JUGGERNAUT

Overbay was a good, cheap easily tradeable for the Brewers to get a new OF or sign Dye to replace Pods. There were plenty of options available to the Brewers to trade for Koney & replace Pods. So I don't buy that for the reason Lee was traded instead of Koney. Likewise I disagree with the general premise that we are stronger D with Pods, Rowand, Dye vs Lee, Rowand, Pods. I think Lee at this stage in his career can make more plays than Dye. Not to mention the durability factor of Lee. Who is more likely to avg 95+ AB a month for you? As for the hustle factor that was one play! I can remember more plays in his time with the Sox where Lee gave up his body either to make a play in the field or make a play on the bases. It's pretty petty thinking to give up that much production over 1 play.

No. I don't know where you got that idea. You always put your worst hitter at 9th so he has the fewest ab's. On this team that's Crede. AJ's has a much better avg but both are low 700 OPS players. Iggy is expected to be at least a high 700 OPS player with a higher OBP than both of them so he should get the 7th spot. Uribe in comparison is expected to at least be an 800 OPS player so he gets the 6th spot. That's why every NL team has the pitcher hit 9th. I think usually in the AL the worst hitter actually has good speed (Harris) so that might be where you got the idea.

Ok. But again we are talking specifically about a bench player role & not an everyday player. I'm saying the article is ignoring a bench that features players who are strong against either & some time both LH & RH. That diminishes the need for a strong RH bat off the bench. I can't agree more with the article's belief that we will miss Lee's production the most. I think this is exactly why most analysts are downplaying us. Lee 2004: April 80AB .263 .341 .475 .816 May 102AB .304 .379 .373 .752 June 106AB .311 .368 .453 .820 July 97AB .309 .361 .773 1.134 Aug 91AB .330 .367 .593 .961 Sep 103AB .330 .400 .534 .934 We should have traded Koney to the Brewers for Pods+Vizc+PTBNL. I don't see any one on the Sox contributing 315A, 375O, 540S from May-Sep in 05.

I'm agreeing with you too much today I agree that both Oz & KW forgot about Lee's hitting streaks in 04. Lee might just have the best average vs any Sox or Cub everyday player incl ex-players Maggs & Sosa in 05. Lee 04 April 80AB .263 .341 .475 .816 May 102AB .304 .379 .373 .752 June 106AB .311 .368 .453 .820 July 97AB .309 .361 .773 1.134 Aug 91AB .330 .367 .593 .961 Sep 103AB .330 .400 .534 .934 Koney's never produced 5 straight months of 300+ & Frank hasn't done that in years. I'm all for adding speed but not at the cost of Lee. KW blew this one. Overbay has solid trade value to where a Koney for Pods + Vizc + PTBNL makes sense to Milw as well. Overbay could have been traded for an OF to replace Pods. D Lee's worked hard to become an above average defender in LF so I would leave him there. Move Pods to RF but let him cheat to the left. Let Rowand cheat to the left as well in CF & reduce the area Lee has to cover. Net result is that the Sox are much better D than Pods, Rowand, & Dye. Since you're replacing Koney with the much cheaper Gload you actually have more to spend or save. There's no reason to spend on Dye with Lee on the team. Dare I say that gives you enough to outbid SFG for Vizquel? Again with Vizquel there is no reason to sign Iggy. Saving even more $. Still plenty left for AJP, Hernandez, & Herm. 44 HR's is great but I'll take a player that has 5 300A+ months & 3 900+ OPS month s over the 44 HR guy any year.

70% Twins? That is just sad. Were is the hope? Here's a better question to ask. It's simple over/under. Min 92W over/under? under. Chi 83W over/under? over. Cle 80W over/under? under. Det 72W over/under? over. Kan 58W over/under? over. Min: We've seen enough of the new MIF in 04 to assume a decline D. Chi: Upgraded rotation & pen more than makes up for loss of HRs. Cle: 9-10 vs Det last yr. Det outscored them 136-98. Percival & Maggs give Det a bigger edge. Det: See above. Kan: I have to believe they can eek out at least 1 more win.

Rowand should bat 2nd. Career wise & 04 wise he beats Uribe in BA + OBP. Iggy is to green to slot for 2nd. He should follow Uribe to speed on the base pads for AJ. Dye is coming off a better year than Everett. I think #3 is his spot to lose in ST. When Frank returns he should have #3 & Dye/Everett to 5th. If Carl is doing great when Frank returns he'll get more of Frank's & Dye's ABs. Otherwise he'll be primarily a bench player to face RHers.

I never said we were better. I pick the Twins to win the division on the strength of their pen. But I don't believe we will finish 9 gms back either. I see the Twins as a low 90's W team & ourselves as a high 80's W team. But with a little luck & maybe some players realizing their potential (Garland, Crede) I believe winning the division is not out of the question. If Jurassic is doing well in the 1st half he'll become #2 on the depth chart to spell Dye & maybe allow Frank to come back more gradually. I see Gload primarily as insurance vs Pods in LF & as a late game PR replacement for Koney. I think it's going to happen much more often because the lop-sided scores & HR production will be down having lost Maggs & Lee.

