JUGGERNAUT

Maggs passed his physical & was cleared for major league baseball activity. Insurance companies don't go around asking people to jump rope. They deal with medical opinions I suggest you read this again: http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/stories.../18/story8.html An NFL player's disability insurance can cost $2,500 to $3,000 per $100,000 of salary insured each season, Lattinville said. Carriers typically cover 75 percent of a player's salary. Read the article. Even if premiums were to go up 500% it's still no where near the amounts your talking about. Unless of course you think insuring Maggs is a higher risk than insuring an NFL player

We are talking about Illich! Have you seen how much $ he's spent on his Redwings in recent years? He's the Steinbrenner of the NHL & eventually broke the league. What does a healthy Maggs mean to the Tigs? Is it worth gambling 6M? For a team with 6M to burn the answer is an easy yes.

The Sox had 34S last year. Min had 48S. I'd rather have the saves than the HR's. I will gladly exchange a +10S potential for a +20HR potential.

I'm looking at this completely different. Lee was gone. That was a given. I do not think that signing Maggs to a 12M arbit award means we don't sign Dye. I still think we sign Dye. The difference is with both Maggs & Dye, Lee is pkg'd in a trade for someone like Hudson arm rather than Pods, Vizc, & a PTBNL. The Tigers paid 6M for a trial period of Maggs. If he's on the DL more than 25 times due to his knee the contract is void as is the signing bonus. How can you call that dumb?

Wrt to Belle, here are the details: Albert Belie was put on the DL after two team doctors found him "totally disabled and unable to perform as a major league baseball player" due to a severe case of degenerative arthritis of the right hip, which caused him to miss all of the Orioles' spring training games. Baltimore owes Belle $13 million in each of the final three seasons of his $65 million, five-year contract. The insurance company will reimburse 70 percent of the $39 million to the team. Here's a good article that discusses the costs & issues related to sports player insurance. http://www.indystar.com/articles/1/218997-7491-191.html Now with respect to Maggs here is a good article to explain how disability insurance works in the majors: http://www.legalball.com/MLB-news.html Beginning in the 2002 off-season, disability policies were limited to 2 to 3 year increments, as opposed to the entire length of the contract. http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/stories.../18/story8.html An NFL player's disability insurance can cost $2,500 to $3,000 per $100,000 of salary insured each season, Lattinville said. Carriers typically cover 75 percent of a player's salary. Now certainly you can agree that an NFL player is a higher risk to insure than a MLB one? Even if you make the claim the cost has grown 500% since then that would still be 15K for every 100K for an NFL player. That's 150K for every 1M, & 1.5M for every 10M. That's why I say for a 1 yr deal on Maggs at 12M the Sox are probably looking at about a 2M insurance cost worst case. You have to keep in mind that the arbitration award is not given out until Feb 21st. Maggs has already been cleared for baseball activity. That would make him a far less risk to insure. The Sox do not have to purchase liability insurance until that date. In the event Maggs couldn't play the policy would cover 9M & the Sox would be on the hook for 4M plus the cost of the insurance. A total of 6M. I just want to add one more thing. A much higher risk, Gonzo had a clever agent in Moorad who actually purchased personal disability insurance for his client prior to FA negotiations. The policy was structured such that it elapsed on Feb 15th of that year but could be continued by a team signing Gonzo. With that policy in place Gonzo signed a 12M/2 yr deal & the cost of insurance was around 2M.

It's not arbitrary like that. It would have to be DL time assoc with a knee problem. A team doctor would have to state that his knee was less than 100% healthy. If he just sucks or he goes down for a wrist injury or something like that it doesn't count towards the clause.

More team stats: CL R/G, SV, H (Close & Late Runs/Gms, Saves, Holds) in 2004 090/108, 48, 48 Min 097/103, 35, 58 Det 113/100, 32, 55 Cle 075/094, 34, 57 SOX 094/086, 25, 48 Kcr Percival 33SV, 5 BS vs. L .218A .331O .396S vs. R .244A .278O .349S replaces Estaban Yan 7SV, 10BS, Walker 1SV, 6BS That's a +11 in the BS category right there. Now you add Maggs CL numbers to the mix: .335A, .422O, .527S So with Percival & Maggs they improve greatly in the Close & Late dept. For a team that was 2nd in the ALC in that dept this is a major improvement. Could be the most improved team in the ALC if both remain healthy.

