JUGGERNAUT

Quote me if you want. Pods will hit 280-290 on the road, & over 300 at home. That will put him in position to win another SB title & he will do it. All the naysayers don't look at his numbers enough. He hit a respectable 274 on the road last year & a dismal 213 at home. There is no way that will happen at the Cell. Even Crede posted a 266BA at home last year.

of Frank

04 Home 276BA, 344OBP, 491S, 46W-35L +11 04 Away 260BA, 321OBP, 424S, 37W-44L -7 Pods, Igs, Dye, AJP, Uribe vs Lee, Uribe, Maggs, Davis, Val : upgrade Home & Away. KW has done all he could with budget constraints to make the Sox road warriors. Improving the road numbers is a no-brainer.

I am encouraged by Pods 274BA on the road in 04. It's a decline from the 326A in 03, but still respectable. His big demise was at home where he dropped from a 302 to a 213. There's no way that will happen at the Cell. If he's capable of 274 on the road then he's capable of 300 at the Cell.

It's an odd report that exargerates some players weaknesses & some players strengths. He is a fan of Contreras so hope springs eternal when he mentions him. He is not a fan of Garland & so the sky's will darken is his forecast there. Neither case is likely. Both Contreras & Garland should improve simply because they will be pitching for the most part against less capable starters. In the same context he mentions little on the fact that the Cell became the #1 HR hitting park in 04 after the roof change. Instead he chooses to to believe that Uribe's year was a fluke & that Pods year in 03 was likely a fluke. So he's looking at the glass 1/2 empty wrt to those two. I think that's somewhat ignorant. The physics of the park have clearly changed to where not as much force is needed to lift the ball near the wall or out of the park. Every hit is a trajectory problem http://physics.about.com/cs/forstudents/a/170603_2.htm. Essentially the distance the ball will travel is a function of it's speed, angle, & counteracting forces (friction, gravity). The park plays a role in the frictional forces. If the air pressure along the flight of the ball changes from one of high pressure to low pressure the park will produce greater lift for the ball. This is likely what is happening more often at the Cell since the roof change. There are usually swirling winds at the park & the shape of the roof may be conducive to producing two waves of pressure. A high pressure wave near the ground & a low pressure wave in the stands. What all that means is that balls naturally travel further at the Cell. The same hit at the Comerica will not travel as far as it will at the Cell. When seeking new talent the Sox should be targeting higher average hitters over power or OBP ones. Sabremetrics is no substitute for BA at the Cell. In that respect the addition of AJP is a much greater gain than the author suggests. BA: 98-300, 99-273, 00-307, 01-289, 02-300, 03-312, 04-272 02-04 US Cellular 328. 02-04 Away 294 To suggest this is not a major upgrade is ridiculous. AJP's hits are more often than not going to carry much further at the Cell than they did in SF. The 2 wave pressure theory aids not just in HR's but likewise in DB's & duck snorts. A duck snort hit at the Cell likely is caught by an IF at Comerica. Make no mistake about it. AJP is a major upgrade. Uribe is a perfect example of the Cell effect: Home 315, Away 248 In Jun & Jul he slumped big time with 28 Away games. The other months all feature better than 300 average. His Away #'s were very close to his 250 career avg at Col. He finished the season strong at home so the odds are he's more likely to improve the home #'s in 05 as an everyday player. His road #'s will likely resemble his 250 average. I would definitely play the matchup game with him on the road & hope to have a backup ready. Comparing him to Valentin (217H, 214A) it's again ridiculous to view him as anything less than a major upgrade. Batting average matters the most at the Cell. Koney is another example of the Cell effect (317H, 239A) Crede the same thing (261H, 219A) - lot more duck snorts at home. Dye is too small a sample but we do have 417 at Wrigley & a 285 at Oak. I would be surpised if Dye does not hit better than 300 at the Cell. Summing it all up is that the talent on this team is there to where the Sox have a good chance at exceeding the 04 team in R at the Cell. It's on the road to where the Sox don't look very good & to where the new additions might help more than they hurt. Pods (255H, 295A) over his time in Mil. 04 (213H, 274A) Just about every player improves on his #'s at the Cell so I don't see Pods being any different. His road #'s are encouraging because that is where his speed will be most important. This team is going to struggle to score on the road. What is most impressive about Igs is that he put those numbers up at a place that is definitely a pitcher's park in a dome nonetheless. The pressur e is constant in a dome so there is no park effect. It's just the dimensions that matter. Igs is definitely going to benefit from the Cell & his dome numbers tell me he is going to help much more than hurt on the road. The combination of Pods+Igs+AJP represents an upgrade over Lee+Uribe+Davis. That means more to consistent scoring than individual play. Lee got it done both at home & on the road & will be sorely missed. That's why I wanted to keep him over Koney. But the net impact is that the Sox have upgraded the combined production. Likewise Uribe+Dye is an upgrade over Maggs+Val. I think everyone on the planet agrees the Sox have improved their pitching so it's just a question of the offense. Better balance is reflected by combined production. In that respect the Sox have upgraded. Not just the home production but also the road production which is probably the most important factor for the Sox in 05. I remain optimistic with the expectation of a division win in 05 until the team proves otherwise. The only thing I can see keeping the Sox from winning the division is the injury bug. If the talent is on the field this team will win.

