JUGGERNAUT

This is no longer a rumor. Soriano signed with Texas for 7.5M/1yr. They continue to work on a multi-year deal.

Soriano just signed a 7.5M/1yr deal. That removes another option for 2B. I am not giving up Marte's contract for Castillo's. It's very simple. You have yet to convince me that Castillo will play a greater role in wins for the CWS in the next 3 yrs. The cost of adding Castillo is not just 16M/3. You have to add the cost to fill Marte's shoes as well. I believe Marte had 59 appearances last yr w/out surrendering a run. That's talent. Does Minn win the div with Castillo's or Romero's? The answer is obvious: Romero. The CWS has had the weaker of the two BP's the last 4 yrs. This chance they have the opportunity to close that game. I'm not going to weaken that buy trading for a better bat. Marte's contract is all in the CWS' favor: 4M/2yr or 10M/4yr.

http://baseball.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/park...r?sort=HRFactor Another interesting link. We are the #1 HR park in all of MLB. You are 6% more likely to see a HR at the Cell than at the #2 park, Wrigley Field. Runs: Cell #3, Wrigley #5 Hits : Cell #3, Wrigley #9 (more indicative of a weaker NL) - 7% difference 2B's : Wrigley #14, Cell #16 3B's : Wrigley #15, Cell #17 BB's: Cell #11, Wrigley #17 - 3% difference Our new OF should drop us in 2B's & 3B's.

Cora did not hit under 200 2 months out of 6. That's the problem with Harris. He has a couple of horrible months. Not just bad.

The dimensions are L-R 330, 377, 400, 372, 335. That means you need a guy with good vert leap & speed in LF. If Pods has a better vert leap than Rowand then I would put him in LF. You can still take advantage of his speed by shifting the OFers so that Rowand covers more RF than LF. If Rowand has the better vert leap than I would put him in LF. Balls hit near dead CF either have the distance or they don't. They are rarely hit to where a CF can make a leaping play on them. That is not the case in LF & RF. There are plenty of plays when an OF can snag the ball will a good leap.

Jason Giambi http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=5386 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/bvsp...d=3226&teamId=4 vs CWS http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/bvsp...d=3226&teamId=5 vs CLE http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/bvsp...d=3226&teamId=6 vs DET http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/bvsp...d=3226&teamId=7 vs KCR http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/bvsp...d=3226&teamId=9 vs MIN .250A .295O .446S vs Radke, .250A .312O .440S vs MIN .308A .400O 1.000S vs Anders, .378A .465O .811S vs KCR .214A .439O .321S vs Johnson, .220A .393O .366S vs DET .250A .400O .650S vs Rhodes, .254A .400O .424S vs CLE He has sparing ab's against most of these teams but the one thing that stands out is his OBP. Adding Giambi would be like adding another Thomas. Both have very good eyes & draw a lot of walks.

Would you trade Koney in his last year for a Giambi+50M? I was talking to some NYY fans & they believe their team is targeting Koney for the future. Even if Giambi can still play they say the stigma surrounding him is to hot for NY. That reduces Giambi down to about a 4M/yr price. Career #'s: .297BA .411O .540S .951OPS Look at his #'s over the last 2 yrs & he's been a very productive hitter. 2004 342O 379S 208A Games in which he had an R or RBI vs AB's for the month Apr 11/68 May 9/58 JUn 9/60 Jul 6/45 Aug DNP Sep 3/33 Tot: 38gms/264abs 2003 412O 527S 250A Oct 07/59 Tot: 7gms/59abs Apr 17/93 May 09/96 Jun 21/83 Jul 12/85 Aug 15/88 Sep 13/85 Tot: 87gms/535abs - not as good as CLee but good nonetheless When you consider he still managed a 342OBP while hitting just 208 he still remains a good eye at the plate. Roids didn't help or hurt that. To lock up Giambi at a price betw 4-6M/yr in exchange for Konerko seems like the right thing to do. That may very well be what happens if the NYY's can show what Giambi is still capable of in ST. Why would the NYY's do this? Because it's been rumored they might just try to settle with him & release him. So the money is not an obstacle for them. Getting Koney in the process would be a bonus for them.

All I have to say to this is that CLee either scored a R or drove in an RBI in 92 games for the CWS last year. That's 10% more than any other player. That's a high price to pay for CLee not trying to take someone out at 2B.

Of all the dream trades I'll take that Texas one above. That's an incredible dream.

1. I think the better question is what is my asking price for Marte? My asking price is a RP w 70+ ip, a 3.5 era, < 700 ops vs. or Castillo + 4M. 2. Vizcaino + Harris + mid-level prospect. I think we can get a replacement for Vizc. I'm not convinced he's going to do well in the AL. The FLM are tradiing Castillo primarily to purge salary so I think that's a reasonable price.

Again with the bunts :rolly Ok. Lay it on us. What % of Uribe's bats were bunts? Because I'm giving up a guy who's OBP & BA are 10% higher than Uribe's. I'm not knocking Uribe. I'm simply saying Rowand has earned a spot better than #6.

