JUGGERNAUT

For a pitcher I guess they are using wins & saves. For a hitter I think they are using runs & rbi's when the team wins. That's probably not fair because it negates production when the team loses. Lee 04: Apr 12, May 13, Jun 19, Jul 16, Aug 13, Sep+ 19 Lee either scored at least a R or RBI in 92 games last year. Pods 04: Apr 18, May 15, Jun 13, Jul 10, Aug 11, Sep+16 Pods either scored at least a R or RBI in 83 games last year. Pods 03: Apr 6, May 10, Jun 19, Jul 13, Aug 17, Sep+ 16 Pods either scored at least a R or RBI in 71 games that year. 03: W67-L94, 04: W68-94 That shows you the impact of this guy's 70 SB. He was a factor in 12 more games in 04 despite a decline in BA, OBP, & SLG. 04: .244 .313 .364 .677 +79 03: .314 .379 .443 .822 +64 03 Home .302 .356 .448 .804 +54 03 Road .326 .403 .437 .840 +67 04 Home .213 .297 .317 .614 +84 04 Road .274 .330 .411 .741 +56 Like Harris, he demonstrates more patience when he's struggling. At least we can say he won't be a bust. Any guy who is a factor in 83 games while hitting 244 is going to have an impact.

Just comparing Harris to Cora (who is likely the CWS next cheapest option): Alex Cora 04: April .213 .284 .344 .628 +71 May .369 .468 .538 1.006 +99 June .340 .450 .400 .850 +110 July .256 .340 .354 .694 +84 Aug .233 .349 .342 .691 +116 Sep .208 .310 .333 .643 +102 Harris 04: April .254 .299 .324 .623 +45 May .384 .439 .438 .877 +55 June .182 .316 .197 .513 +134 July .188 .333 .229 .563 +145 Aug .288 .347 .379 .726 +59 Sep .218 .291 .295 .586 +73 In Apr Cora hit 041 worse than Harris yet trailed only .015 in OBP to Harris. Cora wins Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Sep. Harris wins Aug. Look at Aug though despite hitting just 233 Cora manages a 349 OBP beating Harris who hit 288. The last column is OBP-BA. I call it the patience index because it really is about getting OB w/out a hit. Cora demonstrates consistent patience both when he's hitting good & hitting bad. Harris shows patience only when he's struggling. Similar to Boon e in that respect. That's why Cora is a big improvement over Harris.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}> I've put their month to month #'s against each other. Cora is a substantial upgrade over Harris. Rollins had 1 bad month (Apr). His Aug is respectable. More importantly he demonstrates patience at the plate. Consider how much we spent on Clayton just to upgrade the IF D. Rollins is worth at least that much.

Because that's the biggest change. You have Val+Uribe's production to compare vs Uribe's+Harris'. There is a big dropoff between those two pairs. Harris had some very bad months.

I think we can assume a healthy Frank will contribute to at least 30% of the wins & probably rank either #1 or #2 behind Koney. How about Contreras as well? There's no way he's only going to contribute to 1 win in 05. I think we can pencil in at least 10% for Contreras. On par with Garland. 2005 prediction Pauk Konerko 26 0.31 Frank Thomas 25 0.30 Aaron Rowand 24 0.29 Juan Uribe 19 0.23 Mark Buehrle 18 0.22 S. Podsednik 14 0.21 Jermaine Dye 18 0.20 Freddy Garcia 0.18 S. Takatsu 15 0.18 A. Pierzynski 12 0.13 Willie Harris 10 0.12 Joe Crede 9 0.11 Ross Gload 9 0.11 Damaso Marte 9 0.11 Jon Garland 8 0.10 J. Contreras 8 0.10 D. Hermanson 9 0.10 O. Hernandez 8 0.10 Ben Davis 4 0.05 Timo Perez 3 0.04 Carl Everett 3 0.04 Luis Vizcaino 3 0.04 Cliff Politte 2 0.02 Jon Adkins 2 0.02

Well I've had a chance to look at the win share report & saw Rollins as a leader in that dept for the Phillies. Since he made shy of 3M in 04, I like this option very much. Rollins at SS, Uribe at 2B, Harris on the bench. But again I have to ask why would the Phillies want to trade him? He was a top 3 contributor for them in 04.