I think the question needing to be asked is not whether Maggs is worth 15M but whether he's worth that much to the Detroit Tigers. Take a look at how this team compares to the ALC teams. Razor thin margins with the exception of their 2r/gm cushion vs CLE. Maggs & Percival can make a difference between many of those games being wins & losses. A healthy Maggs & Percival make Det a legitimate contender in 05.

What's done is done. Maggs is a Tig. For at 05 at least. How does this shape the ALC 05? Maggs has a 306A & 762OPS 3yr avg @ Comerica. The spacious OF will get him more hits & many RBI's but few HR's. Is Det as close as Maggs says? You would be surprised. Det vs Min 80R, 266A, 316O, 418S. Min vs Det 88R, 272A, 337O, 455S Det vs Min : -8R/19gm Det vs Sox 104R, 252A, 341O, 465S Sox vs Det 105R, 267A, 318O, 458S Det vs Sox : -1R/19gm Det vs Cle 136R, 288A, 363O, 507S Cle vs Det 98R, 284A, 370O, 451S Det vs Cle : +38R/19gm Det vs KCR 108R, 301A, 354O, 497S KCR vs Det 115R, 311A, 363O, 457S Det vs KCR: -7R/19gm It's no wonder there is optimism in the motor city now. With margins against their rivals being so slim the additions of Percival & Maggs can make the difference. If Maggs & Percival both remain healthy Detroits as much a contender as Cle. Especially given their dominance of the tribe. A 2R/gm cushion .. ouch!

There's something missing in the details that someone commented on in the details written in a Det paper. The 25 gm dl due to knee condition clause exists for every year of the contract after 05. The 05 bonus is really an 06 bonus. It receives it in Nov only if the Tigs decide to retain him. What it basically means is that Det has greatly lowered their risk due to this knee condition over the entire length of the contract. At the same time they have a full year to evaluate him. If they feel his knee his not up to snuff you can bet for sure they will sit him on that basis to escape the contract. They will have that control & that option in every year of the contract. That's a pretty clever clause & very clever contract. They risk only 6M to see if a near lock for 30/100/300 man can still play.

This would be better off in the MLB ALC prediction thread.

Two entirely different players with two entirely different conditions. It would not have cost the Sox 4M to insure a 12M contract for Maggs. It would have cost 2-3M. Albert had a history of re-occuring problems at the time Bal helped the Sox got out of Albert's contract. That history included dl time. Maggs does not have a history of re-occuring problems. His injuries would be classified as accident/collision related. If his medical evalution indicated the bone edema condition was gone he would be reasonably insurable. Maggs was never considered an injury prone player. Of course we're only debating the difference of 1M. You say it's stupid to lock up 15M for the best player in Chicago (that's what was written) & I say PR wise it's not. The Sox are a mid-rev team. They should be able to keep their stars through arbitration at least. Play it out. Maggs can't play. Between the cost of insurance & what they can be expected to pay the Sox are on the hook for 6M. No more than Det. Maggs can play. The Sox have a 300/30/100 star in RF that can be traded for more value than the two picks you would get in arbitration compensation. If the Sox choose not to trade him in 05 they can still offer him arbit in 06 as a Type A player & get two picks for him.

The 25 gm clause applies to each year of the contract. So if they choose not to void it in 06 & he goes down they can still void it for 07. That's a smart move. Illich basically secured Maggs for a full season at 6M to fully evaluate his condition. Who controls whether Maggs plays? The Tigs. The clause is not open for debate. The Tigs can sit him any time they want if they feel the knee is not up to snuff. They control their own fate. When you consider signing bonuses for draft choices these days that's not unreasonable at all. The Tigs were prepared to go to battle in 05 w/out Maggs so the need for him to play is not great. He's an upgrade over what they were going with. Illich is a fool for caving to BorASS bluffs & up'g it to a 7 yr deal. He was bidding against himself. But again why should Illich care as long as the league is plush with stupid owners who won't hesitate to trade for Maggs if he puts up a good year? Just look at how Hicks got out of the A-Rod deal. Who really believes that Beltran, Beltre, Delgado are going to play out the length of their entire contracts with the team that signed them. It's a joke. The owners preach fiscal responsibility but rarely practice it. The fact remains that prior to this knee condition Maggs was a lock for 30/100/300 every year he played. Det has little risk with this contract & that condition. The likelihood of it hurting them in the future is small. As long as Maggs continues to put up 30/100/300 like numbers each year Det will have more than enough suitors to dump the contract on. I can't see how you can call Illich dumb for this move.

