JUGGERNAUT

Does he not respect Japan players? Iggy over Harris is expected to produce 22 more R & 55 RBI for the Sox in 05. That's the biggest upgrade of all of our new bats. Yet Gammons doesn't have the decency to mention even his name. That's why I don't put much stock in these analysts. They are completely overlooking this signing & what he means upgrade wise for the Sox.

04 SOX: (865r, 823rbi) vs (831r, 782er, 799rbi, 50uer) -Sox deletions: Maggs, Lee, Val, Harris. - Sox additions: Dye, Pods, AJP, Iggy -Maggs 93R, 108rbi (590 ab proj) + Dye 96r, 88rbi (590 ab proj) : +3r, -20 rbi -CLee 103R, 99rbi + Pods 85R, 39rbi : -18r, -60rbi -JVal 73R, 70rbi + AJP 45R, 77rbi : -28r, +7rbi - Harris (68, 27) + Iguchi : (90, 82) : +22r, +55rbi 05 Total: -21r, -18rbi (844r, 805rbi) -Sox deletions: ELO, Schow, MJ, Cotts - Sox additions: JC, ELD, Vizc, Herm -ELO 124r, 112rbi + JC 114r. 99rbi : -10r, -13rbi -Scho 74r, 67rbi + ELD 41r, 36rbi (proj out to 20 st) : -33r, -31rbi -MJ 43r, 60rbi (out to 72ip) + Vizc 35r, 41rbi : -8r, -19rbi -Cotts 90r, 80rbi (out to 131ip) + Herm 71r, 62rbi : -19r, -18rbi 05 Total: -43r, -73rbi (822r,750rbi) The season can't get here any faster!

This is so damn typical of the naysayers on this board. Do you bother to look at WHERE they produced those numbers? http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/stats/ml...5392&statType=1 Take a look at his triples, & fly outs near the wall. Those are HR's at the Cell. Using Pods 04 #'s to project his 05 is a complete joke. At least use his career average. Every fantasy site is selling the guy to have a big year. Likewise seasoned Sox fans should know the importance of where a guy hits in the lineup. Balance means more than you care to admit. Pods, Iggy, Dye: All can score from 1st with a long single or short double. Koney/Thomas, Everett/Koney: You best power in the lineup. Rowand, Uribe: Both can score from 1st with a long single or short double. AJ, Crede: Your 2nd best power duo in the lineup. I can't recall any time in the past 4 yrs where the Sox had that kind of balance in their lineup. Likewise I have no idea what in the hell you are doing to come up with a total of 678. That's utterly ridiculous. If you're going to do a R, RBI assessment then have the decency to simply replace 04 numbers for players. I already did that. The Sox will lose 20-25 R, & 20-25 RBI. That's just strictly taking either 04 or career avg of the new players & swapping them for the old. I did that conservatively by taking whichever was lower (career avg, 04). I'm much more interested in the projected 70+ R, RBI will save with the changes in the pitching staff.

Don't count me amongst them. I go into every season believing that Garland could have a breakout season. It's not talent, skill, or mechanics that's holding him back. Like Farnsworth he's a head case. I am hoping a tough-nosed no-nonsense C like AJ will be able to help him. I don't think he's going to tolerate him shaking off his calls & I know he won't tolerating him missing the calls. If nothing else I expect both Contreras & Garland to reduce their walk totals. They certainly have the skill to do so.

Please read the 12/10/04 news link at MLB. Maggs was scared of never being able to play again. He contacted Thomas. Thomas put him in touch with Weil & Weil got the ball rolling for the Schraden treatment. He requested that Weil not contact the WhiteSox about anything they discussed. Now that's clear factual evidence that Maggs was not disclosing his medical status with the White Sox. Since the Sox had a Dec deadline they needed to know what that status was. If Maggs was waiting for the Sox to over arbitration then he should have asked Weil or Thomas or make the call himself to KW & let him know what was going on. I think we all can agree that trying to bluff your way to an arbitration offer is not being honest & sincere.

