caulfield12

QUOTE (dmbjeff @ Jan 28, 2016 -> 03:02 AM) Did you know Fowler is 25th among all active players in OBP according to baseball-reference and is based upon their parameters of 3000PA or 500 games played? Did you also know that every player higher than him on that list has had a 20+ HR season before? Every player on the list outside of Joe Mauer are still legit threats to hit 20+ HR a year still. Fowler is very elite OBP guy and considering nearly everyone ahead of him has the benefit of being pitched around due to their big time power. He has really elite OBP skills for not being a power hitter. Does that make him worth the risk of losing a comp pick? I say yes! The White Sox are in "win now" mode. They need help immediately. They need more guys who provide positive WAR. Fowler is a guy who can do that. The player they could choose around 28th overall will not be ready to help this "win now" team most likely. If they trade for someone like a CarGo, prospects are leaving regardless. Whether they be in the system now for someone like CarGo or via this comp pick for Fowler. Even if they stand pat and go with Avi in RF, they will still need to move prospects at the trade deadline to bolster the deficiencies of the roster provided they are still in the race. Either way you look at it, the farm system will take a hit, providing they are a good team this year. Only way the farm system improves is if this team makes no moves at all, falls flat on it's face the first 3 months and then we are out selling off pieces to get prospects in return, but that clearly isn't the goal. I think they do themselves a much greater good by starting with a more elite team now, rather than a wait and see approach. I think if they had $20 million a year for Cespedes, it can be divided up to get Fowler and get a rebound SP candidate, like Latos. It helps in multiple areas and this team needs more pieces then currently constructed to make a serious run at the playoffs. Interesting stat find. One thing is for sure, talent and wins will do more for this franchise than high-tech scoreboards. Heck, there are probably traditionalists who want to bring back the board from Old Comiskey.

Well, it seems the White Sox definitely need a plastic surgery clinic sponsor to go with the Village of Bedford Park...

https://images.search.yahoo.com/images/view...amp;fr2=piv-web I think I can at least partially overlook not signing Upton now....never had seen Siera Santos before now. Free pizza!

http://espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/insider/post?id=12072 Holy salary escalation....we're currently having a hard time justifying 1/6th of that total. Frazier comment in there as well.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 10:12 PM) Would you trade Spencer Adams for Dexter Fowler at 3/$42M? Only if I was sure as GM I would be able to add on at least $10 million in salaries for the last two months of the season...otherwise, kinda pointless to get 90-95% of the way there and then just arbitrarily stop.

Just as likely is you have to move Eaton to LF and Cabrera to RF...but that's just me. There's no ideal defensive solution.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 09:49 PM) If you are a team like the Dodgers, Rangers or Cubs, it makes sense to say you will look at mid-season trades due to system depth. Signing players for money instead of giving up your few resources is so much smarter for the Sox. Look no further than 2012...we added Hudson, Youkilis (granted, that was unusual with Middlebrooks and that whole situation where he was forced out), Myers and Liriano for basically Eduardo Escobar. The White Sox should theoretically be in that position (if they don't add significantly to payroll now) where they can add veterans like a CarGo or Ethier but have already "saved" the first 3-4 months of their salaries. As far as trading away key prospects, yeah...that doesn't look as likely, but you never know who will emerge in the first 2-3 months of the season and become desirable to other teams' scouts.

Reading the tea leaves of Merkin and Harrelson's recent comments, betting money would be on "no." Still, it seems, as you stated, very tone deaf to the prevailing mood in the fanbase at the moment. Despondent is not quite the right word, but frustrated is closer. As you also stated, they're not dumb. So forcing a move right now, just to fit it into the PR storyline of Sox Fest...that's almost always going to work out short-term smart but long-term stupid. After everything that went down with the Big 3, unless there's any compelling evidence to the contrary...we're going to have to take the word of KW and Hahn that the right deals were not out there at the moment, and that the team considered all the possibilities and felt waiting until mid-season was the right move, with all the attendant risks of getting buried in April and May and having another lost/development season. Nobody will like that answer...we heard it basically when nothing happened one way or the other last trade deadline.

