JUGGERNAUT

W + HBP amongst Sox SP: MarB 59 FP, 245IP FreG 71 FP, 210IP JonG 80 FP, 217IP OrlH 41 FP, 84IP (102 FP, 209IP) JosC 92 FP, 170IP (115 FP, 212IP) It's going to be hard to limit Duque's PC if he's walking or beaning that many. That should give you a much better appreciation of Garland. So how does Duque do it? K's. K's amongst Sox SP: OrlH 84K, 84IP FreG 184K, 210IP JosC 150K, 170IP MarB 165K, 245IP JonG 113K, 217IP Combining the two : K-FP FreG 113, 210IP MarB 106, 245IP OrlH 43 (107, 210IP) JosC 48 (85, 202IP) JonG 33, 217IP That's why Garland is a #5. Freddy, Mark, & Duque are close to even. But there is a wide separation between them & Contreras & even wider between Contreras & Garland. Jon can not give out that many FP when he has so few K's.

You can tell by the typos it's pretty fast I wasn't fair to Jon-Jon. I need to look at Herm's SP #'s only. We all know it's lot tougher facing guys a 2nd or 3rd time in a night than just once Best I can get for now ... Herm SP 04 4.59ERA 104IP, .271A 13HR 38FP 74(20)K - () vs 9th in order JonG SP 04 4.89ERA 217IP, .269A 34HR 80FP 113(13)K - () vs 9th in order ERA: AL vs NL. Adv Jon. HR: 34 AL vs 26 NL. Even. Cell #1 HR park, SBC #22. BA: AL vs NL. Adv Jon. FP: AL vs NL. Adv Jon. (Free Passes : W + HBP) K: 100 AL vs 108 NL. Adv Jon. Removed K's vs 9th to negate pitcher effect. As a starter Jon has the advantage in every category vs Herm. The analysts don't know what they are talking about.

There's a big difference. They have 2 more arbit yrs with him. It's been said all a long that he's looking for a Halladay contract because of the Cy Young comparison. That was 42/4 & the Twins are up to 40/4 so I think they'll get it done. It's bad news for the Sox but then we're aiming for a WS & not just the div. To be the best you need to beat the best. Facing Santa yr after yr will make us a better & tougher team. At least that's the theory

I can tell you where this pro-Contreras & pro-Herm, anti-Jon stuff is coming from. Jon vs L: 262A .334O .439S .773 49WHBP Jon vs R: 277A .329O .473S .801 31WHBP Jon was hit pretty good by both last year. 217 IP Herm vs L: 285A .354O .498S .852 28WHBP Herm vs R: 242A .294O .358S .653 21WHBP Herm was pretty strong vs RH. The ALC is predominantly RH. 131 IP Contreras vs L: 251A .337O .415S .752 48WHBP Contreras vs R: 254A .348O .481S .829 44WHBP 170 IP If you ignore the WHBP & IP, ERA gives the nod to Herm & BA gives the nod to Contreras. But when you add WHBP & IP Contreras has the worst WHBP/IP ratio from both sides of the 3. It's not hard to keep the BA vs down to 254 if you are giving out free passes. I don't think most analysts are thinking that way. If you project Herm to 217 IP his WHBP is close to Jon's for both sides. Do the same for Contreras & he's over 50 on both side. :puke Still no matter how you look at it Herm's 653 OPS vs RH looks pretty impressive amongst the 3. No worse than Garland in WHBP.

QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Feb 10, 2005 -> 12:00 AM) There's at least a 27.7% chance of a score when one of Pods, Aaron, or Dye/Thomas 2B. There's at least a 27.2% chance of a score when one of Everett/Dye, Uribe, or Iggy 2B. * You're probably being sarcastic but in case you are sincere I'm just applying Koney's & AJ's batting average. Only a hit or a major error will score a run for 2B. I probably should have said in general to avoid the LH vs RH debate on this.

QUOTE(JUGGERNAUT @ Feb 10, 2005 -> 12:17 AM) If you assume they'll be healthy most of the season then it's best to use their healthy yrs. vs LHP 2004 Thomas 050AB .200 .420 .420 .840 2003 Thomas 149AB .315 .446 .732 1.177 2004 Everett 52AB .231 .293 .288 .582 2003 Everett 64AB .266 .319 .406 .725 Timo is on the team for one reason: he led the team in RISP in 04. None On 171AB .205A .253O .281S .534 Runs On 122AB .303A .331O .418S .749 Scor Pos 68AB .397A .419O .500S .919 As for Wille vs LHP you're 100% right. You have to go all the way back to AAA to find some decent numbers for him. Yes it would but I guess you make do with what you've got. I envision Timo being used in a PH RISP role or a late inning defensive replacement. Take a look at his 3 yr avg: None On 646AB .246 .289 .359 .648 Runs On 437AB .314 .338 .428 .766 ScorPos 232AB .332 .359 .466 .825 He's just weird. Reminds me of the milkman.

