witesoxfan

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 03:27 PM) Yeah I'd remove the "probably." Sanchez could be a nice under-the-radar prospect, especially with a rebound in 2014 in Charlotte, but Rienzo? Rienzo is a MR, 5th starter, barely in the league kind of arm. If we want anyone good without giving up Q and the team we're dealing with wants pitching, there's no way we can pull anything off without at least including Beck and/or Johnson. Rienzo + Sanchez is similar in talent/upside to the package the Sox acquired Youkilis for which everyone thought was a murderous steal. IMO it's better than what we gave up to get 1/2 season of Liriano but not by much. And sadly it's also about what we got out of Carlos Quentin The White Sox gave up Zach Stewart and Brent Lillibridge for Kevin Youkilis. That is different on about 3 or 4 different levels.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 03:21 PM) Are you serious? I mean Jones you can make a case for but Sanchez? Rienzo? I'd give up both of them for Alonso. If Hahn offered Rienzo AND Sanchez for Alonso he would probably get laughed at. Then no deal. Grandal is just as likely to be a .250/.300/.375 guy as he is worse or better. The sample size for him is less than a full season. Meanwhile, Rienzo could turn into a perfectly serviceable #3-4 starter, a nice middle reliever, or a decent final trade piece. There's no need for the Sox to deal him at this point. Carlos Sanchez is coming off a down year, but he was one of the youngest players in the International League and had a very good 2012. He's probably a utility infielder in a worst case scenario and a fairly decent .320/.375/.425 sort of guy in his best seasons. QUOTE (raBBit @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 03:21 PM) Not sure of your angle here but PED suspensions didn't stop our front office from acquiring Flowers or Nieto. Flowers was coming off a great year in AA and AFL when the Sox acquired him. They traded way low on Javy Vazquez and got an OK package of talent in return. Nieto cost $50K. These are very, very different situations from trading prospects for a guy coming off a significant injury AND a PED suspension.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 03:07 PM) So if there is a correlation between getting a win and pitching a good game, a lot of wins would indicate you pitched a lot of good games. There are also times guys give up 5 runs and pitch pretty well, and times when they give up 2 runs and don't pitch as well. I believe it usually evens out, but occassionally it does not. I'll take a guy with 15 wins and a 5+ ERA. Generally that will be a #4 or #5 starter, and it shows you were probably over .500 in their starts. That's pretty good. There is a far greater correlation between wins and your team scoring more runs than the other team than pitching a good game. That's the point. W-L takes contributions from the entire team and places it on one guy at the end of the game. A guy that wins 15 games but has an ERA over 5 doesn't last long. Take Jeriome Robertson - he didn't make the Astros out of Spring Training the next year, was traded to the Indians, and pitched 8 more games before his MLB career was over. If a guy is putting up an ERA over 5, they get booted from the rotation in short order, even if they're "winning."

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 03:01 PM) On the opposite side of things, don't forget about Nolan Ryan going 8-16 while leading the NL in era, IP, k/9, k/bb, and h/9. On a Houston team that really was not too terribly bad.

Grandal was awful last year, is coming off a significant knee injury, and was named in the Biogenesis case. I'm aware Nieto was too, but he cost $50k, and the Sox can recoup $25k of that if they are not happy with him. With Grandal, they have to trade for him (why the Padres would be motivated to move him now, I have no idea). If they can get him for someone like Petricka or Veal or Santos Rodriguez or whatever, then sure. I would not give up Sanchez or Rienzo or Jones. Maybe Mitchell or Thompson, but San Diego has no need for an outfielder. At the prices you guys are talking about, the Sox are better off going with Phegley (whose minor league career has been zapped by illness, but he was absolutely dominant in AAA last year), Flowers (who, MLB track record aside, can still hit the ball 500 feet), and Nieto (who broke out and played well last year). And just to clarify, I'm not advocating the Sox bring in Buck, just that there have been worse players the Sox have brought in.

1. Abreu 2. Johnson 3. Davidson 4. Semien 5. Hawkins 6. Anderson 7. Beck 8. Webb 9. Sanchez 10. M. Johnson Eaton would slot in at 3 if he were eligible

