JUGGERNAUT

No offense to the Hairston Jr lovefest but there are numbers that can't be ignored: 1999 Bal 193TPA 73TB 2000 Bal 212TPA 66TB 2001 Bal 602TPA 183TB 2002 Bal 479TPA 160TB 2003 Bal 259TPA 81TB 2004 Bal 334TPA 114TB The more he plays the worse his TPA/TB ratio becomes. Projected over a fullseason & he walks < 50 times a yr. Likewise he fell back to Earth in the 2nd 1/2: Pre All-Star 185AB, .324 .390 .422 .812 Post All-Star 102AB, .265 .356 .353 .709 Similar to his 3 yr avgs: Pre All-Star 517AB, .282 .357 .371 .728 Post All-Star 414AB, .275 .341 .394 .735

I forgot to mention IL play the same strategy should follow suit there as well. When weak teams have to play strong teams they should do so at home. The schedule should be flexible enough in both league & IL play so that the weaker teams have the weakest possible schedule w/out sacrificing the gate from the stronger teams. If the MLBPA could get on board with this then I think the majority of owners would approve. I'd even go so far as to say if it means trams like BOS & NY have less than 81 home games so be it. They are only 2 out of 30 teams. They get 2 no votes.

There is some merit in what he's saying but he's not saying it right. MLB would benefit greatly if it took a page out of the NFL's sched formula. Next yr's schedule is based on your W total from previous years. Weaker teams get weaker schedules. x-Anaheim 92 San Francisco 91 Oakland 91 Chicago Cubs 89 Texas 89 San Diego 87 Philadelphia 86 Florida 83 Chicago Sox 83 Cleveland 80 Baltimore 78 Cincinnati 76 Pittsburgh 72 Detroit 72 NY Mets 71 Tampa Bay 70 Colorado 68 Milwaukee 67 Toronto 67 Montreal 67 Seattle 63 Kansas City 58 Arizona 51 With a 162 gm schedule you have to be creative. Weak teams need NY & BOS to help at the gate. So you manipulate the home & away games between the strong & the weak. KC had 6 vs NY, 6 vs BOS, 19 vs MIN, 7 vs ANA, 9 vs OAK, & 9 vs TEX in 04. Those were split mostly even betw H & R. In 05 they should have home field adv against all those teams. Likewise the 9 gm series should be against the weaker teams. This is an idea the MLBPA should strongly consider in the 07 CBA. The best way to provide revenue sharing is to shift the gate to the weaker teams. If that means some teams don't play others so be it. KC will reap much more revenue if it can play 12 gms vs NY & BOS at home.

Marky B vs CC : Stat battle! MB vs CLE: Blake 286A, 824OPS Hafner 250A, 650OPS Crisp 333A, 917OPS Belliard 300A, 1117OPS CC vs SOX: Rowand 267A, 733OPS Uribe 263A, 789OPS Dye 308A, 1214OPS Thomas 300A, 1263OPS Gload 667A, 1333OPS Everyone else on either team hit below 250 with a < 700 OPS. Few ab's for some, a peak of 30 for others. But it's something to go on. My heart went with the Sox on this poll. My mind says we can't do any worse than '04 vs him. Everett had a 235A vs him, & Lee had a 233A.

The A's in the years you mentioned had top 5 #1's in the first 3 slots in the rotation. That was the best rotation in the game. Much better than a 5* rotation. I would agree if you have the best rotation in the game you can win a division with a top 10-15 offense. But you can't win a World Series. Not in the modern game.

