JUGGERNAUT

You'll like this: ANA 0H ATL 0H BAL 1H/9AB Tejada 1H, Palmeiro 1W BOS 3H/9AB Mueller 1H, Varitek 1H, Millar 1H, Ramirez 1W, Ortiz 1W CUB 0H/8AB Barrett 1W CIN 0H CLE 5H/24AB Gerut 1, Belliard 1, 1W, Crisp 2, Broussard 1W, Sizemore 1 DET 2H/17AB Pena 1, Higginson 1, White 1W, Young 1W, Martinez 1W FLA 0H KAN 1H/6AB DeJesus 1 LOS 0H MIN 7H/22AB Ford 1, LeCroy 1, Rivas 1, Stewart 1, Jones 1, Cuddyear 2W, Mauer 2, Morneau 1W NYY 3H/8 Giambi, Matsui, Crosby, Sheffield 1W OAK 1H/9 Kielty 1, 1W SEA 4H/13 Ibanez 1, Winn 1, Bloomquist 1, Olivo 1, Boone 1W TAM 0H/9AB TEX 2H/8AB Soriano, Young TOR 1H/5AB Catalnatto WAS 0H/4AB CLE & MIN will probably give him more trouble in 05. Expect a slight decline.

It's not as big a difference as you would think. The opposition was able to hit HR's at the Jake last yr. CLE Home: 70HR, Opp 94HR; Away: 114HR, Opp 107 PHI Home: 113HR, Opp 115HR; Away: 102HR, Opp 99 He's going to have just as a hard a time on the road. Milwood 04 Home 4.95ERA 63.2IP 22W 63K .275 Away 4.77ERA 77.1IP 29W 62K .281 *projected out to 100IP each & his K-BB = H 65, A 42 In 2000 he had close to H 56, A 63 In 2003 he had close to H 80, A 32 I don't see the optimism. He'll have more W & less K's in the AL for sure.

Mark B 02-04 k-bb Pre All-Star 3.95 392 106 240 0.271 134 Pos All-Star 3.77 322.2 67 178 0.269 111 (135*) Freddy G 02-04 Pre All-Star 3.76 378.1 102 293 0.238 191 Pos All-Star 4.94 256.2 96 216 0.272 120 (177*) *projected to 392ip 82W, 217K *projected to 378ip 141W, 318K Marky is pretty balanced. ERA, KK-B, & BAvs are pretty consistent in both. Fredy is better than Mark in the Pre but worse in the Pos. His KK-B is fairly consistent though. Garcia's the exact opposite of Radke. It's so errie looking at the 3yr avgs for the both it's scary. If you could combine them you'd have one of the very best pitchers in the game.

04 Freddy G': Pre-All Star 3.45era 127.2ip 35W 105K .240 K-W = 70 Pos-All Star 4.37era 82.1ip 29W 079K .244 K-W = 82* *projected to 127ip is 40W, 122K. 04 Mark B's: Pre-All Star 4.03era 127.1ip 25w 98k .285 K-W = 73 Pos-All Star 3.74era 118.0ip 26w 67k .256 K-W = 41* *projected to 127ip is 31W, 72K As you can see Freddy maintained his K-W power in the 2nd 1/2 but Mark didn't. I think that's why most analysts consider Freddy as the ace.

What they are looking at along with ERA is K-BB. Garcia has a better K-BB than Mark so that gives him the nod over Mark. K-BB really shouldn't be affected by where you play.

On Adkins I don't see what you're seeing: Aug 4.96ERA 16.1IP .318BA Sep 8.71ERA 10.1IP .367BA