If you assume they'll be healthy most of the season then it's best to use their healthy yrs. vs LHP 2004 Thomas 050AB .200 .420 .420 .840 2003 Thomas 149AB .315 .446 .732 1.177 2004 Everett 52AB .231 .293 .288 .582 2003 Everett 64AB .266 .319 .406 .725 Timo is on the team for one reason: he led the team in RISP in 04. None On 171AB .205A .253O .281S .534 Runs On 122AB .303A .331O .418S .749 Scor Pos 68AB .397 A .419O .500S .919 As for Wille vs LHP you're 100% right. You have to go all the way back to AAA to find some decent numbers for him.

One more time ... 1. Scott Podsednik LF - good speed 2. Aaron Rowand CF - good speed 3. Dye/Thomas 4. Konerko (277A) 5. Everett/Dye 6. Juan Uribe SS - good speed 7. Tadahito Iguchi 2B - good speed 8. A.J. Pierznynski C (272A) 9. Joe Crede 3B I'm willing to risk starting Iggy at the 7th spot. We won't face CLE, MIN, or DET in ST but I think he'll do enough in ST to warrant the spot. I like the idea of a savy base runner hitting ahead of AJP because then his SB's will break up GIDP opps. I like Pods-Aaron-Dye/Thomas a lot because of their 2B+3B production. Pods 36, Aaron 40, Dye 33/Thomas 35. Koney(277A) 21, Everett 30/Dye 33, Uribe 37, Iggy 36, AJP(272A) 30. Crede 26. There's at least a 27.7% chance of a score when one of Pods, Aaron, or Dye/Thomas 2B. There's at least a 27.2% chance of a score when one of Everett/Dye, Uribe, or Iggy 2B. That's what I would call balance.

In a traditional lineup you put the guy with the best average at 3 & the guy with the most HR at 4. Koney has the adv in both but his HR's greatly distinquish him from the other 2. I agree he's better suited for 4th. I have 3 lineups depending on how good Iggy looks in ST: Worst case: 1. Scott Podsednik LF 2. Aaron Rowand CF 3. Dye/Thomas RF/DH 4. Konerko 5. Everett/Dye DH/RF 6. Juan Uribe SS 7. A.J. Pierznynski C 8. Joe Crede 3B 9. Tadahito Iguchi 2B Better case: 1. Scott Podsednik LF 2. Aaron Rowand CF 3. Dye/Thomas RF/DH 4. Konerko 5. Everett/Dye DH/RF 6. Juan Uribe SS 7. Tadahito Iguchi 2B 8. A.J. Pierznynski C 9. Joe Crede 3B Best case: 1. Scott Podsednik LF 2. Tadahito Iguchi 2B 3. Rowand/Thomas RF/DH 4. Konerko 5. Dye/Rowand RF/CF 6. Everett/Dye/Rowand DH/RF 7. Juan Uribe SS 8. A.J. Pierznynski C 9. Joe Crede 3B Rowand had 24 HR in 04. More than Dye. Typically you stress HR over speed. When Thomas returns if Rowand is outperforming Dye he should be #5 otherwise #6.

vs LH -Harris 72AB .181A .224O .264S +IggyT 116AB .284A .331O .422S 04 vs RH -Harris 337AB .279A .366O .335S +IggyT 447AB .348A 412O 586S 04 Even with a 30 pt drop it's still a major upgrade over Harris in both

Apr 226A, May 283A Jun-Aug 350A, Sep-Oct 271A : Quite a summer! Career #'s: ARow .342O .475S .290A vs JeDye .334O .463S .272A Aaron has 22SB in 400+ gms & Dye has 23SB in 1000+ gms. I think you have to bat Aaron ahead of Dye.

I'm hoping for this: 1. Scott Podsednik LF 2. Aaron Rowand CF DL/3. Thomas 3/4. Paul Konerko 1B 4/5. Jermaine Dye RF 5/B. Carl Everett DH 6. Juan Uribe SS 7. Tadahito Iguchi 2B 8. A.J. Pierznynski C 9. Joe Crede 3B I think 1,2,6,7 is where you always try to concentrate your speed. If Iggy proves himself as #2 in ST, I'd swap him for Rowand & then swap Rowand & Uribe. If Dye proves himself as a #3 in ST then I'll swap him & Konerko but I'd like to keep Thomas at #3 since he's always had his best #'s in that spot.

