But I also don’t like his strikeout rate in the minors or the reports I’ve read about his defense. If he’s as great and mlb ready as you’re letting on, I’m surprised the Orioles picked up O’hearn’s $8M option rather than easily filling that DH role with Mayo for league min and instead using that $8M to sign the pitching that they desperately need.

-0.6 fWAR over 46 PAs, hard to do! Extrapolated over 237 PAs and that’s -3.1 fWAR, yikes!!

His 2024 MLB stint made Miguel Vargas look good comparatively 😬

I think 3 WAR is his ceiling while you think that’s his baseline. That’s why our opinions on Mayo differ so greatly. I think his baseline is an annual 1 WAR player that’s relatively easy to replace and his floor is much lower than that (see 2024 SSS). Only time will tell.

All else being equal, it’s much harder to find a guy that can C/1b/DH than a guy that can 1b/DH. Plus, Basallo is younger and hasn’t starting accruing mlb service time, both positives over Mayo in my eyes. Oh, I also like that Basallo hits lefty and strikes out less than Mayo. I think his bat will translate to mlb better than Mayo’s.

All I know is 6 errors in 20 games for a first baseman is terrible for my daughter’s 12u travel softball team let alone a guy that’s supposed to be mlb ready.

C/1B hence the young Carlos Santana reference

Vaughn made 4 errors in 2024 for reference.

Oh great, another Gavin Sheets situation playing a guy in the OF that has no business being there. At least this one can hit 30 bombs, maybe.

Because he was horrific there when they tried him at 1b last summer. Sure, he can improve but the likelihood of him being even as good defensively as Alonso (which isn’t great) is probably best case. So you’re counting on him outhitting Alonso? Reminder, Alonso has been worth 3.3 fWAR/162 games played, which equates to a WAR ~3 per season assuming ~150 games played.

Fine defense based on what?

What do you like about Mayo’s defense?

From what I’ve read, Basallo is likely best served as a backup catcher at the mlb level. A 65/35 split between Quero and Basallo at catcher would be the ideal split if that’s the case.

Agreed. I don’t understand the fascination with Mayo. He’ll be lucky to produce 2 fWAR seasons even if he hits 40 bombs because of his defensive shortcomings. I really hope the Sox steer clear of him if they make a trade with Baltimore. I’m far more interested in Basallo as I see him turning into a young Carlos Santana type player albeit with a lower OBP. I don’t think he was ever great at it but Santana spent quite a bit of time catching his first several years in the league.

^admittedly, I haven’t seen Mayo play 3b but I saw an awful lot of these types of posts from Orioles fans over the last two months of the season. Sounds to me like he isn’t even serviceable at 3b without dramatic improvements.