JUSTgottaBELIEVE

I still don’t understand what makes Mayo untouchable. Right handed power bat that hits for a decent average but strikes out a lot and likely ends up at 1b/LF. He better hit bombs like Pete Alonso to be untouchable with that profile.

The Red Sox could put together an extremely attractive package. I would say an even better package than the Orioles if guys like Mayo and Basallo are untouchable. A package headlined by Anthony and Teel would be amazing.

I mean he was a 0.9 fWAR player in less than a half season worth of ABs. A 1-2 fWAR player is a fringe starter even on playoff teams.

I’m just going by the tweet that said they’re asking for 4 a team’s top 10 prospects. Not sure they’ll get it but maybe.

Dominguez + Hampton + Lombard + Warren would be a great return imo

He was one of the pitchers you referenced that would make the same money in 2024 as Eloy oops

I wouldn’t be opposed to it. The division is truly god awful. Twins have done nothing to improve. For as bad as the Sox roster looks on paper, it’s possible they catch lightning in a bottle and win 85 games. Might be enough to win a horrible division.

Is a 2.83 ERA any good? Think that might have helped a contender in the playoffs? Obviously, the Orioles didn’t need him in August, they needed him in October (when Flaherty was MIA).

He was pitching some of his best baseball over the last month of the season and yet you definitively say he wouldn’t have helped a team in the playoffs. Ok

Except Cease had a 2.83 ERA in September and appeared to be getting stronger as the season concluded. OTOH, Flaherty had a 7.20 ERA in September and faded terribly as the season concluded. Not sure how you can definitively say that Cease wouldn’t have helped a team in the playoffs with how he was pitching in September.

It’s not he doesn’t want it but instead more likely it’s not available

Good point regarding Nola. Same career ERA+ as Cease but he’s 3 years older. And he just got $172M! There is tremendous surplus value to Cease over the next two seasons considering what he’s getting paid.

Ok now filter 2022-2023 with a minimum 1000 PAs and where’s he at? How many of the guys ahead of him are cheaper and actually available?

Oh, and to take it a step further, how many top 20 pitchers in mlb will make less money than Cease over the next two years and how many of that group are available via trade?

What is a top 10-20 pitcher in mlb to you? How is that not an average #1 or at worst a really good #2? Mid rotation guy is an average #3, not even close to comparable to top 10-20 in mlb.

The thing I don’t like about this is there’s a decent chance Kjerstad turns into a LH Eloy and Ortiz turns into Jose Iglesias. I do like Povich and Beavers as secondary pieces though but I’m just not a fan of the two headliners.

Oh you mean acquire more savages like Eloy and Moncada (both top 10 mlb prospects when the Sox traded for them)? At least the Sox did well with the pitching prospects. Cease and Giolito were quality starters with the Sox, López turned into a solid receiver, and Dunning turned into Lynn who was a quality starter up until last season. The only one that really went bust of those 5 was Kopech and I still think he’d be a solid reliever if they gave up starting him.

I mentioned in a post above that the Sox had 5 top 100 mlb pitching prospects during the last rebuild. They currently have 1. Maybe Nastrini or one of these other guys gets there too but it’s not nearly enough. Take Atlanta’s pitching prospects for Cease, draft a pitcher first round in 24, and then maybe they have a good foundation to build from on the pitching side.

If you’re not a contender to sign top FA arms like the Sox, you need 8-10 legit starting pitching prospects to maybe turn into 2 or 3 high quality mlb starters. Sox aren’t even close. In 2018 the Sox had Giolito, Dunning, López, Kopech, Cease, and others all as prospects and it still wasn’t enough to fill out a quality rotation for more than 1.5 seasons.

Very true, it’s not just the Sox

Agree 100%. This is the only way for the Sox to acquire quality starting pitching - via trade and draft. They are a complete non-factor for the top 7 FA arms every winter.

You’re being obtuse. He signs for the same or more money than Eloy is making in 2024 was the underlying assumption in this comparison. Presumably, that means he passes a physical. If he doesn’t pass a physical, he doesn’t get signed and it’s a moot point obviously.

Again, does it matter? If you’re paying him $14M or equal/greater than Eloy you’re committed to that contract. So no need to caveat anything else when picking between the two in terms of 2024 performance.

“Medicals say otherwise” please explain…. if he gets $14M+ presumably that means he passes a physical. I’ll be tracking this closely. I’ll be shocked if he pitches 100+ innings in 2024 and since you’re referencing fWAR in your comparison I’ll also wager he finishes 2024 with less than 1 fWAR. I think Eloy will beat that in 2024.

Since Eaton was traded whenever that was