Around the Mil: Brewers are getting no where with Sheets & Spivey. They have a few wks left to avoid arbitration. The same can be said for the Twins & Santana. On the table is a 70M/5yr deal with the Tigs provided Maggs can play. The entire contract is voidable if the bone-marrow edema in Ordoñez's left knee persists. This has peaked the Mets interest. They are considering offering a 30-70M/5yr contract. A 30M non-voidable base with incentives that could push it to 70M/5yr. This is what has prompted BorASS to now seek a 7 yr deal from the Tigs. All this for a guy who has yet to prove he can still play. Cameron prefers to be a CF. That's what's prompting trade talk & the strong possibility the Mets will pursue Ordonez. So at present there are only 3 offers out there: 70/5, 30/5, & 30/2 (BorASS offer to the Cub). The O's still want Vasquez but AZ seems content to open the season with him. The O's do fit the requirement of being an E coast team but Vazquez now prefers to stay in the NL. One interesting aspect of the O's desire is that they are not looking for cash from AZ in the deal. That could get it done.

Yzerman is not hopeful. NHL's latest offer: Max cap 42M, Min cap 32M - future caps linked to % of annual revenue like in the NFL - acceptance of the NHLPA offer of a 24% across the board reduction in player's salary - no indiv player cap (like the NBA has) - qualifying offers reduced from 110 to 75% of a player's salary There is a possibility this offer will be accepted because the 42M exceeds the avg annual revenue per team in '04. It certainly appears that the owners want a system similar to the NFL. There the cap is linked to 67% of league revenues. Since the NFL system has been in place the cap has grown some 30%. The answer of course is that parity & liquidity of free agent movement has led to the growth.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/team?categoryId=71590 Carl Everett: - dropped 15 pounds - power switch hitter - above avg speed = huge plus for the White Sox Iguchi: - should be the perfect No. 2 hitter - like Ichiro he's a solid contact hitter (finds the gaps) . = combo of Pods + Iggy is one of the fastest 1-2 punches in the MLs OF overhaul: - A minor drop in power in exchange for speed & exceptional defensive cohesiveness. - Pods is dedicated to being a true leadoff hitter - Rowand looks to be capable of 300A/30HR/30SB - A healthy Dye could be a solid run producer in the middle. - Timo Perez top RISP hitter for Sox in '04. - Ross Gload's a strong LH at bat TSN apparently likes our moves

I love democracy! http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/story/8127614?alcentral12805 We're #1! Amongst the voters! Nearly 33% voted the WhiteSox as having the best off-season. About 9% better than the Twins.

cbssportsline has the details of Sosa's contract: When it's all said & done, the Cub will have paid 62.5M of the 72M Sosa was due over the 4 yr deal. The O's are on the hook for 9.5M. $5M in '05 & a 4.5M buyout in '06. The O's have an 18M opt in '06 & a 19M one in '07. The moral of this story is that players rarely ever live up to expectations in these lengthy deals. At best Sosa's production was worth about 1/2 that.

The LA Times is reporting that the LAD did indeed win the bid process. Naki will most likely be offered a ml contract. If he doesn't make the LAD cut then he would still have the opp to go back to Japan. This rumor will likely remain on hold until after ST.

The demise of the 04 Sox was playing 10 games < 500 in Jul & Aug. The team tanked when Thomas went down. It didn't regain it's footing until late Aug & then surged again in Sep.

Running the rumor mil: Today's St Paul Pioneer Press backed Rios denial of purchasing steroids & the Twins having ever offered a 25/3 deal. Interestingly enough this comes on the heels of two columns written in the Miami Herald talking about Santana's fondness for the Marlins. In fact if you compared what he's said about the Twins of late to that of what he's said about the Marlins you would think he was a Marlin Your J Hendry now, so what do you do? Burnitz at 4-5M for 1 yr or Ordonez at 30M/2yr? That's the thinking now. BorASS is reluctant to have Maggs sign a Tiger deal worth betw 55-75M/5yr. The latest offer. Perhaps it's because of the protection clauses that could drop it down to less than 25M/5yr. So apparently if the Cub offer Maggs a 30M/2yr with an out clause after 1 yr BorASS will accept. The 06 FA crop is expected to be the weakest in recent years & with a monster year at Wrigley Maggs could set himself up to be the biggest FA bat in 06. Anybody see a pattern here? BorASS' decisions seem to be more about maximizing his commission at an increase risk to his clients than finding the best deal for his clients. The Wrigley deal is a far bigger risk to Maggs than the Tigger one. BorASS is just playing his hand. If Maggs gets hurt than the Tigs deal is about equal to the Wrigley one in value. So BorASS commission is the same in that scenario. If Maggs remains healthy BorASS expects him to sign a much better deal than the Tigs are offering. The only scenario where BorASS loses is if Maggs remains healthy but drops down to average Finally doesn't it make you sick how the Sosa affair as gone? He skips out on fan appreciation day, never apologizes to his teammates or the fans, & now he's the latest attraction in the AL. As soon as word hit he was all but on O, O's road tickets start selling big. Selig should have made that trade contingent on Sosa apologizing to the fans.