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 02:23 PM) If it is all about how the team performs, can you explain why pitcher's ERAs and all their other numbers are generally better when they gets wins vs. when they get losses and no decisions. Obviously W-L isn't the best, but guys who win a lot of games generally have the other numbers that match up to showing they are pitching very well. While a guy who is 8-12 could have numbers that show he is pitching much better than the record shows, it is less likely a guy who wins 17 or 18 games has numbers that show he actually has pitched horribly. A starting pitcher with a lot of wins is going to pencil out pretty well sabermetrically. If a pitcher pitches well, they are more likely to pitch deeper into the game and their team is more likely to win. If a pitcher pitches poorly, they are not as likely to pitch deeper into the game and their team is more likely to lose. Pretty standard. A lot of times, guys that get "wins" will grade out well sabermetrically, but that is not always the case and that does not make them good pitchers. Chris Sale went 11-14 last year, but he was one of the best pitchers in the league. Meanwhile, RA Dickey went 14-13 with a worse ERA, BB/9, K/9, and WHIP (among other numbers). Who do you believe to be the better pitcher? Paul Abbott went 17-4 with a 4.25 ERA in 2001. He was barely an average pitcher yet was amongst the league leaders in wins. Why? Because he pitched for a team that won 116 games. Jeriome Robertson went 15-7 with a 5.10 ERA in 2003 with the Astros. He was a flat out bad pitcher, but he won games because he played for a team that scored the 4th most runs in the NL, so they could bail him out when he gave up a bunch of runs. In general, good pitchers will win games and bad pitchers will lose games, but a guy winning a lot of games or not winning a lot of games does not say anything about him as a pitcher because, as I've pointed out, good pitchers will lose games if they are on a bad team and mediocre to bad pitchers will win games on good teams. Good pitchers will lose games on good teams if they are unlucky, while bad pitchers will win games on bad teams if they are incredibly lucky. There is no rhyme or reason to W-L and it says nothing about the pitcher himself.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 02:23 PM) Mine was way prettier. This is true of most things about you

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 02:16 PM) It'd be to "add some veteran leadership" to what is obviously a very young team. That said, we're wasting a roster spot on Konerko already and we have a coaching staff as well. Frankly, I agree. I think he is suited better on a different team and the Sox are better off going with Flowers/Nieto/Phegley. If they bring him in, I'm honestly not going to be upset.

QUOTE (Tex @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 01:27 PM) And to prove your case you looked at ERA, WHIP, IP, and GS and used it aganist W-L. I said that was not a good way to look at it. Which is better looking at: ERA or W-L, WHIP, IP, and GS? WHIP or W-L, ERA, IP, and GS? IP or W-L, WHIP, ERA, and GS? GS or W-L, WHIP, ERA, and IP? There isn't any single stat that really stands on it's own. So rejecting W-L because the other four stats are more reliable is cherry picking. If we want to rank the five stats in order I would be hard pressed to place W-L last. Maybe ERA/WHIP then W-L then IP and GS. I wouldn't place IP or GS above W-L. Then we will agree to disagree. I just find absolutely no meaning in W-L. -ERA tells me how many earned runs a pitcher gives up on average -WHIP tells me how many base runners a pitcher allows on average -IP tells me, generally, how durable and/or efficient a pitcher is (though it tells a lot, though not all is incredibly telling of talent) -GS also tells me about durability; thus, IP/GS is important to me as well -FIP tells me approximate talent level of the pitcher this year -xFIP tells me what he should probably be putting up, given his peripherals -K/9 tells me a little about his stuff and how efficient he is about getting outs (which improves consistency) -BB/9 tells me how good a guys control is and whether it will ever typically get him in trouble -HR/9 tells me how many homers a guy gives up -HR/FB tells me how unlucky the pitcher has been about giving up home runs (typically 10% in all circumstances) -GO/AO tells me how good a guy is about producing ground balls which, while more likely to become hits, are very unlikely to be anything more than singles I could go on. On the other hand, W-L tells me how good the pitcher's team was, or how the team performed when he was on the mound. A pitcher has very, very little control over that. He can pitch to his defense and in NL parks, he can help try and score runs when up at the plate. Otherwise, all he can do is pitch as well as he can and then hope the team wins the game. Theoretically, Chris Sale gives up a lead off homer every game he pitches, but then retires the next 27 by striking them all out. His opposing pitcher loads the bases every inning but gets double plays and keeps the team off the board. At the end of the year, Chris Sale is 0-32 while opposing pitchers are 32-0. Did Chris Sale really deserve to lose 32 games, or should he be upset at his team for allowing him to lose 32 games?

Those guys who wanted the veteran backup catcher would get your wishes granted with Buck. If it were a minor league deal (or something similar), I have no problem with John Buck. He seems to be a great guy in the clubhouse (the GIF provided is him consoling Matt Harvey the day he found out his UCL was torn), at one point had a strong arm and quick release behind the plate (no idea what it's like now), has some pop, has been in the league and been around so he knows what to expect, and would presumably know his role coming into the season.

QUOTE (chisoxfan310 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 01:57 PM) Include Jones in a deal for Grandal? Maybe Grandal and low-level arm for Sanchez Rienzo Jones? No. I don't understand the obsession with Grandal. He is just as unproven as Phegley, Flowers, and Nieto. If you could get him for a song, sure, why not, but otherwise it doesn't make a ton of sense. I just don't see a match with the Padres. They are a more talented team that people realize, but their biggest weakness right now is their starting rotation. The Sox really can't afford to deal another starting pitcher.

