JUSTgottaBELIEVE

The argument was Robert would sign a significantly higher contract than 3/$55M if he were a free agent today. I pointed to Bellinger’s contract from last season as what I would expect Robert would receive on the open market today. Bellinger’s age, production, and injury history a year ago when he signed that contract were very similar to where Robert is at today. The biggest difference is Bellinger was coming off a 4.4 fWAR season while Robert is coming off a 0.5 fWAR season.

Why are we not looking at their entire careers? These two guys are supposedly in the prime of their careers in their late 20s. And if we are picking smaller sample sizes why is last year not the most relevant of all?

And sometimes 45 FV prospects turn into highly productive major leaguers. I’d gladly take 3 of them (all position players) for Robert. Then use those cost savings to sign Ha-seong Kim. I think he’ll cost around $55M same as Robert but for 4 years, not 3, so a lower AAV. He’s been about a 3.3 fWAR per 162 game player and has been far more available to play than Robert over his career. Seems like a Getz player too because he walks a lot, plays terrific defense, and is a plus base runner.

Incredibly higher based on what? His career year, which I personally don’t think he will touch again from a production and health standpoint, resulted in a 5 WAR season. 5 WAR seasons don’t lead to MVPs nowadays even if the Sox have the best record in the AL.

There was nothing incorrect about what I stated.

All I’ve been told is that Robert has MVP upside even though he’s never been close to winning one and Bellinger has all star upside even though he’s actually won an MVP and got closer to winning another in 2023 than Robert ever has. But yea, I’m sure somebody would pay Robert a lot more than 3/$80M this winter if he were a free agent lol

It seems the Phillies have moved on from the idea of trading for Robert

Nah, not with his injury history and shitty 2024 season.

Bregman and Adames are awful comps because neither has the extensive injury history that Robert does.

Let me spell this out in plain English since you seem to be having a hard time following. If Robert was a free agent today, do you think he would receive a contract significantly better than 3/$80M? if yes, my question is why? if no, you think that sounds about right then he has ~$25M in surplus value over his remaining three years of control. And that’s just not super valuable. Effectively equal to one 50/55 FV prospect.

Bellinger as a free agent one year ago was coming off a season in which he won a silver slugger and finished 10th in MVP voting. In other words, he was coming off the same type of season as Robert’s career year in 2023. Yet, you’re telling me Robert today has significantly more upside than Bellinger last winter the same winter he signed a 3/$80M deal and was coming off a season comparable to 2023 Robert. 🤷‍♂️

And yet Bellinger literally won an MVP lol

It actually does based on age, injury history, and past production. Find me a better comp in free agency today or over the last couple years.

Ok, so still a top 10 Mets prospect like I suspected. Also, isn’t BA generally tougher with their FV ratings compared to pipeline?

It’s a bummer Bannister didn’t have more time to work with him because it seems he definitely found something. Unfortunately, it was just a little too late otherwise the Sox could have flipped Soroka for an interesting lower level prospect at last season’s TDL.

Acuna is definitely a better fit at 2b because everything I’ve read and seen is that he’d be a plus defender there. He’s still learning CF so hard to say with certainty there. But here’s a list of 2b with sub .700 OPS last year that were still 2+ fWAR guys and top 10 at their position overall: Semien, Jimenez, Turang. Semien was just a tick under .700 but the second highest rated 2b last season. Gimenez and Turang were closer to that .650 mark.

No, not wild at all… When Bellinger signed his 3/$80M deal one year ago he was 28 years old and had been a ~4 fWAR per 162 game guy over his career. His deal was market rate because god knows he fully tested the free agent market. Luis Robert is 27 years old and a ~4.3 fWAR per 162 guy over his career. Age and production doesn’t seem all that different than Bellinger and Bellinger was coming off a far better season in 2023 than Robert is after 2024. Robert has 3/$55M remaining on his deal. So, yea, if Robert was a free agent today he’d probably land a deal similar to what Bellinger got a year ago +/-. Yes, there is surplus value on Robert’s contract, which is why they won’t have to send money away to get a 30 year old reliever in return, but it’s not overly significant if we’re viewing it from the lens of the Bellinger contract as the baseline. And I would argue that the odds of his trade value increasing from here is worse than the odds of his value decreasing. He can’t just be a 3 WAR type of guy (aka Bellinger type of production) to see his trade value increase over the next 6-12 months. He needs to be a 5 WAR guy and, quite frankly, I don’t like those odds. At least today, some people including many on this board think he’s the 5 WAR guy that’s going to stay healthy for 140 games like he did in 2023. Good luck with that.

And most thought the $3M the Sox paid him last season was an overpay. Clearly, there is a supply and demand issue on the pitching side of things.

His career .752 OPS in the minors isn’t far off from Nico Hoerner’s career .779 OPS in the minors. Since we only consider large sample sizes, let’s look at their entire careers. Acuna brings a similar skill set on defense (perhaps even more value because of his versatility) and base stealing as Hoerner. Has Nico Hoerner been a valuable MLB player In your opinion? (Hint, he’s been better than Luis Robert)

Perhaps not a year ago but back in early April just a couple weeks into the season some were saying it

False. Money is always a factor. We recently witnessed Cody Bellinger sign a 3 year $80M contract coming off a very good season. After one just ok (but much better than 2024 Robert) season, the Cubs were desperate to dump him just to get rid of his remaining salary (2/$47.5M).

Luis Robert has made one all star appearance. Let’s not act like he’s some perennial all star. The version I watched for 6 months earlier this year looked more like a replacement level player if I’m being honest. With Robert, it used to be well he just has to stay on the field and he’s great. 2024 kind of proved that’s no longer the case. Maybe 2024 was a one off and just a byproduct of a historically bad team but what if it wasn’t? If he performs in 2025 like he did in 2024, nobody in MLB is picking up that 2026 option.

Then your expectations are way off imo. If the Sox can get a T100 mlb prospect plus another low level semi interesting piece for Robert I’m taking that all day.

One big difference between Robert and Crochet - $$$. Crochet was basically league minimum last season and this season. If all goes well, he’ll earn roughly $10M next season perhaps? Compare that to $15M, $20M, $20M. When interested teams like the Phillies and Reds are already near the top of their budgets, that extra $10-15M per year makes a difference in trade value. Additionally, Crochet had almost no track record prior to 2024 so in reality the arrow could only go up if he managed to stay healthy in the SP role. I don’t believe that to be the case with Robert. Much of the arguments to holding on to him revolve around the possibility he reverts back to his prior form so if he doesn’t his stock falls further. Different situation imo.

I never said ignore it. I already acknowledged he struggled at the plate in AAA as a 22 year old. So did Colson Montgomery. So I guess they both suck and have no future?? The thing about Acuna though is he plays good defense and is a demon on the bases. I’m not sure we can say the same for Colson.