caulfield12

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 10:30 PM) Thankfully the situation is the same and they haven't spent any more money since the Tanaka offer so things are all still the same. Except all the free agents from last year are nevertheless a big part of the evolving pr narrative being spun for avoiding the market now...

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 08:45 PM) Given how the last month has gone, we will surely see a tweet soon by Nightengale saying Sox won't give up draft pick to sign FA. Didn't we already have that idea with everyone but Gordon/Upton months ago? What changed? Rumors of interest in Fowler and/or Desmond recently?

If he clearly wanted to go to the Mets all along, they should have done their due diligence and started negotiating with Fowler, Jackson, Desmond, etc., days ago. We'll see if that was the case or not...if they really believed they were playing poker and the market was forced in their favor or direction.

The three year/$65 million offer was out there for days. Obviously Hahn wouldn't give an opt out after one year and/or wasn't willing to go up $70-75 million for three years. Maybe they did and he still wanted to stay in NYC, perhap we'll never know other than some vague platitude that our offer was attractive/competitive blah blah. Meanwhile the Mets get another contract year drive and mitigate the long-term risks...not $150 million for six, but that was never realistic anyway.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 09:38 PM) You have actually said both the Royals and White Sox are in 2 year windows. It wasn't obvious Cespedes was lost 4 days ago when you started that thread.In fact there was growing optimism the Sox were becoming the front runners. Clearly losing Hosmer, Cain, Moustakas, Wade Davis, Escobar and Volquez will have the same exact impact as losing Lawrie, Frazier and Cabrera. Without any more additions the White Sox do essentially have a two year window...with 2017 the make or break season. If they miss the playoffs two more years, will they really blow up the payroll to $140-150 million in 2018 when they won't do it now? Why? The difference is the White Sox aren't all-in...they're hedging their bets and in risk-mitigation mode which is great for team profitability but not so much for the fans.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 09:22 PM) Does anyone realize in one thread you started you said to never give free agents more than 3 years or overpay.In this thread you think the sox need to pay up to sign Cespedes, And in another thread you started, you said it would be smarter to sign Desmond and/or Jackson. Of course you started the never give more than 3 years when you thought the sox were going to get Gordon for 4 years.Started the Desmond/Jackson thread when you thought they would sign Cespedes, and now said sign Cespedes when you think there is no chance they sign him. I never thought the White Sox would sign Cespedes...we were, nevertheless, somewhat led to believe that and nobody with the White Sox ever corrected that notion until the past couple of days of Avi fluffing. But obviously I am the only person considering all the options and backup plans and contingencies....Hahn would never do that, right? And nothing in the offseason is ever fluid or the product of changing circumstances...if they don't get Cespedes, clearly no other moves are possible. They will just jump off the roof when they realize their scheme wasn't successful to get a steal of a deal with him.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 09:22 PM) Does anyone realize in one thread you started you said to never give free agents more than 3 years or overpay.In this thread you think the sox need to pay up to sign Cespedes, And in another thread you started, you said it would be smarter to sign Desmond and/or Jackson. 1) For the 500th time, that was for the Royals...because the situations of the two teams are exactly identical! 2) For the 500th time, Cespedes at no more than four years and no more than $100 million. 3) For the 500th time, Desmond and Fowler if they aren't costing draft picks. When it recently became quite obvious Cespedes was lost and they were looking seriously at Fowler, that's the only time it makes sense because you throw away one draft pick you might as well double down and throw away both...like last year. The first round pick is the important one. And it's not like they are investing all that money into signing a blowout Latin American class.

Which is yet another reason for the White Sox to strike now... The Phillies will be one of the teams pushing the envelope to be at least competitive in 2017. That fanbase won't be patient forever, although they did change GMs and managers so that buys them at least one year. Carlos Gomez, Rasmus, maybe a 37 year old Bautista and Josh Reddick. Being chased by twice as many teams as today. Sounds like fun.

The Phillies just entered the first year of a huge tv deal as well...but yeah, the Mariners are getting something like $114 million per season now.

The Phillies just entered the first year of a huge tv deal as well... Ugh stupid wifi connection here in China, keeps hanging up.

The Phillies just entered the first year of a huge tv deal as well...

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 08:57 PM) Do the Mariners have money? King Felix, Seager, Cano, Cruz contracts eat up quite a bit. The Mariners are currently around $136 million...almost 40% is Felix and Cano. http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariner...oll-and-beyond/ http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/seattle-mariners/payroll/