I'm open to a trade for Castillo but not at the cost of Marte. You need to look at the contract for this two. Castillo is an above avg NL 2B. Marte is one of the top LH setup men in the AL. Castillo will cost you betwen 10M/2yr or 16M/3yr. Marte will cost you betw 4M/2yr or 10M/4yr. Big difference. I'm keeping Marte. He's a proven AL guy. Castillo is still a hit or miss NLer.

Again it all depends on the $. Is it safe to say Castillo will cost 10M/2yr? Marte's contract is very good: $1.25M in ‘05, $2.25M in ‘06. Team options for ‘07 and ‘08 ($3.0M vs. $250K buyout each). That's a very good price to lock up one of the better LH setup men in the AL. I still say no. Good LH setup men are hard to find & even harder to sign long term. If you can make this trade w/out Marte I'm more open to it.

I just can't buy the Uribe #2 argument. He has accomplished less over his career than Rowand has. Neither of them have had great back-to-back seasons. Aaron has a goal of hitting 30HR/stealing 30 bases. He'd have a better chance of meeting that goal in the #2 spot. Moving him to the #3 until Frank returns is not a bad move either. Pods, Uribe, Rowand, Koney, Dye, Everett, AJ, Crede, Harris. The only problem with it is that all of your speed lies betw 9-3. Dye's the only avg runner in 4-8. The rest are all below average. As for the rotation with OH as a #3 they have the ability to skip one of his starts in the first month. Using him as a #4 or #5 to start with they can skip two of his starts.

The difference in bunts & speed betw Rowand & Uribe is not large enough to make up for the difference in OBP & BA. Rowand is the obvious choice for #2. As for Ozzie's comments he makes no mention of using El Duque sparingly. If you look at the schedule & you pencil him in as a strict #3 there are few ops for him to get more than 4 days rest or skipped starts. That's why Cooper's plan of skipping El Duque starts around off days is the better plan.

Our BP is a questionable strength. They are NL transplants after all. Those are always hit or miss. I didn't know Castillo was signed through 2006. I saw the 4.5M for 2005 & his yrs & figured he wasn't. How much is he due to earn in 2006?

My trade would be Konerko, Garland,Sweeney to Washington for Livan Hernandez and Jose Vidro - No. Someday you'll wake up & realize your a fan of a team that has to maximize price vs performance. The 3 guys you are trading have been above average in that category. Stop ignoring the cost. There is a good chance that Koney will sign an extension for below avg cost. The same can be said of Garland & Sweeney is your #1 OF prospect. Both the guys you are trading for are NLers. We all know what that means in quality. Plus they would likely be rent-a-players. Damaso Marte, Jon Garland and Brian Anderson to Fla for AJ Burnett and Luis Castillo - Again no thank you. Both of those guys are likely rent-a-players. So I'm giving up 2 yrs of Marte, & possibly 2 yrs of Garland & a solid OF prospect for 2 rent-a-players. I'm not that desperate to win. The Garland, Koney for Vazquez trade made sense because you had Vaz for 3 yrs. Trading for rent-a-players while your team's payroll is already over 70M & over 60% is tied down in multi-year deals makes no sense. At least for the CWS. The SFG are looking for an OF. We've got some to spare. If Durham can be had for one of our bench players and one of our mid-level prospects then I say make that trade. I would still consider Borchy a mid-level guy.

Walks only matter in relation to OBP. OBP Uribe 327, Rowand 361. SLG Uribe 506, Rowand 544. BAV Uribe 283, Rowand 310. The choice is obvious. Cooper is the pitching coach. He felt that it would be better to use the off days to rest Hernandez. Give him more time off between starts & less starts than the other 4. Cooper's had a lot of experience with pitcher's injuries. Ozzie hasn't. I think Cooper is the better voice on the subject. The risk is quite large. If Ozzie pushes the 39yr old too hard too fast we could lose him for good in the 2nd half. Cooper's plan tries to avoid that.

I don't think Castillo is signable after 2005. It's just my opinion but I think you're basically giving up Marte & Harris for a rent a player. The money in that swap is basically the same but your trading for Cas with the intention he's going to have a good year for you. Assuming that happens he's going to be cost-prohibitive for the CWS. Marte is signed for 2 yrs so in my opinion that's too high a price to pay. Durham I feel will cost much less in talent but more in $ for 2005. The CWS seem to be serious about 2005 so I think he's worth the added $ cost.

I'm getting concerned with Ozzie. I think he's going to break this team. I don't agree with him on his lineup nor do I agree with him on his use of El-Duque. Cooper agrees with me. His lineup: Pods, Uribe, Dye, Koney, Everett, Rowand, AJ, Crede, Harris Rowand out hit Uribe, Dye, & Everett last yr. So wtf? Rowand should be #2, & Uribe #6. His rotation: Buerhle, Garcia, Hernandez, Contreras, Garland Cooper says he wants to maximize the off-days to skip starts for Hernandez. Ozzie completely ignores that. So I guess the 24 yr old will be sittling on the bench & the 39 yr old being the work horse. Dumb. Hernandez should be skipped whenever possible.

