almagest

Yeah, this is where I'm at. I think the window is more like 2021 at the earliest now. If they go out and make a ton of trades and signings for 2020 to try to become competitive I'm going to be pretty damn frustrated because they'll probably be right back where they were in 2016.

Me too. Seems most relevant right now.

Oof

?

If you're basing this on his age 21 and 22 seasons with absolutely no future projection of improvement and not including Kopech or Basabe then yes that is correct.

He's been a league average hitter so far and he's only 23.

??

What was Kaplan's rumor?

Not Shack's fault dude. He can only tell us what he's heard. Place the blame on the organization where it belongs.

If we're absolutely not going to sign Harper and we can get some good prospects or even solid players (like Joc Pederson, though I'd want to see about an extension for him) off their roster I'm fine with this. I'm still pissed off at the team but at least this is something.

I don't think this is the case, but it COULD be that the Sox said something like "Hey you don't like Dan Lozano, we now don't like him, we both want to one-up him now so keep our involvement quiet here and we'll match or exceed any offer up to $X dollars". I don't think the Sox are doing this (I think they're out honestly), but I am a spiteful, petty, vengeance-driven man, so this is what I would do.

Maybe, but if you get something really good in return for them it lessens that blow. The Sox could always find a 2-3 WAR outfielder in free agency or from someone else in their system (assuming they have any depth which they probably won't).

Sure, but you bet on his track record. That's why you pay him. Projecting Harper to be bad before age-based regression is catastrophizing.

Also if they trade any OF prospects the idea is that you get something of value in return, probably pitching given the injuries we've seen lately.

If the Sox are bad enough that Harper wants to leave in 3 years then it doesn't matter if he opts out.

If your only other option is the shithole that is Philly you'll be more open to playing on the southside but still living in a world-class city.

If the Dodgers get involved and get him its gonna be an offseason of "you stupid fuckers waited too god damn long!" for the White Sox and Phillies.

FIP should help control for that. I agree it sucks making pitchers labor more with bad outfield play but at this point I'm more worried about finding actual good pitching instead of losing half a run to ERA from a bad RF.

They have to see what they have with their current players. Don't sign anyone who could block Palka/Delmonico/Cordell/Engel/whoever. It's likely none of those players amount to much but on the off-chance one does you would never see it signing a mediocre veteran who likely won't be much better. They need to lose now and lose until their minor leaguers start to produce. Once that happens you can look at filling holes with short-term acquisitions.

If the Sox don't pull a miracle here I hope the Padres swoop in again. Maybe that will help teams understand they need to move quickly next time.

Boy wouldn't it be nice to hear that from the White Sox?

I'm surprised this has been so quiet since Machado signed. Seemed like we'd see this get done quickly, and there hasn't really been anything other than "Sox are out, Phillies still in". Either Harper doesn't want to go to Philadelphia or no one is close to a reasonable offer yet.

I'm just not excited about any free agents after this year. Maybe Trout but that's not happening. This is a unique opportunity to help build a team with a sustained chance of success for many years, and any other free agent after this will be hole patching and not contributing to any chance of success beyond a small 2-3 year window.

Cherry picking reasons isn't going to look like anything but sour grapes at any point. We don't need to cherry pick to show why losing out on Machado is a disaster. Machado has played in basically every game for the last four years. His knee problems were almost five years ago now. Yeah its a potential flag but there's nothing we know of that would indicate any team was worried about his knees.

It's not "too heady". People understand the post. It's just wrong. First, other more illustrative numbers aside, Harper has struck out ~21% of the time in his career. Dunn ~29%. That's a huge difference. Next, the impact of a top-tier free agent in the prime of their career isn't JUST their performance. It's also allowing the White Sox to have some positional certainty and place less pressure on multiple prospects hitting at the same time. It also allows them to trade prospects now blocked by Harper or Machado for other pieces they need. Yeah, they could get hurt and cost 30+ million for nothing, but any Sox player could get hurt and be just as (if not more) damaging. You can't base a franchise-impacting personnel decision on "Well Machado could get hit by a bus tomorrow so let's not sign him". That's stupid.