http://nypost.com/2016/01/22/cespedes-pote...ecedented-risk/ Now they're claiming the Orioles might be getting back into Cespedes...see last paragraph.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 08:18 PM) Have you seen what franchise changing players are going for now ? Over $200M ! Cespedes at his price is about the most we can hope for. But still waiting on some franchise changing player just for around what we paid Abreu ($68M ). Hey it can happen again if it happened once right ? Yep, Alexei Ramirez or Kang last offseason..although even then, franchise altering is pushing the definition. We've been so successful (except Dayan) in Cuba we're now often priced out of that market. The one guy I really wanted last year at this time was Hector Olivera, and the Dodgers simply outbid everyone. It will be interesting to see how well the Koreans picked up by Balt and the Twins do...but, once again, franchise altering? Unlikely.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 08:12 PM) You have stated you shouldn't sign a free agent for more than 3 years have you not? How many top free agents sign for 3 years or less? Until Adam Dunn, the white sox hadn't signed another team's free agent for more than $20 million, so overbiidding on free agents is really not something you can say the White sox have done. No, I stated that the Royals after last season shouldn't give out any long-term deals...because they weren't in a desperate overpay situation due to unique franchise circumstances. Gordon was the understandable exception, but Kennedy was dumb.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 07:57 PM) I agree they have been settling for the second tier FA. If RH is under this budget constraint, the other way to go is to create less dependency on FA. Now no team can forego all FA. But they produce or trade for proven MLB players. Then they can go out and get the one FA to put them over the top. I just don't agree that this scenario is now. Cespedes is not a superstar you sign to put you over the top. He is currently the best option, but not a franchise changing player. Therein lies the rub. Closest to a franchise-changing free agent available without trading Anderson/Fulmer or giving up draft pick compensation prior to October, 2017...is the caveat here. And franchise-changing player is exactly what he was last season. Close to MVP-caliber. Much lesser contract seasons have caused the White Sox to overbid on free agents in the past.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 07:49 PM) Thank you Caulfield and personally I think that was one of you better posts. Everything you talked about was related to how much the Sox need Cespedes . Just too much failure lately in a lot of areas. The failures mostly being in the "settling" type of FA who ends up crippling the Sox anyway because they all sucked . High end FA means less likely to suck right away . The Sox are "settlers" . That DirecTV commercial gets credit for me calling the Sox "settlers". They settle for leftovers and like hungry dogs they fight over the scraps. Then they find out the scraps have worms and the dog dies. Lesson learned buy the good meat. I guess we're all trying to rationalize away the loss of something that hasn't even happened yet. Turning on Cespedes like he's bringing ebola into the clubhouse...it's funny how often we hear winning leads to chemistry, and now that axiom's being completely ignored. As you pointed out, Collins had glowing accolades for Yoenis. It's all spin at this point, appropriate for political season. Something has to be wrong...because five teams in 18 months!!! without closely examining the context of each situation carefully. Maybe Ventura won't be able to handle him, so we're better off, probably. Frankly, neither could a Showalter or Scioscia control freak type...and SO shocking to see disparaging quotes from Buck, right? It's just that all this renewed talk of giving Avi more time...it feels like we already went through the same painful process with Beckham and Viciedo, with diminishing returns. Hawk's belief Frazier will help take pressure off Abreu and Avi still won't fix his swing, pitch recognition aptitude or defensive shortcomings.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 07:33 PM) This is the paradox of being a fan. You want to win now, which is understandable. However, then there are complaints about not making the playoffs for a long stretch of time. It's very difficult to do both all tge time. All teams go through ups and down with success. A GM cannot just look to an individual year and disregard tge future otherwise tge team will be really bad. I know we disagree on this but I don't want to go through more periods of long playoff doughts. I want them to start building consistent winners. I also disagree that tge future isn't good. They had some automatic outs in the lineup last year. They've improved 3 of them. That is a significant improvement in the composition of the lineup. I agree that everything will need to go right to make the playoffs. I also thini tge team will be significantly better and is on the right track. The problem is that it takes the one thing that is the most difficult thing to do in sports, have patience. Sure, everything you say is logical enough. The problem for fans is they felt promised a competitive team last year, it feels like they are not prioritizing this year OR possibly even the remaining two years with Frazier/Cabrera/Lawrie...making the question when, exactly? Right now, based on an assumption of Anderson winning ROY and Fulmer winning 15 with a 3.75ish era in his first full season, 2017 will be THE best year to get it done...assuming we can have at least manage league-average DH production. Fwiw, another thread asks will Cespedes get this year's team to the playoffs...my response would be, how likely is it the White Sox don't make the playoffs if Anderson and Fulmer both have the impacts as described next year? And how likely are both those eventualities to occur?

QUOTE (Lillian @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 05:00 PM) Isn't the Royal's stadium a big factor in this consideration? The home run stats for Kaufman vs. the Cell are difficult to compare. Opponents are going to hit homers at the Cell, even with good pitching. I don't think that the Sox can have very limited power, and still win, in their ball park. That's definitely true. Ian Kennedy is never signed by the White Sox. PetCo, shockingly, was the 10th best hr park last year and Kauffman was around 25th. USCF is almost always in the top five to seven, even when you account for our own offense going south in recent years power-wise. If you do have Enciarte and Eaton (who's unlikely to hit 20 again), you need another consistent 25-35 hr threat in there who is average on defense...say, Justin Upton.

I think he was responding to me...

The premise of competing vs. surely making the playoffs is too grey. Are we also to be limited in midseason moves as a result because of his theoretical contract's financial implications? We competed last July. How realistic were our actual playoff hopes? 5-10%?

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 04:11 PM) Can you imagine Cruz debating Sanders? Wow, if they had a betting line for that you could make serious bank. Still doesn't make Cruz likeable. And therein lies the problem. How can you lead if nobody likes you or can get along with you? Obama hasn't worked well with GOP and vice-versa, but Cruz? Trump is pragmatic enough to shift with the political winds when it's advantageous. Cruz would just dig his heels in. Abraham Lincoln he's not.

Gee...we have been suggesting Desmond for how long now? 150+ posts about the same topic since December...

You have to assume Cespedes will be at 3.5 war as opposed to 6. That would still be 84-85 wins and within shouting distance of the two wild cards.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 04:03 PM) L. Ron taught me something, I think. Avi came back from injury with a different swing -- the hitch. It explains why his hitting went South. He was a much better hitter before the injury. Lets hope he is back to normal. If it was that simple, Stevenson would have fixed it last season. We have a video guy who can do sophisticated computerized swing analysis just like golfers do. It's the kind of thing guys like DJ and Harrelson notice right away...and pass on or talk directly to the player about. We saw it five consecutive years with Gordon Beckham.