michelangelosmonkey

I'm pretty sure about 14 months ago you would have had Giolito and Moncada on the top of the list of people saying they suck and will never amount to anything. I suppose its part of sports to jump into the debate and feel smart if the guy doesn't pan out. I just prefer the optimist route...and I feel like if Collins was a prospect for the White Sox...all else equal...in say 2004...we would have been SOOO excited about him. But because we have so much to be excited about Zack has become the poster boy for "can't hit, can't field, he'll never make it".

Why would you have such a pessimistic view on Zack Collins hitting? Granted his first sixty at bats in the majors were putrid with a .420 OPS...but his last forty at bats he had an .950 OPS...in Spring training this year he had a 1.200 OPS, at AAA last year he had a .950 OPS, in three years in College at Miami he had a 1.000+ OPS. You know who else missed fastballs? Babe Ruth. Come on...he's only 24 and there are LOTS of data points suggesting he could be an elite hitter.

I think after the 2000 season I felt like we were poised for a five year run of greatness. The team won 95 games and I think had the #1 rated minor league system that was filled with top pitching prospects...Kip Wells and Aaron Myette were top 30 prospects in all of baseball. Buehrle was 21. John Garland had started a dozen games at 20. Jon Rauch was top draft pick the year before was 6-11 and looked like the new Randy Johnson. I don't think I was every so excited about the next five years of the White Sox as I was that fall. I guess a cautionary tale about this team.

So you are taking anecdotal evidence (twitter) that 30 year olds are dying and then laying in wait for someone to disagree with you and insult them (tinfoil hats)?? What's the matter with having a reasoned argument? You make a claim that 3 out of 900 baseball players will be dead if they play baseball. Last week in all of America there were 4 men out of 35 million between 18-34 that died of Coronavirus (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex) and only a few hundred since the outbreak...and your own link (to make this point) says you are 12 times more likely to die if you have an underlying condition. This thing is really awful disease for old people and people with underlying conditions. It is a bad flu for young people. The risk of death is not zero but for most baseball players it is very very close to zero. Give the players that data and let them chose for themselves. Its not idiotic to suggest that there are inherent dangers to living and just learning to deal with that risk is something we humans do every time we step in a car (WAY deadlier for males 18-34 than Covid-19).

If you want to argue that one or two coaches/owners/trainers will die per year...absolutely agree. It's just not them that are talking about their fear of playing again. As for "the infection rate could be 3%"? It could be 9%. Or 2% or 12%...we just don't know yet. The only certain number we know is the 400 dead between 20-34 in a potential pool of 30,000,000. Anyone that is turning down a million dollars given the known risks is either very wealthy or bad at math. Still we can agree that the owners are idiots. This is such a golden opportunity to win casual fans back to baseball. People are desperate to watch sports again...give the players a risk premium to play...and restart the game. They could recover that cost over time if they pick up 5% additional fans...instead they will all jump off the cliff together.

I am using the same site so I'm not sure where you get 800. There are 372 dead males between 25-34. There are 61 between 15 and 24. I split it in half because really...not many 15-19 year olds in MLB. So that cuts your rate down to .18 expected player deaths...or one player every five years. Though of course the rate would likely be much lower as most of the actually victims are not peak athletes. So one player every ten years? Twenty? Now if you want to close down my parents pickle ball game? I'm on board because they are both 90 and that is who Covid is killing.

No one knows. We do know how many died...400 out of a pool of 30,000,000 age equivalent people. And of the 400...how many had other medical issues? 399?

I appreciate you trying to explain to me what I believe and why I am stupid believing it. To clarify...Coronavirus has been running rampant in the country for months...and so far of 30,000,000 American men between 18-34...400 have died from the disease. But sure, if you want to believe that random, constantly monitored elite athletes will die at an astounding rate versus random average American male of the same age...it's a somewhat free country.

So your position is no baseball players are doing drugs because they have a contract?

I'm not including the women in that age range or deaths as there are no women MLB players. The figure is random 18-34 year old male in USA and one out of 75,000 of them have died from Coronavirus. I'm not sure why cases matter as to this point we know precisely the number of people that have died and have no idea of the total number of cases as the vast majority show no symptoms. Further...why would MLB players be MORE likely to get it and die than random American? Seems probably less likely given their peak fitness...and likely maximum testing and isolation procedures. So if you want to quibble and say it would be more like one player every 50 years...or 25 years...fine.

Neither is it as simple as saying that worst case scenario is 900 will get it and 1-2 will die. 1 out of 450 versus 1 out of 75,000...one is scare tactic the other is boring old stats. And while random sports teams might be more likely to get it...MLB will be doing constant testing and isolating. The fear mongering is amazing...same age group you have 15,000 dead a year with drug overdoses versus 400. We shouldn't let the players go to parties.

I just checked CDC website there have been roughly 400 Covid-19 deaths in males between 18-34. There are about 30 million American men in that age group. So to say 1-2 might die from this in MLB this year? To date one out of 75,000 in that age group have died...so more like one baseball player every 80 years. Of course that one will probably be Luis Robert next month but I still think they should take this enormous risk to entertain us for millions of dollars each.