QUOTE (Tex @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 12:03 PM) See, you grouped several stats, you didn't just look at one. No stat should be isolated. Which was my point. I've never said to look at one, I've just said to essentially ignore W-L.

QUOTE (IlliniKrush @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 12:03 PM) People realize a trade would mean he's not there, not be angry that he was "guaranteed to be there." There's a chance anyone could be traded, so if they were worried about that, you'd never list current players. It's definitely curious. He may not be able to attend too. Or he could be in talks and then ultimately not traded. I'm really not looking into this at all. It's possible, but I have strong doubts.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 11:58 AM) I think it's probably a decision by our marketing folks with information from Rick's folks. Suddenly, Viciedo is not really necessary, and could be traded in the right deal at any moment. Probably wise not to put him forward as a face of the organization at this point. Yeah, I agree. Doesn't mean he's not going to be there or that he's not invited, but you don't want to guarantee his presence there if there's ultimately a chance that he could still be traded.

QUOTE (Tex @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 11:55 AM) 1979 started as a product manager at $18,000 + bonus $18,000 in 1979 had the same purchasing power as $57,785 does now.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 11:34 AM) Jack Curry ‏@JackCurryYES 6m Yankees have signed lefty reliever Matt Thornton to a 2-year deal. He will make $3.5 million each season. Knowing the Yankees, this will work out really well for them.

Welcome to Soxtalk 2? Where is Soxtalk 1?

THIS JUST IN: Steve eats boogers, per Reggie Rose

Without knowing the incentives themselves, it's impossible to know how good or bad the deal with Baltimore was. It could have been 2 years, $9 million deal, $3.5 mill in the first year, $5.5 mill in the second with incentives of about $1 mill for 180 innings, 190 innings, 200 innings, 210 innings, and 220 innings and perhaps Baltimore also got an opt out clause too. The only thing we can safely assume, from an economic perspective, is that the player took what they believed to be the best deal for them.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Dec 16, 2013 -> 08:17 PM) If Jones is promoted we'll still have a serious need for a LHP in the bullpen More than they do already? Jones being promoted has literally no effect on this. QUOTE (JoshPR @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 04:22 AM) He doesn't have that edge, that intimidation factor either. Yeah, averages 97+ with the fastball with a hard breaking slider, yeah, no intimidation at all. Who the hell cares? He doesn't need to brush back his own kid at a father-son game, he just needs to get guys out. With his stuff, there's plenty of intimidation.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 12:58 AM) Japanese pitchers tend to do better outside of the spotlight. Irabu ended up killing himself, Igawa was a disaster in NY, Hideo Nomo was successful for a couple of seasons until hitters figured him out. Then you have the Dice-K fiasco. The under-the-radar guys like Iwakuma with the Mariners have tended to fare better. Of course, it helps to pitch at Safeco or in the NL West. Kuroda's been decent, but the only contract that has worked out (so far) was Darvish, and it's not like he's single-handedly led the Rangers back to the promised land, either. One thing he has done was improve...instead of starting off well and then nosediving or getting injured. Kuroda has been just fine in both LA and New York. Nomo was BETTER when he was pitching in a big market. I don't buy this theory at all.

Threads like these are why I love this board

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 06:30 AM) That's fine. But you're talking about an outfielder (CFer) that had 2,336 career hits and is a borderline Hall of Famer because he played for the Yankees. I would love to have a middle infielder who could hit 19 homers per year for 15 years, but I wouldn't be counting on it. The latest position players we've produced from our system....are? Chris Young. Chris Carter, who's really a DH masquerading as a 1B. Gordon Beckham. Brent Morel. Josh Phegley. Chris Getz. We can dream about Viciedo, Davidson, Eaton, Abreu and Garcia. That's enough for me, for now. And hopefully a catcher to get excited about someday, too. #1) He's basically saying Bernie Williams is the top of that list. If the bat remains and the power develops, he certainly could be a Bernie Williams type hitter. Maybe not to the tune of .297/.381/.477/.858, but .275/.360/.440. That is absolutely similar to Bernie Williams, even if the numbers are down comparatively speaking. And maybe he does put up Bernie Williams numbers for a while. #2) Each prospect should be judged and graded individually. Beckham is the only prospect who can remotely compare to Semien, and frankly, Semien's numbers are far better. The Sox minor league system has not produced many good hitters, but saying that they can't produce hitters simply because of that is just as bad.

I don't think that's unreasonable either. I think he'll end up getting more per year, but I think you and I have the low and high limits as to his yearly salaries. I do think 7 years is too much, but I've been wrong before.