I expect something in between: 2005- .274 AVG, 12 HR, 68 RBI, .359 OBP, 63 SB, 60 BB More importantly wrt to Pods is R: 2003 100R, 2004 85R When I read the latest preview that BJ blog site I said to myself what is he smoking? Pods purpose for any team is to score runs. Despite his lack of success with the bat in 04 he still only suffered a loss of 15R. Does that person really believe Pods is going to score only 75R? If he puts up better than 550 ABs I think 85R is the floor for him. Likewise wrt to his being a LH bat his splits matter: 03 vs L:148AB, 333OBP; vs R: 410AB, 395OBP 04 vs L:147AB, 294OBP; vs R: 493AB, 319OBP Lee produced around 100 R the past 2 yrs for the Sox. Good for top 30. Pods 85R was good for 75th, his 100R in 03 was good for 26th. It's ridiculous to believe a healthy Pods want be a top 50 run producer in 05. His floor is 95R & his ceiling is probably 110 (top 20).

It is a very good read but I would add a few more points: - The 1919 Chicago White Sox were not the only team to throw a WS. Mention the other years & teams that did it before & after the White Sox. - Historians believe that if the Sox had allowed the Reds to sweep the story is dead because the gamblers had strong connections to the press. The biggest $ was riding on a sweep & every Sox victory cost the mob millions. It's believed that because the Sox pushed it to 5-3 with the fix on that the mob decided to get back at them & leaked the scandal. This deserves some mention in your speech. - There is no evidence that OF Shoeless Joe, 3B Buck Weaver, & C ?? ever agreed to the fix. Judge Landis knew this. They were banned not under the pretension that they played to a fix but rather the reality they knew the fix was in & did nothing to alert the public. Now some would say that's justifiable but I do not. It's simply not realistic to expect a ball player to rat out a fix orchestrated by the Chicago mafia. These players had already put their lives at risk for not agreeing to the fix. Historians have reported that Eddie attempted to do just that after his first start. Both his own life & the life of his wife were threatened to the point were if he talks she dies. Again it's believed that judge Landis knew this. It would be nice from the perspective of a White Sox fan if you made some mention of it. I believe this fact more so than any other makes the lifetime ban unreasonable & unjustifiable. Baseball is a game after all. A form of entertainment. It's honor is not worth the death of another human being. Landis seemed to think it was. Shoeless Joe should be judged based on his numbers & his fandom as to whether he should be in the HOF. Not some cockamaimy BS by Landis conncocted to save the game. Finally I just want to say that when I first read about Comiskey's cheap ways (especially his denial of Eddie's 30th start) I lost all respect for that name. I was one happy White Sox fan when US Cellular bought the rights & helped to distance the Sox from Comiskey's legacy. In my opinion Comiskey was a scumbag & the Sox should have distanced themselves from that accursed name the day he sold the team.