The Sox had three very tradeable players for the A's : Rowand, Lee, & Garland. As I said earlier the Sox would have included cash so Lee for Hudson cash wise would be a wash. Based had expressed a desire to get Lee last year. He was mentioned in trade rumors. The problem with looking back is timing. The Sox had already traded Lee & picked up Hernandez before Hudson made his deadline date. So KW probably would have had to pay a higher price to get it done before the Hernandez signing. Afterwards he still had Garland & Rowand to use. Again both had been rumored in A's trades in the past. Without Lee the cost is higher in prospects but then you are getting Hudson in return. As for a Mulder I am glad that KW did not pursue him. The risk is much higher than Hudson. Beane choose to keep Zito because he's the most durable of the 3. Which brings us back to Hernandez. If you maximize his rest betw starts with what the schedule affords your looking at the best quality start man on the 05 Sox staff. If they can somehow get 30 starts out him only 7 or 8 are likely to be bad. But I fear Ozzie is just going to treat him like everyone else & he'll be on the shelf by Aug. Even in that scenario at least they'll start strong while Thomas is getting ready.

He didn't even mention Iggy! Now let's be honest here. If Iggy were the starting 2B for the Red Sox this year how many paragraphs would Gammons write about him?

I don't think it's as negative as you think. He mentions KC as being the only team not likely to contend & he ends with a Williams quote emphasizing pitching. He even indicates that Contreras will likely be helped by Hernandez. He's not happy with the Lee move but seems to like the overall rotation & pen strength. He left out Iggy altogether

Basically Close & Late & your team's ahead This explains a little more why Min kicked our butts in that dept. SOX 04 SP: 62W-58L, MIN 04 SP : 59W-46L SOX 04 RP: 21W-21L, MIN 04 RP : 33W-24L We lost 12 SVO's alone from SP L's. Min had 12 fewer bad starts than us. If we had just 12 more winnable starts SOX 04 SP: 62W-46L, RP 27W-27L : Total 89W-73L If our rotation remains healthy we should get at least 12 more.

It's tough navigating betw the two threads. I posted the link to the offer mentioned in April in the Southtown. That says close to the 14M he was making in 04. 58/4 is 14.5M/yr so I think that's where that figure came from. If you have time check out the Dec link I posted in the other thread. Weil reports specifically that Maggs did not want him to tell the White Sox what they discussed. I agree wholeheartedly with you that if he was sincerely waiting for the Sox to make an arbitration offer he would have asked Weil to share his good news with the Sox. Especially given Thomas' involvement because Frank could make a stronger case for Maggs both in front of KW & JR. That link is an eye-opener. He now charges KW tried to bury him by questioning his ability to play next year at a time when Maggs himself was scared he would never play again. The word Jagbag is coming to mind

http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb...s_cws&fext=.jsp This link supports the 58/4 deal. Then of course Maggs denied the report in the NY Post that he turned down a 70/5 deal. http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb...s_cws&fext=.jsp That's the last of the talks. http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb...s_cws&fext=.jsp The Thomas-Weil-Schaden-Ordonez connection. That last article really leaves you shaking your head as to why Ordonez didn't just thank the Sox & Thomas in particular for steering him in the right direction to have a chance to play this year. He really owes a lot to Frank for getting involved during the off-season.

KW quotes: "We offered him $60 million -- and all cash -- before he got hurt, and after he was hurt, we offered him the same and he turned it down. We had to go on our way, and once he became a free agent, they stopped giving us information. I hope he's OK. I hope he can play. I also hope he doesn't hurt us." He doesn't mention yrs. I think he's rounded it off from the 58/4 deal that was confirmed last summer. The 70/5 was never confirmed. That was a NY Post rumor.

