JUSTgottaBELIEVE

Agreed. I still think the Phillies or Red Sox are the likely partner and the following deals would meet that criteria. Phillies: Miller, Caba, Bohm Red Sox: Campbell, Abreu, Garcia

Who said it was a flex other than you? I think the Sox farm system is barely above average (back end of top 10 in mlb), which just goes to show how far the Orioles system has fallen in the span of 12 months.

Well, if I had to guess.. (1) Schultz, (2) Smith, and then (3) (4) some combination of prospects traded for (in Crochet, Robert trades), drafted with the #10 pick, and/or guys that are just outside the T100 now that make the leap.

I said the Sox have a better farm system than the Orioles now and, yes, the Orioles will be down to 1 T100 prospect come June when Mayo has graduated. He very well could graduate by the end of April if he breaks camp with the team.

I didn’t say a year from now, I said today. And if I had to guess how many T100 guys the Sox will have a year from now, I’d say 4.

People here laughed a few months ago when I said the Sox farm system is now better than the Orioles. But Orioles fans insisted Elias was going to maintain the farm system at a high standard even while the mlb team was trying to compete and they were no longer drafting in the top 5 every year lol. With Mayo likely to graduate from prospect status by June, they’ll then have just one T100 MLB prospect.

Yes

Yes

No, because I’d argue Scherzer carried more trade value in that deal than Trea. Besides, Robert is nowhere near the level of Trea even with a few good months in 2025.

Why? The Sox lineup is horrible so he has no protection. He’s chasing pitches and his strikeout rate is trending up. His defense appears to be trending down. He’s not going to get any faster as he ages combined with the injuries he’s experienced. He looked completely disinterested at times last year playing for the worst team in mlb, I doubt this changes. Just to name a few.

Outside of generational talents like Juan Soto, when’s the last time a position player cashed in substantially at the trade deadline?

Put another way, if Getz can get a 50 FV and a 45 FV prospect for Robert, I’m taking it without a doubt.

You all need to dispel the notion that his upside with the Sox is tremendous. No, it’s not. If we’re playing probabilities, the likelihood of him having a 1-1.5 WAR season in 2025 is more likely imo than 2.5-3. And quite frankly, a 1-2 WAR player making $15-20M per year just isn’t that attractive. I suspect Robert’s trade value is similar to someone like Alex Bohm, maybe even lower because of the injury concerns.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/829581/chicago-white-sox-operating-income/#:~:text=In 2023%2C the operating loss,totaled 40 million U.S. dollars.

Ding ding

It’s not at A’s level yet but if/when they move Robert and Benintendi it will be. I wouldn’t be surprised by that at all, that Jerry wants payroll stripped down to spare parts as he continues the process of readying the team for sale. I’m sure he’s also getting a lot of pressure from other board members as the organization continues to lose money year after year. This is a for profit business after all.

What if Jerry is adamant about rocking a sub $50M payroll in 2025? You don’t get the option of waiting to see if a $15M player recovers his trade value by late July. You do things like package Benintendi with Crochet just to move the contract.

You’re not the one writing the checks

It will be a good case study in Jerry’s #1 motivating factor this offseason. I think it’s clear that he’s looking to shed significant payroll (A’s style) as first priority even if that means accepting diminished returns for remaining veteran assets. Therefore, I think Robert gets moved even if the return is relatively weak.

Robert played in 100 games last season and produced 0.5 fWAR. I don’t think it’s fair to say that it’s a certainty $20M is a bargain price for him in 2026/2027 as long as he stays healthy. There are legitimate performance concerns after the season he just had and he’s not getting any younger.

Not really if he’s Moncada 2.0, which I fear he is

Crawford, Caba, Bohm gets it done

If they trade Beni, Robert, and Crochet, projected payroll sits at ~$30M. Only the A’s are projected for less.

And then you have guys like Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo that absolutely rake in AAA and appear to be ready for MLB but are clearly not once they get there. Minor league stats don’t always tell the whole story (I’m looking at you Miguel Vargas). Aaron Judge had a career .842 OPS in the minors lol

Doesn’t Slater hit well against LHP over his career? I think it’s generally much easier to find guys that can hit LHP versus the other way around.