Frank Thomas is not going to make the HOF because he's a massive man. He's going to make the HOF because in the 90's he was the most dangerous hitter in baseball. He's going to make the HOF because his career OPS is among the best the game has ever seen. He's going to make the HOF because in the 90's he was the toughest out in baseball & in this decade he is still proving to be a very tough out. Very little of that has to do with steriods or performance enhancing drugs. Frank has gotten the worst wrap for an expected HOFer I can think of. Yes he has b****ed about his contract at times. But lets not forget that when it's all said & done Frank will be near the top of price vs performance players since free agency came into being. In my opinion that justifies the times he has b****ed about the his contract. He's yet to sign a contract or choose a team over the Sox that suggests greed. Frank is an ideal role model for young athletes because he demonstrates the need for a baseball player to be both patient & aggressive at the same time. His doubles are just as impressive as his HR's & you don't need performance enhancing drugs to hit DB's. As good as Bonds' numbers are Frank might have put up similar numbers if he had played his career in a park tailored to him. Imagine the numbers Frank puts up playing for the Astros over his career & having close to the same # of AB's as Bonds. MLB needs Frank to step up to the limelight & be the poster child for the league.

You guys focus too much on position players. If you want to know why the Twins are 3 time champs in this decade you need to look no further than winnable starts by rotation. The Twins have been the luckiest in the division in terms of a healthy rotation. What were the odds that Rogers would have 30+ starts for them in 03? Without Rogers they don't win in 03. That's why the law of averages are in the Sox favor for getting the better luck out of a healthy rotation. If Hernandez gives the Sox in 05 what Rogers gave the Twins in 03 the Sox should win the division.

Having seen most analysts pick the Twins as the favs & the Tribe as the runner-up I ask Sox fans what needs to happen to our beloved Chi-Sox to win the division. Try to keep your expectations or hope at a minimum so we can keep it real. #1 - Hernandez gets 25+ starts. If that happens then the Sox will get 45+ wins from their front 3. Contreras & Garland are good for 25. The pen is good enough for 20+. I think the likelihood of Hernandez getting 25 starts is close to Milwood getting 15+ wins with the Tribe, Bonderman breaking out for the Tigs, & Mays getting 25+ starts for the Twins. All of these teams have an equal dependancy on that kind of luck as the Sox do with Hernandez. #2 - Pods+Igs combine for a 340+ OBP. In the land of Oz, the #2 spot is Igs to lose. If this happens the Sox will have a consistent offense. I think this is as likely to happen as any of the other teams in the ALC producing a combined 340+ OBP out of their top 2 spots. #3 - The Sox have at least 1 300+ hitter. Every division winner has had at least one.

This really does seem like a no-brainer. Pods seems dedicated to being a leadoff hitter this year. He's more likely to take a pitch he can hit for a single or a double cleanly then one he thinks he could go yard with. Likewise I'm hurrying good things with respect to his ability to bunt. It seems there are few pitchers & scenarios that can keep him from not running once he gets on. When you have a player whose SB's are mostly going to be determined by his OBP that's a pretty special weapon to have. I don't think the same can be said of any of the other choices.

WSCR has a much stronger signal. You can pick it up as far as STL. WMVP is no where near that strength. Assuming the strength is as good in other directions that would give the Sox radio coverage for most of the midwest (MI, IN, OH, WI, IA, IL, KY, TN, MO, & MN). MN is probably a stretch but I know people living near the border that say they can pick up WSCR. In terms of what's best for the Sox it's probably WSCR.

The Twins have been lucky for the most part in their rotation the past 4 yrs. Mays & Milton have had their troubles but they've had adequate replacements in Rogers & others. It's been exactly the opposite of the Sox. They are due for some bad luck health wise in their rotation.

There's a big difference between the US & China in world perception. In the global economy the world does not see the US. They see Microsoft, Haliburton, IBM, Gap, Disney, Nike, etc. The corporations are more visible then the nation. The world sees the US mostly in terms of it's military. Chinese troops are not spread across the globe. US ones are.

How many nations do business with China? How many want to? How many nations are being inundated with Chinese investment? How many want to be? I think that has more to do with the 48% rating. If you speak highly of a gangster he is more likely to do you less harm.

I remember reading somewhere that when Borchard first came to Charlotte the team was one of the best money makers in the ml's. A strong ST by Joe might help boost the Knights gate again. There are worse things the Sox can do then to keep Joe at Charlotte.

