almagest

There's a definite trend where spikes are lower and shorter, and yesterday was the lowest number of cases since May 2nd. We'll see if today continues that trend but they seem to have turned a corner. And yes this whole thing is pretty damn stupid, because it's not like their actual results show any huge spike or anything. It's like they thought they weren't winning enough. Completely baffling.

Google still shows a downward trend. I don't think this is that big of a deal. Stupid, yes. https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+stats+georgia&oq=cov&aqs=chrome.3.69i59l4j69i57j69i61l3.4968j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Some good news: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/no-spike-in-coronavirus-in-places-reopening-us-health-secretary-says-idUSKBN22T0HN We'll see if it holds.

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-phase-ii-results-antibody-testing-study If 14.9% of people have antibodies for COVID-19 that means almost 3 million people in NY state have been infected. Also according to this 24.7% of people in NYC tested positive. If these numbers are accurate around 2.07 million NYC residents have had COVID-19, a 1196% increase from the official 160K confirmed cases figure. There is improved specificity on these tests as well.

I'm just thinking of how much better the Bulls reputation would be if you could say "you can come here and play with + learn from Michael Jordan" to prospective free agents.

Man, that makes me sad.

Yup. That was me. There is some concern about how accurate antibody tests are (pointed out by @Balta1701), so I'd take all these results with a grain of salt, but we do seem to be converging on a large disparity between known infections and actual infections. Hopefully that holds because it means this is A) less deadly than we thought and B) we may be closer to herd immunity than we realize.

Got it. Appreciate the depth. The appropriate response here seems to be skepticism of these results, barring a response to the known quality concerns with antibody tests.

That doesn't make sense. If 5% of positives are false then I would expect the actual % of positives to be something like 2.85%. Unless you mean that up TO 5% of the total number of positives are false, meaning anything below 5% are likely all false? Either way, do you have a source on the 5% false positives? And if this false-positive rate is well known, why wouldn't these sorts of models have those projections built in already (either by direct result adjustment or multiple tests to confirm results)?

https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/16/3-dutch-blood-donors-covid-19-antibodies Netherlands has 29k reported cases. If the true infection rate is 3% of the population, that's actually 518k cases.

KBO would be great. So would NPB. I want easy access to every pro baseball league!

The Jewel by me has been up and down, but in general I can get what I want. Target is a little more picked out because they offer delivery. Plum Market is almost fully stocked and is handling this super well.

Bidets are the best. I can't go back. I've had these for like 5 years. Highly recommend

You should also read what I said - nothing about lifting social distancing. I agree we need to do it. My point is, projected death estimates are going down which is a bright spot, and if you're doom and gloom right now this should help. I also think this will end up being a lot less fatal than we expect due to how we've seen novel diseases spread in the past few decades - if Neil Ferguson is raising his estimates on the infection rate we're looking at a lower overall CFR by default.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model I think some of the gloom and doom posters here should read this. We’ve got a problem on our hands for sure but as expected the models for COVID fatalities are being driven down pretty drastically.

That's not necessarily true. The death rate (and likely the infection rate) isn't a normal distribution, so you can't say "if 10,000 people get it and 200 die that means if 100,000,000 got it 200,000 would die". The current understood death rates should be broken down by age and comorbidities and it's a disservice to everyone to not add those numbers when discussing. Also, numbers like CFR are misleading at this point anyway because we don't know the true number of infected. My guess is we've been dealing with this for longer than everyone knows and we're looking at a real infection rate of 10x? 100x? the known number of infections right now.

Italy in particular also has a ton of smokers, has the 5th highest median age in the world (45.5 - the US is 38.1) and 48.6% of those who died had 3+ comorbidities

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0156-0.pdf

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7

If you're curious, this is the mortality rate for 44k confirmed cases in China, broken down into a number of categories.

I would agree. I also don't know if teams are going to overpay for a catcher with bad framing, mediocre overall performance and a couple bad months last year. Seems prime for regression.

It could make sense. He has the best year of his career and he's still relegated to backup. I don't know if he's going to start anywhere else except on a bad team, though.

I heard he was marathon streaming the entire Sega Genesis library on Twitch.

Heyward was a good signing at the time. He provided 15-20% above league average offense in right field and was one of the best defensive outfielders around. I would've been super excited if the White Sox signed him. If he kept providing 3.5-6 bWAR per year that would be a great deal. That's the risk you take when signing top free agents though. You can slam the Cubs for not considering their future financial flexibility but they were pushing to win a world series and they had enough depth to absorb Heyward being a disappointment. I'm curious how they haven't been able to offload his contract though. He's not old and could rebound with a change of scenery. If they ate some of that deal and didn't accept too much in return that could free up resources for more pitching. I guess no one wants him, though.

Man Vaughn can hit.