For what it's worth: cbssportsline.com lineup 1. Scott Podsednik LF 2. Aaron Rowand CF 3. Paul Konerko 1B 4. Jermaine Dye RF 5. Carl Everett DH 6. Juan Uribe SS 7. A.J. Pierznynski C 8. Joe Crede 3B 9. Tadahito Iguchi 2B I think Kaz has soured some analysts on MIF from Japan. He'll have a chance in ST to prove whether he should hit 2nd.

It's too early to tell. Cooper wants to make use of the off days to skip Duque starts & stretch his off days. Ozzie wants to make use of a strict 5 man rotation with no skipped starts. It's Ozzie's team so I think you can pencil Hernandez in at #3. As for #4 it's definitely Contreras. Oz is down on Garland. Some analysts think Herm can unseat him for the 5th spot. It's Garland's spot to lose for sure.

SOX 05 projection vs LH: http://baseball.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batt...Type=2&type=reg .261A .326O .463S .789OPS -/+: -Lee 156AB .308A .385O .551S .937OPS +Pod 147AB .224A .294O .354S .648OPS 04 +Pod 148AB .270A .333O .426S .759OPS 03 : major decline -Maggs 59AB .339A .371O .542S .913OPS +Dye 161AB .280A .376O .491S .866OPS : decline -Olivo 40AB .450A .477O .925S 1.402OPS +AJP 97AB .227A .224O .320S .544OPS : major decline -Val 136AB .191A .262O .404S .666OPS +Ure 178AB .264A .302O .551S .853OPS : major upgrade -Harris 72AB .181A .224O .264S .488OPS +Iggy 116AB .284A .331O .422S .753OPS : major upgrade DH's Wildcards: Everett & Thomas Thomas 050AB .200 .420 .420 .840 04 Thomas 149AB .315 .446 .732 1.177 03 Everett 52AB .231 .293 .288 .582 04 Everett 64AB .266 .319 .406 .725 03 : major upgrade - We can expect our DH to do much better vs LH in 05. Overall: slight upgrade vs LH

That's one remaining stat analysis I've not looked at. How this team matches up vs both LH & RH pitching vs the 04 team. I think KW's made major gains in that area.

Open stance. Nothing to hide.

You misunderstood strong vs both RH & LH for switch-hitter. His splits are posted in another thread somewhere. Where Harris sucks vs LH Iggy is pretty damn good. They both are about even vs RH. Considering the dominant LH pitching in the ALC (Santana, CC) I hope he comes through for us.

Wrt red faces if the character is not drawn angry looking it always means embarrassment. Otherwise it's anger. Nakedness does not mean gay. It means not shy. Very open & in some cases exhibitionist. The Kennedy toon is not about exposing himself to children. He's getting caught with his pants down. Probably meaning he's not as good as advertised.

Hermanson & not Diaz is the 6th starter. Some analysts have him challenging Garland this ST for the 5th spot. I haven't given up on Cotts yet. If we needed an emergency starter that is.

His brother Jeff is with the Nationals now. I'm not sure how he's going to take to this move. I'd still prefer him on the Sox over Adkins.

Then again, we might have higher expectations of Iggy than most. cbssportsline.com as this lineup in their depth charts. 1. Scott Podsednik LF 2. Aaron Rowand CF 3. Paul Konerko 1B 4. Jermaine Dye RF 5. Carl Everett DH 6. Juan Uribe SS 7. A.J. Pierznynski C 8. Joe Crede 3B 9. Tadahito Iguchi 2B Prove them ALL wrong Iggy!

After signing RH Carlos Silva to a 5.05M/2yr deal + mut 07 opt the Twins are rumored to have offered 40/4yr + 5th yr opt to Santana. Santana is rumored to be wanting a Halladay like contract of 42/4yr. Santana is seeking 6.8M & the Twins are offering 5M in arbit this year. Wow! That's a real nice deal for Silva. That might be enough to afford them the extra few million to get Santana signed. Bad news for Sox fans

Breaking down the ALC 05: R score: CLE, SOX, MIN, DET, KCR SP R vs: MIN, SOX, CLE, DET, KCR RP R vs: MIN, SOX, DET, CLE, KCR Plain & simple. No numbers. They are implied in the rankings.

Whoa! Those are lofty expectations. I'll be happy if he just keeps his L down to 10.