JUGGERNAUT

I'm not sold on Vizc but for 1.3M I can't complain. He should be better than both Politte & Adkins.

Other intangibles are his post season numbers. They are very good. His team won the Japan Series in 2002 with his game winning HR. His 2004 resembled his 2002 in terms of SB's: 2002 He had less than 20, then in 2003 over 40, then in 2004 less than 30. It appears he has suffered shoulder problems in 2002 & 2004 & that has a major effect on his ability to steal bases. For the most part cutting that threat in 1/2. Most recently: Thursday, October 7, 2004 at 07:20 JSTFUKUOKA The Daiei Hawks outslugged the Seibu Lions and maintained an early lead to win the opener in the second stage of the Pacific League playoffs 9-3 on Wednesday. Nagisa Arakaki (1-0) pitched seven strong innings in a duel against Takashi Ishii (0-1) and received home run support from Kenji Jojima, Tadahito Iguchi, Nobuhiko Matsunaka and Julio Zuleta, who all hit solo shots at Fukuoka Dome. (Japan Today, Japan) Finally this is a great link: https://www.japanesebaseball.com/data/indexJBD.jsp Versus Year PA AB H 2B 3B HR TB SH SF SO BB HBP GIDP CI AVG OBP SLG Left 2002 129 114 31 5 0 5 51 1 2 23 10 2 2 \N 0.272 0.336 0.447 Left 2003 132 105 32 6 0 6 56 0 1 16 25 1 2 \N 0.305 0.439 0.533 Left 2004 127 116 33 7 0 3 49 0 2 24 9 0 2 \N 0.284 0.331 0.422 Right 2002 343 314 80 9 1 13 130 4 0 61 17 8 6 \N 0.255 0.31 0.414 Right 2003 485 410 143 31 1 21 239 1 5 65 56 13 8 \N 0.349 0.438 0.583 Right 2004 447 394 137 27 2 21 231 0 6 66 38 9 12 \N 0.348 0.412 0.586

http://www.japanbaseballdaily.com/pacificteam2004.html His SB's were down & his GIDP's were up. .344ARISP, .333A, .394O, .549S There is some concern he will struggle D on grass.

Other options: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/fre...il&positionId=4 Cora, Guiterrez, Sanchez, Wilson http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/fre...il&positionId=6 Aurilia, Cruz, Larkin, Ransom Though Uribe did a pretty good job vs LH: .264A .302O .551S those 4 SS's offer little improvement vs LH. So they're not an option. Of the 4 remaining 2B: Cora .239A .345O .413S R Guit .375A .444O .375S (Bos) - < 20 ab's R San .289A .337O .386S (Tam) - 83 ab's E Wils .299A .304O .433S (NYY) - 67 ab's T Graf .265A .351O .294S (KCR) - 68 ab's They are all improvements over Harris vs LH. As far as a pecking order: Enrique Wilson, Ray Sanchez, Cora, T Graf, & R Guit. If not Ig's then Harris+Wilson or Harris+Sanchez & I think we're set.

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...20entry560820 Castillo is not that much of an upgrade over Harris v RH, & Graff v LH. Certainly not to the point where we should give up Marte & Harris to get him. Castillo costs 16M/3, Graff+Harris costs 1.5/1, Marte costs 4M/2, 7M/3, 10M/4 all at the CWS discretion.

I like the Castillo trade even less now. http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...iew=getlastpost What that tells me is that Graff v LH, & Harris v RH is not that much of a drop off from Castillo v both. Even with Harris' bad numbers vs LH, he still projected to having scored a R or driving in an RBI in 79 games over 564 abs. Castillo had a rating of 84 gms in that category. Factor in Graffanino playing against LH's & I think the impact is close to even. Graff+Harris would cost the CWS 1.5M in 2004. Castillo would cost the CWS 16M/3yr + Marte + Harris.

You are completely ignoring his OBP impact. Koney, & Rowand have spoken about it at Soxfest. They realize that a Thomas ab is worth double the value of any other player on the team. I do not agree with Ozzie's opinion. So far he's been a real loose cannon with the mouth. Trashing Lee like that at Soxfest. The trainers believe Thomas has an outside chance of being ready by the start of the season. That tells me that May is much more likely than Jun for Thomas to play. The cast is off. He is working as hard as possible on strength & conditioning. I would take the glass half full approach here.

They didn't play on a team w Frank Thomas nor at the Cell. I think both in this case would help Igs greatly. I took another look at Harris' gamelogs & he really isn't a cancer. R/RBI gms/mo vs ABs/mo Apr 8/71, May 9/73, Jun 11/66, Jul 9/48, Aug 7/66, Sep 13/85 Tot: 57/409 OBP Apr 299, May 439, Jun 316, Jul 333, Aug 347, Sep 291, Oct 651 Castillo had 84/564. At 564 ab's Willie projects to 79 gms. Their splits are interesting as well: Harris 04: vs LH 72ab/181A/224O/264S, vs RH 337ab/279A/366O/335S Castillo 04: vs LH 143ab/308A/369O/448S, vs RH 421ab/285A/374O/314S There isn't that great of a separation between them vs RH. Castillo is 29 & due to make 16M/3yr. Harris is 26 & dirt cheap (as MLB goes). Doesn't it make more sense to get a solid UIF who is strong vs LH's to sub for Harris? Graffanino vs L 68ab/265A/351O/294S, vs R 210ab/262A/326O/348S 1.1M in 04.

