caulfield12

A Singaporean had his passport canceled for breaking quarantine. And speaking of things we’ll never see in the US: Draconian measures: Singapore has introduced new laws governing social distancing during the coronavirus outbreak that could see offenders serve six months in jail. Those who do not keep at least 1 meter (3.2 feet) apart, or who meet in groups of more than 10 people outside of work or school, could face a fine of up to 10,000 Singapore dollars ($7,000) and/or up to six months' imprisonment. source: cnn.com

UEFA Champions League looking at mid May, early June and late June starts. Anything extending into July, the season is probably wiped out for 2020. https://www.yahoo.com/sports/clayton-kershaw-says-possible-december-world-series-would-be-a-little-risky-204321895.html

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/ Best article since this whole thing started. Worth 22 minutes of time, for sure. As far as China, we can double or even triple the numbers to 10000 dead and 250,000 infected, it still doesn’t change the basic facts on the ground around the world. Government control and quick decision making can be a huge strength, but the weaknesses in such a system are patently obvious as well now. Even today, the government would rather go back to coal (cheapest), loosen the money spigots and spend money on dubious infrastructure projects instead of putting it back into peoples’ pockets. In China, they have never really trusted the people to make their own decisions, and now there’s a painful contradiction when the inefficient state operated industries receive loan supports/guarantees to keep more workers employed and the real drivers of the economy, small and medium sized enterprises, are left dangling in the wind.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-29/a-global-consumer-default-wave-is-just-getting-started-in-china

This is where the “what about” automobile deaths argument comes in, what about the common flu, deaths due to assault guns or pesticides or eating too much junk food/obesity or climate change...why is this life and death when those other issues are never addressed by Congress like they are also clear and present dangers? We can’t agree that it is a problem when 25-30% of Americans don’t have health insurance or are underinsured? After that, well, another large percentage believes illegal immigrants paying taxes should get no assistance, no govnt checks and no COVID tests even if they might be endangering the rest of the country. What about homeless people? People in prisons? The virus is tearing right through these two groups right now with no end in sight. What extremes are we willing to go to when there’s no public consensus on anything? Even when there is, let’s say on limits to assault weapons, we still have no choice but the status quo or what, violent revolution against the govnt? In the end, we have to deal with the macro picture here at this stage...testing testing testing....innovating to develop creative solutions on the beds and respirator/ventilators, such as splitting to double existing capacity, innovating innovating innovating to find a vaccine ASAP. The rest is just noise, politicians, statistics. Or we can create a Chinese system for turning on your neighbors, getting rewarded financially for turning those who are sick or not following the rules into the police. Turn yourself in, get money. We can round up anyone with a NY license plate and imprison them, too. But is that really the United States anymore?

I don’t imagine wooden picnic tables in the park will be anyone’s undoing. Touching your face/eyes, then others...any surface in bathrooms, anything metal on the subway or L, coughing or sneezing without protecting those around you, repetitive hand washing with soap. We’re months into this and there’s still a raging debate about the efficacy of various masks...whether they only help prevent spread but are unlikely to stop you from getting sick when in proximity to someone else. It’s like safe sex, the only method guaranteed is abstinence. The only surefire way is to stay inside 100% of the time. But that’s just not practical in America. There’s not a practical delivery/logistics system to get food out to every house like here where you have 1.4 billion people and hundred thousands willing to drive mopeds/scooters around and earn $0.75-1.50 prr delivery with no tipping allowed. Completely different cultures, and levels of obedience/freedom/individual rights. We don’t allow any guns here, only police in military. A court in CA is going to be exposed to danger adjudicating the NRA gun shops as essential services, or OK and other states whether abortion services can be curtailed during a national emergency. No such issues here. No guns. Abortions always available due to family planning policies in place since the 70’s, not that any woman would want to deal with such a situation where she would have a decent probability of getting sick just going to wait in line at the hospital.

UK is also learning this the hard way with so many government officials, royal family, etc., now getting sick everyday. Hubris. Thinking your instincts or gut are better indicators than scientific evidence. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/28/opinions/stimulus-bill-tax-break-for-1-mccaffery/index.html Under the new change, our rich taxpayer couple -- and this applies only for individuals, not corporations -- can now deduct an unlimited amount of "excess losses" in real estate against income from other sources. So now real estate moguls with lucrative day jobs or bountiful capital gains from other investments can go back to living tax-free, the Kushner way, before limits were put in place as part of the 2017 tax reform bill. It gets worse, if that's possible. The change applies to this year -- and retroactively to 2019 and 2018. This means rich people can file amended returns now, and get refunds of perhaps millions of dollars, sooner than we can produce the number of ventilators we might need for the coronavirus crisis. Let's pause for a moment to review: The new relief provision only benefits those who can list more than $500,000 in excess business losses -- typically artificial losses from depreciation that have more than wiped out their business income on paper -- AND more than $500,000 in other income from wages or other sources now that the cap on the tax break has been removed. Pity such people in a time of pandemic? Congress did.