Those sound a lot more like overhaul suggestions than simply adding one more. The Sox just did an overhaul. 04 Sox SP (62W, 58L), RP (21W, 21L), 34SV 46SVO, 57H, 865 R+ 04 Min SP (59W, 46L), RP (33W, 24L), 48SV, 68SVO, 48H, 780 R+ Obvious weakness: +4 by SP vs +13 by SP. Overhaul: +Hernandez, +Vizc, +Herm 05 Sox SP: (65W, 50L) +15 beats Min rotation 05 Sox RP: (25W, 22L) +3 lags Min pen but good enough to win div. SOX RP vs RH Vizc .333O .522S .290A Adkins .327O .446S .288A Marte .341O .444S .263A Cotts .329O .399S .231A Herm .294O .358S .242A Politte .273O .312S .208A Shingo.226O .186S .150A SOX RP vs LH Politte .442O .595S .351A Adkins .397O .579S .327A Herm .354O .498S .285A Cotts .342O .519S .269A Shingo .294O .402S .215A Vizc .245O .341S .163A Marte .259O .214S .143A I think KW will be on the look out for a RP strong vs RH to bump Adkins & Cotts out of the pen. Quality or winnable start: 7th: Politte vs RH, Vizc vs LH 8th: Herm vs RH, Marte vs LH 9th: Shingo Poor start: 5th-6th: Adkins or Cotts :puke

Wrong again. I was looking for MLB information. Not general information. He's been in the personal disability insurance business for over 10 yrs. As I said in the other thread I'm done with Maggs. After discussing it at dinner time we agree that he lacks sincerity in his words. I'm not going to call him a liar but common sense leans to KW being more truthful. KW alleges the 58/4 deal was still on the table in Jul. If Maggs was leaning towards accepting arbitration over a 105/7 deal from a team like the Tigs then he could have had the Sox restructure the contract so that each yr was a player option yr. I think the Sox would have been more than happy to structure it that way. Doing this would have paid him more in 05 than arbitration.

I'm done with Maggs. We discussed this at dinner tonight. Remember Gonzo & CLE that year? They had talked during that offseason & Gonzo assured them he would not accept arbitration so they offered it any ways & got the picks when he signed elsewhere. Maggs says he was waiting for the Sox to offer arbitration .. now after the fact. What prevented him from calling KW up & saying go ahead & offer me arbitration. If your medical staff doesn't think I'll be ready to play I'll decline it. You have my word on that. The picks will be my parting gift to the Sox. If you think I'll be ready to play it will give me until late Feb to decide to accept. It just makes no sense that a player who was offered a 58/4 deal after the edema was discovered would choose arbitration over that deal. The Sox would have gladly restructured the 58/4 to give Maggs an out clause after 1 yr & the 14.5M is more than he would get in arbitration. Logic & common sense are on KW's side here. Maggs may not be a liar per-se but he certainly lacks sincerity.

I agree with you. After seeing how piss poor our rotation & pen were in 2004 that's were the $ needed to go. We were 3rd in R in 04, but were 29th in SVO. Our SV - SVO ratio was actually the best in the ALC & amongst the leaders in the AL (74%). When you breakdown our SVO weakness it's as follows: 65+ L from the rotation means the pen was handed 97 WIN & HOLD opps. We blew over 1/2 those opps & we left with a measly 47 SVO. I'm expecting no more than 50L from the rotation. That means the pen will get 112 WIN & HOLD opps. That's a 15 game difference over 04. If we just convert 1/2 of those were a 90 win team. The additions of Hernandez, Vizc, & Herm should get us there.

I'm talking mostly SVO. I think I can get that from MLB. Hang on. http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/stats/ml...&sortByStat=SVO MIN 9TH 68, DET 16TH 63, CLE 19TH 60, KCR 27TH 47, CWS 29TH 46 :puke I need to go put a bag over my head after reading that. The shame. The good news is a greatly improved rotation & pen should greatly improve that in 05. I would gladly trade 1 HR for every additional SVO.

QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Feb 8, 2005 -> 12:57 PM) The 25 gm clause applies to each year of the contract. The contract was structured similar to that of I-Rod. In fact there's the possibility the press is not reporting it correctly. In I-Rod's contract after 2 yrs if for whatever reason he is on the DL for 5 wks or more in any one season the remainder of the contract is void. In Maggs case that's after 1 yr & 25 days. The only question is whether it's for whatever reason or specific to the knee. The papers seem to suggest it's specific to the knee but that doesn't make sense with respect to I-Rod's contract so I'm thinking they are structured similarly.