The other thing with Fowler and Jackson... The Cardinals, Cubs, Orioles, Nats, White Sox, Rangers, Brewers and "mystery team" (there's always one) are all theoretically in the market looking for another outfield improvement. My assumption is that Fowler's market isn't yet depressed to the point where he has to accept $20-22.5 million for 2 years or $30-35 million for three years. Of course, that could be totally wrong. Just a guess.

QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 09:13 PM) Why do you keep repeating 45 million caulfield? It doesnt even look like he'll get 3 years let alone 3 years for 15 million per. If you discount him down to Denard Span territory (because of the draft pick loss), then all of a sudden the mathematics are starting to make sense. I've been operating under the assumption all offseason that he would be in that range ($40-46 million for 3 years). Let's not forget the comparison with the Cabrera deal as well, last year. Now obviously it could be off. We won't know until he signs, or see the AAV of a one-year deal, two year or three year deal with an opt out after 2, etc. The assumption has become that Kendrick, Gallardo, Desmond, Fowler and Jackson will have to content taking much less or signing one-year deals and going back into the market next year.

QUOTE (CyAcosta41 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 08:49 PM) Count me shocked as well. 10 reasons: 10 -- Great pitcher's park, especially for flyball pitchers; 9 -- great defense; 8 -- GREAT battery mate. REASONS 1-7 ... Pitching all year in the National League. Yeah, All year. In the National League. I'd put the over/under for his Giants ERA at 3.20. Heck, John Danks is probably sub 3.50 in that park in the NL (and I wouldn't be surprised if Danks is a deadline acquisition this year for some NL team if the Sox are out of it). Pagan has really been declining recently, though. The biggest question is the health of Span, Pagan and Pence...if they're 100% healthy, that's a very very solid defense.

Yeah, there's the whole other side of this...how much do they believe in Hostetler to deliver results with that pick? If it was completely the same group running the process, then I could see the argument, that we're almost 0 for the decade producing a DRAFTED hitter, so we can look at past drafts until we're blue in the face and find All-Stars chosen in that same area and find about a 5-10% overall success rate in finding big league regulars. Of course, the other argument, and it's hard to "prove" beyond a shadow of a doubt, is the issue of other players that are drafted like an Adams and you now have the financial flexibility to bring in another potential stud after the first high first round because of your overall pool of money. If you look at it like this: Losing Semien/Bassitt/Phegley/Ravelo + foregoing Adams for the right to pay Fowler $45 million for 3 years...it doesn't seem like that great of an idea. Of course, there's no guarantee we can find another Adams there. On the other hand, there might be someone who turns out even better. The biggest issue is to me that signing Fowler alone (and platooning Garcia/Cabrera in RF but more likely Cabrera in RF with Garcia/LaRoche as DH) isn't quite enough. I would argue Jackson + Desmond for let's say $22.5 million gives you a much higher likelihood of making the playoffs than Fowler alone at $15 million. Now, of course, since nobody here controls the budget or payroll, it might be completely a moot point and nobody will be added other than a veteran bench player. Nevertheless, in "win now/all-in" mode, which we aren't quite there yet...you put everything into the pot and roll the dice. And yeah, the odds of the 2016 draft pick making much of a difference before the midpoint of the 2019 season are very low regardless. That's the difference with KW and Hahn. KW is more of a gambler, Hahn is more calculating and risk-averse. He's cautious about making that one big franchise defining mistake, or maybe he just doesn't have the financial wherewithal to make it after the ineffective spending spree on free agents last offseason.