Pods, Rowand, Dye, Koney, Everett, Uribe, AJ, Crede, Harris Speed at the top(Pods, Rowand), Speed in the middle (Uribe), & speed at the end (Harris). If we are lucky & Harris excels it would be best to slot him ahead of Crede. But he has to earn that.

If you look at last season after Maggs went down in Jun the team was still very competitive. But then Frank went down in Jul & the team tanked hard. Betw Jul & Aug over those 55-60 gms they were 10 gms in the hole. Sep was surprisingly strong but I think that had more to do with our callups being better than most others. It's definitely Frank. No other player on this team can impact winning or losing like he can.

Castillo Close & Late 04: .306A. .358O, .353S, .711OPS I do not think that is going to make up for the severe loss in quality with a pen made up of Shingo, Hermanson, Vizc, Politte, Adkins, & Cotts or someone of their ilk (save Shingo). Take a look at how many bad appearances Herm, Vizc, Pol, Adk, & Cotts had & then get back to me on whether you still want to do this trade. I expect worse things out of Herm & Vizc. Not better. They will be facing much tougher AL lineups this year.

As long as Thomas finishes near the top 10 in MVP the CWS will honor his 10M player option.

I'm beginning to think it's going to be Igs. More because of the lack of what's being written than anything else. Everything to do w Igs in Jan is centered around the CWS. There appear to be no other suitors. If the CWS have a hard time flying under the radar I can't see any other team being able to do it. If the interest was still there we'd be reading about. Likewise the lack of articles surrounding the CWS trading for Rollins, Polanco, Castillo, Durham, or signing Larkin lead me to believe that KW thinks Igs is going to break our way. What we do know is a report broke that the CWS offered 10M/3yr just prior to the opening of Soxfest. That beats any offer Igs will get from Japan. My guess is that his agent is using that offer to see if he can get a better one from Japan right now. If they can't I see them joining the CWS. It's the only thing that makes sense when you read the various reports.

I think KW is doing the right thing. He's playing hardball with Iguchi because there are no other suitors. There is no such thing as Boston or NY flying under the radar. That's simply not possible. If either team was hot on the heels for Igs there would be someone writing about it. If the 10M/3yr deal is legit then it makes sense for KW to continue to discuss the 4M/2yr in public so the CWS don't bid against themselves. I think we can assume that Igs will accept more $ to play for the CWS than to play in Japan. It's just a question of what that final figure turns out to be. I think the biggest news on this is that no one is writing about the CWS trading for a 2B or SS or even UIF any more. Right now Graff's name is the only one I've read about & that makes perfect sense. The CWS need a UIF to fill out the roster.

72 appearances. Not 60. More than any other RP on the CWS including Shingo. Put it this way. And you are once again illustrating my point. If Castillo has 8 bad games the rest of the lineup may be able to over come that. It doesn't have the same effect that as to when an RP has 3 bad games. The other 3 guys: Politte, Hermanson, & Vizc had double digit bad games. About 4-5 times as many as Marte. Losing Marte & replacing him w a guy worse than those 3 will mean less wins for the CWS. It doesn't matter what Castillo does because it's many times harder for a team to come back when a RP blows it in the 8th or 9th. It's why setup & closer maybe the two most important roles on any team.

If not Iguchi, then I'm still looking at Durham, Larkin, Rollins, Polanco, & Castillo. But not at the cost of Marte.

Turmoil in Twinkieland: http://www.startribune.com/stories/509/5191284.html Johan Santana, Kyle Lohse and Carlos Silva are all unsigned. The Twins will now go to arbitration with all 3 players. If all 3 should win arbitration (at least 2 should) I do not know if the Twinks can afford all of them. This may force the Twins to trade more players. For those who didn't know today is the last day a team can avoid arbitration with type B players. Those are the one's with less than 6 yrs worth of MLB ab's, starts, or appearances. Those arbitration amounts are then decided by Feb 1.

http://www.japaneseballplayers.com/en/player.php?id=iguchi This site seems to be keeping up w the news. It's all CWS for Jan. http://major.jp/news/news20050117-4952.html White Sox & Inokuchi remain far apart on negotiations: Inokuchi side 20M/3yr, WhiteSox side 4M/2yr. If there is a 10M/3yr offer it's not been mentioned.