Well not yet, but we're hoping Uribe played some SS last year & Harris played nearly all of 2B. So I wouldn't consider that new. If not Harris then an established player will fit that spot. That's different than MIN grooming new players in their IF.

You're assuming that we have more to give to AZD for Vazquez than the FLM do. I'm not sure I would agree with that but if AZD wants Byrnes that badly & Beane covets something we have then I would certainly pursue it. A 4 team trade surrounding Vazquez as a part of the RJ deal. What a ripple effect!

Well I agree that as far as hitting goes where the guy is placed in a lineup can have a much greater impact on their performance than say where they are playing at. Sags can't really factor that in but it would be nice if we have some measure that could. I would treat that as a handicap. For ex, Thomas-Maggs-Koney-Lee. All 4 of those players should be handicapped vs say another player because they have star talent either ahead of them or behind them. Maggs & Koney should have a higher handicap than Thomas & Lee. It's also why it's important to know where a guy is going to fit in the lineup when you sign or trade for him. When it comes to pitching runs scored in my opinion is more important than earned runs. That's the difference between winning & losing. If an RP gives up a hit but is not charged with an earned run you still lose the game. I believe a run scored would be charged against the RP. When it comes right down to it we comb the stats as CWS fans because for the most part marginal players pass through the organization. This happens with FA signings, trades, & promotions. There are few sure things in this organization & there are few numbers to count on. If we were the NYY we wouldn't even both looking. Just all-star appearances would be enough.

Ok, let me clarrify what I'm saying. It's not difficult to improve over 04. You had Maggs & Thomas sidelined for most of the year. If Thomas plays more in 05 than in 04 you just improved the team. So w/out question KW improved the team. But he could have done a lot better getting a LOT more for Lee. Will it make a difference? If Pods sucks yes. If Pods regains his 2003 form no. If he's somewhere in betw maybe. In terms of the ALC we can expect: MIN - decline. There is no way you lose most of your IF & improve. The loss of defensive skill in the IF should put added pressure on the pitching staff. No real upgrades. CLE - improved. Milwood is definitely an improvement over what they had. DET - Major improvement. With the addition of Percival I don't know if we can win the season series from them. Moroth & Johnson both own winning records against us & Johnson might not even be there #2 guy. Thank God they did not get Pavano. KC - Decline. Could be the worst team in the AL next year. CWS - Improved over an injury plagued 04 but declined since 03.

There's no use crying about it. It's all going to come down to Pods. If he improves to his 2003 form it was a good trade if he declines further from 2004 this trade sucked big time. I do find it interesting that as much as Pods declined in 04 he still contributed to more than 20% of the B's wins. That's more than Dye did for Oak.

But he came at a cost. To get Lee, Melvin parted with Podsednik, the team's cover boy and Vizcaino, it's most reliable setup man.

Scratch the rankings because the separation is not equal between ranks. CWS-2005-TOTAL 3.09 /25 = .12361 CWS-2004-TOTAL 3.00 /28 = .10714 The 3.09 represent the combined % of each player's contribution to the 83 wins. Because many players contribute to many wins it's > 1.00. The 25 represents the 2005 roster including Cotts w a % of 0. Similarly the same applies for 2004. The resulting % represents the avg contribution for any player on the roster. The difference represents the improvement or decline between rosters. Summing it all up as someone said above KW's changes should result in at least 85 wins. About a 2% improvement over 2004. But of course some CWS fans won't look at it that way. They'll look at is as 2005 is a healthy roster where as 2004 was a decimated one. Therefore we should really look at 2003 for Maggs & Thomas true contribution. On that basis is how we should decide whether KW improved the team. Well I disagree. You can make that argument for Thomas but not Maggs. He was not expected to be there in 2005. Since Thomas was on both 04 & 05 there's no point in comparing his impact. If you want to say a healthier Thomas in 05 will outperform a hurt Thomas in 04 that's reasonable. % of wins player contributed to Paul Konerko 26 0.31 Aaron Rowand 24 0.29 Juan Uribe 19 0.23 Mark Buehrle 18 0.22 S. Podsednik 14 0.21 Jermaine Dye 18 0.20 Freddy Garcia 0.18 S. Takatsu 15 0.18 Frank Thomas 14 0.17 A. Pierzynski 12 0.13 Willie Harris 10 0.12 Joe Crede 9 0.11 Ross Gload 9 0.11 Damaso Marte 9 0.11 Jon Garland 8 0.10 D. Hermanson 9 0.10 O. Hernandez 8 0.10 Ben Davis 4 0.05 Timo Perez 3 0.04 Carl Everett 3 0.04 Luis Vizcaino 3 0.04 Cliff Politte 2 0.02 Jon Adkins 2 0.02 J. Contreras 1 0.01 cws-Freddy Garcia 4 0.05 Oakland A's 91 Jermaine Dye 18 0.20 Seattle Mariners 63 Freddy Garcia 9 0.14 San Francisco Giants 91 A. Pierzynski 12 0.13 D. Hermanson 9 0.10 Millwaukee Brewers 67 S. Podsednik 14 0.21 Luis Vizcaino 3 0.04 New York Yankees 101 O. Hernandez 8 0.10