I messed the whole thing up. 05 SOX vCLE 3, @MIN 3, @CLE 3, vSEA 3, vMIN 2, @DET 2, @KCR 3, @OAK 3, vDET 3, vKCR 3, @TOR 3, @TAM 3, vBAL 4, vTEX 3, @CUB 3, @ANA 4, @TEX 4, vANA 3, vCLE 3, @COL 3, @SDP 3, vARZ 3, vLOS 3, vKCR 3, vCUB 3, @DET 3, @OAK 3, vTAM 3, vOAK 3 pre-AS Break 51W 05 SOX @CLE 4, vDET 3, vBOS 4, @KCR 3, @BAL 4, vTOR 3, vSEA 3, @NYY 3, @BOS 3, vMIN 3, vNYY 3, @MIN 3, @SEA 3, @TEX 3, vDET 4, vKCR 3, vANA 3, @KCR 3, @MIN 3, vCLE 3, vMIN 4, @DET 4, @CLE 3 pos-AS break 40W I think the schedule favors us. We're done with OAK in the first 1/2 & I think that early series out W should set the tone for the rest. 6-3 vs OAK is +4W improvement. There's really nothing in the 1st 1/2 conducive to a long losing streak either. The worst stretch looks like @CUB 3, @ANA 4, @TEX 4, vANA 3. But that begins with a high-octane series I expect the Sox to win. The 2nd 1/2 is tougher. A worst nightmare stretch in @NYY 3, @BOS 3, vMIN 3, vNYY 3, @MIN 3. This will make or break the divsion crown for us. If we have a winning record out of that stretch the rest is gravy. I hope El-Duque can at least remain in the rotation through that stretch.

Division records: 05 SOX vs CLE (11-8), vs DET (11-8), vs MIN (10-9), vs KCR (12-7) What it takes: +1, +3 +1 -1

As a result the Sox will still score over 800 R. -60+ They will give up no more than 730 R. -100+ Closely resembliing the ANA 04 team. 91W-71L. DET will improve on both it's record vs MIN (7-12), CLE (10-9), & KCR (8-11) but fall victim to the SOX (11-8). 05 DET vs SOX (8-11), vs MIN (9-10), vs CLE (11-8), & KCR (10-9). Percival will make that much of a difference. MIN will likewise finish 91W-71L but the Sox will own H2H & host the div champ game & win it.

AL NPERA predictions: Garcia & Buehrle : top A15 Garland & Contreras : top A25 - I just feel it this year! Hernandez : top B20 - I just don't see him having 162+ IP Cotts : top B40 - When Duque is on DL he'll get first nod. Herm : top B40 - If Cotts fails he'll take over the spot. Takatsu: top B10. Slight decline. Marte: top B10 vs LH, Herm: top B20 vs RH in 8th. Vizc: top B30 vs LH, Politte: top B30 vs RH in 7th. Adkins: topB70, & ??? : top B40 - they'll get one more guy They will give up no more than 730 R. AL NPERA ranks: A5 Garcia 3.10 vs A25 3.83 (03) A14 Buehrle 3.52 vs A20 3.71 (03) B26 Hernandez 3.17 vs B21 Hernandez 2.96 A29 Garland, Jon 4.10 vs A30 3.98 (03) A30 Contreras 4.13 vs B11 2.44 (03) B7 Takatsu 2.01 B17 Marte 2.89 vs B2 Marte 1.87 (03) B39 Vizcaino 3.34 vs B88 Vizcaino, Luis 4.75 (03) C41 Politte 3.55 vs C56 Politte 4.30 (03) B50 Hermanson 3.67 vs B57 Hermanson 4.05 B54 Cotts 4.02 vs C122 Cotts 7.73 B80 Adkins 4.80 vs C85 Adkins 5.29

Is it ok to dream here? AL RPG Predictions: Pods will rank in top 30. Rowand will rank in top 20. Dye will rank in top 40, Thomas will rank #1 B level. Konerko will rank in top 20. Everett will rank in top 30. Uribe will rank in top 50. Iggy will rank in top 50. AJP will rank in top 50. Crede will rank in top 60. As a result the Sox will still score over 800 R. RPG ranks: 1-A77 Podsednik 4.34R (04) vs A26 Podsednik 6.30R (03) 2-A14 Rowand 6.89R (04) vs B21 Rowand 5.25R (03) 3-A54 Dye 5.17R (04) + B1 Thomas 8.97R (04) 4-A18 Konerko 6.69R 5-B58 Everett 4.40R (04) vs A20 Everett 6.49R (03) 6-A44 Uribe 5.43R A44 7-A45 Iggy = Polanco, Placido 5.46R (04) - Who he's being compared to. 8-A70 Pierzynski 4.55R (04) vs A35 Pierzynski 5.66R (03) 9-A71 Crede 4.39R A71 (04) vs A66 Crede 4.64R (03)

