JUGGERNAUT

Hendry is right on his assessment of Maggs. It's going to take more than a physical & a few workouts to judge whether he can still play any where near his career average. I'm now thinking he won't be signed before ST but will get an invite with his most likely suitor. He'll have to prove his worth in ST & from there he might get a few more offers.

I can see the Marlins being in this hunt as well.

Wrong. I said I could care less about his era. I look at his impact as a reliever on wins & losses. His 59 scoreless appearances is what sells his value to me. Adkins, Herm, & Vizc are wll below that. Not even close. I'm shocked some of you still don't have a picture of what this season is going to be like. We are now Chicago's version of the Twinkies. Gone are Lee & Maggs. On the shelf for a while is Thomas. Gone are the blow out games. The vast majority of games will be hard fought & the Sox will win or lose them with pitching. Not an avalanche of runs. Those days are long forgotten. This bullpen is going to have to protect more 1 & 2 run leads than at any time in recent Sox history. The wins & loses are going to be in their hands. Mostly Marte's & Shingo's. Another way of putting it is that they are just as important to the Sox as Nathan & Romero are to the Twins. They wouldn't do this trade & either should I. I was open to the trade if Vizcaino proves himself early on but then I thought if he does that he'll cost much more than Marte in 06. What's the point? There is a greater likelihood that Marte will finish in the top 10 in NPERA in the AL in 05 than Vizcaino to finish in the top 20. If we lose Marte, & neither Hermanson nor Vizc finish in the top 20 we will lose the division. It's that simple.

I'll make it simpler for you. The Sox owe him betw 6-7M/yr for the next 2 yrs. If he breaksout in 05, they will keep him at that price. If Garland has a better year he'll probably be seeking 5M/yr. That's the min price these days for an experienced above avg starter. That's what Garland would be with a better year.

If Thomas has a near top 10 MVP season the Sox will not buy out that last year & Thomas will not opt for FA. The media pressure will be to great to retain Thomas. In this scenario, Thomas will play for the Sox in 06 for a 10M base. With the loss of Maggs I'm likewise beginning to think the Sox are leaning towards keeping Thomas as a lifer. His contracts have been more than reasonable to date & his cost vs performance has been well above average including the injuries. Keeping Thomas as a lifer almost guarantees a boost in attendance in his final year. Especially if he's put up #'s making him a consensus first ballot HOFer. He's pretty close to that. That's a marketing icon that a team doesn't just give up easily. The best case scenario would be for the Sox to treat Thomas like Seattle treated Edgar.

Anybody can beat Harris out in ST. Out of all 25 men on the roster he's the most likely to lose his job. There are at least 6 strong LH starters in the ALC this year. That doesn't include the pens.

The guy wants to start. His #'s vs LH are not much better than Harris'. There are 6 LH starters in the ALC this year the Sox will face regularly. Another 6 in the other AL divisions. An everyday player needs to hit both. I'd be more inclined to sign Enrique Wilson as a UIF.

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...st=0&p=562480 Attitude or not, I agree with you. We will face more LH pitching this year than previous yrs. Harris is not an everyday player until he proves he can hit LHers.

I agree with the splits. It's not a question of it being only 200 ab v LH but rather there is no sign of improvement. If we had his ml split numbers we'd be able to see if there was any hope there. But we don't. So based on what we do have, you can't seriously consider Harris an everyday player. Look at the LH in the ALC: Santana, Sabathia, Moroth, Robertson, Lee, May, & Anderson. Then add LH the Sox are sure to face at least once: Johson, Lilly, Zito, Hendrickson, Moyer, Rogers, & Redman. There are more quality LH arms in the AL than in the NL.