I was just looking at it & player ranking on the team might be a better way to evaluate the win shares. Lee #1 vs Pods #6 AJ #10 vs Olivo #15, Burke #17, SAlo #22 Dye #7 vs Maggs #14, Perez #20, Borchard #27 (Dye had 532ab) Val #8 vs Harris #9 The expected improvement in production from Dye & AJ should make up for the loss of Lee(04) & Maggs(04). I put the emphasis on Maggs 04. As far as pitching, there is no question that a full year of Garcia, & the additions of El Duque, Hermanson, & Vizc have improved the team. If we can expect Thomas to play more in 05 than he did in 04 then it would be a shock if the 05 team didn't win more games than the 04 did. Still I would feel a lot better with an upgrade over Harris.

Quote: Maggs > Dye, Lee >>> Pods. You are forgetting three other spots: 2B, SS, & C. Maggs > Dye, Lee >>> Pods, Val >> Harris, AJ > Burke+SAlo+Olivo When you look at it that way then Dye & AJ are a wash & they drop out. You are left with Lee >>> Pods, Val >> Harris. I'll add El-Duque >> ELO, Garcia+Herm+Vizc >> spot starters+relievers. So there lies the dilemma. Has the improvement in pitching made up for the dropoff from Lee to Pods & Val to Harris? I don't think it has. I'm confident in Garcia+Herm, but not Vizc. If you trully believe there is going to be a dropoff in Rowand & Uribe then it's hard to say the Sox will be able to overcome the loss of Lee & Val. Remember that when I refer to Val here I also mean the presence of Uribe vs Harris. Harris had 409ab, Val 450ab's, & Uribe 502. So with Val gone Uribe & Harris will split those 450 ab's. That will push both Uribe & Harris over 600 ab's unless KW adds someone else.

The best way to look at win share I feel is how much a player contributed to that team. You can argue whether Rollins 28 is equivalent to Lee's 29. I don't feel it is. I simply value AL wins more because it's a tougher game with the DH. Hitters have to produce more & pitchers have to give up less. What is indisputable is that the majority of the CWS wins last year were due to Lee's performance. Because that measure's Lee vs other players on the same team. That means they played under similar conditions. Likewise I think we can all agree that adding Rollins & moving Uribe to 2B & putting Harris on the bench would greatly enhance the CWS chances of winning the division. Rollins was the 3rd most productive player for the Phillies last year & even if you assumed a decline of his being only the 5th most productive player on the CWS in 2005 that is still a major improvement over Harris. What this all really means is that if KW is done & Harris is the starting 2B then it's a gut call as to whether he really improved the team. AJ replaces the production of Olivo+SALO. So that's a +5. But again it's NL production so maybe it's really worth just a +3. Pods replaces Lee. That's a -15. But maybe -20. Hernandez replaces ELO. That's +4. Dye replaces Maggs+Borch+Perez. That's a +7. Garcia replaces all other starters that were non-factors. That's a +9. Figure Herm & Vizc are included in the Garcia's +9. If you view NL quality the same as AL quality then KW improved the team significantly. If you view as less than AL quality then KW improved the team marginally. Can Pods produce a 15+ win share with the CWS? I don't know. The pitching in the ALC is much better than the NLC. I'd match up Westbrook, Sabathia, Moroth, Johnson, Santana, & Radke against the top 2 of every NL team (other than the cubs) any day. Lee had success against these guys. It remains to be seen if Pods will.