What a bunch of tools. It means you center the trade around Lee for Hudson & give Beane pretty much whatever else he wants. It's not difficult. In hindsight that price was met already by Atlanta. So you know pretty much what it would have cost with Lee as the centerpiece. Boras was quoted as saying Detroit's medical staff is comfortable that Maggs will be ready to go by the start of ST. That's better than our situation with Thomas.

Steff if you want to believe that it would cost the Sox 6M for disability insurance on Ordonez 12M/1yr deal go right ahead. But you have yet to convince me. I have an uncle who deals exclusively with DL insurance & he says that preposterous. He mentioned X-games athletes are a higher risk than NFL (news to me) & that even the rights they pay are no where close to 50% of the value of the contract. So belief what you want. As for the latest quote, Boras, ""Their doctors have talked with Magglio's doctors. They're certainly comfortable he'll be ready to go by spring training."

I can not find a source for MLB. But I did find a source for college baseball. The premium cost is 1/2 that of college football. So if the avg for college football is 10K per 1M the avg for college baseball is 5K for 1M. As you pointed out the condition for Belle was detected prior to the signing of the contract & though he was cleared to play it was still considered a chronic condition at the time. The same applies for Gonzo. We are all speculating as to Maggs health on this. Maggs says he expects to be 75-80% by ST. That's perfectly reasonable giving his down time since June, 04. That's not a statement reflecting his current health status. it's a statement reflecting his ability to perform. I have read another statement where he has stated he expects to be 100% by the season opener. The point here is that there is no indication Maggs knee problem is a chronic one. I can't believe Illich would be dumb enough to offer a 105/7 deal if it was. So common sense tells me it's not. But since the bone edema thing is rare in MLB & there isn't much case history to go on it makes sense to be overtly cautious. A better analogy for all of this would be I-Rod since he had a knee problem as well. Maybe some one can find the insurance details surrounding his contract.

Let me try this again. You sign Maggs + Dye for 16M. You trade Lee + stuff + cash for Hudson. So it's really a question of whether Maggs, Dye, Hudson > Dye, Iguchi, Herm, Pods, Viz, & AJP Since I am not all convinced that Viz & Herm will greatly improve the Pen I'll take the 3 over the 6. That's from the Sox perspective. From the Det perspective. The contract is voidable any year after the first it says that in the Detroit Free Press. But again that's only if the DL time in encurred due to a problem with that knee. So it's a pre-existing condition void clause. I'm sure the Tigs are taking out general disability insurance on the contract. That covers the first 3 yrs. If Maggs has not matter a difference in W/L for the Tigs in that time do you really think he'll remain a Tig? As long as he puts up 30/300/100 like numbers each yr the Tigs will be able to trade him & the contract. Illich was a fool for bidding against himself. I think we all agree with that. But in the end the signing is likely to help Det more than hurt them. He'll remain a Tig for as long as Illich wants to watch him play.

Sports athletes can even purchase disability insurance on projected future earnings! 2003: McGhee took out a 2.5M DL insur policy with Loyd's of London before the Fiesta Bowl game. It cost him far less than 10K per 1M avg rate because it was only insuring him for about 4mo. From the Fiesta bowl to the NFL draft.

You are both crazy. I have now read two different links that place the cost of disability insurance for college & pro football athletes at 3.5K - 14K for every 1M. I now think that's what the 2000 link meant. I have seen the average quoted for football athletes as being 10K per 1M. Maggs has no history of chronic or persistent back or hip problems (unlike Belle & Gonzo did at the time of their signings). His risk is no greater than that of any other MLB player coming off of knee surgery. Even if you placed that cost at 100K per 1M (10 times the avg for an NFL player) it's still falls under 2M for a 12M contract. You're just plain out of your mind if you believe it costs 6M to provide disability insurance on a 12M contract for a period of 1yr.