I don't know if any one from KW's staff reads this site but if his choices are now between Japan & the Sox (because all of the other teams have starting 2B now) I would offer him just enough to beat any Japanese offer & make his next 2 yrs a player option. He made the equiv of 2.3M in Japan last year. Again helping his team in the post-season. He's probably due for a raise that would pay him at least 3M. But he's a proven player there & a risk here. So give him a 10M/3 plus enough incentive $ to top the best offer out of Japan. As we all have been saying the Sox are his best chance to showcase his talents. Because of Shingo he is going to get a LOT of media attention playing 2B for the Sox. So if he's confident in his play he should take a contract that gives him the power to go where he wants in 06.

The M's are really in the opposite boat than us. We are shifting are $ from sluggers to pitchers because of the Cell & they are learning to shift their $ from pitchers to sluggers because of Safeco. The Wrigley team is not far behind us in HR & other power numbers so the Cubune should be thinking the same as the Sox. On another note this is a big time for the Twins org: No home town bargains coming from Santana. If they can't lock him up to a 25/3 deal then he will likely take arbit in 05-06 & opt for FA in 07. He felt his demotion to the minors & lack of promotion from the bullpen yrs ago was unwarranted & has never forgiven the club for those decisions. There's no way the Twins just let him walk so 05 might be his last yr as a Twin.

I agree with Cooper that the Sox should use the off-days to skip starts & stretch off days for El Duque. Living in the land of Oz, in Apr: Mark vs CLE, MIN, SEA, DET, OAK Fred vs CLE(2), SEA, KCR, OAK El-D vs CLE(2), MIN, KCR, DET Jose vs MIN(2), CLE, KCR, DET JonG vs MIN, SEA, DET, OAK Who makes these schedules? MIN has 2 great off days. If they skip their 5th, they can bring Santana, Radke at us on the 9th, 10th & then can bring Santana at us again on the 19th. If the Sox take advantage of their off days to skip starts then we could match Mark vs Santana on the 19th. But then Jose faces OAK.

Whoa .... where's all this Harris hate coming from? Have you looked at his numbers? Harris' problem is that he can't hit LH's. He put up pretty respectable #'s vs RH's. Considering that typically around 1/4 to 1/3 of MLB ab's vs LH for an full-time player the Sox can bench him at those times. It's not something the Sox can't deal with.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?statsId=6419 The numbers don't mean much in that win share report, but the rankings defintely have meaning. Take a look at Rollins. Castillo R/RBI gms = 85, Harris projected to 78 full-time, & C Lee was 92 in 04. Led all Sox by 10%. ow look at Rollins: R/RBI gms vs AB Apr 7/71, May 14/107, Jun 19/122, Jul 17/120, Aug 21/114, Sep 20/123 Tot: 98 that's about 7% more than C Lee. He avg'd 33 SB/yr in recent yrs, & he's a capable switch hitter: vs. Left 165AB .303A .365O .473S .837OPS vs. Right 492AB .285A .342O .449S .791OPS He made 2.5M in 04, & is expected to cost less than Castillo in 05. Defensively: .986% 4.01RF .858ZR vs Uribe: .983% 5.29RF .881ZR Castillo: .991% 4.81RF .858ZR Harris: .990% 5.16RF .822ZR RF - is a measure of how many plays a player made in that year ZR - is a measure of how many plays a player made vs other players fielding a similar zone.

Compare Marte's 03 vs 04 appearances & it's really 3 bad gms out of 72 that inflated Marte's ERA in 04. The other aspect of this trade is that since it means the Sox are picking up 16M/3 then I would think Castillo is not the only option. Rollins & Polanco deserve consideration as well. Especially Rollins. Rollins was the 40th best hitter in the NL & a major catalyst for Philly wins. Polanco was the 45th best. Castillo was 58th. In 03 Polanco was the 35th best. Since Philly one signed them both to 1 yr deals they might actually turn out to be better cost vs performance players.