If you have travelled around the world, that is the everyday situation in many 2nd/3rd world or developing countries. Kind of makes you appreciate what we for decades haven taken for granted as the “American way of life,” at least up until now.

Reading list from last couple months... Superforecasting Little Fires Everywhere The Three Body Problem (trilogy) The Cactus League Detour Fall of Shannara Fentanyl, Inc. Latticework (value investing) The Hot Zone The Coming Plague American Dirt Tom Clancy/Jack Ryan, Jr. latest Lost...James Patterson

Yes, we’ve been hearing this since January...yet no substantiated formal academic study.https://www.france24.com/en/20200328-can-the-coronavirus-infect-someone-twice https://eand.co/capitalism-is-literally-killing-america-4e05fee5ffa7 The White House backed out of a deal to manufacture ventilators because the price tag was too high. Go ahead and guess. Ready? It was…one billion dollars. Sound like a lot? Too much? For ventilators for…the entire country…in the middle of a pandemic…that’s already spiraling out of control? Then think about this. Jeff Bezos is worth $113 billion. Zuck, about $60 billion. Warren Buffett, about $70 billion. Are you seeing my point yet? Let me make it clearer. Either Bezos or Zuck or Buffett — or any number of penny-ante mega-billionaires — could pay for all the ventilators America needs right now, and not even blink. Not even think twice. Take Bezos, for example. That one billion dollars to supply the country with ventilators is less than one percent of his net worth.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-violence-erupts-in-china-as-people-try-to-leave-coronavirus-stricken/ Here’s another way to think of it, Greg. Imagine if the fear of people from Lawrence or KS going outside the state to Nebraska or Missouri or Oklahoma was so high THREE months into this that scenes like the above took place as you attempted to cross borders into those states. These are migrant workers with huge debts (no checks from government or any compensation) who were forced to remain inside with their families for ten weeks and are now so desperate to go back to work. They didn’t receive rent or credit card deferrals. Even then, despite the national govnt signing off on it, other provinces are fearful enough you have confrontations like the ones unfolding because everyone in China still fears anyone/anything to do with Hubei. Then, upon arriving to a factory...there’s nothing to manufacture because there’s no demand. The rest of the world is on fire and previous orders have been cancelled or delayed. Or the company that’s previously ordered as one of your most reliable customers is now bankrupt. Call it a double whammy, but this is reality for many here.

Greg, it’s not really a big deal. The last time I went outside the apartment ONCE was January 20th or 21st to play badminton. We lost our scheduled CNY holiday trip to Shanghai before it started, and, thankfully, didn’t end up quarantined two weeks indoors there by govnt officials or forcibly locked indoors with medieval metal devices like some...God knows how they even received food, through the windows I guess. I do it for my son and also it’s only possible because my wife goes out to shop for everyone, but that has been reduced to picking up deliveries at the front gate with goggles, mask and gloves. Sometimes everyone in our apartment complex receives donations of vegetable and fruits like oranges and apples. You have to read read read, watch movies and t.v. shows and do things like Legos or puzzles. Look at it as an opportunity to learn something new, like more about the stock market or investing. I think I’ve read 20-25 new books, something like that. Obviously following the news, but watch different channels like BBC, CCTV 13, Fox, CGTN, BBC, MSNBC. Lots of time with the ipad and playing with my son. Spent weeks eating only dumplings, noodles and fried rice (just rice and eggs.) Almost no beef, pork, shrimp or chicken until recently. Then teaching online and trying to deal with 70-100 students in a classroom that can’t hear well due to connectivity/overcapacity issues, that has been a big change but I quite like it...except it’s not easy to teach with limited direct feedback, especially as the weather gotten increasingly nicer outside.

Well, apparently we now have to save Florida from all those infected in the Northeast...not sure if this is due to the presence of a Republican governor, Mar A Lago or the upcoming November election. Probably all three. Reports on CNN of an infant under 1 year old in Illinois dying from Covid-19...not 100% confirmed.