That makes even less sense then Maggs quote. We'll we ever get the truth? If KW is saying the Sox were still prepared to offer the 58/5 cash deal after the bone edema condition was discovered then why didn't the Sox at least offer arbitration? Think about that. KW is saying the Sox were willing to risk 58/5 on Maggs but not one year of arbitration? Does that make sense to you? If he had offered arbitration the Sox at least would be getting a couple of picks from Det. High value picks because Det has drafted high of late. I'm tending to believe Maggs here because it just makes no sense for the Sox not to offer arbitration based on what KW is saying here.

We are talking a 12M contract with respect to Sox. I factored in 2-3M which is between 20-25%. Maggs injury falls in a gray area category. He's been operated on & given a clean bill of health with respect to the tears. As for the bone edema that's a condition that is determined by a medical evaluation. Either it still exists or it doesn't. If it doesn't that can't be used to rule out insurance. As for Det there is no reason for them to insure any portion of the contract beyond the 1st yr. The contract is voidable at any time after the first year if Maggs can't play. So Det is in the same boat as far as insuring the first 12M goes.

I've changed my mind. I'll probably just shake my head. Regardless of who boo's around me. Putting this whole thing in perspective when I read the Maggs quote in the couch article about him waiting & hoping for the Sox to offer arbitration how can I fault this guy? How can I call him greedy? You need to consider what that quote means. Coming off a bad year arbitration means he's willing to play for the Sox at a 20-25% reduction in pay over last yr's salary. It's decided How can you call that greedy? Now if you choose to believe he's lying & he never intended to accept arbitration with the Sox then go ahead & call him greedy & boo him if you must but Maggs has never said or done anything in the past that would make us believe he was lying now.

The Sox would not have to risk 12M. On a contract that small they could easily take out insurance against it. The insurance probably drives the cost up to 14-15M but if Maggs can't play than the Sox only lose about 1/3rd of that. I'm sure Det has done just that for the first yr. Maggs was considered by many to be the best MLB player in Chicago. It's there in print. Do you risk 4-5M on his word that he'll be ready to play? I think so. I think most teams would. IMHO, here's what KW should have done: In Dec announce to the press they are prepared to offer Maggs arbitration contingent upon being able to insure against the risk he can not play. That takes all of the personal stuff out of the equation. That puts the ball squarely in Maggs hands as the Sox have clearly expressed a desire & willingness to take some risk to have him back. Now if Maggs or Boras ignore that request (which means essentially an evaluation by an insurance company) then clearly he is not interesting in playing for the Sox under an arbitration. Nothing Couch writes in Feb would change that. Sometimes you can use the media to your advantage. I don't hate KW. I actually like most of the moves he made this off-season. But I can't let my Sox bias get in the way of evaluating him vs other GM's. Why isn't Tim Hudson a member of the White Sox right now? When you look at what he was traded for I can not excuse KW for not getting this done. Hendry should be equally ashamed. Hudson has proven to be far more durable & effective than any pitcher the Cub currently has (with respect to age). All we ever hear about is how great the farm system is for both these clubs & yet it seems the Braves are always the one to get the star marquee players. So either Chicago's farm systems aren't so great or the GM's aren't so great. You pick. Other mid revenue teams like CLE offer arbitration to their stars they can't hope to sign long term. Sometimes the star accepts. They are willing to boost the payroll to do that. Why do that do it? For the fans.

I don't blame the Twins. If Santana continues to perform at an 11-12M/yr level then there's no way the Twins will be able to match the top 6 $ spenders (NY(2), Bos, LOS, Bal, Ana). If the Twins offer 4 yrs, some other team will offer 5/6. They are better off making use of the arbitration yrs.