But science in a crisis?? Throw spaghetti at the wall. Like when someone has inoperable cancer and you can't get laetrile because it's not been double blind tested by the FDA so you have to go sit in your hospital room and wait for your death because...well why try stuff that isn't 100% safe.

60 recorded cases out of 330,000,000 people at the end of February in US and zero deaths. I suspect you are right...I suspect a lot of people in NYC, Seattle and California had it in December. A monster came out of the mountains of China. We had never seen this monster before. Our Monster watch organization didn't see it coming and had no real plan in case we encountered a monster. China sends the monster over to the US. When the death rate from the monster stood at zero in the US...we should have had the country locked down. The president took some actions but fell short of screaming for everyone to hide in their basements. Turns out the monster is pretty bad. Monster kills a lot of people. Moral of the story...President is a bad guy.

F) models...repeatable double blind tested trial

I think many of your ideas are useful. I think the next time we will be better prepared. I think there are zero presidents in my lifetime that would have ramped up production in January for a virus unknown outside of China at that time....or end of February when twenty Americans had it. I think outside of a few in the CDC most people in the US were not that freaked out about Viruses. I asked my parents if they remember the 1957 outbreak (in their thirties at the time) they can't even remember it...and it was BAD. I was a young kid in 1968 and remember the Hong Kong flu...but more as a comedy punch line than something I was "afraid" of. Sars, Mers, Swine flu? The annual flu? Meh. Only 40% of Americans were even bothering with the flu vaccine. But NOW....every weird disease is going to be treated as if it is the big one. I for one wouldn't mind seeing 10% of the $700 defense budget being shifted over to the CDC. Of course we are always fighting the last battle...five years from now it will be a super volcano and everyone will be saying the president is an idiot because he didn't prepare us for it...or alien invasion...or polar shift...or solar flares that knock out all electronics. So many terrors out there.

And those idiots in France...and those Idiots in Spain...and those idiots in Belgium...and those idiots in England...and those idiots in Sweden...if we could only have you as world despot there would have been zero deaths.

Come on Caulfield...CDC gets billions every year to prepare for this. The president has no idea about viruses...he has a multi-billion dollar organization that has been running for decades and a pandemic comes along and the life long veterans that are there...gave this? Institutions run irrespective of their leaders. GM can have a bad CEO but the guys throughout the organization still understand cars. The test launch is an embarrassment. France has been worse. UK worse. Were they too stupid to copy the Koreans too? The Canadians?

That's interesting. It's amazing what a truly totalitarian state can do. As you rightly say it doesn't offer much guidance to the swirling democracy we live in. I'm not sure it's fair to say "well if it would have been Obama it would have been worse." I'm ideologically opposite of most of where President Obama stood...but I always thought he was elected and had a right to try and truly was good-hearted in his attempts at doing things I disagreed with. Sure Fox news had negative stuff on him but only 30% of it was shrill. But 90% of all news articles about Trump have been negative. It's exhausting. Honestly everything he's done has not been horrible. His responses to this virus have not been horrible. But it seems there is no sense reason on the other side. I used to love the Sunday political talk shows...not for the canned politicians reciting their talking points...but the moderators and talking heads dissecting the events. Smart guys thinking and saying smart things in opposition but well thought out. Now it is just who can howl the loudest Trump hate.

Spain, Italy, France, UK, Sweden, Belgium, Canada all have more deaths per capita than the US. So to suggest we are the only ones stumbling in the dark on this thing is just wrong. As I wrote earlier...we are also uniquely positioned to have it hit us hardly. Seems like the villains in this drama are 1) China 2) CDC, 3) WHO (for getting billions in funding over the years and being completely flat footed on this). If you want to put Trump and other EU leaders up there...fine.

I appreciate you being there at the epicenter...and we all pray for you Caulfied. I've been to China many times and I'm familiar with the totalitarian state. I'm sure they have Hubei completely locked down. But there are 65 cities in China with more than a million people. Hundreds of thousands left Wuhan on crowded planes, buses and trains to every region of China. There are 13 cities in China with more people than NYC and NYC has 25,000 dead. Something is missing.

Most Asian airports that I have gone to have always had those heat sensing stations and a lot of the populations already wearing masks. You could say we should have started this after Swine flu when Obama was president but that might seem political. Anyway I think this is an incredible lesson for us to learn for the future and I think for the remnants of us alive once this thing is gone we will rise up and rebuild a new greater nation.

What are you smoking? I have NEVER said this wasn't a big deal. This is a very big deal. Viruses are bad. I didn't CALCULATE the numbers for ten million. How about a million? It's about 100,000 in the US. They have 4 times the population, are a month ahead of us on the curve and have a population with damaged lungs. I don't believe their numbers but I'm pretty sure if the real number was half a million some dissident would have sent that information.

But half a million people left Wuhan province the weeks before the shut down. The epicenter of this and they spread to every region of the country...every city and village in China. If you do any modeling of a super infectious virus with moderate death rates China should be swimming in corpses.

January 24h we didn't know anything. The Chinese had just gone to the extraordinary measure of quarantining 40 million people and Trump was being supportive and at the same time drafting a plan a few days later to restrict travel from China.