I really think Greg mostly enjoys playing Devil’s advocate or contrarian...to an extreme sometimes, because it’s one way to spark a discussion or be acknowledged online. If you say perfectly sane/reasonable/logical things all the time, nobody notices, right? Just look at the debate over Dr. Fauci, nationwide. He or Gov. Cuomo get called out as Dr. Doom or dark clouds for attempting to prepare for the absolute worst case scenario while hoping that doesn’t actually transpire. It’s the essence of the current national debate. If Trump can’t even get flyover states like KS, the Dakotas, Wyoming or Montana to go back to work sooner rather than later...well, there’s going to be quite the epic confrontation in the coming weeks. Perhaps Texas becomes the first real test in the reopening after Easter (April 12) as one of the biggest, most important economies in the middle (and a GOP governor). Alabama, too. Without Congress or the Fed to intervene...we’re looking at daily falls in the stock market back down to 16-18,000 range, but hopefully I’m wrong. That will be instantly noticed by Trump/Mnuchin, and cause desperation to ramp the economy back up before Q4/Q1 2021 to set the tone of the daily press briefing. It’s confusing enough with Trump trying to order even more restrictive shelter in place orders in NY, NJ and CT without informing the governors beforehand. How to enforce? With many police officers already out sick, around 10%, and now Rhode Island and Florida trying to track every NYC resident and quarantine them by going door to door....martial law? National Guard and US military including re-enlisted vets occupying every major city? If we can’t open the economy, then the natural direction is to overreact by transforming into an authoritarian strongman (“only I can solve these problems”) to project an image of being in control. Scott Gottlieb, MD✔@ScottGottliebMD I’m worried about emerging situations in New Orleans, Dallas, Atlanta, Miami, Detroit, Chicago, Philadelphia, among others. In China no province outside Hubei ever had more than 1,500 cases. In U.S. 11 states already hit that total. Our epidemic is likely to be national in scope.

Greg, KS Gov just issued new orders. https://www.kansascity.com/news/coronavirus/article241587466.html KS and MO hospitals issuing warning about lack of PPE’s/testing/beds and potentially being overwhelmed. Money (actual bills and coins) even becomes a problem, because there was a fear here that it could carry the virus. Almost everything went to electronic transactions...and it was already nearly there in the first place. Paranoia about touching ATM or elevator buttons reigned supreme. As far as I know, all physical money was taken back by Beijing and burned out of an abundance of caution.

Italy had 969 deaths on Friday -- the biggest single-day jump since the crisis began. The country's health system has been pushed to the brink by the outbreak, especially in the north, which has seen the highest concentration of cases.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-should-the-government-spend-to-save-a-life/

Teach for America or similar programs, we had one in Kansas City, the KC Teaching Fellows...where you get your Master's degree/certification (I had a previous one when I started, but Sports Admin) at night while you are working (it takes two summers and one full school year of night classes, 2 nights a week and some weekends.) The positive is that those programs can often pay for the full or at least half the cost of schooling, That said, it's less logical to do something like that, already having a PhD. Unusual circumstances. I guess with emergency needs or certs, there's a way to avoid this. It gets pretty overwhelming when you have to do 3-4 different plans, substitute when there are staffing needs, then I was coaching volleyball/soccer/basketball after school and taking classes for MA. Then passing Praxis (one for Social Studies, one for History). With prior experience and PhD, there's gotta be a simpler way. That said, the one disadvantage is going to be starting at a higher point at the salary scale (especially if they credit the university teaching program as steps up on the salary ladder) and the fact that most districts might think he's a good candidate to jump back to university at the earliest available opportunity when economic conditions improve. But some might value the education level/experience and think it's worth the risk for 1-2, maybe 3 years. Just depends on staffing needs and retirements at the high school level.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/sorry-conspiracy-theorists-study-concludes-covid-19-not-090026698--abc-news-topstories.html Virus wasn't created in Wuhan Virology Lab artificially...nor did it actually originate at the wet market here in Wuhan, but likely transported in from another area of China where pangolins breed.

What's likely to have happened is that the Chinese press interpreted information coming out of the country...in this way. Not that it was yet an official policy. My wife came into the room just now and asked "How could they be allowing all those older people in Spain to just die without trying to save them?" I'm trying to find something online to corroborate, but it seems these individual situations are not (yet) following official hospital or country-wide policy but more up to discretion of doctors and health care workers. That said, they might need to create a policy pretty quickly in NY because we might be in a similar scenario 7-10 days from now. It might already have happened in one hospital where 13 died, and there was another where the available respirators into last night were in the single digits. No idea how long it will take to convert existing equipment where TWO patients can use the same ventilator...is that something that can be done on-site, or has to be done in the factory before they're shipped out? Whatever the result, that James Dyson is a genius, all that I can say.