The other thing that pisses me off with these so called analysts is their total lack of respect for Garcia. Anybody remember back to last summer? Garcia was so hot the Boss even went as far as to call Olivo a sure-fire future all-star. Every team that made it into the post-season was hot on the trail for Garcia. Does Neyer factor in another 15 Garcia starts? No. He completely ignores him. This really pisses me off. Why didn't he just make a simple table? Garcia vs E-LO : big improvement El-D vs Schow : Health essentially the same, big improvement Contreras vs Jon : even Jon vs AAAA : big improvement 3/5ths improvement in rotation Hermason vs MJ : big improvement Vizcaino vs Diaz : big improvement 2/6ths improvement in the pen Dye vs Maggs : If you just pencil in 300/30/100 for Maggs you're a fool. There are more players that decline after major knee surgery than there are those who improve or maintain their career avgs. Dye is healthier than he has been in 3 yrs. If you're a betting man on who will produce more the odds are in Dye's favor. Lee vs Pods: This is the most noticeable decline but it is no worse than the Cub losing Alou. You can do a lot worse than losing your most productive hitter for the games best base runner. Uribe vs Val: Improvement Iguchi vs Harris: Improvement AJP vs Burke+Alomar: Improvement 3/9ths improvement in the lineup. If there are 20 teams with more improvement than that I sure would like to no who they are Seriously, the glass is not full. It's only 1/2 full. We are likely to start off '05 w/out Thomas on the DL. Thomas was a big part of the offense for the 1st 1/2 last year. In some ways that's a good thing. The Sox will have to fight hard to win w/out Thomas. If they fail to do that then Thomas return will likely help them compete but they will fall short. But if they succeed then Thomas will be like an acceleration kick & this team will be tailor made for the post-season.

On average there are usually 50 torch nights amongst a rotation. Starters numbers are always fascinating. A good rotation will produce betw 70-75 wins & 45-50 torch nights. That leaves only 37 bubble games. That's why no team can make it to the post-season w/out a solid bullpen. A bullpen needs to win 20-25 of the 37 to have a good shot. If your bullpen loses more than 15 gms kiss the post-season goodbye. Here's what Neyer should have asked: 1) Do the Sox have a rotation capable of winning 70-75 games? How do you answer this? You look at the number of starts they've had in the past 3 yrs where they have surrendered 3R or less. That usually equates to a win. Numbers wise the Sox did not have that kind of rotation last year. They do this year. 2) Do the Sox have a bullpen capable of winning 20-25 games? They didn't last year but they did this year. 3) How much offense did they lose? Again about 2 doz runs & 2 doz rbi. There is still plenty of power, but now there is plenty of pressure to go along with it. We essentially bartered 2 doz R, 2 doz RBI for 70SB. It should be exciting. Can't wait for the open of ST.

I strongly disagree. Both Vizcaino & Hermanson have enough starts under their belt to be spot starters in the event El-D goes down. I do not see major downtime coming from Marky B, Freddy G, Jose, or Jon. If you don't want to go that route then you still have arms at AAA & AA who can step in & perform no worse than 04 (Cotts, Diaz, Grili, & Stew). As for the bats, this might be the most balanced lineup the Sox have had in KW's tenure as GM. The easiest out right now figures to be Crede & we all have seen the good Crede & bad Crede. That means higher pitch counts & more stress on most pitchers in the AL when facing the '05 Sox. Those are the intangibles that can & usually do equal more wins. The more pressure you can put on a team the more likely they are to crack.