The biggest concern w Iguchi is not whether he can hit. Every scouting report you read says he can hit. He might even be stronger v LH than RH which fits well with the Sox. What concerns scouts is his speed & D. Were they inflated because he plays mostly on a carpet? They feel this was the problem with Kaz. He has done poorly in his speed & D playing on grass w the Mets. That's affected his hitting as well. Iguchi has weird numbers when it comes to his speed: 2001 40+ 2002 < 20 (shoulder injury) 2003 40+ 2004 < 20 (more shoulder problems) I definitely think health is an issue. But again his biggest intangible is post-season success in Japan. In that regards he's a proven winner. He's helped his team win the Japan Series & he's had big hits throughout his post-season ab's. It's that kind of a resume that makes him real attractive for the Sox. About all we can say wrt to the on-going negotiations is that the Sox have moved closer to his demands in offering a 3rd yr. I've read that from more than one source. That would suggest the 10M/3 offer is real. He's not getting any younger so maybe the CWS could structure it so the 2nd & 3rd yr are player options. That gives him a year to prove himself & become a FA if he wants. If he can get the job done then he might be worth the 20M/3 to the Sox because of his potential draw with the fan base.

Marte is definitely among the top 10 RP in the AL. But many of you are making this trade on the hope that Vizc & Herm can get the job done in the AL. I share you're hope but I'm doubtful. I can't believe one of you said you value a great lineup over a great pen. I suggest you look at the past World Series winners & divisional winners before making such a statement. A great pen is essential to being a contender. That being said if Vizcaino can get it done in the AL then Marte might be expendable. But we really have to wait & see on that. I certainly would not make this trade now. Maybe around June if Harris+Valdez is not getting it done. I believe Ozzie is going to split their time between LH & RH. Assuming of course we don't get a better UIF in that time.

Look at the numbers. All Castillo really adds is more consistent D & a better stick against LH than Harris. Against RH's they are pretty much even. Our big disagreement is not really whether Castillo would help the Sox. It's no question he's an upgrade over Harris. However; you value our so-called pen upgrade much more than I do. I think with Hermanson & Vizc it's hit or miss. They could be good or they could get rocked. Vizc looks to be more shaky than Herm. The separation between these two & Marte is big. Much bigger than betw Castillo vs Harris. It seems to me the Castillo trade will be an option for the CWS for some time this year. I'd rather wait & see how the new pen fares before giving up Marte.

The Angels are looking at Aurelia so I think this is doubtful for the Sox. We need a UIF badly right now. If you look at the depth chart that role is being played by Uribe & Valdez.

The weird off days pretty much make it a lock for the Sox to go w 6 in the pen. There isn't much to go on with W Valdez but what is there suggests he can hit LH pitching. That's Harris' biggest weakness & knowing how Ozzie was able to get Val to give up switch hitting I feel a little better about going w a Harris+Valdez tandem. Harris v RH, & Valdez v LH.

Rollins signed a 1 yr deal with Philly as well.

All total the Twinkies are about 2.7M apart w Lohse, Silva, & Santana. Santana accounting for 1.8M. I think they'll just eat that cost & keep the team intact. Probably their best bargain is Silva where they are only about 600K apart.

He wrote this before today. The Twins have Santana, Lohse, & Silva going to arbitration. I see them having to make trades to cut payroll if they are to sign all 3. The CWS on the other hand have all their players signed, still have a 10M/3 deal out there for Igs & are willing to spend to upgrade their middle IF.

How about Vizc+Harris+1M for Castillo? The Marlins still get a 2B, a solid NL RP, & 1M to cover his cost. Maybe throw in a PTBNL as well.

Comparing Vizquel to Castillo is ridiculous. Vizquel has ranked in the top 30 list of offensive AL players many times. Castillo hasn't even cracked top 40 once in the NL. Now if you're comparing Vizquel at his present age to Castillo's potential I guess that's reasonable. But Vizquel was a GG at SS & not 2B. That's worth a bit more. Plus the CWS were not willing to go about 4M/yr. So that's an extra 4M/3yr they would be spending on Castillo.