Ok in the Lee & Koney debate at least we agree getting Pods was the right thing. You may be right. Lee might have been the cornerstone of the deal all along for Milw. It could be that KW's asking price was initally Sheets for Lee & then they worked it down from there. We might never know. But we can certainly keep an eye on both in the years to come. I would be surprised if Lee digresses hits wise. Those streaks & those May-Sep numbers are just too strong. He will likewise benefit in a league & division that features fewer power pitchers than the AL does. I can't wait to see him battle the Cub. As for Gload I think you're wrong. I think he's going to get plenty of AB's as a late inning PR for Koney. This team is going to have to manufacture runs a LOT more than the 04 team. I really see Koney losing about 100 AB's & Gload getting them.

I don't see Iggy starting out at #2. I see Rowand being a major fixture there. If Pods gets on you need just a long single to have a scoring op because he's excellent at getting a lead before the swing. If Pods gets on with a double you need just a hit to bring him in it. If Pods gets on with a triple you need just a SF. Rowand is perfect for all 3 situations. Take a look at Rowand's hit chart: http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb...0023&statType=1 His Fly Outs are deep enough to advance Pods. You definitely want a guy at #2 who can advance Pods with an out if he can't get on. Pods, Rowand, Dye, Koney, Everett, Uribe, Iggy, AJP, Crede OR Pods, Rowand, Thomas, Koney, Dye, Uribe, Iggy, AJP, Crede If Iggy has the numbers move him to #2 in 06. Rowand would then be the #3 & with Koney expected to leave Thomas becomes #4.

Ok let's agree on this much. This year will be his biggest challenge yet. But he's met that challenge by strengthening the pen. What impresses me about Beane is that he's able to always find guys (even if they just stick around for a year or two) that produce winning records & era's < 5 in his rotation. Let's not forget that his teams have not had an easy go at all in the past 5 yrs. Remember the losing streaks & the early deficits they faced? But when they get in the groove they are damn near unbeatable. All of Beane's A's years seem to be weak to start but strong to finish. Not unlike the Twins. We led the division for 57 days before Thomas went down & they zoomed past us. If anything maybe the new makeover will lead us to be stronger finishers.

I agree as well. The Sox now have Marte & Vizc to handle LH's & Politte & Herm to handle RH's. There's no reason to pitch Shingo more than 1 inning unless we go into extra innings. I suspect Adkins will be used only in mop ups, land slides or early exits. That's something Oz & KW will have to decide. How many extra inning games do they expect this year & whether that warrants a 12th arm?

I can't recall how bad the HR's were that Farns gave up last year but some analysts seem to think he will do much better at Comerica than Wrigley.

So none of you are thinking about Herm as the replacement starter? Herm SP IP/ER Winnable: 6/1, 5+/1, 6+/2, 5+/1, 5+/2, 6/3, 7/2, 6/4, 6+/2, 7/0, 5/3, 6+/2, Horrible..: 3+/6, 5/4, 5/5, 5/4, 6/5, 5+/6 12 good starts, 6 bad starts beats any of our 04 AAAfodder guys. I think that's why KW was quick to get him along with the Duque signing.

http://sabrsox.blogspot.com/2005/01/under-...ove-season.html A good article related to Win Share projections for 2005. The IN vs OUT in the lineup puts us at a +5 WS over 2004. A lot of that is coming from Iggy though. The IN vs OUT in the staff puts us at a +12 WS over 2004. E-LO, worse than Adkins, & Jackson vs Duque, Herm, & Vizc.

http://www.asian-athlete.com/DaScoopsFormD...ay.aspx?ID=2472 This is a real good article on Iguchi's accomplishments in the JPL. He actually hit 7th in the Japan Series in 00, 01. As his OBP grew so did his place in the lineup to where he was the leadoff hitter for the Hawks in 04. http://www.bloglines.com/blog/TheCheat?subid=2931256 This is a quick analysis of what to expect from Iggy. 280A/370O/450S - 820 OPS - perfect for 7th.