In the emergency room at one of Madrid’s biggest hospitals, Daniel Bernabeu signed the death certificate for one patient and immediately turned to help another who was choking. People are dying in waiting rooms before they can even be admitted as the coronavirus pandemic overpowers medical staff. With some funeral services halted in the Spanish capital and no space left in the morgues, corpses are being stored at the main ice rink. Intensive-care wards overflowing and new rules dictate that older patients miss out to younger people with a better shot at surviving, Bernabeu said by telephone. “That grandpa, in any other situation, would have had a chance,” he said. “But there’s so many of them, all dying at the same time.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-25/spanish-doctors-forced-to-choose-who-to-let-die-from-coronavirus The Chinese press tonight is reporting they're close to making a decision that those already over age 60 or 65 are likely going to die when it comes down to these triage decisions of who to save....HOPE that's not accurate.

Three players over there just tested positive...so they might be set back more than one week or have to postpone, because Japanese virus situation is changing by the hour now as well.

Okay, Larry Kudlow. Just kidding. Well, I haven’t sold anything (except last summer at DJIA 27k) for twenty years...can you tell us which day and we can just pretend it’s $100,000 or $1,000,000 for argument’s sake for easy analysis??? Fwiw, those who tried to short the market on unemployment numbers got massacred yesterday. China has ordered no short selling, period. Even with active control, we might be facing around 81,000 deaths by July according to a new detailed analysis from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle. ..... Our for-profit health care system rakes in money on disease, not on health. Instead, we have a system that works for the rich, instead of a public health system for all Americans that readily anticipates and controls new pathogens through testing, contact tracing, and quarantine. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/opinions/us-most-confirmed-cases-sachs/index.html Publication date: March 26, 2020 Assuming Strong Social Distancing, This Wave of the Pandemic Could End in the US in June SEATTLE – In a forecast based on new data analyses, researchers find demand for ventilators and beds in US hospital intensive care units (ICUs) will far exceed capacity for COVID-19 patients as early as the second week of April. Deaths related to the current wave of COVID-19 in the US are likely to persist into July, even assuming people protect themselves and their communities by strongly adhering to social distancing measures and by taking other precautions advised by public health officials. “Our estimated trajectory of COVID-19 deaths assumes continued and uninterrupted vigilance by the general public, hospital and health workers, and government agencies,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine. “The trajectory of the pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions. We encourage everyone to adhere to those precautions to help save lives.” IHME’s analysis, based on observed death rates, estimates that over the next four months in the US, approximately 81,000 people will die from the virus. Estimates range between 38,000 and 162,000 US deaths. http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-us-hospitals-could-be-overwhelmed-second-week-april-demand-icu

https://eand.co/did-you-really-think-capitalism-was-going-to-save-you-from-a-pandemic-41b6ac1d9a41 The point is this: Americans don’t need to work during a pandemic. There is literally no reason for them to. They don’t need to be made to “work” for basics like homes, medicine, money, and food — society has a massive surplus of all these things already. They don’t need to “work” during a pandemic for a similar reason. America is easily rich enough to simply support the whole economy for a few months during the pandemic — which is the wise and right and fair and moral thing to do. Nobody needs to work. Not just because America is a rich society — but because the only “work” that really needs to be done during a pandemic is tending to the ill, feeding the indigent, making sure the disease’s spread is slowed, and so forth. The “work” that Americans are to be made to do has literally nothing to do with any of that very real labour. (Does anyone really need a new home built right about now? How about a trip to the dentist? Or a pair of new designer jeans? Maybe you see what I mean.) You know and I know the real reason Americans are being made to work during a pandemic: money. So that profits rise, so that stock markets rise, so that the rich get richer. So that, in other words, the system doesn’t collapse in on itself. A cynic might have an even darker interpretation: so that Americans know their place. So that they’re so beaten, weary, terrified, and anxious, they never really have the time or energy to question the insanity of all the above.

Why sector SPY compared to a combination of Vanguard 500, vivax, vtsax, small/midcap/Russell, international or emerging markets and REITs? For someone in their 30’s and 40’s, aren’t bond returns going to be so negligible the next 3-5 years...that it might be better to put that 20-25% in a CD at around 4%? In the situation described above, the cost basis resets from original number to the date when it’s inherited, yes?