Agree entirely. Ozzie talked Val out of SH & I would like for him to do the same with Jurassic. Likewise the Oz factor comes into play with Konerko. Oz is not going to hesitate to use Gload as a PR for Koney late in the game. With the expected decrease in both HR's & lop-sided scores that's going to be often. I wouldn't be surprised if Koney finishes with 100 fewer AB's in 05 vs 04.

If you're going to negate Koney's worst yr then you should do the same for Everett. That leaves you with Koney (04, 02) vs Everett (03,02). Everett still wins that debate. You have to go with proven success at DH. All of the numbers point to Everett putting up better numbers in that role than both Koney & Gload. Remember Everett was not 100% in 04. He should be in 05.

To that I will add that one constant for most of those 4 yrs was Mient, Koskie, & Guzman & they are all gone. I just think it's a little presumptuous to think that such a loss will go without any significant drop in offense or MIF defense.

What does Gload have to do to prove he can be a strong bat off the bench? I don't buy into this RH & LH bat stuff. What count's his how a guy does against RH & LH hurlers. 3 yr avgs vs RH, LH: Gload 218AB .298A, .358O, .445S .803 Gload 47AB, .383A, .420O, .574S, .994 That looks pretty strong to me

Well we would be remiss if we didn't look at Koney's DH #'s as well. 3yr avg DH Koney: 125AB, 232A 324O 344S It's a lot harder than it looks. Everett is not as bad a DH as you think.

QUOTE(upnorthsox @ Feb 10, 2005 -> 04:30 AM) So then our analysis for '04 to '05 should be that we finish 9 games back of the Twins? I refuse to accept that & it would surprise. I'm not saying will win more than the Twins but we should definitely be closer to them in wins this year. This belief that Mauer, Morteau, Cuddyear are all locks for being top 5 in their position is poppy cock fantasy spewed out by the likes of Gammons & friends.

I doubt very much that Koney would agree to that move in his run for FA year. 3yr avgs as DH: Everett 239AB 276A 340O 448S Gload 32AB 250A 314O 406S

Here's my feeling on this. Assuming we have a mil or two to spare. There will plenty of RP trying to make rosters on other teams. There will be some that will be cut simply because they couldn't do enough to upseat the veterans of those teams. They still might be better than Cotts/Adkins. I agree we should consider either of them because Cotts appears to have better stuff & better peripheral numbers than Adkins. Opponents are hitting much less against him than Adkins. So I think the Sox should keep their options & $'s open to relief pitchers that will become available after the final cuts.

Dude your claim that Gload outperformed Everett in 04 is valid. Your claim that Gload will outperform Everett at DH as an everday player is not. Gload simply has played that role on an everyday basis to make that claim. Just about every hitter in the game will tell you it's harder to hit as a DH than play a position because you lose focus on the bench most of the time. That's why Thomas' 1B numbers are much better than his DH numbers. Gload will get AB' substituting for Koney at 1B, Pods in LF, & maybe Dye in RF. He'll probably play RF on those days Dye needs a rest & we're facing a LH. Everett will have a chance to prove himself in the 1st half as to whether he should bump Gload down to 3rd in RF substitution. I really envision Timo in a pinch runner/hitter defensive replacement type role. Rarely ever getting a start. A similar type argument revolves around Burke. Though I really can't see why Davis is #2 over Burke on the depth chart. I think that was just a waste of $1M myself.

Ok, My mistake. Next time we have Kong at the plate and one of three players on second, I know I'll sleep better at night knowing we'll score at least 27.2% of the time. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> 27.7% for Koney, 27.2% for AJP The generalized point is that instead of fixating on HR's we should likewise look at 2B's & 3B's production. Glancing over yearly numbers that production figures to the be the highest on the team in the last 4 yrs. With AJP & Koney being the weakest in that production in the lineup it's a plus for the Sox that they both hit for high averages. 2000 325 D, 33 T 2001 300 D, 29 T 2002 289 D, 29 T 2003 303 D, 19 T 2004 284 D, 19 T - / + : -Lee 37 D -Val 20 D, 3T -Mag 8 D, 2T (24 D, 5T) 81 D, 8 T +Dye 29 D, 4T +Pods 29 D, 8T +Iggy 34 D, 2T 92 D, 14 T Pods should lead the team in combined D+T. That's why it's important to put your highest BA bat behind him. The best combination of BA + OBP with good speed is Rowand & not Uribe. That result is the same whether you compare their 04 or their career #'s.