Radke's a finisher: 3yr Pre All-Star 4.59ERA .284BA 3yr Pos All-Star 3.62ERA .266BA How do you explain that? The best I can come up with is that he feeds off momentum of the other front-line starters in the 2nd half. There seems to be a pattern there.

I believe he hit in the middle of the lineup in Japan. 3rd or 4th. Putting him at 7th behind Uribe & in front of AJP is not putting pressure on him. As for the 9th study let's take a look at AL teams: Bal Matos .275O .333S .224A (worse than Crede) Bos Mueller .365O .446S .283A (weakest OPS) NYY Womack .349O .385S .307A (weakest OPS) Tam Hall .300O .366S .255A (worst OBP) Sox Crede .299O .418S .239A (worst OBP, BA) Cle Peralta .321O .280S .240A (worse than Crede) Det Infante .317O .449S .264A (better than Crede but still poor OBP) Kan Gotay .315O .375S .270A (poorest OBP) Min Rivas .283O .432S .256A (and you thought Crede's OBP was bad?) Ana Molina .313O .404S .276A (poorest OBP) Oak Byrnes .347O .467S .283A (weakest OPS) Sea Reese .271O .303S .221A (they needed a SS) Tex Barajas .276O .453S .249A (poorest OBP) Basically it's the weakest OPS guy or weakest OBP guy. Crede is deserving of 9th. It could actually help him. 02-04: 9th 74AB .270A .349O .446S .795OPS 02-04: Lead: 269AB .264A .288O .480S .768OPS If what you say is true about the 9th hitter leading off more innings than 2-8 then this move should help Crede go from a low 700 OPS to a high 700 one.

I like Pods as a player & I think it was a good move. We needed Pods & Lee more than we needed Koney & Maggs IMHO.

QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Feb 10, 2005 -> 05:02 PM) My List 1. Yankees (RJ goes for 30W) 2. Red Sox (Schilling starting late) 3. Twins (organizational depth) 4. Oak (organizational depth) 5. White Sox (Buehrle, Garcia) 6. Angels (Colon) 7. Blue Jays (Halladay) 8. Cle (CC, JW) The report is unreal. I'm looking at these ERA's for CLE well over 5 & how he places them at 4 & then I look at the question marks on OAK with ERA's in the 4's & he places them at 7. It's a joke. Until proven otherwise Beane knows what he's doing & should produce another fine rotation. Oak SP 2004 65-46, 0 starts by a pitcher w era > 5 2003 67-52, 7 starts by a pitcher w era > 5 2002 75-41, 18 starts by a pitcher w era > 5 2001 80-39, 18 starts by a pitcher w era > 5 2000 71-53, 52 starts by a pitcher w era > 5 It's not all the big 3 (Hudson, Mulder, Zito). Redman, Harden, Lidle, Lilly, Halama, Durscherer, Harang, Hiljus, Appier, Heredia have all pitched starts for the A's over the years & have all had ERA's under 5. Beane has been masteful at finding guys to fill out the rotation year after year who produce winning records & era's < 5. Beane has to be among the top GM's in getting the most out of rookie starters the past 5 yrs. Even better than Ryan of Min who has basically been doing it with a 1-2 starter punch the past 3 yrs.

My List 1. Yankees (RJ goes for 30W) 2. Red Sox (Schilling starting late) 3. Twins (organizational depth) 4. Oak (organizational depth) 5. White Sox (Buehrle, Garcia) 6. Angels (Colon) 7. Blue Jays (Halladay) 8. Cle (CC, JW) The report is unreal. I'm looking at these ERA's for CLE well over 5 & how he places them at 4 & then I look at the question marks on OAK with ERA's in the 4's & he places them at 7. It's a joke. Until proven otherwise Beane knows what he's doing & should produce another fine rotation.

-Cliff Lee has Contreras type #'s with less experience. -Milwood is moving to a more favorable hitters park than Philly. -Elarton washes out of COL but has respectible #'s in 1/2 a season. Sorry I don't but it. CC vs Buerhle : adv MarkB JW vs Garcia : adv Garcia KM vs Hernandez : even CL vs JC : adv Contreras SE vs JG : adv Garland (All of the AL hasn't even seen Elarton yet!)