JUGGERNAUT

Why torment yourself like this? It didn't happen. Politics always plays a role in publicly funded stadiums & that's why the Cell is where it is. If it had been built in Addison the Sox would probably avg 30K a game easy. The area is populous & wealthy. But it didn't happen. Move on.

I agree let's defer the CLE pen debate until mid-season. You obviously feel a deep need to look at CLE as the glass 1/2 full & the SOX as the glass 1/2 empty. Maybe in regards to lady luck you're not wrong. But right now based on what they did in 04 & their health I will take the SOX 1-4 pen over CLE's. At mid-season we'll look at the $ stats: saves, wins, holds, & losses. Injuries are a part of the game so no exceptions. Byrd's health didn't hold up in 04. B 51 Byrd, Paul ATL R 114.1IP 3.94ERA 79K 8W 11.34MOB .749OPS A 30 Contreras, Jose CHW R 170.1IP 5.50ERA 150K 13W 13.63MOB .786OPS Contra's walked 30 in 70IP in 03, & 84 in 170IP in 04. Compare that to Mark's 51 in 245IP. Can Contra cut is walks in 1/2 in 05? If he does that he'll be worth the 6M. That's the challenge ahead for the SOX.

If you read the NY papers odds are it will be Cameron they trade for.

You need to have $ to sign Sheets long-term. But Milw should defer that decision. He can't go anywhere in 05 or 06 & at the very least they can offer him arbit in 07. Next year would be the better year to seek a trade if they can't sign him. Maggs is still on the radar for the Mets. AZ is trying to get Cameron. If that deal is worked out then the Mets will be be in hot pursuit of Maggs. The Cub has signed Burnitz to a 4.5M/1yr deal but I don't think we should rule out the possibility of Maggs playing LF for them. It looks like the Tigs are getting stood up again. No word on the O's extending Sosa's contract but it's likely he will do that & the total cost to the O's will be around 30M/3.

Whatever. I'm so sick of this crap. The season can't start any sooner. If we remain healthier than Cle & Det there's no F'g way we are going to lose 2nd place to them. I don't know if our pen will improve enough to wrestle the crown from Min but I do believe it's improved enough to stay ahead of the rest. I hope we bury the rest of the div like in 00. Then I'd love to see these analysts & bookies scrambling to find refuge in their spite & angst against the Sox. I think we can because not only is our staff better than 00 but it has greater potential. The 00 staff came down to earth in the 2nd 1/2. That won't happen in 05. These guys are too experienced. If our staff is the best in the 1st half it will be in the 2nd as well. Barring injury of course.

Sauerback has as much chance as regaining his old form as Marte does his dominance vs RH. Right now based on '04 you have to give the nod to Vizcaino over Sauernack. MM vs CP: Why is it that we can always expect SOX stars to digress but never other teams? MM has 59IP in his career. He has as much chance of repeating his '04 numbers as CP has in improving. Maybe a slight edge at best. At least you agree CLE has nothing to compare to Shingo & Marte. Now I just need you to accept that Vizcaino & Hermanson edge out CLE 3-4 guys. I'll accept their 5-6 are substantially better than the Sox. But here's the thing. What matters most in any pen are your front 4. The top 2 see the most work & the bottom 2 are the hold guys. Min has a decisive adv over the Sox in 1-4. That makes them the fav to win the div. But Cle is behind the Sox in 1-4. The 5-6 guys are used mostly for mop up duty. They don't factor nearly as much in the money stats (wins, saves, holds). Shingo's a crafty veteran closer & I'm sure he'll adjust to maintain his edge.

That does NOT constitute a better pen! Wins, Losses, Saves, & Holds. The Sox' pen will beat the Tribe's pen in all 4 categories. Nathan vs LH: 132AB, 212BA, 293O, 295S Nathan vs RH: 125AB, 160BA, 222O, 216S Shingo vs LH: 107AB, .215BA .294O .402S Shingo vs RH: 113AB, .150BA .226O .186S - best in the majors for a closer Very close, but I'm giving the nod to Shingo for these reasons: 1- Crede, Uribe, Iggy, Koney should prove to be better D than MIN IF. 2- Shingo's stronger vs RH. I don't buy into this belief that the more you see of Shingo the better you fare against him. The fact remains that having to face Shingo after Marte is a nightmare. The deliveries are so vast between the two. As for these what-if scenario's well I can pull one out as well. What-If Marte regains his dominance vs RH he showed in 03'? That's just as likely in my opinion as any of these Tribe driven what-if's: DM 03 vs RH: 146AB, .199BA, 306O, 288S If Marte does that in '05 then I would put the Sox ahead of Min in the 1-2 pen rank.