QUOTE: If Hernandez is able to stay healthy and provide quality starts to the White Sox, they could be able to overtake the Twins atop the AL Central. I think we all pretty much echo those sentiments. One thing I will mention that has not been mentioned is a comparison of winnable starts between the 04 & 05 rotations. It's a difference of night & day. A winnable start is considered 5ip/3r, 6ip/4r, 7ip/5r or better. It's nothing to write home to Mom about but it still gets the job done. A starter will not get a 7ip/5r night unless his team is in the hunt for the win. That's why it's still considered a winnable start. The best way to put it is that the 05 Sox team is better equipped to handle injuries to the rotation than the 04 one. You've heard a lot about the 5th spot in the rotation for the Sox. A combined record since 2001 of 20 more losses than wins. But that's only part of the story. The bigger story is the bad luck health wise the Sox have had in their rotation over those years. That bad luck has led to the Sox bumping Garland up to #3 & then using AAA/AAAA arms to fill out the rotation. That's were the losses really mount & this was again the story in 04. In 05 the Sox can shoulder a starter going down & still remain competitive with 4 starters capable of producing a winnable start night in & night out. Sure timely hitting, opportune base-running, & strong D play are essential to a winning ball club. But that doesn't mean much if you don't have the arms to keep the game close early on. The Sox have those arms in 05.

This is a no-brainer. You basically have Bonds making a case as to why MLB players need steroids & performance enhancers the other day to make it through the grueling season. Who better to give a counterpoint to that than Frank?

The offer is on the table. An investment group led by Bain Capital Partners and sports advisory firm Game Plan International made a bid to buy the NHL for $3.5 billion. The league had an estimated value of $4.9 billion prior to the cancellation of the season. Some say the value is between 1/2 & 1/3 lower than that now. NHL, Inc. would essentially end all issues of revenue sharing & salary caps. The value of NHL teams range from the Redwings (266M), to the Oilers (86M). With the gap being much smaller than say MLB it's certainly reasonable to suggest. Apparently Bettman had this option available all along as he has helped put together the initial meetings. Having read this it's hard not to view professional sports as a business first. Are there mergers & acquisitions of whole purchases of other leagues that far off? It's creative thinking but I prefer the franchises to the wall-mart approach.

Am I the only person who seems fixated on the introduction of "crystal methamphetamine" to AIDS carriers? It's bad enough we still have many people out there who don't finish their prescribed dosage of anti-biotics. When you don't finish the dosage (even if you feel good) you risk the possibility of the bug building up a tolerance to the ab & then being passed on to someone else via you. But use of illicit drugs with these viruses throws a complete unknown into the equation. How do they do clinical research on this? Dope up an AIDS stricken lab rat with crystal meth? Crytsal meth doesn't affect rats the same as humans. If this new strain was someone influenced by c-m then what's do say other illicit drugs like heroine can have similar effects? As I see it we have two choices: learn to live with these problems or institute state mandated drug & bug testing. As part of the license, insurances, & registration renewal process to continue to drive a car you would have to submit to a drug test. I don't think the damage resulting from the problems is at a level to where we need to do that yet. But it's certainly around the corner if things get worse. I believe even with out bug scares we're moving toward a GATTACA nation anyways. This will just speed that up.

I'm not sure which type. I imagine they were metabolic. Does Canseco make the distinction in his book? Can a player inject himself with metabolic steroids under a physicians approval? Are there any cases of physicians using anabolic steroids for cancer patients?

I think are optimism got the best of us. If we assume Hernandez, Dye, & Everett are going to have somewhere near their 3 yr avgs for playing time it's not easy to be so optimistic. Probably because of the publicity surrounding the trade all eyes are mostly on Pods. If he swims the Sox will be in good shape. If he sinks KW will never hear the last of that trade. i prefer to believe that moving to a hitter's park is going to help Pods like it did Uribe.

There's no way Frank is/was a roid eater. Unlike most of the other named roid eaters mentioned in the book, Frank was a sure thing. He was hitting towering HR's in the early 90's & he still is. The Sox should be marketing him this summer as The Natural.

No matter how we spin it positively or they spin it negatively it's still the same conclusion: the 2005 will sink or swim .. no treading water (2nd place). I admit as the days go by toward ST doubts are beginning to linger. Not so much with whether Dye, Everett, & Hernandez will produce but rather will they stay healthy enough to produce.

He's not really smiling but I love the signage