I agree that when you are talking about adding another player to the 25 man roster both $ & player availability have to be taken into consideration. Unless you have someone in mind upgrading our leadoff hitter is not an option because of player availability. Likewise most of the good MIF backups are taken. Consider what it would cost & who you are going to get to upgrade vs Crede, or Pods, or a backup for Uribe. Then consider what it would cost & who you could get to upgrade vs Adkins. Adkins will probably face more opps were the tying or winning run is at the plate than Crede, Pods, or a backup will represent the tying or winning run.

You need to learn how to read better. No where in my discussion of doubles & the lineup do I ever make any claim to OVERALL run predictions from these players. I am talking SITUATIONAL run prediction! That situation is very simply Koney at the plate with a man on 2B & AJP at the plate with a man on 2B. Nothing more than that! Now if you think using a players OBP is a better than using an average of the 2B production you're a fool. Likewise if you believe using a player's OBP is better than BA for determining the probability of a runner scoring from 2B on one hit you are a bigger fool.

We can't overlook the difference in park dimensions betw these two. Cell is 330, 377, 400, 372, 335 L-R. Rounded CF top. Miler is 344, 371, 400, 374, 345 L-R. Flat CF top. The Cell is a beautifully designed park for OFers. There are no edges & no ravines. It's dimensions mark it a pitcher's nightmate. Miller on the other hand has a trapezoid like top in CF. With those edges that makes it harder to make plays with weird bounces & such. Pods could really flourish playing CF in the Cell but I like him in LF as well because both spots give the Sox advantages. If you put him in LF the short 330 porch means he can cheat more to the right. That allows Rowand to do the same. That configuration means Pods actually covers more or the OF than either Rowand or Dye. Rowand's ability to cheat to the right shrinks the amount of area Dye has to cover. With Rowand's speed you can't cheat to the right like that if you play him in LF.

QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Feb 9, 2005 -> 08:07 PM) SOX 05 projection vs LH: http://baseball.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batt...Type=2&type=reg .261A .326O .463S .789OPS -/+: -Lee 156AB .308A .385O .551S .937OPS +Pod 147AB .224A .294O .354S .648OPS 04 +Pod 148AB .270A .333O .426S .759OPS 03 : major decline -Maggs 59AB .339A .371O .542S .913OPS -Everett 52AB .231A .293O .288S .582 -Gload 40AB .425A .452O .650S 1.102 Totl: 159AB +Dye 161AB .280A .376O .491S .866OPS : major decline -Burke 61AB .311A .377O .410S .787 -Olivo 40AB .450A .477O .925S 1.402 Tot: 101AB +AJP 97AB .227A .224O .320S .544OPS : major decline -Val 136AB .191A .262O .404S .666OPS +Ure 178AB .264A .302O .551S .853OPS : major upgrade -Harris 72AB .181A .224O .264S .488OPS +Iggy 116AB .284A .331O .422S .753OPS : major upgrade DH's Wildcards: Everett & Thomas Thomas 050AB .200 .420 .420 .840 04 Thomas 149AB .315 .446 .732 1.177 03 Everett 52AB .231 .293 .288 .582 04 Everett 64AB .266 .319 .406 .725 03 : major upgrade - We can expect our DH to do much better vs LH in 05. Overall: slight upgrade vs LH You are only concerned with 04 production as it relates to 05 projections. Therefore when doing the comparison you ask who from the 04 team (if they were still on the 25man roster) would be most likely to get those AB's? That would be Olivo, Burke, Everett, & Gload. Their combined 04 AB's have shifted to Dye & AJP. Any AB's they have against LH will be those they take away from others like Borchy, Perez, & Thomas. In that respect you could do a bench comparison & say bench-wise the Sox have a major upgrade. Since Gload will likely get most of Borchy's & Perez' s AB's vs LH's & Everett will get the 1st 1/2 of Thomas' AB's vs LH's it's definitely a major upgrade. But these will total about 1/2 the AB's of an everyday player. Factoring in the Bench players then you can make the claim the Sox have solidly upgraded the team vs LH. I wouldn't go as far to say it's a major upgrade though.

The $102M Cub with $5M to spend are likely to trade for the Oak's Dotel. Dotel, 28, $3M(04) had 36 SVs betw Hou & Oak in 04. 50K/15W NL, 72K/18W in AL. I have to believe the price would be high to give up a power pitcher like Dotel.

I'm really surprised at some of these answers. You're putting MIF depth ahead of another solid RP. Hasn't MIN dominance the past 3 yrs taught you anything?

QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Feb 10, 2005 -> 12:00 AM) There's at least a 27.7% chance of a score when one of Pods, Aaron, or Dye/Thomas 2B. There's at least a 27.2% chance of a score when one of Everett/Dye, Uribe, or Iggy 2B. * Again you can't score from 2B without a hit or a major error. BA is the best indicator for how likely a player with get a hit with 1 swing of the bat.

3 yr Timo: 68AB PH vs 669AB RON,ISP. It's not an accurate measure to use his PH #'s. As a LH bat he can hit RHers. 3 yr: vs L: 136AB, .154A .201O .191S vs R: 947AB, 290A, 324O, 415S