It's very depressing to think of it this way: Semien (#8 war SS under control for ages), Bassitt, Phegley, Ravelo + loss of $11-13 million in "value" for the #28 pick ALL for the exclusive right to overpay second-tier Dexter Fowler $45 million for 3 years So we're essentially paying Fowler $56-58 million over three years in terms of opportunity cost/alternative choices foregone. We also lost a player in Semien who would be likely to produce a high 2/low 3's WAR at SS for minimal cost...which has now led us down the path to the even riskier Saladino AND the possibility of spending on Desmond to cover that loss in depth. If you start putting it in THOSE terms, it's not very far at all from what the Tigers are paying Upton...granted, you also lose the draft pick there as well. But, you KEEP Upton away from a divisional rival and you're putting your franchise in a very solid position to compete through 2019/2020, but that's ONLY if you called Upton right. (And we don't have any tangible reason to believe Upton was ever open to coming to Chicago...otoh, if you're a FA and can choose between Chicago and Detroit, not much of a contest...and we never heard a peep about the Tigers being in on him at all, either.)

The way the last month has gone, the Cubs will sign him Thursday or right before SoxFest kicks off...

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/162912126/cu...could-sign-soon

Aka Danksed, although in this case they knowingly overpaid by $20 million and are still okay with it. At any rate, they're paying Gordon and Kennedy an average of $12.25 million per year these two seasons...in order to maintain payroll flexibility in order to add at the All-Star break and extend the window two more years... If they miss the playoffs this season, it will turn out to be foolish.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-p...ign-is-sinking/ Greg, read and enjoy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the...0dc6_story.html Milbank/Wash Post rip into Snyder... https://reason.com/blog/2016/01/26/liberals...ity-poisoned-th Counter response is humorous, at best

QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 02:55 PM) What? Where am I advocating signing veterans on the wrong side of 30? How many free agents other than Rasmus, Heyward and Upton have been under 30?

QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 02:50 PM) And everything I'm looking at projects him being much closer to 2015: .236 .294 .390 .299 wOBA 87 wRC+ 1.5 fWAR Not worth the $ to me. Which is why scouts use their eyes and GM's use their intuition/gut/instincts. Going off projections, Kendrys Morales was done in 2014. It's also the same reason not to pick stocks or mutual funds based largely on previous year performance without considering context.

QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 02:40 PM) So $15M AAV isn't a huge comittment if he repeats. I disagree. But that's fine - we can do that amicably. There's good power potential now at 1B, 2B, 3B. I'd rather see that $15M go toward the salaries of a Jackson/Latos, roll with Saladino at SS, and wait for Anderson at SS. Sure. I also realize there's a big difference between $500K and $15M. $14.5M could go toward better options at those other 3 positions you mention. That's the same exact thinking that led from better players to Cabrera and LaRoche...

If we all concluded 3-4 war Cespedes was much more likely this year than 6-7 Cespedes, why would 2 war be more likely than 3.5ish war for Desmond as both players are the same age?

QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 02:32 PM) So what would be different on a 1 year deal? Can we afford to continue to compromise defense in the hopes for a bigger bat? What about Anderson? Is it worth $12-14M? I look at all these things and think, no. Can we afford -1 to +1 war out of three positions in the line-up and still compete? You realize it's not at all unlikely Anderson puts up 25-35 errors his rookie season when we are most setup to be competitive?

Okay...but then you're not also looking at 2012-2014.... Or the fact he made 8 errors in 15 games, temporarily/anomalously had the yips and then had 19 for the remainder of the season. If you go back a decade or so, we had this exact same debate with Clayton and Valentin, who made 25% more errors than Desmond last year but always had amongst the top 3-5 in total chances and top 2-3 arms in the game at that position. KW got fooled by Clayton's error totals being so low.

QUOTE (bear_brian @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 09:52 AM) Anyway you cut it, this guy made 27 errors last year and 24 the year before that. Alexei made 16 last year, just for comparison. He is not a reliable defender, and therefore not what we need to resolve our problem. More and more I am beginning to believe that either Ethier or Jay Bruce is the best available OF answer, and we stick with Saladino at SS. And that is assuming that : a) we get the Dodgers to eat some money for Ethier; and b) we give up the likes of no more than a Guerrero or Phillips. We could keep Avi to platoon DH with LaRoche. Please look at Bruce's actual numbers both offensively and defensively in recent years and forget about the brand name/reputation.