Wickman is w/out question the 4th best closer in the ALC. He is no where near as effective as Shingo. Likewise whoever gets the role as setup man for Cleveland is far behind Marte who is 2nd behind Rincon. 1-2 pen: Min, Sox, Det, Cle 3-4 pen: Min, Sox, Cle, Det 5-6 pen: Min, Cle, Sox, Det That does not equal Cle having a better pen.

Heart attack or not, if they get the job done that's all that matters. Shingo, Marte, & Hermanson are that much better the tribe's top 3 guys. That gives the SOX the edge. Vizcaino is strong vs LHers & Cotts is surprisingly strong vs RHers. Politte should be fine pitching the 7th most of the time. If you look at hit from a LH vs RH pov the Sox got the bases covered: ST vs RH: 113AB, .150BA .226O .186S - best in the majors for a closer ST vs LH: 107AB, .215BA .294O .402S - one of the best in the majors Wickman is not in the same league as Shingo. I would take Shingo over Nathan. DM vs RH: 160AB, .263BA, .341O, .444S - fair - not bad, not good - ok DM vs LH: 098AB, .143BA .259O .214S - best in the majors for a setup guy Cleveland has no one to compare with Marte. LV vs RH: 138AB, .290BA, 333O, 522S - bad LV vs LH: 129AB, .163BA, 245O, 341S - one of the best in the majors Cleveland has no one to compare with Vizcaino. DH vs RH: 265AB, .242BA .294O .358S - good but not great DH vs LH: 239AB, .285BA, .354O .498S - bad About as good as Wickman CP vs RH: 125AB, .208BA, .273O, .312S - one of the best CP vs LH: 74AB, .351BA, .442O, .595S - bad I challenge CLE or MIN to produce a guy stronger vs RH in the 5th pen spot. NC vs RH: 143AB, 231BA, 329O, 399S - good NC vs LH: 104AB, 269BA, 342O, 519S - bad Summing it up: Best closer in ALC: Shingo Takatsu Among the best vs RH: Politte, Shingo Among the best vs LH: Marte, Vizcaino, Shingo Good vs RH: Hermanson, Cotts Cleveland is a far cry from that.

The Cotts vs Adkins thing for the final pen spot should work itself out in ST. They both had bad Sept so I think it's wide open. OZ probably is leaning towards Cotts because he's a LH. LH couldn't buy a hit vs Vizcaino in 04 (.163BA, .245OBP, .341S). LH couldn't buy one off Marte either (.143BA, .259OBP, .214S). So there isn't a great need for a LH like Cotts but I know OZ likes balance. Surprisingly Cotts is more effective vs RH than Adkins. NC vs RH 143AB 14RBI .231BA .329O .399S JA vs RH 139AB 21RBI .288BA .327O .446S That really helps Cotts cause because he's more effective vs RH's than Vizcaino. Maybe most of his control problems are against LHers.

You have to keep in mind that Everett will be a bench player when Thomas returns. With 4 new everday position players in 05, the SOX need a 5 man bench. Gload, Timo, Davis - sure things. If Davis were to fail miserably or go down then Burke would take his spot. That leaves 2 open spots. One of which Everett will take when Thomas returns. Start of the season: Harris, Ozuna (or the other SS guy) Thomas returns: Everett, & one of the above 2 is sent down/cut.

Be rest assured the SOX will not be the only team looking at Sheets. Just about every club with some $ to spend will be. All of the SOX starters are signed to reasonable contracts so the SOX should have the advantage there. But don't be surprised if it takes Mark or Freddy to land Sheets. Milw will not likely trade him w/out getting at least a #2 in return. The only exception I could see to that is if 1 of Hernandez, Contreras, or Garland is having a great 1/2 half. That might be enough to build a trade around w prospects. That would be sweet.

You can deny it if you want, but when you look at his WHIP for both half's & his ERA what other conclusion can you drawn?