Shingo Tot: 0r 47, 1r 6, 2r 4 Apr 0r 4, 1r 1, 2r 1 May 0r 11 Jun 0r 10, 1r 1 Jul 0r 6, 1r 1 Aug 0r 8, 1r 1, 2r 3 Sep 0r 9, 1r 2 Marte Tot: 0r 57, 1r 9, 2r 5, 3r 3 Apr 0r 6, 3r 1 May 0r 9, 1r 2, 2r 1 Jun 0r 11, 1r 1, 2r 1 Jul 0r 9, 1r 2, 2r 1, 3r 1 Aug 0r 13, 1r 2, 2r 1 Sep 0r 9, 1r 2, 3r 1, 2r 1 Marte had 3 very bad appearances out of 72 that inflated his era. Otherwise he pitched as good as Shingo.

I'm not so quick to just give up Giambi as you are. This guy was on a HOF pace before that news. If he can still play & the NYY's want Koney & are willing to pay most of Giambi's salary to get rid of him I say we do that trade.

Some of you don't know what that means so let me help. Among NL hitters w 450+ ab's, L Castillo ranked 58th out of 84. Among AL relievers w 50+ ip, Shingo ranked 7th overall & Marte ranked 17th overall. Among NL relievers w 50+ ip, Vizc ranked 39th & Hermanson ranked 50th. Among AL relievers w < 50+ ip, Politte ranked 41st. I refuse to give up the 17th best reliever in the AL for the 58th best first string player in the NL.

Even the Sags suggest a bad trade here: ............................................ RPG DOL$ R H HR RBI SB W TB AB ONBASE OUTS CS SB*SB/SBA OPS A 58 Castillo, Luis FLA B 5.07 18.2$ 91 164 2 47 21 75 196 564 240 404 4 17.64 58 out of 84 starters. ..................................................NPERA DOL$ IP ERA SO WN MOB SV RICKEY/9IP OPS B 7 Takatsu, Shingo CHW R 2.01 16.5$ 62.1 2.31 50 6 9.10 19 7.12 .550 B 17 Marte, Damaso CHW L 2.89 12.9$ 73.2 3.42 68 6 11.36 6 5.95 .666 ..............................................NPERA DOL$ IP ERA SO WN MOB SV RICKEY/9IP OPS B 39 Vizcaino, Luis MIL R 3.34 7.5$ 72.0 3.75 63 4 10.75 1 6.13 .724 B 50 Hermanson, Dustin SFG R 3.67 9.0$ 131.0 4.53 102 6 12.44 17 3.57 .748 C 41 Politte, Cliff CHW R 3.55 -6.3$ 51.1 4.38 48 0 13.32 1 4.09 .755 That is simply to wide a separation from Marte to any of the other 3. Anyone else you add at this point is likely going to be weaker than these 3. I don't believe MIN would trade Romero to get Castillo & I don't think the CWS should trade Marte to get him either.

Castillo R/RBI/gm: Apr 15 in 92 ab May 14 in 93 ab Jun 13 in 100 ab Jul 15 in 82 ab Aug 10 in 84 ab Sep 17 in 105 ab Tot: 84 in 564 abs He's a pretty consistent offensive player. Dye had 83 scoring games last year. But 16M/3yr + Marte at 10M/4yr? Castillo is a proven NL player. Not a proven an AL one. Though I will say he did well vs AL teams @ AL parks (but it's a small sample). I want to add that there is a big drop off between Marte & the rest in terms of scorless appearances & successful outings. That includes Politte, Hermanson, Vizc, & Adkins. There is small drop off between Shingo & Marte in that respect. Would MIN give up Rincon or Romero to make this trade? I don't think they would & I don't think the CWS should either. Rincon, Romero, Nathan vs Shingo, Marte, & Politte give MIN the edge over the division right now. Making this trade is furthering that separation & hoping that Castillo can make up the difference. All the good LH setup men have been taken so Marte is not easily replaced. Vizc did his work in the weaker NL. I hardly think that represents proven success in a much tougher AL. So if we lose Marte now we are going to battle 2005 without a player of his caliber. Probably someone close to Vizc caliber. Find another way w/out using Marte.

Someone in the CWS needs to make an apology to CLee for those comments. CLee is part of CWS folklore involving the Chi-town series. That is the last guy you want to tarnish. Ever. It would be better to tarnish Maggs than CLee. I'm pretty pissed at Ozzie right now for those comments.

This is a bad deal for the CWS even though we have fans here lobbying for this trade. Castillo comes at a price of 16M/3yr. Marte costs 4M/2yr or CWS options bringing it to 10M/4yr. Based on his performance of the # of games he did not give up a run that is a steal. As I pointed out in an early thread you still have to replace Marte. Assuming you are going to replace him with equal quality that's going to cost you on avg 2-3M/yr. Thus driving the cost up to 19M/3yr. Forget it. As someone pointed out in the MLB thread you are better off keeping Marte & offering more $ to Iguchi in the form of bonuses. If the rumor of 10M/3 is correct, then throw another 3M in bonus money at him to bring it up to 13M/3. That far exceeds what he can make in Japan & outbids any other MLB team. After reading what Iguchi did in a pitcher's park in Japan he offers much greater upside to the CWS than Castillo does.