To be fair about this we have to consider that some players had more ab's than others. A replacement of Harris by Boone(593), Rollins(657), & Soriano(608) would pretty much take Harris out of the picture. But for the remaining options the best approach is to add their base to Harris average (40ab/win) to fill out 600 ab's. Harris(409)+Harris(191) 14. Cora(405)+Harris(195) 17. Larkin(346)+Harris(254) 20. Polanco(503)+Harris(97) 20. Durham(471)+Harris(129) 25. Castillo(564)+Harris(36) 20. Rollins(657) 28 Boone(593) 17 Soriano(608) 24 So the pecking order is then: Rollins(3M), Durham(7M), Soriano(7.5M), Larkin(<1M), Castillo(4M), Polanco(5M), Cora(2M), Boone(8M), Harris(<500K)

The NL is bad but it's not that bad.

http://casdra.com/win_shares/ws_all.php Added: 71 Jermaine Dye 18, Pods 14, AJ 12, Vizc 3, Herm 9, El Duque 8, Garcia 9 Lost: 68 Lee 29, Val 14, Maggs 7, Olivo 4, Burke 4, E-LO 4, S-ALO 3, Koch 2, MJ 1 Garcia is a +9 because that was is win-share with Seattle before the trade. On the surface it looks like KW improved the team, but there is a distinction. Of the 71 wins added only 35 were earned in the AL. Of the 68 wins lost all of them were earned in the AL. If you view the NL as inferior to the AL as I do then AL wins have greater value. With it being so close it's hard to say KW improved the team. Looking at our remaining options: Polanco 18, Rollins 28, Durham 22, Cora 13, Castillo 19, Soriano 24, Boone 17, & Larkin 14 in place of Harris 10 Is an improvement. If KW could swing a Rollins trade w/out sacrificing any starters (other than Harris) that would be a major gain. That's a plus 18 win share for a total of +21. Even if you devalue that in 1/2 because of it being NL wins that's still a +10. giving the CWS a 93-69 record. Good enough to win the division. Soriano & Boone represent AL wins so adding them would also push the CWS past the 90 win mark. Durham has both CWS, Cell, AL, & NL experience so his 22 wins is comparable to Rollins 28. Adding Durham should push the CWS past the 90 win mark as well. Incidentally Crede was a 9, so I don't see much reason in protecting him either.

Take a look at the MLB Win Share report. Lee tops the CWS & the ALC. http://casdra.com/win_shares/ws_all.php I hate the trade even more now.

I agree with you. Any trade for Byrnes means that either Rowand or Pods is sent packing. But where we disagree is what the A's would want for Byrnes. It's not Rowand or Pods because they picked up Byrnes replacement in the Hudson trade.

Any news on Rowand yet? Does any one know how that works? I thought with RFA's the team has the right to offer arbit or sign the player. If they offer arbit by the deadline the player has no right of refusal (< 6 yr player). If they don't offer arbit the player becomes a FA. As I understand the CWS did not offer Rowand arbit. Is there now a deadline at which he must be signed or he becomes a FA?

One thing I will say in KW's defense is that we don't know how much Rowand is going to cost. That in my opinion is the primary factor in trading Lee over Koney. If the decision was made to keep Rowand then dumping Lee is the next obvious choice. Rowand is now in the Byrnes category for salary & should be expected to make millions next year. If reports are true then we should expect to hear KW announce Rowand being signed to a 1-2 yr deal for no less than 5M/yr. It doesn't change the fact that KW should have gotten much more for Lee, but it does point to the fact that KW had to trade Lee to accomodate Rowand.

Cora's an upgrade too. He is a very patient hitter who is able to get on whether's he's in a hit streak or struggling. Harris on the other hand only shows patience when he's struggling. That's not a good trait.

You have to take them serious though. Westbrook & Sabathia own winning records vs us & if Milwood can return to his Braves form that could give them the edge over us in the season series. But I would say that IF is pretty big. As big as Contreras winning 15 games for the CWS. If that happens we should win the division.