I disagree. I don't think we had the better team on paper. Sure we had a better lineup , but until this year are rotation as been weaker than their's. So the advantage there cancels out. They had one of the best pens in the league 4 yrs straight now & we've had an average pen at best. On paper that would give the Twins the edge. This year we have a better rotation, & about as good a lineup & a better than average pen. But their pen dominance still gives them the nod on paper. Wrt the Tribe, SanS is taking a glass 1/2 full look at their pen. They are looking at some solid #'s some of the guys had in the 2nd half. We're talking opp hitting < 220 against them. These guys are too green to look at it that way. I just don't buy into the belief they are going to do that in the first 1/2 of 05. Is Percival worth dropping the Sox down to 4th? No way.

That's an unfair comparison. Cotts had a whacked out start. We should really compare their relief stats ONLY! NC RP 5.29ERA, 4-3, 63IP, 11HR, 29W, 57K, 237BAv JA RP 4.65ERA, 2-3, 62IP, 13HR, 20W, 44K, 305BAv Adkins has a better era because he was lucky in the first 1/2. It all went to pot for him in the 2nd.

Your pen is not good enough. Wickm .261BAv 1.42WHIP 3.70era Riske .240BAv 1.42WHIP 3.72era Benta .268 1.34 3.92 Miller .216 1.17 3.09 Barto .275 1.71 4.66 Howry .228 1.15 2.74 Sauer .240 1.52 3.71 I would say the tribe's chances of being #1 are equal to that of the Twins losing 2 of their 4 J's (J Nathan, J Rincon, J Romero, & J Crain).

Adkins was lucky in the 1st half. Got out of some jams. NC 7.42K/9 1.45WHIP 5.64ERA JA 6.33K/9 1.63WHIP 3.33ERA - very lucky. Look at his WHIP! NC 8.49K/9 1.34WHIP 5.66ERA JA 6.43K/9 1.46WHIP 5.66ERA - his luck caught up with him.

How can you say that? Opponents hit 313 vs Adkins in the 2nd half!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! They only hit 252 vs Cotts. If it was close like say 283 vs 252 I would give Adkins the nod, but 313? That's a recipe for losing.

I've got to go with the Twins as well. I hope & pray the SOX win the div, but the pen comparison is to vast to go against them. In the 2nd 1/2 of 04 no one hit better than .199 against Nathan, Ricon, Romero, & Crain. The Twins might have the best pen in the MLs. The 4 J's look unhitable. That leaves 2 spots for Guerrier, Belfour, & Mullholland/Mays (whomever wins the 5th spot) Guerrier is better than Politte. & Belfour is much better than Adkins. Opp hit 243 vs Matt G, & 276 vs Belfour. They hit a whopping 313 vs Adkins. Opp hit 252 vs Cotts. I motion that Cotts replace Adkins. Anyways, the Twins lineup with a healthy Hunter & Mauer looks on par with the Sox. The Sox have a slight edge in the rotation. Santana, Radke, Silva, Lohse is just as good as Buerhle, Garcia, Hernandez, & Contreras. But the Twins still have a commanding edge in the pen.

Pen comparisons: SOX ST: 6-4 208BAvs DM: 6-5 252BAvs DH: 3-6 238BAvs LV: 4-4 252BAvs CP: 0-3 288BAvs NC: 4-4 252BAvs JA: 2-3 313BAvs I prefer Cotts to Adkins. That 313 BAvs is scary. MIN: JN: 0-2 188 BAvs JR: 3-3 185 BAvs JCR: 3-3 199 BAvs JC: 3-0 179 BAvs GB 1-1 276 BAvs MG 0-0 243 BAvs TM: 4-6 331 BAvs Wow! Where does MIN find these guys? This thread includes Cleveland in the debate. http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...61entry574161

Now look at the Twins: PRE-AS-04: 9+: 12W =8: 5W, 1L =7: 6W, 1L =6: 8W, 4L =5: 3W, 1L =4: 9W,4L =3: 5W,6L =2: 1W, 10L =1: 1W, 8L =0: 4L POS-AS-04: 9+ 5W, 1L =8 8W =7 7W, 1L =6 6W, 3L =5 5W, 1L =4 8W, 3L =3 3W, 9L =2 1W, 7L =1 4L SOX 04 RPG < 8: 25W, 35L -10 RPG < 8: 22W, 38L -16 vs MIN 04 RPG < 8: 33W, 38L -5 RPG < 8: 30W, 28L +2 Did Kenny do enough to give the Sox the edge?