I think you'll be $200 richer. Not because I think the Sox will win more than 89 games (Cub 04), but because I can't see how the Cub will win 89 games. Nomar is good for about 400 ab's at best. I don't care how good his physical was that's just reality with this guy. He will be down for a 1/3rd of the season. When I look at the R+RBI lost betw Alou, Sosa that is a much bigger slice than Maggs, Lee. Hairston & Burnitz do not equate to Dye+Pods as replacements. Hairston has yet to prove he can be an everyday player & Burnitz is a K-out waiting to happen. For one of the slowest teams in the majors that's not going to help the Cub manufacturer runs. It's a team that has been built on the big hit for the past 4 yrs. It's not re-invented itself this year. It's simply downsided from an 8 cylinder to a 6 cylinder. With a 90M+ payroll it amazes all MLB fans how it can go into the season with tryouts in the closer position. A 5* rotation can not win you a division. You must have an offense that ranks in the top 5 in run production. I don't see that from the Cub. I'm picking the Cub to finish 3rd .. again.

Put me down for yes. They got it done with Pudge (which was a surprise to most) & I think they'll get it done here. They'll pony up the 5th year as a player-team option based on ab's the previous 4 yrs. From a Sox fan's perspective there's more sweet than sour. The sour is we have to pitch against him. The sweet is he can help the Tigs beat our biggest 05 rivals (Cle, Min). Staying in the div means we can keep a close eye on his progress. There's no need to hate him. We knew from the moment he became a BorASS client he was a short-timer.

You're assuming he will lose in arbitration. I disagree. 6.8M for a 20 game winner is reasonable.

It's already been proven Neyer's an idiot. Since all this top 10 off-season crap is about looking good on paper the Sox are giving up about 2 dozen rbi & 2 dozen runs from the 04 team. That's all. They are shaving off about 6 dozen rbi & 6 dozen runs on the pitching & D side. It's an upgrade. It's likewise obvious he forgot all about the Dye signing. Which is amazing considering that the Sporting News considered that signing the biggest bargain this winter. They expect a big year out of Dye.

This trade only makes sense with more pcs. Weaver + Nakamuru + cash for Crede + Contreras. The cash is equal to what Nakamuru would cost the Sox. I can see where this rumor originated. The LA Times mentioned the Sox as one of the teams bidding for Nakamuru. He's projected to be no better than an average everyday player. He's expected to sign a minor league deal & then have to earn a spot on the roster. Money wise it would make sense for the Sox. They get out from Contreras 06 cost, deal away another BorASS client, & pick up Weaver & cash for about the same cost as Contra. Odd as this sounds Weaver has more experience than the mid-30 Contra. The Sox would not make this deal unless they thought Naku or someone else was ready to come in & play 3B w/out weaking the middle IF.

If I'm the Tigs I hold at 4. There is no other team any where near 44/4. They are simply bidding against themselves. With the O's getting Sosa, they drop out of Maggs. The Mets & the Cub have a lukewarm interest at best. Certainly nothing more than a 20M/2 deal. Maggs may be holding out for the Cub. But that's no reason for the Tigs to offer a 5th yr. The last player holding out for the Cub was Thome. The offer was so low he quickly signed with the Phils for 20M more.

If he's hitting below 250 on the road then why are we even having this conversation? Trade him.