He's an upgrade over the UIF we have now.

The thing that impresses us about Igs is that something seemed to click for him after his surgery in 2003/04. He's got solid OBP & SLG #'s since then. Add to that the fact he avg'd 40+ SB's/yr over that time & he seems tailor made for the CWS. Then we read he put up those numbers in a park comparable to Safeco Field & we're salivating at what he can do in the Cell in a division where 3/5th's of the rotations are below average. Long term we are thinking of the impact. There is a large asian community in Chicago & it's a known fact some of them came out with Shingo's success. If the CWS could expand their asian connection that gives them a unique character of Spanglese. That's something you can market well. So both long term & short term this move looks really good for the CWS. But if Igs is not an option I would opt for Durham. He's got a nice combination of speed, power, & good D. SFG would only trade him to free up cash so he can likely be had for 2005 at 5M. I think Castillo, Rollins, Polanco are all going to cost too much in both $'s & talent. If you trade for them you are all but certain committed to signing them to a multi-year deal. The talent you have to give up to get them will demand that. Larkin is still an option but I'd rather have Durham. Soriano is not an option. He will make close to 8M in 2005 & a multi-year is looking to be no less than 24/3. He may prove us wrong & be worth 10M/yr but I don't see it yet. The potential is there though.

I'm sold on the park dimensions article. Sign him. Look at it from the CWS perspective. Koch was a bust. You spend 6M on him. You were able to get something in return. Clayton was a bust. You spend 20M on him. It's been KW's nature to roll the dice on potential for the bigger prize. It's yet to work, but you can't fault him for trying. I think the odds of Igs reaching that potential are about the same as him being below average. Even if he hits 250 as long as he's consistent month to month that's an improvement over Harris. The team can ill afford players hitting near 200 2 months out of 6 this year. The odds of Igs failing so bad that no one will want him are very remote. Even at 10/3 as long as he's near average the CWS should be able to get something for him if they should move him. He will be moveable. That's almost a guarantee. So when you consider it from the ups & downs even at 10/3 it's a low risk. Now let's look at the upside. Rowand hopes to steal 30 bases. Fat chance. He's never done that. I'll put him down for 25. Igs has average 40 the past 2 yrs. I'll give him 35. Pods has averaged a remarkable 55 over the past 2 yrs. I'll put him down for 60. Betw those 3 alone that's 135. Wow! Dye, AJ, Koney, Frank, Crede, Uribe are probably good for another 20-30 so we might very well have 160 SB's next yr. I'll play it safe & say 150. That's nearly double what we had in 2004. More importantly we are probably looking at an OBP avg of 340 in front of Thomas. With Rowand's stellar report of Frank that's going to be a nightmare for other teams to contend with. Speedy guys with decent OBP on ahead of Frank. Add Frank's 400+ OBP & the table is set for Koney. Just tell him every time Frank's on 1B, whatever you do avoid the GIDP. In the 5th spot I'm going with Rowand. It fits the speed angle. If Koney gets on you want the next guy to have enough speed to avoid the DP. That would be Rowand or Uribe. I'll take Rowand. 1-Pods 2-Igs 3-Thomas 4-Koney 5-Rowand 6-Dye 7-Uribe 8-AJ 9-Crede That might be the best mix of speed & power in all of MLB. The biggest GIDP threats are Koney after Thomas & Crede after AJ.

It was a bad decision by AJ, but he's obviously a tough SOB to begin with. It's not a bad idea to have a guy like that on the team. But again I point more to a lack of discipline w the SFG than to AJ. Why didn't any one retaliate? Why didn't the mgr say something? If you create an undisciplined an environment then anarchy creeps in. It's not just AJ. We've heard & read a lot of stories in SFG the past few yrs. They have a problem & they need to clean it up. The situation with the CWS is completely different with Ozzie. He is the biggest SOB. We saw this with his handling of Garland & we read about it in his comments in the press. He's not afraid to get into some one's face or is he afraid to lay down the law when it comes to conduct. If something like this where to happen in the CWS, Oz would be the first to bust AJ in the chops. It's not going to happen.

I strongly disagree. KW is definitely getting a bargain here. You are forgetting that Rowand is classified as a CF. That means his price is determined by his D as much as his O. 2M - 2005 : below arbit value 3.25M - 2006 : As long as he's strong D even w a 15HR, 15SB season still below arbit. 3.25M-5.00M - 2007 : The White Sox seemed to have broken new ground with Thomas' contract to where they are applying the same principles to the other players. I've not seen many other teams follow this path. In any case, if Rowand is still strong D, features a 330+ OBP, & a 500+ SLG 5M is still a bargain. I still think Dye is KW's best off-season move. A player that once put up MVP numbers for less than the price KW spent on Val or Clayton is a steal. But this ranks right behind it. Locking Rowand up for 3 yrs at reasonable prices makes good sense. That solidifies our OF for 2 yrs. Enough time for the young prospects to mature & get ready for the CWS. The CWS is one of the strongest teams when it comes to grooming OFers. That's a testament to KW both before & after he's become a GM.