Let's put aside all of the bias & try to think of this objectively. From the Sun-Times Couch article: Maggs: "I'm not happy I have to leave Chicago. I was hoping the White Sox would offer me arbitration. But they never called.'' If this is true, then I have to say KW dropped the ball. How can you believe otherwise? If Maggs had expressed a desire to play for the Sox for 1 more year via arbitration KW was a fool for not offering it. Did he never even bother to call Maggs or for that matter Couch to get a feel on this? I am not a Maggs supporter. I do not feel he produced enough to justify 23M/2yr & I do not believe he was overpaid when he made 6M. I'm quite certain that taking him through arbitration each yr would have been a lower cost to the Sox & would have made him ineligible for FA in 05. But I do believe he produced enough to where if he really wanted to play another yr for the Sox then KW should have felt obligated to do everything in his power to make that happen. I'm sure this isn't the end of this. There are two Chicago teams that have egg on their face right now. The Sox are one & the Cub are the other. That article rips the Cub just as much as it does the Sox. It essentially spells out that Maggs was willing to play another yr for the Sox or 2 yrs for the Cub. This doesn't speak well of either organization. It paints them as being cold & impersonal & not even willing to talk. Sox fans are waking up to the fact that they lost Maggs for the 05 season because the team didn't want to spend 12-13M to keep him. That's tough realization to swallow.

Correct. Maggs 3 yr deal for 30M voided his remaining years of type ? arbitration. You only get compensation for Type A arbitration if you offer it. That's why Maggs comments sting a little. He's essentially saying that had the Sox offered him arbitration he would have accepted it. That removes the claim that it would have taken a 105/7 deal to retain Maggs in 05. What makes this all the worst for Sox fans is now it looks like KW would have been better off taking Maggs through arbitration. It certainly would have cost them less than 30M/3yr & I think under those circumstances because it's based on plate appearances for yrs of service Maggs would not have been a FA in 05. I may be wrong about that though. If KW & Sox fans are to learn anything from this it's that you should never over spend to avoid arbitration. Ever.

If it makes you feel better: 04 NL med 93.5 SB, AL med = 83 SB 11% diff The median is where most teams fall under. A better measure than avg. 04 NLC med = 89 SB, ALC med = 84 SB 5% diff Are you arguing that he's most likely to have more than 60 SB?

Whoa! Who brought Thomas into this? You're cracked out of your skull. For what Thomas has produced over his many years with the Sox & for what he's been compensated during that time he's been one of the best bargains in baseball. You can't compare Maggs to Thomas in that respect at all. Thomas never trashed the Sox. He's always been to smart for that. He trashed KW. He has always spoken very highly of the Sox & JR. When you consider that KW wanted to trade him every yr he's been GM you can't blame Thomas for thinking the way he does about him. In comparison I never heard KW talk about trading Maggs or use words that were anything close to disrespectful. It's two entirely different scenarios. Plus the final word between all 3: Maggs, Mark, & Frank is that Frank re-up'd when he had a chance to make more $, Mark re-up'd & Maggs said sayonara. That says more about the 3 players & their love & loyalty to the Sox than any newspaper quote. The bottom line is that if Maggs wanted to remain with the Sox bad enough he could have found a way to make that happen. I will not miss Maggs. I really didn't like him much for the 23M/2yr. I liked him a lot more before that. I will really miss Carlos. It's just starting to sink in. I don't know why it didn't before. But all this talk about being there & in the crowd now reminds me I won't see Carlos there any more. ( I think I'll be going to more Brewer games than ever before. Maybe I'll take a trip up there for that final ST series.

I totaled the numbers & the AL is a LOT stingier than the NL. If you believe his 70 SB was reflective of a league which gave away 1405 SB then you'd have to accept that a league giving up only 1127 SB is going to net Pods about 58 SB max. Another way of looking at this. O4 SB leaders: AL Crawford 59, Ichiro 36 NL Pods 70, Pierre 45 84%, 80% It's uncanny how those numbers work out. AL/NL = 84%, Crawford/Pods = 84%.

More importantly when the Tigers come to town I'll be targeting the seats behind the Tig's pen. Normally I try for the ones behind the Sox pen. Then I can heckle Maggs throughout the game. I do that to the players I want to win against the most. I will really miss Carlos in LF. He was a nice guy.

Dye, Hermanson, Podsednik, Vizcaino, Hernandez, Peirzynski, Iguchi > Lee, Percival, Ordonez Don't forget El Cabello.