I'll just kind of dump a post here & comment on all the rumors. 1) Santana rejecting a 25/3 yr deal. Big news for Sox. He's going to cost the Twins a min of 6.8M in 05 & probably 10M in 06. Do they trade him now? There would be plenty of teams lining up to get Santana. The lowest price would be a #1 + prospects. I say he won't be a Twin in 05. 2) Sosa deal. Are the Mets listening? Sosa + 12.5M to O's for Hairston, prospects. Sosa has agreed to work out a 2-yr extension w the O's to considerably reduce his 18M 06 cost. So the O's might get Sosa's services for 3 yrs for an avg cost < 10M. The Cub get a solid bench player who can play OF, & 2B plus some pawns. That's a real good deal for the O's. 3) BorASS is full of s***. He keeps spreading this rumor that the Tigs are offering 70/5 but that's no where near true. The Tigs have offered 44/4. Slightly more than they did Pudge. If you're wondering why the Tigs it's because they've been down this road before with Pudge. All most people heard in that signing was 40/4. What they didn't hear was the multitude of protections in the contract against Pudge's suspect knees. That's the same approach they are taking with Maggs. If either player goes down they owe less than 1/2 the value of that year. I too am surprised at the Cub when it comes to both these signings. There is no reason why the Cub can not outbid the Tigs & craft the same protections. Are they really so cheap as to where they aren't willing to spend the 3-4M a yr on these guys if they go down? As much as I hate the Cub, I can only imagine how strong that team would be with both Pudge & Maggs. Thank God it won't happen. 4) As it stands now, if the Cub lose out on Burnitz they are likely to trade with the Mets for Floyd. It that eventually happens w/out the Mets having to take Sosa then Manaya should be GM of the off-season. 5) Why would the LAD want Crede (26) when they have Nakumaru & Valentin slated for 3B? He's young. It's no surprise that Crede is a BorASS player. That drastically reduces any hope the Sox have of signing him long-term. As a 5 yr player he's close to being a UFA. So he's basically a rent a player. Weaver (28) is due $9.25 million in 2005 then an RFA. I believe he too is a BorASS player. The difference is that Weaver is on the far short end of the stick when it comes to a new contract. Yet is he an upgrade over Contreras or Garland? Weaver: v R: 1098ab, .259 .300 .376 .676 v L: 1175ab, .289 .351 .456 .807 Garland: v. R:986ab, .246 .305 .417 .722 v. L: 1294ab, .275 .351 .449 .800 Contreras: v R: 405ab, .240 .332 .432 .764 v L: 509ab, .238 .325 .381 .706 I don't see it. The 676 v RH is impressive but not when it comes w a higher avg, & nearly the same OBP as Garland. He's nearly identical to Garland vs LH. Obviously the guy with the most potential is Contreras. Those numbers suggest that few are getting good hits vs him but they are drawing free-passes. You would have to believe that with a more stable situation & maybe a hard-nosed catcher like AJP his walks are going to drop in 05. This trade only makes sense for the Sox if they are both getting cash to offset Weaver's pay increase & another trade is in the works to spin off Garland or Contreras.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/spli...27&type=batting http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/spli...08&type=batting HURT: 1309ab, 164r, 343h, 80db, 88hr, 246rbi, 277wh, 287k, 387O, 526S Kone: 1577ab, 130r, 433h, 71db, 86hr, 286rbi, 175wh, 229k, 344O, 483S It's no F'g contest. Despite 268 more ab's (1/2 a season) Frank leads him in HR's, DB's, & R's. Take a look at the w+hbp difference. The only dropoff in Frank's game from his glory years in the 90's are the K's. That's what's led to his avg consistently dropping below 300. Frank: 3.816 ab/h Kone: 3.642 ab/h Not a big deal. Where you see the biggest separation is the splits along type of pitcher: Grounball, Flyball types Koney: vs GB: 286ab, 327o, 388s; vs FB: 393ab, 340o, 529s; vs AVG: 898ab, 351o, 493s Frank: vs GB: 258ab, 366o, 395s; vs FB: 296 ab, 396o, 588s; vs AVG: 755ab, 391o, 547s Finesse, Power types Koney: vs FI: 239ab, 346o, 473s; vs PW:901ab, 339o, 473s;vs AVG: 437ab, 353o, 510s Frank: vs FI: 217ab, 394o, 604s; vs PW:786ab, 378o, 515s;vs AVG: 306ab, 407o, 500s Frank beats him in every split especially the ones which are most prevalent: avg GB/FB Power.