04 break down of games: 04 1ST HALF: RPG 9+: 18W, 2L RPG 8 : 2W, 1L RPG 7 : 3W, 2L RPG 6 : 7W, 1L RPG 5 : 2W, 1L RPG 4 : 9W, 7L RPG 3 : 3W, 1L RPG 2 : 1W, 9L RPG 1 : 0W, 10L RPG 0 : 0W, 4L RPG < 4: 4W, 24L RPG 4-5: 11W, 8L RPG 6-7: 10W, 3L 04 2ND HALF: RPG 9+: 12W, 2L RPG 8 : 3W, 1L RPG 7 : 6W, 1L RPG 6 : 4W, 1L RPG 5 : 8W, 3L RPG 4 : 1W, 7L RPG 3 : 3W, 5L RPG 2 : 13L RPG 1 : 4L RPG 0 : 4L RPG < 4: 3W, 26L RPG 4-5: 9W, 10L RPG 6-7: 10W, 2L Most telling statistic of the 04 team: RPG < 8: 25W, 35L RPG < 8: 22W, 38L If you can not play 500 ball in the games where you score < 8 runs you are not a good a baseball team. That clearly dictated the need to improve the rotation, the pen, & the overall speed & quickness of this team. KW did the best job he could.

Some more interesting numbers to contemplate for '05: EL Pre-All Star 4.77era 8W 4L .283BAvs vs FG Pre-All Star 3.45 6W 8L .240BAvs FG Pos-All Star 4.37 7W 3L .244BAvs We don't talk enough about FG. His BAvs rose only .004 when moving from Safeco to the Cell. This is a major upgrade at #2. JG Pre-All Star 4.41 7W 5L .255BAvs JG Pos-All Star 5.44 5W 6L .284BAvs vs OH Pre-All Star 3.60 1W 0L .263BAvs OH Pos-All Star 3.28 7W 2L .228BAvs A 228 BAvs when the NY season was on the line. Major upgrade at #3. SS Pre-All Star 4.71 5W 7L .276BAvs SS Pos-All Star 9.95 1W 2L .357BAvs vs JC Pre-All Star 5.64 6W 3L .252BAvs JC Pos-All Star 5.40 7W 6 .253BAvs Again I look at that BAvs & see a substantial upgrade at #4. NC Pre-All Star 5.64 1W 3 .241BAvs NC Pos-All Star 5.66 3W 1 .252BAvs vs JG Pre-All Star 4.41 7W 5L .255BAvs JG Pos-All Star 5.44 5W 6L .284BAvs I'm picking Cotts because he has the best numbers of all the 04 5th starters. His BAvs makes me believe that if OH was to go on the DL Cotts would become the 5th starter. Garland is a major improvement over the rest of the gang. In short, KW has substantially improved every spot in the rotation. Mark should benefit as well following the two G's. All 3 of them feature different stuff, different deliveries, & different location. An analyst not picking the Sox is a a fool. There is w/out a doubt a 70-75 win potential in that rotation. The best in the ALC. That means every other teams bullpen & lineup must be stronger than the Sox' to make up that difference. The Twins feature one of the best pens in the game so you can never count them out. But it's rare for a team to maintain that kind of pen dominance yr after yr.

I'll keep it short & simple: The Sox have built a team that more closely resembles the Twins. Improved rotation, bullpen, speed, quickness, & D. The talent on the Sox has much greater upside potential than the Twins. But the talent on the Sox also has less proven success than the Twins. A big part of that proven success came from Koskie & Guzman in the form of game saving plays & game winning hits. I'm going with the team with the best potential over the team with most proven success. The Indians have the 2nd best potential. Improved rotation, power, & bullpen but at a loss of speed, quickness, & D. If the bullpen can hold the leads Cleveland will win the division. There's no question in my mind about that. But I put greater stock in the Sox overall potential than Cleveland's bullpen. The Tigers improved their pen & their lineup but didn't do much with their rotation. That rotation still looks like 50-60 wins. The bullpen is not good enough to overcome that. No better than 4th. Maggs won't change that. Pavano might have.

And this coming after some favorable MLB press: http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb...s_cws&fext=.jsp http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb...s_cws&fext=.jsp